Dynamics of Brent Oil In December, an improvement in the business situation was observed on the world stock markets. For instance, according to the results of three weeks of the month (year) the US stock indices NASDAQ and S&P500 increased by 1.42 per cent (42.37 per cent) and 4.18 per cent (20.63 per cent). The DJIA index also demonstrated positive dynamics – the rate of increase according to the results of the month (year) made 6.per cent (20.22 per cent). European stock indices also demonstrated positive rates of growth: FTSE 100 (UK) grew during the month (year) by 1.33 per cent (10.89 per cent), DAX 30 (Germany), by 5.13 per cent (26.per cent), CAC-40 (France), by 2.58 per cent (9.79 per cent). The Asian stock markets were characterized by the following changes in their respective indicators over the month (year): Nikkei-225 (Japan) grew by 4.per cent (19.04 per cent) during the month (year), while Seoul Composite (South Korea), by 6.4 per cent (21.29 per cent). On the markets of developing countries there was observed a certain improvement of the business situation, what was demonstrated by an increase in the composite index calculated by the agency MSCI – according to the results of the month (year) it grew by 7.38 per cent (36.01 per cent).
According to the results of the first trading week of the month, the quotations on the US stock market were characterized by different trends, what could be explained by contradictory economic statistics indicating a significant decline in the rates of growth in the US economy. However, a number of positive statistical reports and positive corporate news published over the two next weeks of the month facilitated a growth in prices of the stocks of US companies. The meeting of the FRS Open Market Committee, which retained the US interest rate at the same level. However, negative factors, among which there should be mentioned the dollars per barrel 13.01.12.02.18.03.17.04.28.05.30.06.30.07.29.08.30.09.30.10.further depreciation of the US dollar against Euro and growth in oil and gold prices, were also at work on the market.
190% Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq Composite 170% The RTS Index 150% 130% 110% 90% 70% 50% Generally speaking, as before the dynamics of stock markets in Europe echoed the situation on the US market. On the one hand, at the background of high world oil prices shares in oil companies were in demand, what facilitated a growth in European stock indicators. At the same time, the weakening of the dollar against Euro on the world forex market has an extremely negative effect on export oriented companies of the European Union, whose competitiveness deteriorates.
The OAO Sibneft On December 18, the company Millhouse Capital appointed the company Citygroup as the advisor on the issues pertaining to the cancellation of the merger between YUKOS and Sibneft. Major YUKOS shareholders and the company Millhouse Capital have reached an agreement in the framework of which 92.
per cent of shares in Sibneft, at present owned by YUKOS, should be returned to the previous major shareholders.
The OAO Mosenergo The Board of Directors of the RAO UES of Russia approved the plans relating to the reorganization of the OAO Mosenergo. It is planned to reform the company in accordance with the base reorganization variant set forth in the RAO UES of Russia Strategy “5 + 5.” It is envisaged that in the process of reorganization of the OAO Mosenergo there will be created four generating companies (on the base of GRES – 4, GRES – 5, GRES – 24, and Zagorsk GAES respectively, which, according to the executive order of the RF Government should be integrated in the composition of wholesale generating companies), the city and oblast distributing companies (power supply networks), a heating network company, a selling, management, and main network companies, as well as companies carrying out construction, design, repair, and other services by separating these companies from the Mosenergo. All other assets shall remain in the reorganized OAO Mosenergo, including 17 electrical power plants.
In accordance with the Agreements, after the reorganization of the company the Governments of the city of Moscow and the Moscow oblast will be granted the right to increase their shares in respective network companies up to and over 51 per cent via new issues of shares. The plan of reform envisages that 01.11.24.11.17.12.09.01.01.02.24.02.19.03.11.04.04.05.27.05.19.06.12.07.04.08.27.08.19.09.12.10.04.11.27.11.20.12.shareholders of the RAO UES of Russia should directly participate in the authorized capital of the Moscow generating company, Moscow oblast power supply network company, and repair enterprises.
The OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel The gold mining company “Polyus,” 100 per cent of shares in which owns the GMK Norilsk Nickel, won the auction for the right to use for prospecting and extraction of gold ore at the “Titimukhta” deposit. The final bidding of the winner amounted Rub. 298 million 850 thousand 200, while the starting price was set at Rub. 7 million 286 thousand 200. The license shall be valid for a 20 year term. The license requires that the company should complete the prospecting of the deposit before the end of 2005 and operate at the full capacity not later than in 2007. It is planned that after the enterprise is in full operation, “Polyus” should extract not less than 2 metric tons of gold a year.
