roubles 01.10.16.10.188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.30.12.14.01.29.01.13.02.28.02.15.03.30.03.14.04.29.04.14.05.29.05.13.06.28.06.13.07.28.07.12.08.27.08.11.09.26.09.11.10.220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.USD/EURO 01.10.31.10.22.214.171.124.29.01.28.02.30.03.29.04.29.05.28.06.28.07.27.08.26.09.26.10.126.96.36.199.The banking sector ruble liquidity in December of the current year has shown a noticeable growth against November indicators: the average balance of credit agencies’ correspondent accounts in the Bank of Russia in December was about RUR 44.4 bln against November indicator of about RUR 337.14 bln.
From December 1 to 25 Euro rate in the world market has decreased by USD 0.005 (- 0.44 per cent) and reached the level of USD 1.3133 for EURO 1. Despite this fact, in December some growth was observed of EURO against RUR. In the period from December 1 to 23 that rate has been raised by RUR 0.018 (0.053 per cent). The total volume of trading in EURO on SELT in the period from December 1 to 20 amounted to EURO 742 mln at an average daily turnover of EURO 45.53 mln. Therefore, maximum trading activity of EURO in the Russian foreign currency market within the period under review was noted at the level of EURO 80.6 mln on December 14, minimum – EURO 38.74 on December 8.
Financial market indicators/indices Month August September October November December * Monthly inflation 0,2% 0,1% 0,3% 0,6% 0,9% Estimated annual inflation given the current month 2,43% 1,21% 3,66% 7,44% 11,3% trend Russian Central Bank refinancing rate 11,5% 11,5% 11% 11% 11% Average yield to maturity for all OFZ bond issues 6,18% 6,07% 6,1% (% per annum) Monthly turnover on the GKO-OFZ market (RUR 49,79 45,32 20,bln) Minfin bond yield to maturity at end of month (% per annum):
tranche 5 5,59% 5,54% 5,18% 5,38% 5,5% tranche 7 5,64% 5,43% 5,50% 5,42% 5,4% tranche 8 4,60% 4,22% 4,17% 5,30% 5,6% Eurobond yield to maturity at the end of month (% per annum):
2007 5,57% 5,35% 5,47% 5,28% 5,0% 2010 5,54% 5,05% 5,24% 5,43% 5,7% 2018 5,88% 5,80% 5,87% 5,69% 5,6% 2028 6,21% 6,13% 6,15% 6,03% 5,9% 2030 5,74% 5,70% 5,71% 5,52% 5,5% Interbank credit-MIACR rate (% per annum at end 3,15% 4,75% 9,82% 7,21% 6,0% of month) on 1-day loans Official RUR to USD exchange rate at the end of 26,7379 26,7799 26,7477 26,3147 26,month (RUR/USD) Official RUR to Euro exchange rate at the end of 34,3127 33,9783 34,0284 34,6775 34,month (RUR/EUR) Change in the official RUR/USD exchange rate in -0,50% 0,16% -0,12% -1,62% 0,3% one month (%) Change in the official RUR/Euro exchange rate in 0,60% -0,97% 0,15% 1,91% 0,1% one month (%) RTS stock market turnover in one month (in USD 941,96 759,60 907,19 1175,mln, for shares on the RTS index list) RTS-1 index at the end of month 1659,66 1563,19 1613,57 1776,Change in RTS-1 index in one month (%) 6,02% -5,81% 3,22% 10,11% * Estimated data D. Polevoy Investments in Real Sector of Economy In January- September 2006 the amount of investments in fixed assets went up by 11.7% against 9.8% in the preceding year, while the share of investments in the fixed assets was 16.5%.
Fundamentally new feature of the economic growth in 2006 was the shift from the investments in fixed assets financed at the expense of the business’ and organisations’ own capital to the expansion of debt capital share. In contrast to 2005 that was the increase in banks’ share of investment financing from 6.5% to 9.3% that was observed. Foreign banks credit share in investments in fixed assets financing has grown by 1.8% against 1.1% growth throughout January-September 2005, foreign investment share being 7.3% against 5.3%.
Due to the steady positive dynamics of production in 2006 the situation in investment sector has changed.
The increase in investment demand proceeded in the environment of, on the one hand, favorable change in price for hydrocarbon and mineral raw materials in world markets and, on the other hand, active strategy of Russian business at the domestic market. In January-September 2006 the amount of investments in fixes assets increased by 11.7% against 9.8% in the previous year, and the share of investments in fixed assets was 16.5%.
