The total volume of the inflow of foreign investments in the Russian economy as of results of nine months of 2006 has grown across all components. Herewith, the direct investments have been increased within January-September of 2006 times 1.5 as compared with the relevant period of 2005. The greatest growth rates of direct investments are noted in the first and third quarters of the current year: in quarter I they have been increased twice versus the relevant period of the preceding year, in quarter III – by 80.6 per cent. In the second quarter the volume of foreign investments was equal to the relevant period of the preceding year. According to the joint research with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the US Columbia University, the growth of direct investments in the Russian economy in 2006 might have reached the peak. The utmost growth across the components of foreign investments in the Russian economy of the current year is observed in the sector of portfolio investments: in the first and second quarters of 2006 they have grown three times as compared with the relevant periods of the preceding year. In the third quarter of 2006 a decline in the level of portfolio investments was noted by 10.7 per cent versus the same quarter of 2005. The greatest growth of inflow of other investments (by 50.3 per cent) was observed in the second quarter of 2006. In the third quarter a decrease of other investments in the Russian economy made 1.2 per cent. Therefore, a diversified dynamics across various components of foreign investments in the Russian economy as broken down by quarters demonstrates the following changes:
In 2006 the level of foreign investments in industries and trade has been sustained, though the investments in trade have been reduced by 14 per cent as per results of the nine months of the current year. The greatest growth rates of foreign investments were observed in 2006 in transportation and communications and in the real estate transactions as well.
Portfolio investments 1 кв.3 кв.1 кв.3 кв.1 кв.3 кв.1 кв.3 кв.1 кв.3 кв.1 кв.3 кв.1 кв.3 кв.1 кв.3 кв.Table Structure of Foreign Investments in Russian Economy with a Brake-Down by Sectors in January-September 2004- $, mln % vs. previous year % to total 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 Industries 14 282 12 410 17 465 88,4 - 13,1 40,7 49,0 46,1 49,Transportation and communica1 489 2253 4 381 68,8 51,3 94,5 5,1 8,4 12,tions Trade and catering 9 557 8586 7 381 6,8 - 10,2 -14,0 32,8 32,0 20,Market commercial services 1 133 1823 3151 - 42,1 60,9 72,8 3,9 6,8 8,Finances, credit, insurance, pension 691 1376 2060 в 3,1 р. 99,1 49,7 2,4 5,1 5,services Other sectors 1 983 381 885 51,8 - 80,8 в 2,3 р. 6,8 1,4 2,Source: Rosstat.
The higher growth rate of foreign investments in the Russian industries in 2006 as compared with the relevant aggregate indicators is a positive factor; the greatest growth rate is observed in energy (plus 84.7 per cent versus January-September 2005). In 2005 a decrease by 45.3 per cent was noted versus the level of January-September 2004. Foreign investments in processing industries within the period under review have grown by 19.6 per cent. The investments in chemical production and food industry have grown over 40 per cent and reached USD 946 bln and USD 909 bln accordingly.
A quarterly analysis of the dynamics of foreign investments as per industries demonstrates a relatively sustainable aggregate growth rates in the background of diversified changes across various industries and its impact on the quarterly structure of foreign investments in industries in 2006.
Structure of Foreign Investments as per Industries in 2006 (Relevant Data for 2005 is Presented in Brackets) 5,4% (6,5%) 9 months. 2006 г. 40,8% (31,1%) 15,2% (21,9%) 38,6% (40,6%) 5,2% (4,9%) 3 Q. 2006 г. 28,5% (37,7%) 19,0% (16,6%) 47,2% (40,8%) 6,0% (6,4%) 2 Q. 2006 г. 45,0% (26,7%) 13,0% (27,4%) 36,0% (39,5%) 5,0% (8,6%) 1 Q 2006 г. 50,2% (28,5%) 13,4% (21,1%) 31,5% (41,8%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Energy Metallurgy Chemistry Other industries Source: Rosstat.
Foreign investments in the industries in the first and second quarters of the current year have grown versus similar perdiods of 2005 times 2.7 and 2.2 accordingly. In the third quarter their growth made 5.6 per cent. Nevertheless, foreign investments in metallurgy within the first half-year of 2006 were decreased (by 1.0 per cent in the first quarter and by 37.4 per cent in the second quarter), but they have grown by 59.3 per cent in the third quarter. The incentives of foreign investors in chemical industry have also decreased in the first quarter of 2006 (the investments in this industry were declined by 9.7 per cent), though in the second and third quarters they have grown up by 23.1 per cent and 45.2 per cent accordingly.