The “Titimukhta” deposit (situated in the North Yenisei district of the Krasnoyarsk krai) was discovered in 1990. Five ore solids were detected within the ore zone. The balance sheet gold reserves make 34 metric tons 278 kilograms. The average percentage of gold in the ore is estimated to be at 2.2 to 9.5 gram per metric ton. The deposit is designated for open mining.
The OAO NK YUKOS At its meeting held on October 28, 2003, the extraordinary meeting of the company’s shareholders took the decision to pay dividends for the first 9 months of 2003 in amount of RUR 59.9 billion, what makes RUR 26.78 per one ordinary share. According to the decision of the shareholders’ meeting, the dividends will be paid before February 28, 2004, to the NK YUKOS shareholders registered in the register of shareholders as on September 25, 2003.
Table Dynamics f International Stock Market Indices Change within the Change since the Data as of December 23, 2003 Value month (%) beginning of the year (%) 568.22 10.17% 57.49% RTS (Russia) 10341.26 6.09% 20.22% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 1974.78 1.42% 42.37% Nasdaq Composite (USA) 1096.02 4.18% 20.63% S&P 500 (USA) 4440.9 1.33% 10.89% FTSE 100 (UK) 3903.34 5.13% 26.20% DAX-30 (Germany) 3500.09 2.58% 9.79% CAC-40 (France) 5417.2 2.12% 10.57% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 10372.51 4.14% 19.04% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 21688.4 10.14% 86.97% Bovespa (Brazil) 8607.96 5.43% 37.65% IPC (Mexico) 1468.53 3.24% 42.55% IPSA (Chile) 1720.92 3.24% 28.43% Straits Times (Singapore) 801.88 6.40% 21.29% Seoul Composite (South Korea) 18242.01 24.80% 68.32% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 430.639 7.38% 36.01% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index The Foreign Exchange Market. The US $ depreciation against the Ruble may be primarily explained by the growth in the volumes of Russia’s exports. On the other hand, an important factor behind the US $ dynamics is the inflow of foreign capital caused by the growth observed in the national economy and higher attractiveness of Russian assets. An important factor significantly affecting the exchange rate fixing was a sharp depreciation of the US $ against Euro. Throughout the period from November 29 till December 24, the US $ exchange rate decreased by more than 49 kopecks making RUR 29.245 per US $.
In the period from December 01 till December 19, the total volume of trade in the US Dollar at the SELT was US $ 9.97 billion (the average daily turnover made US $ 712.2 million over this period), increasing in comparison with the respective figures registered in November of 2003. During the period under review the highest volume of trade in the US Dollar, about US $ 1.6 billion, was observed on December 15 (about US $ 1 billion in November); the lowest results, US $ 328.15 million, were observed on December 2.
Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2002-37.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 36.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.FIGURE 9.
Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 22.214.171.124.126.96.36.199.Ruble liquidity in the banking sector significantly increased in December of 2003 as compared to the November level, on December 24 the balances in credit institutions' accounts with the Bank of Russia were at RUR 233.5 billion, what was practically two times above the average levels registered in the end of November.
roubles 03.12.02.01.01.02.03.03.02.04.02.05.01.06.01.07.31.07.30.08.29.09.29.10.28.11.USD/EURO 01.12.31.12.30.01.01.03.31.03.30.04.30.05.29.06.29.07.28.08.27.09.27.10.26.11.On the world forex markets, during the month on the whole there was observed a continuing depreciation of US $ against Euro. Among the key factors affecting the dynamics of US $, there should be noted the reduction of the interest rates in the USA and the growing deficit of the current account and the US budget.
On the world forex markets, the rate of the Euro grew against the Dollar by 5 cents (by 4.37 per cent as compared with the US $ / Euro exchange rate registered on November 28) and according to the data as on December 23 made US $ / Euro 1.241.
The dynamics of the Euro - Ruble rate were mainly determined by the trends on the world market. The strengthening of the Euro against the US Dollar in the world markets was followed by an increase in the Euro - Ruble rate observed in December. In the period from November 28 till December 23 the European currency grew by 78 kopecks (2.19 per cent) from the level of RUR / Euro 35.5 to RUR / Euro 36.28. The total turnover of trade at the SELT amounted to Euro 91.7 million in the period from December 01 till December 19 (in November: Euro 117.4 million). The highest trade volume of Euro was registered on December 18 at Euro 8.38 million, and the lowest, Euro 3.84 million, on December 1.
