Ukos Tatneft Sibneft GMK LUKoil Russia Russia NorNikel RAO UES Mosenergo Rostelekom Sberbank of Surgutneftegas As of 23 December, the five leaders in terms of capitalization on the domestic share market were as follows9: the “LUKoil” – $51.16 billion, the “Surgutneftegas” – $38.5 billion, the RF Sberbank – $25.18 billion, the GMK “Norilskii Nikel” – $19.37 billion, the “Sibneft”– $17.69 billion.
The futures market. In December, the investors’ activity on the RTS futures market (FORTS) became markedly lower, as compared to the November indices. Thus, during the period from 1 through 23 December, the aggregate turnover of the RTS futures and options market amounted to approximately 83.55 billion roubles (164.26 thousand transactions, 4,57 million contracts), against 87.81 billion roubles (203.4 thousand transactions, 5.12 million contracts) in November.
The highest demand displayed by the market participants was for futures: the volume of trade in futures during the period under consideration amounted to 73.98 billion roubles (154.96 thousand transactions and 3.93 million contracts). Options were in much lesser demand – the volume of trade in them amounted to approximately 9.57 billion roubles (9.31 thousand transactions and 643.1 thousand contracts). The peak trade volume on the futures market was 7.22 billion roubles (on 2 December), while the lowest trade volume amounted to 2.36 billion roubles on 21 December.
FIGURE Dynamics of corporate bond indices 122.ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-Corp188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.104.The corporate bonds market.
The month’s beginning was marked by a slight fall in prices on the market of corporate and regional bonds, against the background of a general growth in interest rates on the international debt market, a rather complicated situation as regards the rouble’s liquidity, and the USD’s strengthening on the foreign currency market. Later on, until the month’s third decade, the situation on the secondary market remained rather stable. Activity was mainly observed in the sector of primary placements, where throughout that period rather large placements were made. In this connection, the placements by such big issuers as the “RZhD” and the “Russneft” absorbed a large portion of available liquidity, which had its inevitable impact also on the secondary market. The main bulk of transactions carried out by the participants involved the bonds of Moscow, of Moscow Oblast, and those of natural monopolies. A certain strengthening of the rouble/USD exchange rate, as well as the RF’s increased credit rating, provided further support to the market. Toward the month’s end, the noticeably improved liquidity in the banking sector did not result in any significant changes on the secondary market.
According to the RTS’ data.
01.11.18.11.06.12.23.12.18.01.03.02.21.02.11.03.29.03.14.04.03.05.20.05.07.06.24.06.12.07.28.07.15.08.31.08.16.09.04.10.20.10.08.11.220.127.116.11.Between 1 and 22 December, the price index of the corporate bonds tradable on the MICEX10 went down by 0.35 points (-0,32%), whereas the index of the ten most liquid bonds of the corporate sector grew by 0.02 points (0.02%). During the period under consideration, the aggregate turnover in the corporate bonds section of the MICEX amounted to 11.57 billion roubles, with the average daily turnover being at the level of 680.85 million roubles (as compared to approximately 12.85 billion roubles, with the average daily turnover of 714.02 million roubles, in November). Thus, the trade turnover of Russian corporate bonds went down, as compared to the November indices.
The external factors influencing the changes on the Russian stock market.
The month’s beginning was marked by a change in the short-term trend on the market, produced by the worsening weather in the USA, as well as by the decreased (contrary to expectations) reserves of crude oil. Early in the month the market displayed growth, which, however, by the end of the second week gave way to a fall, after the information concerning the reserves of oil and oil products in the USA was released, having turned out to be better than forecasted. Moreover, after the declarations made by the OPEC’s representatives to the effect that the cartel’s reserve capacities were not going to be supplied on the market, and also that the actual supplies might be lowered to the officially established levels, the oil prices on the auctions in the USA exceeded $ 60 per barrel. From mid-month onward, no further growth was observed. Investors were following the information being released concerning the reserves of oil and oil products in the USA, which in mid-month were as forecasted. At the same time, closer to the month’s end, after the acts of terrorism in Nigeria, as well as the eventual release of the information concerning the reserves of fuel oil, demonstrating that these were reduced by a far greater value than initially forecasted, oil prices once again began to grow.
180% Dow Jones Industrial Average 170% NASDAQ Composite The RTS Index 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% The situation on the international stock markets in December was, as before, rather favorable (see Table 1). The majority of stock indices in developed and developing countries at the month’s end were growing.