Unlike aggregate foreign investments’ growth rates, the direct investments growth rates in mineral extracting and processing industries were lower than the relevant indicators in those industries of previous years. The share of direct investments in the industries has been decreased from с 37.6 per cent in January September of 2005 to 36.7 per cent in January-September of 2006; the share of other investments within the given period has grown from 60.4 per cent to 61.9 per cent.
Quarterly dynamics demonstrates noticeable differences in the structure of foreign investments in industries in the current year. Thus, the share of direct investments has been reduced from 56.2 per cent in the first quarter to 29.1 per cent in the third quarter. On the contrary, the share of other investments has grown from 40.3 per cent to 69.7 per cent.
Structure of Foreign Investments in the Russian Economy within 2003-90% 4,0% 80% 3,5% 70% 3,0% 60% 2,5% 50% 2,0% 40% 1,5% 30% 1,0% 20% 0,5% 10% 0% 0,0% Direct Investments Прочие инвестиции Portfolio Investments Source: Rosstat.
In general, the structure of foreign investments in industries as per results of the nine months of 2006 has practically not changed, though there were noted some changes in the structure of foreign investments across the industrial sectors.
Structure of Foreign Investments as per Industries within January-September of 2006 (Relevant Data for January-September of 2005 is Presented in Brackets) 0,0% (1,1%) 60,1% (79,7%) 39,9% (19,2%) Extraction of energy sources 5,0% (0,3%) 4,3% (5,1%) 90,7% (94,6%) Metallurgy 0,5% (4,4%) Химическая 22,7% (21,1%) 76,7% (74,5%),, 3,3% (3,3%) Other industries 25,7% (25,5%) 71,0% (71,1%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Direct Investments Portfolio Investments Other Investments Source: Rosstat.
In the Russian regions a considerable growth of inflow of foreign investments was observed. As per results of the first half-year of 2006, the investments in Moscow have been raised by 41.7 per cent, having maintained the share in the structure of the total foreign investments’ amount for the relevant period at the level of 37.4 per cent. Within January-September of 2006 the investments in Tatarstan have been increased to USD 251.7 mln (plus 49.8 per cent versus January-September of 2005). Herewith, the direct investments in Tatarstan within the relevant period have grown times 3.5. Within nine months of 2006 the investments in Karelia have grown times 14.3, having reached USD 255.9 mln, in Novgorod region – by 40.9 per cent up to USD 170 mln, in Chelyabinsk region the investments made USD 1 bln (the growth made over 200 per cent within the recent three years).
Like in 2005, the leading position in the structure of foreign investments in terms of geography within the nine months of 2006 made Great Britain (15.5per cent of the total volume of foreign investments, entered into the Russian economy within the period under review (18.6 per cent within January-September of 2005).
Portfolio Investments 1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.The second place is taken by Netherlands (14.7 per cent) as compared with per cent of the total volume within January-September of 2005 – 15.1 per cent).
For the second year in a row a reduction of investments form Luxemburg is observed. Their reduction is estimated in 56.7 per cent (to USD 1570 mln in January-September of 2005, up to 46.3 per cent). Herewith, the investments from France have grown times 4.7 (up to USD 2533 mln), Netherlands have enlarged their investments in the RF by 28.1 per cent (to USD 5196 mln), Germany – by 42.8 per cent (to USD 1982 mln), Cyprus – by 59.3 per cent (to USD 5186 mln). The difference in the dynamics of the investments have resulted in the amendment of the structure of foreign investments in the Russian economy in terms of geography. The share of Luxemburg investments has been decreased from 13.5 per cent in 2005 to 5.6 per cent as of results of the nine months of 2006, the share of France has grown from 2.0 per cent to 7.2 per cent.
Herewith, the shares of USA and Germany have not practically changed and remained at the level of 3.5 per cent and 5.6 per cent (for January-September 2005, or 4.3 per cent and 5. 2 per cent accordingly).
