WWW.DISSERS.RU


...
    !

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 4 | 5 || 7 | 8 |   ...   | 12 |

Table The dynamics of foreign investments in 2003-Changes, as percentage of same period of previous year Total Direct Portfolio Other Q 1, 2003 65.4 24.7 -79.5 81.Q 2, 2003 39.6 43.7 -82.0 42.Q 3, 2003 81.6 180.9 72.0 61.Q 4, 2003 28.0 54.3 29.0 21.Q 1, 2004 -1.5 42.7 394.4 -11.Q 2, 2004 100.4 30.2 100.0 122.Q 3, 2004 23.2 1.5 127.9 30.Q 4, 2004 29.3 81.0 -66.9 16.Q 1, 2005 -2.4 30.0 -10.1 -12.Q 2, 2005 -18.2 31.7 137.5 -27.Q 3, 2005 1.7 -2.3 93.9 1.Source: Goskomstat of Russia The total volume of foreign investment attracted into the Russian economy went down, first of all, because of the reduction in the amount of all other reimbursable investments.

In January-September 2005, the rate of foreign investments in the Russian economy remained at the level of the same period of 2004. At the same time, all the other investments did decline, which resulted in changes expressed in a reduction of the share of other investments down to 74 percent (against 80 percent in the first nine months of 2004), and in a growth of the share of direct investments up to 24.6 percent (against 19.2 percent in the first nine months of 2004). At the same time, an analysis of quarterly statistics demonstrates a steady reduction, since early 2005, in the share of direct investments in the structure of foreign investments in the Russian economy.

Table The structure of foreign investments in 2003-As percentage of total Direct Portfolio Other Q 1, 2003 16.5 0.3 83.Q 2, 2003 23.4 0.3 76.Q 3, 2003 25.9 0.5 73.Q 4, 2003 24.0 3.6 72.Q 1, 2004 23.9 1.4 74.Q 2, 2004 15.2 0.3 84.Q 3, 2004 21.3 1.0 77.Q 4, 2004 33.7 0.9 65.Q 1, 2005 31.9 1.3 66.Q 2, 2005 24.5 0.9 74.Q 3, 2005 20.5 1.8 77.Source: Goskomstat of Russia As in the previous year, in 2005 foreign investments remained concentrated in two spheres of the Russian economy in industry and in the sphere of trade, though foreign investments in these branches decreased over the course of the current year. The highest rate of foreign investment were noted in the financial sphere and in real estate business.

Table The branch structure of foreign investments in the Russian economy in January-September 2003- Changes, as percentage In mln USD As percentage of total of previous year 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 Industry 7 581 14 282 12 410 53.2 88.4 - 13.1 36.3 49.0 46.Transport and communications 882 1 489 2253 106.6 68.8 51.3 4.2 5.1 8.Wholesale and retail trade 8 948 9 557 8586 69.1 6.8 - 10.2 42.8 32.8 32.Real estate business, lease, and 1 956 1 133 1823 72.9 - 42.1 60.9 9.4 3.9 6.provision of services Finance, credit, insurance, pension 226 691 1376 115.2 3.1 . 99.1 1.1 2.4 5.provision Other branches 1 306 1 983 381 30.6 51.8 - 80.8 6.2 6.8 1.Source: Goskomstat of Russia By the results of the first nine months of the current year, the largest decline in foreign investments was noted in the fuel industry (- 45 percent, as compared to the level of January-September 2004).

Foreign investments in metallurgy and the food industry declined by 22.1 and 21.4 percent, respectively. At the same time, foreign investments in the chemical industry rose by 38.8 percent against the level of January-September 2004. As regards the fuel industry, according to the data for Quarter 3 of 2005, foreign investments in this branch were reduced only by 4.5 percent against the level of Quarter 3 of 2004. The growth of foreign investments in metallurgy and the chemical industry over the course of this period is estimated at 0.4 and 31.5 percent, respectively.

The differently vectored dynamics of direct and other investments in industry (in JanuarySeptember 2005, the latter decreased by 25.5 percent) resulted in a change of the structure of foreign investments in the Russian economy. Thus, the proportion of direct investments in industry increased from 28.9 percent in January-September 2004 to 37.6 percent in January-September 2005, while the share of other investments dropped during this period from 70.4 to 60.4 percent. While over the course of 2004 the share of direct investments was steadily increasing, the reverse is true for the current year.

Although the quarterly dynamics of investments in industry bear witness to a reduction in the share of direct investments, the rates of its decline are lower than the corresponding indices characterizing the dynamics of aggregate foreign investments during the same periods.