This was calculated on the basis of the indices of the corporate bonds tradable on the MICEX, generated by the “Zenit” Bank.
18.104.22.168.10.12.31.12.21.01.11.02.04.03.24.03.14.04.05.05.25.05.15.06.06.07.27.07.17.08.07.09.28.09.19.10.09.11.30.11.21.12.The changes on the US stock market in December were of a mixed nature, and did not produce any significant influence on the Russian market. The macroeconomic statistics was moderately positive, which supported the quotations of US stock. The eventual increase of the interest rate did not have any significant impact on the dynamics of prices, either, having been duly forecasted.
Open Joint-Stock Company GMK “Norilskii Nikel” On 21 November, the Fitch Ratings agency declared that the company was granted the investment credit rating. The GMK “Norilskii Nikel” was granted the long-term credit rating in foreign currencies at the “ÂÂÂ-“ level, with the forecast of the rating changes as being “stable”. Thus, the “Norilskii Nikel” is, at the present moment, the first and only private Russian company with an international investment rating.
Open Joint-Stock Company “Gazprom” In November, based on the decision made by its Board of Directors as of 4 October 2005, the company purchased 22.43% of the shares issued by the Open Joint-Stock Company (OJSC) “Silovye mashiny” (“Power Machines”). The amount of the transaction was $ 101.4 million, the upper margin of the market value, as estimated by the “KPMG” (an independent appraiser) and approved by the Board of Directors, being equal to $ 107 million. Thus, including the shares of the OJSC “Silovye mashiny” owned by the OJSC “Lenenergo”, the “RAO UES Russia” holding accumulated in its possession a blocking parcel of the concern’s shares (25% +1 share).
Behavior of world stock exchange indices Change in month Change from Data as of December 2005 Index value (%)11 year’s beginning (%) RTS (Russia) 1126.09 8.30% 85.34% 10883.27 -0.07% 1.43% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 2249.42 0.45% 4.52% NASDAQ Composite (USA) 1268.66 0.89% 5.54% S&P 500 (USA) 5595.40 2.15% 15.44% FTSE 100 (UK) 5419.05 4.68% 26.27% DAX-30 (Germany) 4757.74 3.99% 23.40% CAC-40 (France) 7497.80 0.95% 29.97% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 15941.37 6.37% 38.41% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 33331.00 6.29% 29.58% Bovespa (Brazil) 17802.28 5.74% 36.70% IPC (Mexico) 1968.12 -3.28% 9.59% IPSA (Chile) 2328.29 0.86% 12.47% Straits Times (Singapore) 1359.53 5.09% 52.12% Seoul Composite (South Korea) 38919.51 6.28% 52.95% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 703.32 5.25% 29.71% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index The currency market. The situation on the Russian currency market was generally rather stable. In the month’s first half, the market was demonstrating a growth in the USD /rouble exchange rate. This growth was promoted by positive statistical data on the state of the US economy being released. The euro’s exchange rate was also growing in respect to the rouble, while the European Central Bank In respect to the levels as of 28 October.
(ECB) increased the base interest rate by 0.25% - to 2.25% per annum. At the same time, the period of growth was not long, because it became obvious, according to the comments made by the monetary authorities of the Euro zone, that no further increase of the rates of interest was planned.
Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2004-40.39.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 38.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 22.214.171.124.126.96.36.199.29.28.27.FIGURE 8.
Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 188.8.131.52.1.1.roubles 02.11.17.11.02.12.17.12.01.01.16.01.31.01.15.02.02.03.17.03.01.04.16.04.01.05.16.05.31.05.15.06.30.06.15.07.30.07.14.08.29.08.13.09.28.09.13.10.184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11.USD/EURO 01.11.01.12.31.12.30.01.01.03.31.03.30.04.30.05.29.06.29.07.28.08.27.09.18.104.22.168.Table 2.
