WWW.DISSERS.RU


...
    !

Pages:     | 1 | 2 || 4 | 5 |   ...   | 17 |

XI`03 XII`03 I`04 II`04 III`04 IV04 V04 VI04 VII04 VIII`04 IX`04 X`04 XI`Total revenues 19.3% 19.5% 20.4% 19.6% 19.7% 20.4% 20.6% 20.6% 20.7% 20.6% 20.1% 20.2% 20.5% Public administration 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Judicial power 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 3.9% 2.9% 3.7% 3.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% International activity 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% National defense 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Law enforcement and safety measures 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% Fundamental scientific research and technological development promotion 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% Public services rendered to national economy 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% Social services 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% National debt service 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% Other expenditures 6.9% 7.0% 5.6% 6.6% 6.1% 6.6% 6.6% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 5.9% 5.9% 6.0% Total expenditures 18.1% 17.8% 15.2% 19.7% 18.0% 19.7% 18.8% 17.1% 17.4% 17.1% 16.2% 16.5% 16.9% Budgetary surplus (+) / deficit (-) 1.3% 1.6% 5.2% 0.0% 1.7% 0.7% 1.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% According to the estimates of the Tax Ministry, in October of 2004 the tax revenues of the federal budget made about Rub. 144.16 billion (without the single social tax). In real terms the revenues made 288.4 per cent of the level registered in January of 1999, while the respective indicator was at 248.per cent in September of 2003 and 254.8 per cent in September of 2002 (see Table 3).

The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999)6.

2002* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 239,6% 218,0% 284,4% 246,5% 254,8% 299,7% 241,0% 250,2% 2003* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 230,0% 229,2% 265,5% 280,4% 233,2% 240,0% 260,4% 242,6% 248,7% 265,6% 231,0% 247,9% 2004* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI 266,5% 204,4% 238,0% 261,4% 241,0% 243,6% 288,9% 246,0% 288,4% 314,7% 229,0% * .

135% 125% 115% 105% 95% 85% 75% 65% Profit tax VAT 55% 45% 35% Fig 1. Real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to July 1999) The dynamics of real arrears relating to major taxes since January of 2000 are presented in Fig. 1. The debts related to the payments due to the federal budget made, as concerns VAT, Rub. 276.0 billion by September of 2004, increasing by almost Rub. 20 billion since the beginning of 2004, while the arrears of the profit tax increased by Rub. 0.5 billion and made about Rub. 26.9 billion as on September 1, 2004. On the whole, a gradual decrease in the level of accumulated arrears observed since early 2001 to the second half of 2003 was replaced by the stabilization of the level of accumulated indebtedness as concerns the VAT. In the case of the profit tax, the real accumulated arrears continue to decline; however it practically does not change in the nominal terms.

It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable.

January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII * 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% 25,2% 25,4% 25,4% 25,5% 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% 31,7% 32,0% 32,1% 32,1% 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% 28,4% 29,3% 29,7% 31,1% / 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% 3,3% 2,7% 2,4% 1,0% 14,6% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII * 25,6% 24,4% 25,6% 27,4% 27,1% 26,0% 26,1% 25,7% 25,0% 25,0% 25,1% 25,2% 32,0% 30,3% 31,5% 33,4% 33,6% 32,2% 32,2% 31,6% 30,9% 30,8% 30,7% 31,1% 20,7% 25,3% 27,7% 28,8% 28,8% 28,6% 28,7% 28,5% 28,2% 27,8% 27,9% 29,7% / 11,3% 5,0% 3,8% 4,5% 4,7% 3,5% 3,6% 3,1% 2,7% 3,0% 2,8% 1,4% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X * 6,1% 21,8% 27,4% 27,4% 26,6% 27,2% 27,1% 26,4% 26.5% 30,6% 28,2% 29,8% 32,9% 32,9% 32,5% 33,1% 32,9% 31,9% 32.0% 18,5% 22,8% 25,4% 27,3% 26,9% 27,0% 27,0% 26,9% 26,0% 25.9% / 12,1% 5,4% 4,4% 5,6% 6,0% 5,5% 6,1% 6,0% 5,9% 6.1% * The revenues of the consolidated budget in January through October of 2004 made 32.0 per cent of GDP, including tax revenues (without SST) at 26.5 per cent of GDP (see Table 4). The expenditures of the consolidated budget decreased by 1.9 p. p. of GDP in comparison with the figures registered in January through October of 2003 and made 25.9 per cent of GDP. As on November 1, 2004, the surplus of the consolidated budget made 6.1 per cent of GDP, what is by 3.1 p. p. of GDP above the level observed in the respective period of 2003.