Table Inflow of Foreign Investments in the RF in 2006 as Broken Down by Countries Changes, per cent versus relevant Inflow, USD mln % versus total period of preceding year (2005) Q. I Q. II Q. III Q. I Q. II Q. III Q. I Q. II Q. III USA 327 440 453 135 2 -24 3.7 30 3.Germany 836 495 651 222 4 0 9.5 34 5.Great Britain 766 3240 1473 42 44 -33 8,7 22,2 12,Cyprus 1350 1115 2721 38 22 99 15,4 7,6 22,Netherlands 1107 2719 1370 12 49 11 12,6 18,6 11,Luxemburg 501 841 228 -48 -57 -69 5,7 5,7 1,Other countries 3902 5777 5011 80 119 42 44,4 39,5 42,Source: Rosstat.
In 2006 the shift of the investors’ priorities in terms of industries was continued. The investments form Great Britain have been reduced in metallurgy (from 10.1 per cent within January-September of 2005 to 4. per cent in January-September of 2006). The trade sector, as before, remains attractive to the investors for Great Britain; 50 per cent of the total investments in the RF are addressed to this sphere (versus 58 per cent within January-September 2005), 11.5 per cent is invested in coke and oil products production.
In the structure of Netherlands’ investments to the RF the share of energy and power resources has been reduced from 70.8per cent within January-September of 2005 to 50.7 per cent within January-September of 2006. Within nine months of 2006 there were addressed 2.2 per cent of aggregate investments inflow from Netherlands to the RF economy.
The priority sector for the investors form France in the current year became the extraction of mineral resources, where they have invested 54.7 per cent of the total investments within nine months of 2006. The share of French investments into metallurgy has been reduced from 54.3 per cent within January-September of 2005 to 24.7 per cent within January-September of 2006.
As of January-September 2006 results, the leading positions in the total amount of foreign investments are taken by Cyprus, Netherlands, Luxemburg, Great Britain and Germany, whose share made 70.7 per cent, like within January-September of 2005. At the same time, the share of the first five countries-investors in the sphere of direct investments has grown to 71.0 per cent (versus 70,7 per cent. within January-September of 2005 г. – 68.2per cent), in the structure of portfolio and other investments it has been reduced to 46.5 per cent (versus 52.7 per cent within January-September of 2005) and to 71.3 per cent (versus 73.3 per cent within January-September of 2005).
In the background of considerable growth of foreign investments in the Russian economy one should note an expressed growth of the capital outflow. Thus, in the nine months of 2006, USD 29.3 bln of assets transferred outside the country (out of the investors’ revenue and credit interest), what is times 1.8 exceeds the level of the relevant period of the preceding year. Herewith, the greatest outflow of capital was noticed in the third quarter of 2006 (96.1 per cent of foreign investments received within the period under review). All in all, within nine months of 2006 the outflow of foreign investments have made 82.8 per cent of the total amount of the inflow.
E.M.Ilyukhina Real economy sector: trends and factors The characteristic feature of 2006 was the acceleration of the economic growth rates under the positive influence of the external economic environment. The increase in business activity was based on the anticipating increase in investments in comparison with the final consumption dynamics and had the most significant impact on the nature of structural changes of produced and used GDP. The investments in fixed assets increased by 12.9% within January and November 2006, retail trade turnover - by 12.8%, real income of population – by 10.1%.
According to the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade estimations, the expected growth of GDP in 2006 will be 106.8% under the increase in investments to the fixed capital of 13.2% and retail trade turnover of 12.8%.
The characteristic feature of 2006 was the acceleration of the economic growth rates under the positive influence of the external economic environment. The increase in business activity was based on the anticipating increase in investments in comparison with the final consumption dynamics and had the most significant impact on the nature of structural changes of produced and used GDP. The increase in GDP in JanuarySeptember 2006 being 6.5%, the real final consumption of households went up by 12.3% and investments in fixed capital - by 11.3%. In October-November 2006 a sharp increase in business activity in the construction sector was noted, leading to the increase in investments in fixed assets of 12.9% as a result of the period within January and November in comparison with 10.5% in the similar period of the previous year. This gave grounds for reconsidering national measures up to the year-end. According to the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade estimations, the expected growth of GDP in 2006 will be 106.8% the increase in investments to the fixed capital being 13.2% and retail trade turnover - 12.8%.
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