Indices of financial markets Month August September October November December * monthly rate of inflation -0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 1.1% estimated, annual rate of inflation in accordance -1.19% 3.66% 7.44% 8.73% 14.0% with the tendency in given month refinancing interest rate of RF CB 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% average yield to maturity of OFZ, all issues (% per 7.03% 6.60% 6.55% 6.55% 6.5% year) turnover of GKO-OFZ market for given month 49.09 54.13 33.04 24.58 33.(bln. roubles) yield to maturity of Minfin bonds by end of month (% per year):
Tranche 5 4.96% 4.89% 5.37% 5.26% 5.3% Tranche 6 4.13% 4.40% 4.91% 4.77% 4.7% Tranche 7 5.24% 5.13% 5.73% 5.29% 5.4% Tranche 8 4.33% 4.14% 4.58% 4.58% 4.7% yield to maturity of eurobonds by end of month (% per year):
2007 4.55% 4.54% 4.97% 5.02% 5.0% 2010 4.69% 4.57% 5.15% 5.08% 5.1% 2018 5.52% 5.28% 5.90% 5.65% 5.7% 2028 5.96% 5.74% 6.18% 6.02% 6.1% 2030 5.35% 5.16% 5.67% 5.47% 5.5% MBK- MIACR rate (% per year by end of month) 5.26% 2.61% 12.13% 8.50% 4.5% on credits for 1 day official rouble/USD exchange rate by end of 28.5450 28.4989 28.4244 28.7312 28.month official rouble/euro exchange rate by end of month 34.8763 34.3811 34.5300 33.9890 34.rise in official rouble /USD exchange rate during -0.31% -0.16% -0.26% 1.08% 0.07% month (%) rise in official rouble / euro exchange rate during 0.56% -1.42% -0.43% -1.57% 0.62% month (%) Turnover of stock market in RTS in given month 942.81 1197.60 1045.18 778.05 650.(million USD for shares included in list for calculating RTS index ) value of RTS-1 index by the end of month 882.40 1007.76 934.99 1037.26 changes of RTS-1 index during given month (%) 12.55% 14.21% -7.22% 10.94% 8.0% * Estimates Later on, the rouble regained, to a certain degree, its former positions, but at the same time its exchange rate in respect to the euro went down. The growth of the euro’s exchange rate was due to the positive macroeconomic data released in Germany, as well as to the declarations of the ECB’s officials that a further increase in the interest rates in Europe was possible. In the situation where the current cycle of US interest rates being increased will, very probably, be over, the comments from Europe may have a stronger influence on the relative values of the USD and the euro. As for the USD’s exchange rate, it continued to go down until the month’s third decade. Only the positive statistics, released in the USA, prevented an excessive fall in its exchange rate in respect to the euro and, consequently, to the rouble.
Judging by the month’s results, between 1 and 24 December the USD’s exchange rate demonstrated almost no changes, having gone up by only 0.001 rouble ( or by 0.002%) and reaching the level of 28.78 roubles per 1 USD. According to the IET’s forecast (see “The Bulletin of Model Calculations for Short-Term Forecasts of the RF’s Socio-Economic Indices”, December 2005, IET), the USD /rouble exchange rate in January may go down to 28.31 roubles per 1 USD, whereas the same index in December was forecasted as being at the level of 28.41 roubles per 1 USD. The aggregate trade volume in the USD in the SELT electronic trading system in the period from 1 through 23 December amounted to approximately $ 28.19 billion, the average daily turnover being $ 1.88 billion (as compared to approximately $ 30.05 billion, with the average daily turnover of $1.76 billion, in November).
The peak trade volume in the USD during that period was registered on 23 December and amounted to approximately $ 2.96 billion, the lowest – $1.31 billion on 5 December.
The rouble’s liquidity in the banking sector in December of the current year went up to a marker degree, as compared to that in November: the average amount of residuals on the correspondent accounts of credit institutions with the Bank of Russia in November was approximately 331.36 billion roubles, as compared to 277.59 billion roubles in November.
Between 1 and 24 December, the euro’s exchange rate on the international market remained almost unchanged, having gone up only by $ 0.002 (or by 0.17%), to $ 1.184 per 1 euro. At the same time, the euro/rouble exchange rate demonstrated a somewhat greater growth. Between 1 and 22 December, the euro/rouble exchange rate went up by 0.234 roubles (or by 0.69%), from 33.34 to 34.17 roubles per euro. The total turnover of trade in the euro in the SELT between 1 and 23 December amounted to approximately 344.91 million euro, the average daily turnover being at the level of 22.99 million euro (having been approximately 370.34 million euro, with the average daily turnover at the level of 21.million euro, in November). Thus, in the period under consideration, the Russian currency market demonstrated fall in the volumes of trade in the euro. The maximum volume of trade in the euro during that period was registered on 13 December at the level of 30.36 million euro, the minimum volume – 11,87 million euro, on 8 December.
D. Polevoi Investments in the real sector of the economy In January through November 2005, the volume of investments in fixed assets amounted to 2871.billion roubles, having increased by 9.9% in comparison with the same period of the previous year.