Table The structure of foreign investments in industry in 2003-As percentage of total Direct Portfolio Other Q 1, 2003 26.6 0.8 72.Q 2, 2003 27.1 0.3 72.Q 3, 2003 32.6 0.2 67.Q 4, 2003 25.2 0.6 74.Q 1, 2004 35.5 0.3 64.Q 2, 2004 20.1 0.7 79.Q 3, 2004 40.4 1.0 58.Q 4, 2004 48.6 0.5 50.Q 1, 2005 43.2 2.2 54.Q 2, 2005 36.8 1.9 61.Q 3, 2005 34.3 2.0 63.Source: Goskomstat of Russia In 2005, some changes in the structure of foreign investments by branches of industry were also noted.

The structure of foreign investments in industry in January-September (presented in brackets are the data for January-September 2004) 1,1% Extraction of energy-carrying 79,7% (34,6%) 19,2% (65,4%) mineral resources 0,3% (0,3%) Metallurgy 5,1% (2,7%) 94,6% (97,0%) 4,4% (3,1%),, Chemical industry 21,1% (33,7%) 74,5% (63,1%) 3,3% (2,2%) Other branches 25,5% (44,4%) 71,1% (53,4%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Direct Portfolio Other Source: Goskomstat of Russia There was a considerable increase in the inflow of foreign investment into Russian regions. Thus, in January-September 2005, Leningrad Oblast received 216.2 mln USD in foreign investments (against 161 mln USD over the whole course of 2004), Sverdlovsk Oblast 967 mln USD (or 2.3 times more than in January-September 2004), Samara Oblast 483 mln USD (or 81.5 percent more than in January-September 2004), St. Petersburg 466.5 mln USD (or 13.4 percent more than in JanuarySeptember 2004), and Murmansk Oblast 23.7 mln USD (or 2.2 times more than in JanuarySeptember 2004). In the first nine months of 2005, Moscow Oblast received 2.9 billion USD in investments. By the results of eleven months of 2005, the investments pumped into the Moscow economy by foreign companies amount to 12 billion USD.

As regards the geographical structure of the foreign investments received by the Russian economy in the first nine months of 2005, the undisputed leader is the United Kingdom, followed by the Netherlands. Luxemburg, which held the first place among the exporters of capital into the RF by the results of the first nine months of 2004, shifted to the third place by the results of January-September 2005.

The geographical structure of the foreign investments received by the Russian economy in January-September (presented in brackets are the data for January-September 2004) USA; 4,3% Germany; 5,2% (5,6%) Other counteries;

(4,0%) UK; 18,6% 31,2% (28,4%) (16,7%) Cyprus; 12,1% Luxemburg;

(9,8%) Netherlands;

13,5% (23,2%) 15,1% (12,3%) Source: Goskomstat of Russia In January-September 2005, investors from Luxemburg reduced the amount of their investments in the Russian economy by 46.3 percent, down to 3,630 mln USD, while investments from France reduced three-fold (down to 540 mln USD), and those from the USA dropped by 28.1 percent (down to 1,167 mln USD). At the same time, investors from the Netherlands increased their investments in the RF by 13.0 percent (to 4,055 mln USD), investors from Germany by 18.8 percent (to 1,388 mln USD), investors from Switzerland by 47.5 percent (to 1,546 mln USD), and investors from Cyprus by 14.2 percent (to 3,255 mln USD).

Table The incoming of foreign investments in the RF, by major investors countries, in Change, as proportion of correReceived, in mln USD. As percentage of total sponding period of Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 1 Q 2 Q USA 139 430 598 -50.4 -54.1 46.6 2.3 4.1 5.14.Germany 260 475 653 -67.1 times 89.3 4.3 4.5 6.more UK 541 2256 2206 -28.5 5.4 12.7 9.0 21.5 21.Cyprus 975 913 1367 -27.8 -15.8 228.6 16.2 8.7 13.The Netherlands 986 1830 1239 21.0 57.4 -23.0 16.4 17.5 12.14.Luxemburg 955 1944 731 times -51.9 -72.4 15.9 18.5 7.more Other countries 2165 2634 3532 2.4 -22.8 27.7 36.0 25.1 34.Source: Goskomstat of Russia In 2005, there was noted a continuing shift in the branch priorities of foreign investors. In JanuarySeptember 2004, UK entrepreneurs invested their capital mainly in the sphere of trade (42.3 percent of their aggregate investments), metallurgy (27.4 percent), communications, and the commercial activity related to maintaining the functioning of the market (by 8.5 percent, respectively), whereas by the results of the first nine months of 2005, the share of trade in the aggregate investments from the UK received by the RF grew to 58 percent, while those of metallurgy and communications reduced to 10.and 4.6 percent, respectively. As regards the chemical industry, it received 4.4 percent of UK investments.

