In the structure of the sources of financing for the investments in fixed assets, an expanding participation of attracted resources was seen. In the period of January through September 2005, the share of attracted resources amounted to 52.5% of the total volume of investments in fixed assets. The structure of investments by types of economic activity was being formed against the background of a dynamic growth of investments in infrastructure development and in the processing industries, alongside decreasing rates of investments in the extraction of fuel and energy resources.
During January through November 2005, the volume of investments in fixed assets was 2871.4 billion roubles, or by 9.9% more than in the same period of the previous year. A new feature of economic growth was represented by a shift from financing the investments made by enterprises and organizations in fixed assets from their own resources toward increasing the share of borrowed funds. In January through September 2005 the share of borrowed funds constituted 52.5% in the total volume of investments in fixed assets, which corresponded to the level achieved in the year 2000, which saw the record high of the total period of rehabilitative growth.
In contrast to the period of January through September 2004, the structure of investment resources demonstrated an increased share of budget funds in the financing of investment expenditures - by 1.p. p., induced by investment growth at the expense of the funds of the federal budget. The share of banks in crediting the investments in January through September 2005 amounted 6.5%, having gone down by 1.2 p. p. in comparison with the same period of the previous year. The low real value of credit resources, in face of the average profitability level as seen in the economy, resulted in growing numbers of borrower enterprises in the domestically oriented sector. Among the factors which were positively influencing the dynamics of credits and borrowings from other organizations, one can point out the conversion of USD-denominated savings of the population into rouble-denominated savings, as well as growing volumes of rouble-denominated deposits and funds placed with the banking structures.
Despite the slowing-down rates of economic development, the interest of foreign investors in the Russian market is as strong as ever. The volume of accumulated foreign capital by late September 2005 was $ 96.5 billion, while the share of foreign investments in the total volume of investments in the national economy remained approximately at the same level as in the previous year, having amounted to 5.3%. No doubt that the existing complex situation in the business sphere and the lack of proper trust in the Russian institutions and the protection of property rights all result, for foreign banks, in higher risks associated with the granting of borrowings. On 15 December 2005, the international rating agency “Standard & Poor's” announced that long-term sovereign credit ratings of the Russian Federation in respect to her liabilities denominated in foreign currencies and in the national currency went up. According to experts, the higher ratings reflect the strengthening of the country’s financial power as a result of an extraordinary upsurge of oil prices, as well as of the successful administrative strategy of debt repayment. The ratings’ changes are forecasted as “stable”. In face of a dynamic growth of the incomes from oil and gas exports, for the international banking community to maintain high investment rates is quite justified from the point of view of geographical diversification of their activity. Although the amount of foreign investments flown in the period of January through September 2005 into the Russian economy was by 7.,9% less than in the same period of the previous year, direct investments went up by 18.1%, while their share in the total volume of foreign investments increased from 19.2% to 24.6%. The trends toward growth displayed by direct investments reflect the response of foreign investors to the improved components of Russia’s investment climate and to the reforms being implemented..
Table The structure of investments in fixed assets, by sources of financing, as a percentage of the total result 2003 2004 January - September 2004 Investments in fixed assets, total 100 100 100 including by sources of financing:
bank credits 5.2 7.3 7.7 6. including from foreign banks 0.8 1.3 1.4 1. borrowings from other organizations 8.6 7.3 7.3 7. budget funds: 18.8 17.4 16.9 18. from federal budget 6.5 5.1 4.9 6. from budgets of subjects of the Russian Federation and local budgets 11.5 11.3 11.8 10.Of total volume of investments in fixed as- sets, investments from abroad 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.Source: Rosstat The dynamics of investment demand in 2005 was determined by the joint effect of factors responsible for changes in the sectoral, technological and reproductive structure of the national economy. The redistribution of investment flows was accompanied by an increasing role of the services sector. The share of investments in transport and communications in the total volume of investments in fixed assets in January through September 2005 constituted 25.4%, having gone up by 0.6 as compared to the same period of the previous year. The changes in the structure of investments in transport were induced by the accelerated growth of investments in railway transport (127.5%), by comparison with transport via pipelines (116.1%). It should be noted that, in face of a stable growth in the demand for communications services in January through September 2005, after a long-term positive dynamics of investments in the development of communications, a slowdown in the rate of this growth by 7.9% was seen.
financial activity communications transport and communications w holesale and retail trade construction processing industries extraction of mineral resources fishing, fish-breeding agriculture Investments, total -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Figure. Changes in the growth rate of investments in fixed assets, by type of economic activity, in January through September 2005, as a percentage of the same period of the previous year The share of investments in fixed assets in the commodities-producing sectors in the year 2005 remained approximately at the same level as in the previous year and constituted 50.6%. This was caused by the rather moderate growth of investments in industry, as compared to construction. It is noteworthy that, by comparison with the year 2004, a slowdown in the rate of investment activity in the exports-oriented extraction sector was seen, alongside a growing role of the processing industries oriented at the domestic market. In 2005, the growth of investments in the processing industries amounted to 16.9%, while the growth rate of investments in the extracting industries went down by 2.5% The structure of investments in the extraction of mineral resources was being formed against the background of a slowdown, by 5.3%, in the rate of investments in the extraction of fuel and energy resources, and an acceleration, by 34.0%, of investments in the extraction of metal ores and other natural resources. Although in early 2005 the growth of investments in oil extraction increased by almost one-third, as compared to Quarter I of 2004, this did not result in obliterating the negative effects of the low rates of investment activity seen in the previous year. The dynamics of gas extraction was to a significant degree influenced by an absolute reduction in the volumes of investments by 1.7%, as compared to the period of January through August 2004, according to the “Gazprom”s data. The greater fall in the share of investments in gas extraction was induced by the priorities of investment activity shifting toward the development of the pipeline network.
