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Table Oil, oil products, and natural gas output in 2000 through 2004, in % of the figures registered in the preceding year 2000 2001 2002 2003 January - November Oil, including gas condensate 106,0 107,7 109,0 111,0 109,Oil 105,9 107,7 108,7 111,1 108,Gas condensate 103,8 106,7 112,8 108,7 117,Primary oil processing 102,7 103,2 103,3 102,7 102,Motor gasoline 103,6 100,6 104,9 101,2 103,Diesel fuel 104,9 102,0 104,7 102,0 102,Furnace fuel oil 98,3 104,2 107,1 100,3 97,Natural gas, cub. m. billion 98,5 99,2 101,9 103,4 101,Oil gas, cub. m. billion 102,5 105,0 110,5 119,3 106,Source: Federal Service of State Statistics.

In 2004, there was observed a significant growth in prices of oil and oil products occurring on the domestic market, what was primarily related to the enhancement of the potential of oil export. Due to the high level of world oil prices, the exports based on combined transport schemes including the use of rail road and river transport became efficient. In October, the average domestic oil price (producers price) in dollar terms increased to US $ 105.3 per metric ton. The average motor gasoline price has reached US $ 318.8 per metric ton, what is the record high over the whole post reform period. In the last few months, oil and natural gas prices have significantly exceeded the pre-devaluation level (see Table 3, Figures 1 and 2).

Table Domestic oil, oil products, and natural gas prices (in US $) in 2000 through (average wholesale prices of producers, US $ / metric ton) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Jun. Oct.

Oil 54,9 49,9 60,7 70,1 87,5 105,Motor gasoline 199,3 151,5 168,8 236,9 275,1 318,Diesel fuel 185,0 158,5 153,8 214,3 244,6 324,Furnace fuel oil 79,7 47,1 66,1 66,0 94,9 88,Gas, US $ / thous. c. m. 3,1 4,8 5,9 4,4 9,7 10,Source: calculated on the basis of the data presented by the Federal Service of State Statistics.

In January through September of 2004, the oil exports increased by 13.0 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year, while export of oil products grew by 4.0 per cent (see Table 4). The share of exports in commodity resources of diesel fuel made 54.7 per cent, furnace fuel oil 64.0 per cent, motor gasoline 13.9 per cent (memorandum: in the share of exports in the amount of motor gasoline output made only 7.2 per cent). The high level of world oil prices determined a significant increase in the proceeds from oil exports. In January through September of 2004, the amount of oil exports increased by 43.5 per cent as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year, what is more than 3 times above the growth in the volumes of oil exports. In January through September of 2004, the aggregate amount of the export of oil and major types of oil products reached US $ 45.24 billion.

The import of oil products increased as a result of the rise in domestic prices of oil products and real Ruble appreciation. On the whole, in January through September of 2004, the import of oil products increased 3.2 times in comparison with the figures observed in the respective period of the preceding year. At the same time, imports of motor gasoline grew more than 7 times in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year, while the share of imports in the gasoline resources increased from 0.2 per cent to 1.5 per cent. However, the specific weight of imports remains rather low. For instance, in the first six months of 1998, i.e. before the Ruble devaluation, the specific weight of imports in the gasoline resources made 8.7 per cent.

At the same time, there was registered an increase in the rates of growth in natural gas exports in comparison with the figures registered last year, what was primarily caused by the growing supply of natural gas to the CIS member countries (in January through September of 2004 natural gas exports to these countries increased by 22.5 per cent).

Table Export of oil, oil products, and natural gas from Russia, in per cent of the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year 2002 2003 2004 January - September Oil, total 113,9 117,8 113,Including exports to countries outside CIS 109,9 118,9 115,To CIS member countries 137,3 112,4 106,Oil products, total 118,5 103,6 104,Including exports to countries outside CIS 119,1 102,6 102,To CIS member countries 102,8 132,3 139,Natural gas, total 102,4 102,0 108,Source: Federal Service of State Statistics.

The high level of world oil prices observed in 2004 determined a significant growth in proceeds of the oil sector of the economy. In January through September of 2004, the aggregate proceeds from export of oil and staple oil products (furnace oil, diesel fuel, and motor gasoline) made US $ 45.billion, while their specific weight in the Russian exports made 35 per cent. In January through September of 2004, the total revenues (the balanced financial results) of the oil industry, including the oil extracting and oil processing industries, made US $ 8.05 billion. At the same time, the profits derived by oil industry made 33.2 per cent of the total revenues of the whole Russian industry and 17.7 per cent of the total revenues of the national economy at large. The proceeds of the oil sector determined a high level of tax revenues of the state budget and permitted oil companies to retain a relatively low level of creditor indebtedness (see Table 5).

Table Financial indicators of oil industry in 2000 through 2004, in US $ billion 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* Proceeds from export of oil 34,89 33,43 38,72 51,13 45,and staple oil products Profit (balanced financial 10,42 8,14 4,32 6,70 8,results) Outstanding creditor indebt- 1,35 1,01 0,90 1,07 1,edness (at the end of the year) Including indebtedness to suppliers 0,55 0,52 0,59 0,85 0,To the budget 0,27 0,15 0,10 0,07 0,* The data on the exports for January through September, on profits for January through August, for creditor indebtedness as at the end of August.

Source: calculated on the basis of the data presented by the Federal Service of State Statistics.

An analysis of the current situation on the world oil market permits to expect that rather high levels of world prices will persist in the near term outlook. According to the base variant of the last (December of 2004) forecast of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, in 2005 the world price of oil, calculated as the average price of the oil basket imported in the USA, will make on the average US $ 40.6 per barrel (see Table 6), while over the year there will be observed a gradual decline in the world oil prices as compared with the current level (US $ 42.9 per barrel in the 4th quarter of 2004).

Table Forecast of world oil prices in 2005, in US $ per barrel 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 (estimate) (forecast) Average price of oil im- ported to USA * 27,72 22,01 23,69 27,74 36,74 40,*Purchase price of oil for oil processing plants.

Source: U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration.

It should be expected that the measures taken by the OPEC, which has three times increased its quotas on oil extraction over the second half of 2004 and a further increase in the oil exports by Russia and other independent producers will have a downward impact on the world prices. In perspective, there should not be excluded the possibility that oil exports from Iraq would increase significantly. All these developments will facilitate a decline in the world oil prices. In the short term outlook, it may be expected that high world oil prices and favorable external conditions for the formation of the revenues of the state budget and development of the oil and natural gas sector will persist.

120 80 Oil 40 Natural gas (right axis) 0 Source: calculated on the basis of the data presented by the Federal Service of State Statistics.

Fig. 1. Average producer prices of oil and natural gas in US $ terms in 1992 through 2004, US $ per metric ton / US $ per thousand cubic meter Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Motor gasoline Furnace oil Source: calculated on the basis of the data presented by the Federal Service of State Statistics.

Fig. 2. Average producer prices of motor gasoline and furnace oil in US $ terms in through 2004, US $ per metric ton Yu. Bobylev IET Business Survey: Industry in December of The first data on the dynamics of output in December look optimistic at the first glance: the rates of growth in production outpaced those observed in November. However the lower rates of growth in sales, a sharp increase in the rate of dissatisfaction with demand, and the growth in excessive finished stocks would most probably make enterprises to decrease the intensity of output in the next few months.

The data published by Rosstat in November (as well as the earlier results of the IET surveys) demonstrate a certain deceleration of the rates of growth in industrial output. According to the estimates presented by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short Term Prognostication (CMASTP), in November the increase in the average daily volumes of output increased by 0.2 per cent in comparison with 0.5 per cent registered in October (as adjusted for the seasonal factor). In January through November, the index of industrial production made 106.2 per cent as compared with the level registered in the respective period of the preceding year, while in November it made 106.0 per cent. Taking into account the November slowdown in the rates of growth, over the year the growth should make from 106.0 per cent to 106.1 per cent.

The first data on the dynamic of industrial output in December demonstrated that the rates of growth in output increased in comparison with November. The balance of changes in output (prior to the adjustment for the seasonal factor) increased by 3 points; however, after the adjustment for the seasonal factor the growth made only 2 p. p. The insignificant changes of this indicator in comparison with the November figures do not permit to draw the conclusion about the increase in the rates of growth in industrial output. It may rather be stated that in December the negative trend of a further slowdown of growth in industrial output did not intensify.

However, an analysis of other indicators of the IET surveys not reflected by the official statistics, provide evidence that the negative trends intensified in December. First of all, it concerns the effective Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb demand. In December (similarly to the three previous years), the balance of changes in demand (prior to the adjustment for the seasonal factor) became negative as the volumes of sales of products declined in absolute terms. The absolute decline in sales was registered in the fuel industry, chemistry, petrochemistry, and light industry, the industry of construction materials and ferrous metallurgy. A minimal growth was registered in mechanical engineering. After the adjustment for the seasonal factor, the results of the December survey demonstrated the persistence of a growth in demand across the industries, which, however, was characterized by lower rates than in October and November.

The second negative signal was a significant decline in the satisfaction with the amounts of sales. In December, the share of normal evaluations of demand fell to 51 per cent and was the lowest in the last 6 months. The maximum of this indicator makes 60 per cent; this figure was registered in October of 2004. However, the prevalence of answers normal over below norm persisted. For the first time such a situation was observed in the middle of 2003. By that time, the sales of industrial products for cash had reached such amounts that in the Russian industry there were more enterprises considering the demand for their products normal than enterprises dissatisfied with demand. The Russian industry needed about 5 years of the post-default growth in effective demand to reach this turning point. However, not all industries and groups of enterprises could achieve in 2004 the amounts of sales, which could satisfy the majority of enterprises. The highest degree of satisfaction with demand was observed in the groups of large enterprises and joint stock companies across fuel industry, metallurgy, chemistry, petrochemistry, and food industry.

In 2004, the normal demand for produced goods corresponded to the utilization ratio of production capacities at the level of 72 per cent. According to estimates, the perception of the normal demand changed with time (see the Figure). In 1995 through 1998, the normal level was at its minimum and made 57 per cent to 58 per cent in the yearly terms. At present, in mechanical engineering the most moderate perceptions of the normal demand are as follows: the demand is considered normal in the case the utilization ratio of production capacities makes 62 per cent. The requirements of light industry are somewhat higher: 67 per cent. As concerns nonferrous metallurgy and the forestry complex, in 2004 the demand there is considered normal if it sets the utilization ratio of production capacities at per cent. In 2004, the evaluations of demand as being below norm corresponded to the utilization ratio of production capacities at 58 per cent on the average. However, in 1996 through 1998 the normal level of utilization of production capacities was considered to be at 41 per cent to 43 per cent.

A decline in the satisfaction with effective demand increases the need in non-cash channels of sales.

In the 4th quarter of 2004, the dissatisfaction with barter, promissory notes, and offsets reached its maximum values across the enterprises practicing or ready to resort to such schemes. About 10 per cent to 11 per cent of enterprises asses the current amounts of non-cash transactions as insufficient, while only 2 per cent to 3 per cent of enterprises evaluate these amounts as excessive. The surveys register such preference of non-cash transactions for the first time.

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