Main Developments in the Public Sector.

On December 17, 2004, the State Duma ratified a document permitting Russia to switch to the collection of the value added tax on the country of destination principle in its mutual trade with Byelorussia. According to the estimates, presented in the memorandum to the draft law on the federal budget for year 2005, the introduction of the country of destination principle with respect to the value added tax on hydrocarbons and other goods exported to Byelorussia, in the case the base rate of the tax on oil extraction and natural gas extraction is increased, would result in a decline of the revenues of the federal budget by Rub. 8.6 billion, or by 0.05 per cent of GDP.

The RF Finance Ministry is planning to reduce the rates of the value added tax not earlier than in 2006. The Ministry considers several variants depending on the retention of the preferential 10 per cent rate. Thus, in the case the 10 per cent VAT rate is retained, the estimated reduction of the 18 per cent base rate would make from 1 p. p. to 2 p. p., otherwise, the VAT rate may be reduced to 15 per cent. It should be noted that since 2004, the base rate was reduced by 2 p. p. and made 18 per cent.

The respective evaluation of losses in the budget revenues presented in the memorandum supplemented to the draft law on the federal budget for year 2005 made about Rub. 100 billion or 0.65 per cent of GDP. Over the first three quarters of 2004, the VAT generated tax revenues declined by 0.45 p.

p. of GDP and made 6.32 per cent of GDP.

According to the estimates presented by the RF Ministry of Finance, the amount of the Stabilization Fund may make Rub. 520 billion as on January 1, 2005. At the same time, the amount of the RF Stabilization Fund, as adjusted for the transfers from balances of accounts after the execution of the federal budget in 2004, may make Rub. 600 billion as on February 1, 2005. As on December 1, the amount of the Stabilization Fund made Rub. 462 billion.

S. Ponomarenko Monetary Policy In November, there persisted the trend towards an increase in the rates of inflation as compared with its level registered in the preceding year: in November, the CPI value made 1.1 per cent (1 per cent in November of 2003). At the same time, there occurred a gradual expansion of money supply at the background of the continuing growth in the amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the RF Central Bank. In November of 2004, the Board of Directors of the RF Central Bank approved the Key guidelines of the common state monetary policy for year 2005, which retained a rather optimistic forecast of the inflation rates for the next year from 6.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent.

The increase in the consumer price index made 1.1 per cent (1 per cent in November of 2003), and 10.5 per cent since the beginning of the year (10.8 per cent in January through November of the preceding year, see Fig. 1). The most significant rise was observed in the group of food products (1.5 per cent as compared with 1.2 per cent registered in the respective month of 2003). The increment as compared with the figures observed in December of 2003 made 10.4 per cent, what is significantly above the increase observed in the respective period of the preceding year (8.6 per cent). In the first seven months of this year, there were registered more moderate rates of growth in consumer prices of food products as compared with the figures observed in the respective period of the last years. However, after a relatively insignificant seasonal decline in prices of fruits and vegetables, the CPI characterizing this group of products began to exceed the value of this indicator registered over the preceding years. As concerns the period from January till November, over this time the pasta products, meat, sugar, and poultry have increased in prices more significantly than in the respective period of the preceding year. Besides, the seasonal decline in the prices of fruits and vegetables was less pronounced than that registered last year.

As compared with the figures registered in December of 2003, the most significant rise in prices was observed in the group of paid consumer services (by 16.6 per cent as compared with 21.2 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year). The increase in November made 0.8 per cent (as compared with 0.4 per cent observed in November of 2003). It should be noted that in January through October of 2004 the increase in the consumer prices of paid services to the population was below the indicators registered in the last two years; however, in November the prices of paid services grew more significantly than in 2003. Over the last month communications services demonstrated the most considerable growth (+ 2.2 per cent).

This year, the prices of nonfood goods also grew at lower rates as compared with the indicators registered last year. Thus, in November the increase made 0.7 per cent (as compared with 0.8 per cent registered in November of 2003), while in the 11 months of this year the prices of nonfood products grew by 7 per cent (by 8.6 per cent in the respective period of the preceding year). In November, the prices of gasoline increased by 2.8 per cent (by 33.6 per cent since the beginning of the year as compared with 16.3 per cent registered in January through November of 2003).

In November, the growth in the Base Consumer Price Index (BCPI) 7 made 1.1 per cent. Therefore, since the beginning of the year the increase in the BCPI made 9.3 per cent (the total increase in the BCPI in 2003 made 11.2 per cent).

According to our estimates, in 2004 inflation in the RF will make about 11.5 per cent. A more detailed forecast of the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators in 2005 see the bulletin Scenario based macroeconomic forecast for year 2005 at the IET web site www.iet.ru.

The Base Consumer Price Index (BCPI) is an indicator reflecting the inflation rate on the consumer market. It leaves out of account the seasonal (prices of fruits and vegetables) and administrative (tariffs on regulated types of services etc.) factors, calculated by the Statistics Service of the RF.

The Growth Rate of the CPI in 2002 - 2004 (% per month).

3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% Fig. 1.

In November of this year, the monetary base of the Russian Federation (in the broad definition8) increased by about RUR 152.8 billion and made RUR 2.08 trillion. Therefore, in November the growth in the monetary base exceeded 7.9 per cent. It should be reminded that in July and August the monetary base contracted, while in September there was observed an insignificant increase in the monetary base (+ 0.1 per cent), and in October it increased by 5.6 per cent. In comparison with the indicators value observed as on January 1, 2004, the amount of the monetary base increased by 8.8 per cent. In the respective period of the preceding year, the growth made 24.9 per cent. Below, the dynamics of the monetary base will be analyzed across its components.

The amount of cash in circulation (as adjusted for cash balances of crediting organizations) made RUR 1.42 trillion as on December 1 (+ 1.8 per cent as compared with the level registered on November 1 of this year). On the same date, the amount of accounts of crediting organizations with the Central Bank of Russia made RUR 278.9 billion (+ 16.5 per cent), the amount of mandatory reserves was at RUR 119 billion (+ 1.4 per cent), the amount of banks deposits in the Bank of Russia made RUR 192.8 billion (+ 122 per cent), the amount of the Central Banks liabilities related to the reverse repurchase of securities was at RUR 40.3 billion (-41 per cent), and the funds transferred to the Bank of Russia as the reserves related to foreign exchange operations made RUR 7.5 billion (+ 108 per cent).

Therefore, in November there was observed a growth across all components of the monetary base, with the exception of the Central Banks liabilities related to the reverse repurchase of securities.

As in the middle of December, the amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Russia made US $ 119.8 billion. Therefore, since the beginning of the year, the gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by more than 55 per cent. Over the respective period of the last year, the reserves grew by 61 per cent. The amount of the narrowly defined monetary base (cash in circulation and the balances of mandatory reserves accounts of crediting organizations with the Central Bank of Russia) made RUR 1577.9 billion (+ 12.8 per cent as compared with the data registered in the beginning of the year). In the respective period of the preceding year, the monetary base in the narrow definition increased by 51.3 per cent. The dynamics of gold and foreign exchange reserves and the monetary base is presented in Figure 2.

Pages:     | 1 | 2 || 4 | 5 |   ...   | 17 |



2011 www.dissers.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .