Table Dynamics of international stock market indices Change within the Change since the Data as on December 23, 2004 Value month (%)12 beginning of the year (%) 585.86 -7.51% -0.04% RTS (Russia) 10759.43 2.25% 3.36% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 2150.91 2.33% 7.19% Nasdaq Composite (USA) 1205.45 1.93% 8.75% S&P 500 (USA) 4733.00 -0.18% 4.94% FTSE 100 (UK) 4214.39 1.45% 4.87% DAX-30 (Germany) 3770.03 -0.32% 4.82% CAC-40 (France) 5640.80 1.66% 1.04% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 11125.92 2.70% 2.78% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 25890.00 3.57% 15.35% Bovespa (Brazil) 12651.73 4.77% 55.84% IPC (Mexico) 1810.10 2.04% 21.93% IPSA (Chile) 2063.59 1.73% 15.20% Straits Times (Singapore) 882.82 2.88% 7.5% Seoul Composite (South Korea) 24044.56 3.23% 25.57% ISE National-100 (Turkey) Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index The Foreign Exchange Market. In the beginning of the month, at the background of significant forex denominated export proceeds the US $ depreciation continued. At the same time, the situation on the world currency market did not significantly affect the US $ / Ruble exchange rate – the Ruble appreciation persisted. Later in the month, on the market there was observed an adjustment in the course of which the US dollar somewhat appreciated. A negative factor behind the changes in the Ruble exchange rate was a sharp decline in the world oil prices. The negative dynamics of the stock market forced certain investors to balance their positions and in the course of this adjustment a part of the funds made available was invested on the forex market. Since the middle of the month, the forex market began more significantly react to the dynamics of the Euro / US $ exchange rate. By the end of the month, the trade on the forex market were characterized by a stable level of the US $ exchange rate at about RUR 27.83 per US $.
In the period from December 1 till December 23, the US $ depreciated by RUR 0.32 (by 1.15 per cent) and made RUR 27.825 per US $. The aggregate volume of trade in the US Dollar at the SELT in the period from December 1 till December 23 made about US $ 35.06 billion (as compared with approximately US $ 30 billion in the respective period of November). Over this period, the average daily turnover made US $ 2.19 billion, what was also above the respective indicator registered in November.
During the period under review, the highest volume of trade in the US Dollar, about US $ 5.05 billion, was observed on December 10; the lowest volume, US $ 958 million, was observed on December 23.
This December, the Ruble liquidity in the banking sector demonstrated a significant increase in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding month, what was the continuation of the trends observed over the few last months: in December, the average balances of correspondent accounts of credit organizations with the Bank of Russia made about RUR 327.6 billion as compared with RUR 277 billion registered in November of 2004.
In relation to the levels registered on November 26.
Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2003-40.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 39.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.22.214.171.124.Figure 8.
Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 126.96.36.199.1.1.1.In the beginning of the month, the Euro continued to appreciate against the US dollar. The major factor behind the appreciation was the information about the state of the US labor market. In the middle of the month, on the world forex market there was observed consolidation of the exchange of the European currency after the period of intensive growth and at the background of the increase in the US balance of trade from US $ 50.9 billion to US $ 55.5 billion. At the same time, the net amount of purchases of US securities by nonresidents declined from US $ 67.5 billion to US $ 48.1 billion.
roubles 01.11.01.12.31.12.30.01.29.02.30.03.29.04.29.05.28.06.28.07.27.08.26.09.188.8.131.52.25.12.USD/EURO 03.11.03.12.02.01.01.02.02.03.01.04.01.05.31.05.30.06.30.07.29.08.28.09.184.108.40.206.In the period from December 1 till December 25, the exchange rate of Euro on the world market appreciated by US $ 0.02 (1.8 per cent) and reached US $ 1.3535 per Euro. At this background, there was also observed a significant appreciation of the Euro against the Ruble. In the period from December 1 till December 25, the European currency appreciated against the Ruble by RUR 0.27 (0.73 per cent) from RUR 37.32 per Euro to RUR 37.59 per Euro. Thus, the Euro exchange rate reached its historical maximum both on the world and the Russian market. The aggregate turnover of trade at the SELT amounted to Euro 143.6 million in the period from December 1 till December 25, while the average daily turnover was registered at about Euro 8.98 million. These indicators were somewhat above their respective levels observed in November. In this period, the highest volume of trade with Euro was registered on December 2 at Euro 12.09 million, and the lowest, Euro 7.03 million, was observed on December 7.
Table Financial Markets Indicators Month August September October August December* Monthly inflation rate 0,4% 0,4% 1,1% 1,1% 1,2% Inflation rate annualized on the basis of this 4,91% 4,91% 14,03% 14,03% 15,4% month's trend CB RF refinancing rate 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% Annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues (%) 6,64% 7,13% 6,15% 7,97% 7,2% Volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ 20,61 33,59 30,57 18,07 35,market for the month (RUR billion) Yield to maturity on Minfin bonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 5th tranche 5,87% 5,84% 5,28% 5,35% 5,0% 6th tranche 4,25% 4,25% 3,80% 3,93% 4,2% 7th tranche 6,90% 6,86% 6,27% 6,38% 5,9% 8th tranche 4,87% 4,76% 4,28% 4,46% 4,5% Yield to maturity of Eurobonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 2005 3,92% 5,14% 6,26% 8,43% 10,0% 2007 5,30% 5,86% 5,39% 6,33% 6,4% 2010 6,76% 7,01% 6,66% 7,03% 7,0% 2018 7,60% 7,61% 7,21% 7,35% 7,1% 2028 8,22% 8,20% 7,83% 7,86% 7,6% 2030 7,23% 7,24% 6,84% 6,93% 6,6% INSTAR-MIACR rate (% p.a.) on interbank 9,86% 3,13% 2,93% 1,26% 1,0% overnight loans at the end of the month Official RUR / US$ exchange rate at the end of 29,2447 29,2171 28,7655 28,2367 27,the month Official RUR / Euro exchange rate at the end of 35,1463 35,9896 36,6472 37,4165 37,the month Average annualized growth in RUR / US$ ex- 0,49% -0,09% -1,55% -1,84% -1,5% change rate Average annualized growth in RUR / Euro ex- 0,27% 2,40% 1,83% 2,10% 0,8% change rate Volume of trading at the stock market in the 277,15 262,27 470,87 351,53 RTS for the month (US$ million) Value of RTS-1 Index at the end of the month 584,65 635,57 663,67 633,34 Change in value of RTS-1 Index during the month 8,21% 8,71% 4,42% -4,57% -3,5% (%) * Estimate D. Polevoy Investment in the real sector of the economy According to the estimates presented by the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, in 2004 the increase in investment in fixed assets made 10.5 per cent. This year, the share of investment in fixed assets in GDP is evaluated to be at the level of 14.6 per cent as compared with 16.4 per cent registered in 2003.
The character of investment activities was most significantly affected by the intensive growth in revenues of the economy determined by the exclusively favorable changes in the price situation on the world market, as well as an active policy pursued by the Russian business on the domestic market.
An increase in investment demand is a specific feature of the recovery growth of the development of the Russian economy. In 2000 through 2004, there was observed a trend of outpacing rates of growth in investment in fixed assets in comparison with the GDP dynamics and output of the base sectors of the economy. According to the preliminary estimates for 2004 published by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the increase in investment in fixed assets will make 10.5 per cent.
The share of investment in fixed assets in GDP is estimated to be at the level of 14.6 per cent as compared with 16.4 per cent registered in 2003 and approximately corresponds with the average value of this indicator in the period from 1998 till 1999.
2004 оценка -10 1993 --GDP Investment in fixed assets -Fig. 1. Rates of growth in GDP and investment in fixed assets in 1992 through 2004, in per cent of the figures registered in the preceding year The intensive growth in the revenues of the economy had the most significant impact on the nature of investment activities. This circumstance was related to the exceptionally favorable changes in the price situation on the world market of hydrocarbon raw materials and metals, on the one hand, and the active policy of the Russian business aimed at the filling of the niches on the internal market with domestically produced goods, on the other hand. The intensive expansion of investment demand was based on the acceleration of the rates of growth in output of the industries belonging to the investment complex. Due to the increasing orientation towards an active modernization and reconstruction of production both the export sector and manufacturing industries increased their demand for machinery and equipment.
