Table The structure of foreign investment in industry in January through September of 2001 through Change in comparison with the US $ mil. In % of the total respective period of the preceding year, % 2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 Total industry, including: 3755 4950 7581 100% 100% 100% +13,0% +31,8% +53,2% Fuel industry 591 1282 2770 15,7% 25,9% 36,5% +39,4% +116,9 +116,1% Metallurgy 1148 1748 2306 30,6% 35,3% 30,4% +53,7% +52,3 +31,9% Mechanical engineering 404 304 588 10,8% 6,1% 7,8% +12,2% - 24,8 +93,4% and metal working Food industry 1038 831 779 27,6% 16,8% 10,3% -17,6% - 19,9 -6,3% Wood working, pulp and 176 197 281 4,7% 4,0% 3,7% -3,8% +11,9 +42,6% paper industry Other industries 398 588 857 10,6% 11,9% 11,3% +13,4% +47,7 +45,8% Source: RF Goskomstat The structure of foreign investment in industry in January through September of 2001 through 5,8% (2,8%) 6,1% 29,0% 41,4% 10,1% 7,5% other investment (2,6%) (23,6%) (43,7%) (17,4%) (9,8%) 3,8% (0,1%) 1,5% (0,1%) 15,4% 19,2% 59,6% (10,5%) portfolio investment (0,1%) (88,0%) 0,4% (1,1%) 4,1% (5,7%) 2,6% (4,7%) 54,8% 10,8% 16,0% 11,7% direct investment (34,8%) (16,2%) (21,2%) (17,3%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Fuel industry Metallurgy Mechanical eng. and metal working Chemistry Food industry Other industries Source: RF Goskomstat The structure of foreign investments in industry is characterized by a higher specific weight of direct foreign investment (29.3 per cent in the first nine months of 2003) as compared with the respective structure of the aggregate amount of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy. At the same time, there were observed significant changes in the structure of foreign investment in industry as compared with the figures registered in 2002.
Thus, the share of fuel industry in the structure of foreign direct investment made in industry in January through September of 2003 increased 1.6 times. At the same time, in absolute terms the foreign direct investment in this industry made US $ 1.2 billion, what was 3 times above the figures registered in the preceding period.
The results of the first nine months of this year demonstrate that portfolio investors sharply decreased their investment in metallurgy. The amount of portfolio investment in ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy dropped 16.2 times and made only US $ 5 million.
As concerns the geographical structure of attracted foreign investment observed in in January through September of 2003, the leading positions in this sphere are held by Germany (US $ 3.7 billion, or 17.7 per cent of the foreign investment attracted in January through September of 2003), UK (US $ 3 billion, or 14.per cent), Cyprus (US $ 2.9 billion, or 13.9 per cent), Luxemburg (US $ 1.77 billion or 8.5 per cent), and France (US $ 1.75 billion or 8.4 per cent). At the same time, the most intensive growth in investment over the first nine months of 2003 was demonstrated by Luxemburg (2.6 times) and Japan, whose investment increased 2 times (up to US $ 626 million). An increase in investment in the Russia's economy was observed across all major investing countries.
The structure of accumulated foreign investment as broken down by major investing countries as on October 1, 2003, somewhat differed from the respective structure of foreign investment made in Russian in January through September of 2003.
The structure of accumulated foreign investment as broken down by major investing countries as on October 1, 2003.
USA 10,9% (13,9%) Other Germany 37,0% (40,1%) 19,6% (13,8%) UK Niderland Cyprus 12,2% (12,1%) 6,2% (7,1%) 14,1% (13,0%) Source: RF Goskomstat In January through September of 2003, German entrepreneurs demonstrated their interest in the sphere of trade and public catering by investing in this sector US $ 2.2 billion, or 59.9 per cent of the aggregate German investment made over the first nine months of 2003 (US $ 1.3 billion in the first nine months of 2002). According to the results of the first nine months of 2003, industry attracted US $ 788 million, or 21.per cent of the total investment from Germany (US $ 502 million or 24.7 per cent in the first nine months of 2002), while the German investment in communications increased 7.2 times up to US $ 408 million (11 per cent of the total amount of investment attracted from Germany).