Investors from the Netherlands concentrated their attention on the extraction of energy-carrying mineral resources; in January-September 2005, this sphere received 70.8 percent of Dutch investments in the RF (by the results of the first nine months of 2004, the share of this branch amounted to 65.percent). In the first nine months of 2005, metallurgy and communications received 10.3 and 6.4 percent of Dutch investments, respectively.

In January-September 2005, the most pronounced shift in priorities was noted on the part of investors from Luxemburg. By the results of January-September 2004, the extraction industry received 51.percent of aggregate investments from Luxemburg, while in the first nine months of 2005 this index dropped to 11.4 percent. At the same time, investments in the spheres of trade and communications grew from 40.1 and 7.1 percent to 53.1 and 30.3 percent, respectively.

In JanuarySeptember 2005, the new priority branch for investors from France was metallurgy, which received 54.3 percent of the French aggregate investments attracted by the RF in the first nine months of 2005. By contrast, according to the results of the first nine months of 2004, the major sphere of French investors interests was trade and public catering, which attracted 59.8 percent of French aggregate investments, while metallurgy received only 7.2 percent of the latter.

By the results of January-September 2005, the countries at the very top of the list of foreign investors are Cyprus, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Germany, whose share in the total volume of accumulated foreign investments amounts to 70.7 percent (against 64.8 percent in January-September 2004). The five leading investor countries also account for 68.2 percent of direct investments (against 59.0 percent in January-September 2004), 57.2 percent of portfolio investments (against 51.3 percent in January-September 2004), and 73.3 percent of the other investments (against 69.3 percent in January-September 2004).

The growth of confidence on the part of foreign investors is confirmed by Russias rating in the FDI Confidence Index published in November 2005 by the consulting company Kearney12. In the current year, Russia ranks 6th for the first time (in 2004, it ranked 11th, in 2003 8th, in 2002 17th, and in 2001 32nd ).

Ye. M. Iliukhina The real sector of the economy: factors and trends In the year 2005, a diminishing growth intensity was registered in almost all the spheres of business activity. Industrial production growth in January through November 2005 was 4.0 %, that of construction works 9.0%, transport cargo turnover 2.7 %. A typical feature in 2005 was the accelerated growth in consumer demand, as compared to the dynamics demonstrated by investment demand. On the whole, during January through November 2005, the retail trade turnover increased, as compared to the same period of the previous year, by 11.8 %, that of commercial services rendered to the population by 7.2 %, while investments in fixed assets grew by 10.2 %.

The forecast values of macroeconomic indices in the period until the end of the year, as calculated by the IET, have shown that the expected GDP growth is 106.4 %, that of investments in fixed assets 110.3 %, and that of industrial production - 104.1%.

The economic situation in 2005 was developing against the background of a decreasing dynamics of the physical volumes of exports and domestic investment demand. The growth rate of commodities exports in physical terms in January through October 2005 was 103.7%, against 110.3% in the same period of the previous year, while that of investments in fixed assets amounted to 110.2 %, against 111.1 %, respectively. The structural shifts on the domestic market were determined by an intensive expansion of the end-product consumption by households. The dynamic growth of effective demand is being sustained by increasing incomes of the population. The populations real incomes since September 2005 have been demonstrating an accelerated trajectory of growth, as compared to the previous The rating characterizes the investment attractiveness of the countries of the world, and does not reflects the current volume of direct investments, but only the attitudes and intentions of investors.

years dynamics. In January through November 2005 the populations incomes went up by 9.1 % against 8.4 % in 2004, real wages - by 9.1%, and established pensions in real terms by 8.9 %. The populations increasing effective demand was also positively influenced by growing scopes of consumer crediting. Banking credits to the population in January through October 2005 grew by 57.4%, and in Quarter III almost a half of the growth in the populations consumption expenditures was due to credits, against only 30% in the same period of the previous year. On the whole, in January through November 2005, the turnover of retail trade increased by 11.8 %,the volume of commercial services by 7.2%.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 --Gross domestic product end-product consumption by households investments in fixed assets -Figure. Changes in the dynamics of GDP, by components of end-product demand in 1999-2005, as percentage of the same quarter of previous year The increasing commodities turnover in 2005, as in the previous years, was predominantly being influenced by the accelerated growth of the non-food commodities market. Alongside the growth of retail trade turnover by 11.8 %, as compared to the period from January through November 2004, the sales of food commodities increased by 10.3 %, and the sales of non-food commodities by 13.2 %.

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 4 | 5 || 7 | 8 |   ...   | 12 |



2011 www.dissers.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .