The attractiveness of financial market was significantly affected by an increase in the share of medium and long term assets accumulated by the banking system. At the same time, in the situation of economic growth it became apparent that management of investment did not correspond to the dynamic processes of restructuring of the Russian economy.
O. Izryadnova Foreign investment As at the end of September of 2004, the accumulated amount of foreign investment in the nonfinancial sector of the Russian economy (not taking into account the monetary and credit regulating authorities, commercial and savings banks, and including Ruble denominated investment in US $ equivalent) made about US $ 73.42 billion, what was by 28.8 per cent above the level of this indicator registered as on January 1, 2004. The similar indicator of the total amount of foreign investment observed in the first 9 months of 2004 is evaluated to be at US $ 29.1 billion.
Table The structure of foreign investment in the Russian economy in January through September of 2000 through 2004.
US $ mil. In % of the figures registered in the preceding year Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other 2000 7 888 3 154 59 4 675 22,0 0,7 6,6 times more 40,2001 9 721 2 920 292 6 509 23,2 -7,4 4,9 times more 39,2002 12 905 2 631 224 10 050 32,8 -9,9 -23,3 54,2003 20 899 4 665 81 16 153 61,9 77,3 2,8 times less 60,2004 29 135 5 590 227 23 318 39,4 19,8 2,8 times more 44,Source: RF Goskomstat This year, the trend towards an excess of the foreign investment in the Russian economy over the Russian investment abroad persisted. In the first 9 months of 2004, the Russian economy received by US $ 3.78 billion more investment than there was exported. In January through September of this year, 43.7 per cent of the received foreign investment were withdrawn as transferred abroad earnings of foreign investors, payments pertaining to the interest on credits, and repayment of credits (as compared with 49.0 per cent registered in the first nine months of 2003).
The rates of growth in foreign direct investors observed in January through September of 2004 have declined 4 times in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2003 and made 19.8 per cent. At the same time, the rates of growth in “other” investment remained at the level registered in the preceding year, what taking into account their higher absolute amounts resulted in an increase in the share of “other” investment to 80 per cent.
90% 3,5% 80% 3,0% 70% 2,5% 60% 2,0% 50% 40% 1,5% 30% 1,0% 20% 0,5% 10% 0% 0,0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Direct investment Other investment Portfolio investment Source: RF Goskomstat Fig. 1. The structure of foreign investment in the Russian economy in January through September of 1999 through Similarly to the situation observed in the preceding year, in 2004 the concentration of foreign investment in two spheres of the Russian economy: industry and trade and public catering persisted. At the same time, this year the highest rates of growth in foreign investment were observed in the sphere of finances, credit, insurance, and industry. The distribution of foreign investment across the key sectors of the Russian economy is presented in Table 2.
Portfolio investment Table The sectoral structure of foreign investment in the Russian economy in January through September of 2002 through Changes in % of the figures US $ mil. registered in the preceding In % of the total year 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 Industry 4 950 7 581 14 282 31,8 53,2 88,4 38,4 36,3 49,Transport and communications 427 882 1 489 -57,8 106,6 68,8 3,3 4,2 5,Trade and public catering 5 292 8 948 9 557 55,1 69,1 6,8 41,0 42,8 32,Commercial activities relating to 1 131 1 956 1 133 83,3 72,9 - 42,1 8,8 9,4 3,market servicing 3,Finance, credit, insurance, pensions 105 226 691 -8,7 115,2 0,8 1,1 2,times Other sectors 1 000 1 306 1 983 23,5 30,6 51,8 7,7 6,2 6,Source: RF Goskomstat A positive development in this year was the fact that there was observed a growth in investment across all key branches of industry.
In the first 9 months of 2004, the foreign investment in forestry, wood working, and pulp and paper industries, as well as in fuel industry increased 2.5 times as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of 2003, while investment in chemistry and petrochemistry grew by 64.9 per cent, investment in metallurgy rose by 50.9 per cent, investment in mechanical engineering, metal working, and food industry increased by 31 per cent respectively. At the same time, in comparison with the figures observed in January through September of 2003, there were observed significant changes in the branch structure of foreign investment in industry: a significant increase in investment in fuel industry and wood working resulted in the growth in their shares at the background of a decline in the specific weight of other branches of industry.
50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Fuel industry Food industry Wood working, Metallurgy Chemistry and Mechanical Other industries pulp and paper petrochemistry engineering and industry metal working 2002, % 2003, % 2004, % 2002, US $ mil 2003, US $ mil 2004, US $ mil Source: RF Goskomstat.
Fig. 2.The branch structure of foreign investment in industry in January through September of 2002 through US $ mil in % of investment in industry The Ruble appreciation and respective enhancement of competition on the part of imported goods may result in a decline in investment in the branches oriented towards the domestic market (for instance, in the food industry).
Similarly to the situation observed in 2003, the structure of foreign investment in industry was characterized by a higher share of foreign direct investment in comparison with the respective structure of the total foreign investment in the Russian economy (28.9 per cent in the first 9 months of 2004).
Although the rates of growth in direct and “other” investment in industry in 2004 are identical and made 85.7 per cent and 88.5 per cent respectively, the growth of investment in production occurred primarily at the expense of “other” investment, which increased by US $ 4.72 billion in absolute terms (up to US $ 10 billion) in comparison with the figures registered in the first 9 months of 2003 (the increase in direct investment in industry over this period made US $ 1.9 billion). Fuel industry accounted for more than 65 per cent of the increase in “other” investment (US $ 3.1 billion).
5,6% (6,1%)4,1%(10,1%) 7,0% Other investment 45,9% (29,0%) 33,6% (41,4%) (7,5%) 3,8% (5,8%) 2,9% (1,5%) 2,0% (15,4%) 10,8% 9,8% Portfolio investment 18,6% (0,1%) 55,9% (59,6%) (19,2%)(3,8%) 2,3% (4,1%) 4,9% (2,6%) 14,5% 14,3% Direct investment 59,0% (54,8%) (10,8%) (16,0%) 4,9% (11,7%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Fuel industry Food industry Wood working, pulp and paper industry Metallurgy Chemistry and petrochemistry Mechanical engineering and metal working Source: RF Goskomstat Fig. 3. Structure of foreign investment in industry in January through September of (the data for January through September of 2003 are presented in brackets).
In 2004, there were registered significant changes in the structure of foreign investment in a number of industries.
As concerns the structure of foreign investment in food industry, in January through September of 2004 the specific weight of direct investment there increased to 58.9 per cent, while in the respective period of the preceding year the growth made only 30.9 per cent. A similar situation was observed in chemistry and petrochemistry, where the share of direct foreign investment increased more than times (from 15.5 per cent to 33.7 per cent). As concerns the structure of foreign investment in mechanical engineering, metallurgy, fuel industry, and wood working, there on the contrary increased the specific weight of “other” investment: in mechanical engineering – from 55.6 per cent to 72.5 per cent, in metallurgy – from 95.8 per cent to 97.0 per cent, in fuel industry – from 55.8 per cent to 65.4 per cent, in wood working – from 40.9 per cent to 64.7 per cent.
A significant increase in investment in fuel industry resulted in changes in the regional structure of foreign investment in the Russian economy. For instance, the amount of investment in Moscow remained at the level observed in 2003, while foreign investment in the Tyumen oblast made US $ 4.billion in the first 9 months of 2004, what was 3.1 times more than the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The similar indicator for the Khanty Mansi autonomous okrug made US $ 3.9 billion, what was 2.7 times above the level registered in the preceding year. Over this period, investment in St. Peterburg grew by 28 per cent and made US $ 651 million. In the first 9 months of this year, investment in Tatarstan were at US $ 456.8 million, while the overall amount of investment in this region in 2003 made only US $ 176.1 million.
As concerns the geographical structure of foreign investment made in the Russian economy in January through September of 2004, Luxemburg held the leading positions, which accounted for 23.per cent of the total amount of investment made in the Russian economy in January through September of 2004, while the UK investment is second at 16.7 per cent of the total amount of foreign investment.
In 2004, the Luxemburg investors increased their investment in the Russian economy almost times, what was 3 times above investment from the Netherlands. In the first 9 months of 2004, the most significant decline in investment in the RF was registered with respect to investors from Germany. Over this period, German investment made US $ 1.17 billion (as compared with US $ 4.3 billion registered in the preceding year). French investment in the Russian economy has also declined to US $ 1.9 billion (from US $ 3.7 billion in 2003). The differences in the dynamics of investment from different countries resulted in significant changes in the geographical structure of investment in the Russian economy.
Географическая структура иностранных инвестиций, поступивших в российскую экономику в январе-сентябре 2004 г.
(в скобках представлены данные за январь-сентябрь 2003 г.) США Германия 5,6% (4,7%) Прочие страны 4,0% (17,8%) 28,4% (35,1%) Великобритания 16,7% (14,4%) Кипр 9,8% (13,9%) Люксембург Нидерланды 23,2% (8,5%) 12,3% (5,6%) Source: RF Goskomstat In 2004, the sectoral preferences of foreign investors from different countries also shifted. Thus, while in 2003 investors from Luxemburg invested in trade and public catering (60.1 per cent of the total investment from Luxemburg to the RF in 2003) and metallurgy (35.2 per cent), in 2004 these investors preferred fuel industry (51.8 per cent of the total investment from Luxemburg to the RF in January through September of 2004), communications enterprises (7.1 per cent), and the sphere of trade and public catering (40.1 per cent).
In January through September of 2004, entrepreneurs from UK significantly diminished their investment in the general commercial activities relating to market servicing: from 30.1 per cent of their aggregate investment in the Russian economy in 2003 to 8.5 per cent in January through September of 2004. At the same time, they increased their investment in the sphere of trade and public catering (from 39.6 per cent in 2003 to 45.3 per cent in January through September of 2004) and metallurgy (from 10.3 per cent to 27.4 per cent). In January through September of 2004, the share of investment in communications made 8.5 per cent of the total amount of UK investment (the data about UK investment in communications in 2003 are unavailable).
For investors from France, the priority sector was fuel industry, where they invested US $ 2.7 billion, or 72.5 per cent of the total French investment in the RF in 2003. In the first 9 months of 2004, the respective indicator was registered at only US $ 200 million, or 10.4 per cent of the total French investment. At the same time, the share of investment in trade and public catering in the French investment in the Russian economy in January through September of 2004 increased to 59.8 per cent.
Over the first 9 months of 2004, the Netherlands, Luxemburg, Cyprus, Germany, and UK were the leaders in terms of the total amount of accumulated foreign investment. Their share made 64.8 per cent. The top five investing countries also accounted for 59.0 per cent of direct foreign investment, 51.3 per cent of portfolio investment, and 69.5 per cent of “other” investment.
Structure of accumulated foreign investment as broken down by major investing countries Accumulated by 01.10.2004 US $ mil. Change to 01.01.2004, in % Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other USA 6 670 4 207 412 2 051 25,9 -2,1 10 times 2,1 times 54,7 times Germany 9 378 2 410 7 6 961 -8,1 -5,2 -4,less France 4 206 364 0,1 3 842 -11,9 10,0 0,0 -13,UK 7 422 1 460 143 5 819 2,8 -48,4 33,6 35,Cyprus 9 580 5 545 562 3 473 18,5 10,1 2,7 38,The Netherlands 10 678 7 858 43 2 777 3 times 2,8 times в 8,6 р. 3,6 times Luxemburg 10 560 280 1 10 279 3 times 26,1 0,0 3,2 times Other countries 14 935 7 645 306,9 6 983 3,8 -5,4 -11,0 16,Total 73 429 29 769 1 475 42 185 28,8 13,9 3,2 43,Source: RF Goskomstat.
On November 18, 2004, the international ranking agency Fitch increased the Russia’s sovereign ranking up to the investment level. On October 8, 2003, the agency Moody’s also granted Russia the investment ranking. At the end of November of 2004, the ranking agency Standard & Poors also announced that it was ready to increase the Russia’s sovereign ranking to the investment level. This fact will have a positive impact on the investment climate in Russia in the future and will facilitate an inflow of foreign capital in the Russian economy.
E. Ilyukhina The Real Sector of the Economy: Factors and Trends In 2004, the dynamics and structure of production were favorably affected by the changes observed in the business situation on the world markets, the growth in investment in fixed assets and the dynamic development of the sector of services. In January through September of 2004, the amount of GDP made Rub. 12164.4 billion and increased by 7.0 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. While in 2004 the added value in the sector of manufacturing of goods grew by 6.2 per cent, the market services increased by 7.5 per cent.
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