British investors preferred to invest in trade and public catering, as well as industry. These spheres of the Russia’s economy accounted for 51.3 per cent (US $ 1.5 billion) and 27.4 per cent (US $ 826 million) of the total investment from UK to the Russia’s economy made over the first nine months of 2003. The British investment in general commercial activities relating to market servicing made 17.4 per cent (US $ million). In January through September of 2003, these spheres of the Russia’s economy accounted for 43.per cent (US $ 739 million), 28.9 per cent (US $ 494 million), and 24 per cent (US $ 410 million) of the total investment from UK to the Russia’s economy.
The larger part of the French investment (US $ 1.4 billion or 81.6 per cent of the total investment from France registered in January through September of 2003 as compared with US $ 396 billion, or 40.6 per cent of the respective investment from France registered in the first nine months of 2002) was made in the industrial sector, primarily fuel industry where France invested US $ 1.1 billion, or 76.5 of the total industry related French investment (US $ 140 billion, or 35.4 per cent of the respective investment from France registered in the first nine months of 2002). At the same time, the specific weight of France in the total foreign investment in industry made in January through September of 2003 increased to 18.8 per cent (8 per cent in the first nine months of 2002).
The fact that the international ranking agency Moody's increased the ranking of the RF by two grades at once (up to the investment level Ваа3) in the early October of 2003 is an indication (although this level is the lowest of the investment ranking group) that foreign investors believe in Russia ability to promptly meet its debt obligations both in the short term and long term outlook.
E. Ilykhina The Real Sector: Factors and Trends The economic recovery observed in 1999 through 2003 occurred at the background of simultaneous recovery of positive dynamics in both the sector of production of goods and services sector. While the added value in the production sector increased by 6.4 per cent in January through September of 2003, market services grew by 7.6 per cent. In 2003, the dynamics of market services were most significantly affected by the accelerating rates of growth in services rendered by transport, communications, trade, commercial activities ensuring market operation, and transactions with real estate.
In the last years, retail trade was a most dynamically developing sector of the economy. After the amounts of retail trade decreased more than by 10 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in 1997, over the next four years, as the effective household demand recovered due to the active implementation of policies aimed at the growth in the real household incomes, the turnover of retail trade has grown at the rates outpacing GDP dynamics. In 2003, the index of turnover of retail trade made 143.2 per cent as compared with its level registered in 1999, while GDP grew by 28.4 per cent.
The growing demand for industrial goods was accompanied by increasing use of transport capacities. In January through November of 2003, the commercial freight turnover grew by 7.2 per cent, while industrial output increased by 6.8 per cent. Export oriented industries had the most important impact on the changes in demand for transport services. The increase in the freight turnover of pipeline transport made 8.1 per cent as compared with the figures registered in January through October of 2002, while the amount of oil freight increased by 12.5 per cent, oil products – by 9.1 per cent, and natural gas – by 7.9 per cent. Oil export capacity grew due to the commissioning of the second stage of the Baltic pipeline system able to transport up to 18 million metric tons of oil. As concerns the rates of growth in freight of staple goods by the railroad transport, oil, oil products, ferrous and non-ferrous ores, and products of ferrous metallurgy retain their leading positions.
In 2003, there was observed a growing demand for communications services. In January through November of 2003, the rates of increase in rendered communications services made 21.8 per cent exceeding the figures registered in the preceding year by 6.4 p. p. New communications operators account for about 3/of the total amount of communications services and more than half of household communications services.
--Транспорт Связь Торговля Производство услуг Fig. 1. Changes in rates of growth in services sector in 1999 through 2003, in % of the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year.