One of the key areas of investment in fixed assets still remains the replacement of worn out equipment and machinery. In 2004, about one third of all organizations the investment aimed at the increase in production capacities both manufacturing the same products, and new goods. At about 40 per cent to 47 per cent of organization, the motivation to enhance their investment activity was determined by practical problems of enhancement of efficiency of production related to the introduction of new production technologies, diminishing of the first cost of the products, and saving of energy resources. As a result, in 2004 a considerable part of investment in fixed assets was made in purchase of machinery and equipment. According to the data provided by the Rosstat, 88 per cent of organization purchased new machinery and equipment of domestic manufacturing, while 60 per cent of organizations purchased machinery and equipment of foreign production; 22 per cent and 5 per cent of organizations purchased domestic and foreign equipment respectively on the secondary market. In January through September of 2004, the investment in purchase of imported equipment made 23.0 per cent of the total amount of investment in machinery, equipment, and transport vehicles.
2004 оценка -1993 ---Mechanical engineering Industry of construction materials Investment in fixed assets Import of machinery and equipment Fig. 2. The rates of growth in investment in fixed assets, production, and import of capital goods in 1992 through 2004, in per cent of the figures registered in the preceding year The dynamics of output of capital goods across the branches of mechanical engineering were determined by the outpacing rates of growth in production of technical means of general industrial purpose. As concerns the output of investment goods, the leading positions in this area were taken by the industries manufacturing equipment for oil and chemical industries, as well as the branches of mechanical engineering traditionally oriented towards the domestic market: railroad and metallurgy mechanical engineering. The intensive development of the infrastructure branches imparted an impetus to an increase in the growth in the volumes of output of road construction, hoisting and transport mechanical engineering, communication production and instrument making. The fact that domestic mechanical engineering could retain its competitive capacity with respect to similar imported equipment and machinery in terms of prices has created incentives for an expansion of output of equipment for the consumer complex industries.
The shift from financing of investment in fixed assets from own funds of enterprises and organizations to the increase in the share of borrowings was a principally new moment of economic growth.
This shift is an important illustration of qualitative changes in the mechanism of investment development oriented towards the rationalization of investment resource flows. In January through September of 2004, the share of own funs mad 47.4 per cent of the total amount of investment in fixed assets. The changes in the proportions of borrowed funds was determined by the outpacing rates of growth in bank credits and borrowings from other organizations at the background of moderate participation of budgetary sources of financing.
In 2004, the share of banks in the crediting of investment increased up to 7.7 per cent as compared with 5.2 per cent registered in 2003 and 2.9 per cent registered in 2000. In 2003 and 2004 there were observed higher rates of economic growth, while the positive dynamics of growth in foreign direct investment in the Russian economy persisted. As concerns the results of the first three quarters of 2004, the increase in foreign investment made 39.1 per cent, while the share of foreign investment in the total amount of investment in the national economy made 5.4 per cent.
Table Structure of investment in fixed assets across sources of financing in per cent of the total 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* Investment in fixed assets, total 100 100 100 100 100 100 Including 1. Own funds 53,2 52,4 47,7 49,4 48,0 46,2 47,of which Profits 13,2 15,9 23,4 24,0 20,5 17,2 17,2. Borrowings 46,8 47,6 52,5 50,6 52,0 53,8 52,of which Bank credits 4,8 4,2 2,9 4,4 4,8 5,2 7,Including credits of foreign banks 0,6 0,9 0,5 0,8 1,Borrowings form other organizations 4,3 5,6 7,2 4,9 6,0 8,6 7, Budget resources: 19,1 17,0 22,0 20,4 19,6 18,8 16, Federal budget 6,5 6,4 6,0 5,8 6,0 6,5 4,Budgets of RF subjects and local budgets 12,6 10,6 16,0 14,6 13,6 11,5 11,Foreign investment in the total amount of investment in fixed assets 3,5 6,6 4,7 4,5 4,1 4,7 5,*) according to the data collected in January through September of Source: Federal Service of State Statistics Among the factors behind the increasing role of banks and borrowings from other organizations there may be indicated the dedollarization of household savings. The decline in the amounts of household cash savings denominated in foreign exchange and conversion of such funds in Rubles was accompanied by the growing amounts of deposits in banking structures. The low real value of credit resources at the average profitability levels formed in the economy resulted in the expansion of the circle of enterprises-borrowers in the sector of the economy oriented towards the domestic market.
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