Table Financial Markets Indicators Month August September October November Dec.* Monthly inflation rate -0,4% 0,3% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% Inflation rate annualized on the basis of this -4,70% 3,66% 12,68% 12,68% 14,03% month's trend CB RF refinancing rate 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% Annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues (%) 6,54% 6,15% 7,26% 6,74% 7,1% Volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ 13,00 12,87 14,60 5,02 12,market for the month (RUR billion) Yield to maturity on Minfin bonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 5th tranche 6,00% 5,68% 6,10% 5,99% 5,6% 6th tranche 4,61% 4,26% 4,38% 4,36% 4,1% 7th tranche 6,92% 6,55% 7,08% 7,09% 6,5% 8th tranche 5,60% 4,96% 5,17% 5,09% 4,9% Yield to maturity of Eurobonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 2005 3,35% 2,93% 3,22% 3,16% 3,0% 2007 4,81% 4,35% 4,65% 4,66% 4,4% 2010 6,09% 5,70% 5,98% 5,92% 5,8% 2018 7,28% 6,85% 7,26% 7,19% 6,9% 2028 7,64% 7,26% 7,57% 7,50% 7,3% 2030 7,81% 7,46% 7,75% 7,57% 7,3% INSTAR-MIACR rate (% p.a.) on interbank 3,9% 22,0% 9,76% 7,75% 2,0% overnight loans at the end of the month Official RUR / US$ exchange rate at the end of 30,5036 30,6119 29,8584 29,7387 29,the month Official RUR / Euro exchange rate at the end of 33,2001 35,0751 34,8657 35,5021 36,the month Average annualized growth in RUR / US$ 0,81% 0,36% -2,46% -0,40% -1,64% exchange rate Average annualized growth in RUR / Euro -4,13% 5,65% -0,60% 1,83% 2,67% exchange rate Volume of trading at the stock market in the 329,97 490,78 867,33 374,55 RTS for the month (US$ million) Value of RTS-1 Index at the end of the month 531,00 568,97 513,96 529,27 Change in value of RTS-1 Index during the 16,19% 7,15% -9,67% 2,98% 7,7% month (%) * Estimate D. Polevoy Corporatization and maintenance of state control in the corporate sector in 2000 though the first six months of 2003.
Corporatization, as a privatization method, played a significant role at the stage of mass privatization (1992 through 1994) and over first two to three years of cash privatization (in 1995 through 1997), however, later the sales of shares of enterprises was used less frequently. It would suffice to mention that in the last three years (in 2000 through 2002) in the course of privatization there were established less than 450 joint stock companies, what is below the figures registered in 1997. In 2003, the process of corporatization somewhat recovered. In the first six months 114 state and municipally owned unitary enterprises (without federal enterprises subject to privatization by the RF Property Ministry) were transformed into public joint stock companies, what is almost 1.7 times above the value of this indicator registered in the respective period of the preceding year.
As it is apparent basing on the data presented above, the role of corporatization as a special type of privatization has not been so significant over the three last years15 as in the preceding period. However, there should be noted certain characteristics of formation of the share capital of privatized enterprises over this period. One of the most important features of this process was the degree to which the state maintained its property control after the enterprise was formally transferred to the corporate sector (see Table 1).
Table Creation of joint stock companies, where state participation was maintained in the course of privatization in Russia in 1997 through Period Number of enterprises where a block of Number of enterprises subject to the shares was owned by the state or a special right “Golden share” municipal entity units share in the total units share in the total number of created number of created JSC, % JSC, % 1997 84 16,9 58 11,1998 142 39,4 28 7,1999 101 39,1 42 16,1997-1999 327* 29,4* 128* 11,5* 2000 72 36,2 8 4,2001 59 47,2 2 1,2002 38 30,4 1 0,2000-2002 169* 37,6* 11* 2,4* 2003, I half year … … 1 0,* - calculated as the sum of values registered in each year over the indicated period and does not represent the number of JSC with state participation by the beginning of 2000 and 2003, since some of the previously assigned blocks of shares have been sold.
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