Along with the increase in economy’s revenue the tendency for the budget assets share in the structure of financial sources of investments in fixed assets has retrieved. In January-September 2006 the investments of RUR 369,0 billion were financed by budget funds, including RUR 123,3 billion by the Federal budget.
Structure of Investments in the Fixed Assets as per Financial Sources, in % vs total 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 JanuarySeptember 2005 Investments in fixed assets - total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 including a break-down by sources of investment:
Own capital 47,7 49,4 48,0 46,2 46,8 47,7 47,5 45, including:
Bank credits 2,9 4,4 4,8 5,2 7,3 6,5 6,5 9, Among them foreign bank loans 0,6 0,9 0,5 0,8 1,3 1,0 1,1 1, Loans from other organisations 7,2 4,9 6,0 8,6 7,3 7,3 7,9 5, Budget funds: 22,0 20,4 19,6 18,8 17,4 20,1 18,7 17, Federal Budget funds 6,0 5,8 6,0 6,5 5,1 6,7 6,0 5, Funds from the subjects of the Russian Federation budgets and local budgets 16,0 14,6 13,6 11,5 11,3 12,4 11,8 10,Share of foreign investments in total investments in fixed assets 4,7 4,5 4,1 4,7 5,0 4,8 5,3 7,Source: Rosstat.
The characteristic feature of 2005-2006 period was the change in Federal budget funds vs. budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation funds ratio. The tendency for the diminishing of the budget funds share in investments in fixed assets financing, which had been formed against the background of the ratio change with the extension of regional budgets’ participation in investments in fixed assets financing and the reserved dynamics of the budget expenses for the investment purposes, prevailed for a long time in the Russian economy. In 2005 the anticipating growth of investments in fixed assets at the expense of the Federal budget funds had a significant impact on the investment process. The share of the budget funds, which was used for the investments in fixed assets, was 2.5% of GDP in 2005 against 2.32% of GDP in 2004, including the Federal budget funds being, respectively, 0.83% against 0.68%,. As a result of January-September structural characteristics of investment in fixed assets financing in GDP remain at the level of previous year figures.
64,61,61,70,60,50,33,33,40,29,30,4,5,5,20,10,0,2004 2005 federal budget budgets of the Subjects of the Russian Federation budgets of the other levels of administration Figure 1 Financing structures of investments in the fixed assets at the expense of the budget funds in 2004-2006% vs total Federal Targeted Investment Program (FTIP) is a part of the capital expenditure of the Federal Budget of the Russian Federation for the next financial year. FTIP is formed on the basis of the capital investments amount, which is directed for the realization of the federal targeted programs and for the solution of individual social and economic problems of great importance which were not included in these programs.
In 2006 the planned amount of the public investments was equal to1.3% of GDP and 7.5% of the federal budget expenses. The amount of the public investments in 2005 formed 1.16% of GDP against 0.5% of GDP in 2004, and 7.1% against 3.2% of the Federal budget expenses, respectively. The characteristic feature of the public investments structure in 2005 in comparison with the previous year was a sharp shift of priorities towards production sphere with the reserved support of the social sphere. In 2006 while the planned increase in the state share of investments was 5 percentage points, the investment rates remained among the positive values. According to Rosstat data, public investment limit, allocated for 2006, was RUR 150.4 billion, and the investment use at the expense of all financial sources for construction projects, envisaged by FTIP, was RUR 104,2 billion throughout January-September 2006. The level of finance of the public investments yearly limit was RUR 76,6 billion or 50,9% of yearly limit.
The growth of economy revenues, population savings and the increase in business activity of the bank sector had a positive impact on the nature of investment activity. Fundamentally new feature of the economic growth in 2006 was the shift from the investments in fixed assets financed at the expense of the business’ and organizations’ own capital to the expansion of debt capital share. This was a graphic evidence of qualitative changes in investment development mechanism, which is oriented on investment resources flow rationalization. In 2006 the share of inflow funds was 54.9% of total amount of investments in fixed assets within January-September, which is 2,4 percentage points higher than the level of the corresponding period of the previous year.
In contrast to 2005 the increase in banks’ share of investment financing from 6.5% to 9.3% was observed.
Against the background of the high bank sector activity the trend for the increase of insurance, investment, industrial and trade companies as well as foreign investment participation in investment activity financing sustained. Foreign banks credit share in investments in fixed assets financing has grown by 1.8% against 1.1% in January-September 2005, foreign investment ratio being 7.3% against 5.3%.
Among the factors that positively influence credit dynamics and the participation of loan funds from other organizations, the growth of organized savings of population can be highlighted. The reduction in the amount of cash foreign currency and its exchange for rubles was accompanied by the increase in deposit figures in banking organizations. Low real value of credit resources along with an average profitability value, existing in the economy, accounted for the extension of the number of enterprise debtors in the sector of economy, which is orientated on the internal market.
In January-September 2006 the trend for advance growth of investments in fixed assets in transport and communication (112,7%) sustained, the recovery of the positive dynamics of investment activity in trade was observed. The peculiarity of 2006 was the overcoming of the tendency to reduce the share of invest ments into mineral resources extraction, which had been observed since 2002. As a result of the period within January-September 2006 the increase in investments in mineral resources extraction was 28.8% against the decrease of 1.5% in the corresponding period of 2005. Investments in energy, gas and water production and distribution increased by 1.1% in comparison with January-September 2005, and in manufacturing/processing industries - by 5.8% in comparison with 16.9%.
The share of manufacturing industries in the structure of the investments in fixed assets in industry was 17.5% in 2006 against 19.0% in the corresponding period of the previous year, but it remained at the level of 1.3 percentage points higher than the average figure for the period within 2002-2005. Since traditionally high income concentration stays among the export-orientated production and there are no mechanisms of inter-industry flow of investments, it could have been hardly expected that the investment rates would grow and there would be fundamental changes in the nature of fixed assets reproduction.
Table Structure of investments in the fixed assets with a break-down by types of economic activities, in % vs. the total amount of investments in economy January-September 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 Investment in the fixed assets-total 100 100 100 100 100 among them industry 38,6 38,1 38,4 36,8 43,7 43,Extraction of mineral resources 16,9 15,9 14,8 13,4 16,5 19,Extraction of fuel and power resources 15,5 14,4 13,4 11,8 14,6 17,Extraction of resources, except for fuel and power resources 1,4 1,5 1,4 1,6 1,9 1,Processing industries 15,9 15,6 16,5 16,8 19 17,Production and distribution of energy, gas and water 5,8 6,6 7,1 6,6 8,2 Source: Rosstat All in all as a result of January-September 2006 it can be established, that investment activity development in processing production was of adjusting nature and hasn’t led to qualitative changes. Under existing in the Russian economy disproportions between fixed assets flow, investments expenditures and the dynamics of the domestic machine-building the impact of the dynamic growth of machinery and equipment export on the internal market has increased. Investments in import equipment purchase in January-September were 20.2% of the total amount of investments in machinery, equipment and transport vehicles.
The effective growth of the Russian economy substantially depends on the intensity of change in investment structures for the benefit of industries, which are internal market-oriented. The fulfillment of such a trend suggests the solution coordination in the spheres of budget, taxation, rates, customs and money-andcredit policy. The processes of economic structure transformation and the increase in investment attractiveness of the processing production depend especially on the leveling of the investment resources use efficiency due to redistribution of fiscal duties between raw materials sector and non-raw materials sector of economy.
О.I. Izryadnova Foreign Investments in Russian Economy As of the end of September, the accumulated foreign investments in the non-financial sector of the Russian economy (with no regard to the monetary and credit bodies, commercial and savings banks), including RUR investments (denominated in USD), made USD 130 bln, what is by 16.2 per cent exceeds the indicator of January 1, 2006 and by 34.8 per cent – the indicator of October 1, 2005.A similar indicator of the general amount of foreign investments inflow within nine months of 2005, is estimated in USD 35.3 bln.
Table Structure of Foreign Investments in the Russian Economy in January-September of 2002-USD mln % versus preceding year Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other 12 905 2 631 2002 32,8 -9,9 -23,3 54,10 2003 20 899 4 665 81 61,9 77,3 Less by 2,8 р. 60,16 2004 29 135 5 590 227 39,4 19,8 More times 2,8 44,23 2005 26 829 6 602 365 60,5 - 14,19862 - 7,9 18,2006 35 323 10 268 665 31,7 55,5 82,3 22,24 Source: Rosstat.
Structure of Foreign Investments in the Russian Economy in 1999 - 90% 6% 80% 5% 70% 60% 4% 50% 3% 40% 30% 2% 20% 1% 10% 0% 0% Direct Investments Other investments Portfolio investments Source: Rosstat.
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