The increasing share of investments in the processing industries in 2005 was determined by accelerating rates of investments in metallurgical production and finished products of metallurgy - by 38.7% as compared to January through September 2004; those in chemical production – by 32.1%; those in food production - by 19.6%.
However, while the investment activity in food production was promoted by a growing demand on the domestic market, the main influencing factor in metallurgy, as before, was represented by a growing demand for the products of metallurgy and metal finished products on the external market. It should be noted that, while metallurgy was demonstrating a simultaneous increase in the investments in both the extracting and processing industries, one of the most important problems faced by the fueland-energy production was, as before, the downward trend in the investments in oil processing. Also noteworthy is the fact that, against the background of high international prices of hydrocarbons, the low rates of transformation and diversification of the growing exports incomes being invested in the reconstruction, development and modernization of their extraction and procession have a negative effect on the indices of economic growth. The increase, by 17.1%, in the rates of investments in the production of coke and oil, as compared to the period of January through September 2004, proved to be insufficient to alter the role of this sector in the structure of Russian industry.
4,3,2,1,0,-1,-2,-3,-4,-5,Figure. Changes in the structure of investments in fixed assets, by types of economic activity, in January through September, as a percentage of the same period in the year The share of the industries producing capital goods in 2005 constituted approximately 6.0%, and that of the consumer complex’ branches – 8.0% of the total volume of investments in industry. In face of the existing structure of fixed assets in terms of age, technologies and reproduction, the low investment rates represented a restricting factor for the rates of economic growth. A negative effect on the character of economic growth was also produced by the unprecedented falls in the rates of investments in the production of equipment and means of transportation - by 16.8 %, and those in the production of machinery and equipment - by 2.1%, seen in 2005. The difficulties in selecting an appropriate strategy for the development of machine-building and pinpoint support of only some of the production entities result in distortions on the market of investment commodities, as well as in weakening competition. In view of the existing structure of the domestic production of investment commodities, imports remain one of the main sources of fixed assets renovation, as well as of production reconstruction and modernization.
Among the factors capable of having a positive effect on investment activity in the short and medium term, there are: the cheapening of foreign machinery and equipment due to the strengthening real exchange rate of the rouble; changes in tax legislation; and the improving efficiency of tax administration as a result of currently implemented reform.
O. Izriadnova Foreign investments As of late September 2005, accumulated foreign capital in the non-financial sector of the Russian economy, without taking into account the bodies of monetary regulation, as well as commercial and savings banks, including ruble-denominated investments recalculated in terms of US dollars, amounted to approximately 96.47 billion USD, which by 17.7 percent exceeds the index as of January 1, 2005, and by 31.4 percent exceeds the index as of October 1, 2004. The similar index of the general food production timber processing chemical production processing industries coke and oil production metallurgical production pulp and paper production power water production of other non-metals extraction of mineral resources electrical equipment production extraction of fuel and energy resources production of machinery and equipment extraction of mineral resources, without fuel production and distribution of electric power production, transmission and distribution of electric production, transportation and distribution of gas and production of equipment and means of transportation volume of foreign investments attracted throughout the first nine months of 2005 is estimated as equal to 26.8 billion USD.
Table The structure of foreign investments in the Russian economy in January-September 2001-2005.
In mln USD As percentage of previous year Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other 2001 9 721 2 920 292 6 509 23.2 -7.4 4.9 –times more. 39.2002 12 905 2 631 224 10 050 32.8 -9.9 -23.3 54.2003 20 899 4 665 81 16 153 61.9 77.3 2.8-times less. 60.2004 29 135 5 590 227 23 318 39.4 19.8 2.8-times more 44. months 26 829 6 602 365 19862 - 7.9 18.1 60.5 - 14.of Source: Goskomstat of Russia Judging by the results of the first none months of 2005, there was a decline in the amount of foreign investments incoming into the Russian economy against the background of a rising investment rating of Russia as stated by the three leading rating agencies - Fitch, Standard & Poor’s, and Moody’s (at the present time, Russia is in the bottom part of these agencies’ investment scale). At the same time, it should be noted that, despite the decline in the aggregate index, as seen by the results of 9 months of the current year, by 7,9 percent, as compared to January-September 2004, there occurred a rise in foreign investments (by 1.7 percent, as compared to the third quarter of 2004). The reverse situation is observed in the segment of direct investments. While in January-September 2004 the growth in direct foreign investments amounted to 18.1 percent, against the corresponding index for the year 2004, in the third quarter of 2005 direct investments declined by 2.3 percent, as compared to the same index in the third quarter of 2004 (the last time when such a decline in foreign investments throughout a quarter of a year, by comparison with the same period of the previous year, was registered, occurred in the second quarter of 2002, when it amounted to 32.6 percent).
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