2кв 3кв 4кв 2кв 3кв 4кв 2кв 3кв 4кв 2кв 3кв 4кв 2кв 3кв 1кв/1кв\1кв\1кв\1кв\The ratio between production and construction most significantly affects the changes in the structure of output in the sector of goods. The positive dynamics of development of construction registered since the 3rd quarter of 1999 has been supported by growing output of capital goods and increasing investment in fixed assets. The growth in the revenues of the economy observed in 2000 through 2001, which was caused by improving efficiency of external economic operations and increasing capacity of the domestic market gave an additional impetus to the growth in demand for construction works. Over this period, the average annual rates of increase in construction works made 13.4 per cent, while the respective indicator in industry was registered at 8.3 per cent. In 2001 through 2002, there was observed a gradual slowdown of the rates of industrial development to 4.2 per cent caused by gradual decline in exports and the relative deterioration of the price situation on the world market. The investment sphere reacted to the changes of the situation on the domestic market with a lag, but more sharply. To a certain degree these developments may be explained by the higher sluggishness of the investment complex functioning in the structure of the national economy.
Stagnation of investment activities observed in the 1st quarter of 2002 determined the slack dynamics of growth in construction works and production of capital goods. In 2002, there was registered the minimal level of growth in construction output over the period of recovery and made 2.7 per cent.
The negative impact of low investment demand on the dynamics of industrial development observed in 2002 was strengthened by the fact that, on the one hand, the potential of growth at the expense of utilization of competitive reserve capacities has been exhausted and, on the other hand, the present technologies and the state of fixed assets facilitated the trend towards a decline in efficiency of utilization of both labor and capital.
In 2003, the qualitative specifics of economy was the transition to the investment model of growth. At the same time, it should be noted that this development was facilitated by the forming trend towards an increase in labor productivity and transformational shifts in the structure of employment and demand for labor.
According to the results of the first three quarters of 2003, the increase in labor productivity made abou5 7.per cent, while over 2002 the changes in this indicator made from 0.2 per cent (1st quarter) to 3.6 per cent (4th quarter). According to the data obtained in the course of sample surveys of employment conducted in (Goskomstat), the size of employment in the economy declined by 0.5 million persons in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year and made 65.8 million persons. The coefficient of tension (the number of unemployed citizens registered with employment agencies per vacancy) increased from 1.3 to 1.7. Enterprises pursue rather active policies aimed at the restructuring of employment and enhancing of efficiency of labor time utilization. As compared with the figures registered in January through September of 2002, the number of part time employees (working only a part of the working week or working day) decreased by 24 per cent, at the same time, the number of workers on mandatory administrative leaves declined by 387 thousand, or 25 per cent.
The decline in employment was registered primarily in industries manufacturing goods, while in the sector of services the employment increased by 271 thousand persons. According to the estimates published by the Ministry of Economic Development, in January through June the growth in labor productivity in industry made 112.1 per cent and outpaced the output dynamics by 5.3 p. p. A growth in productivity of labor is registered across practically all industries and is accompanied by changes in the dynamics and structure of demand for labor. As concerns the fuel and energy, metallurgical, and chemistry and forestry complexes, there the outpacing rate of labor productivity in comparison with wages and salaries is supported at the expense of improving efficiency of labor. Exactly in these industries there was registered the most massive reduction of jobs as compared with the figures observed in the respective month of 2002.
A decline in demand for labor occurs at the background of significant growth in profits of enterprises and increase in their investment activity. The comparison of the data on employment size across industries and other macroeconomic indicators demonstrates that increasing productivity of labor, especially in the sector of production of goods, allows enterprises to diminish labor costs via the restructuring of employment. The share of persons dismissed due to redundancy, liquidation of organizations or own businesses decreases at the background of the growing share of inexperienced and untrained persons. At the same time, while the general trend towards decrease in the number of jobs persists, the demand for skilled labor grows. The stronger impact of these factors is the reflection of the receptivity of the modern national economy to new market signals and is extremely important for further economic growth.
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