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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES December 2003 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2003 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 02079 19 2000 .

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru The State of the Federal Budget......................................................................................................................... 3 Special VAT accounts in Russia: an analysis of possible consequences........................................................... 6 Monetary Policy............................................................................................................................................... 14 Financial Markets............................................................................................................................................ 16 Corporatization and maintenance of state control in the corporate sector in 2000 though the first six months of 2003............................................................................................................................. 26 Investment in the Real Sector.......................................................................................................................... 30 Foreign investment in the Russia's economy................................................................................................... 31 The Real Sector: Factors and Trends............................................................................................................... 36 IET Business Survey: Industry in December................................................................................................... 38 Oil and natural gas sector................................................................................................................................. 39 New regime of sugar market regulation in Russia........................................................................................... Foreign Trade................................................................................................................................................... Grant financing of Russian science: trends and assessments........................................................................... Education......................................................................................................................................................... Forecasting certain macroeconomic indicators................................................................................................ The State of the Federal Budget In the first ten months of 2003, the revenues of the state budget (cash execution) made 19.5 per cent of GDP, while expenditures made 16.8 per cent of GDP (see Table 1). Therefore, the federal budget surplus made 2.6 p. p. of GDP.

Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % of GDP1, in comparable prices) X`02 XI`02 XII`02 I`03 II`03 III`03 IV`03 V`03 VI`03 VII`03 VIII`03 IX`03 X`03 XI`Revenues Corporate profit tax 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Personal income tax 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% VAT, special tax and excises 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% Tax on foreign trade and foreign trade operations 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 11.2% 10.1% 9.9% 9.6% 9.6% 9.2% 9.1% 8.9% 8.7% 8.6% Other taxes, duties and payments 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 8.5% 7.4% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 6.9% 6.9% 6.8% 6.7% 6.6% Total- taxes and charges 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% Non- tax revenues 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% Revenues, total 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 0.5% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Expenditure 18.6% 18.5% 18.6% 18.8% 19.0% 19.4% 19.6% 19.4% 18.8% 18.7% 18.4% 18.0% 17.9% Public administration 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 17.5% 8.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% National defense 20.2% 20.1% 20.1% 20.8% 20.6% 20.9% 21.0% 21.3% 20.6% 20.4% 20.0% 19.6% 19.5% 19.4% International activities Judicial power 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Law enforcement and security activities 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 1.5% 2.1% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% Fundamental research 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% -0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Services provided for the national economy 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Social services 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Servicing of public debt 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Other expenditure 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% Expenditure, total 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% Loans, redemption exclusive 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 2.9% 3.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% Expenditure and loans, redemption exclusive 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 6.6% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.0% 6.9% 6.8% Budget deficit (-) 17.8% 18.0% 18.7% 12.7% 16.4% 17.7% 17.7% 17.7% 17.5% 17.4% 17.3% 17.1% 16.8% 17.0% Domestic financing 2.4% 2.1% 1.4% 8.1% 4.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% 3.0% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% Other taxes, duties and payments -0.5% -0.2% 0.6% -6.6% -1.7% -1.0% -1.0% -0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% -0.1% -0.1% Total- taxes and charges -1.9% -1.9% -2.0% -1.4% -2.5% -2.2% -2.3% -3.1% -3.3% -3.0% -2.9% -2.7% -2.5% -2.3% Non- tax revenues -2.4% -2.1% -1.4% -8.1% -4.2% -3.2% -3.3% -3.6% -3.0% -3.0% -2.7% -2.5% -2.6% -2.4% * % ; ** As compared with the figures registered in January through October of 2002, the budget revenues decreased by 0.7 p. p. of GDP in January through October of 2003, while expenditures increased by 1.0 p. p.

and budget surplus respectively increased by 0.2 p. p. of GDP. At the same time, without SST the budgetary revenues decreased by 0.3 p. p. of GDP and made 16.8 per cent of GDP. VAT accounted for the major share of federal tax revenues 36.9 per cent of the total tax revenues what is practically at the level observed in the respective period of 2002.

According to preliminary estimates, the cash execution of federal budget revenues made 19.4 per cent of GDP in January through November of 2003, what is by 0.5 p. p of GDP below the respective level observed in January through November of 2002. At the same time, the cash execution of expenditures made 17.0 per cent of GDP (18.0 per cent of GDP in 2002); therefore, over 11 months of 2003, the surplus made 2.4 per cent of GDP).

According to the preliminary estimates of the Finance Ministry, in terms of fulfilled funding2 the expenditures of the federal budget in January through November of 2003 made 18.1 per cent of GDP (see Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may be subject to revision.

Table 2), while on December 1 of 2002 this indicator was at 19.4 p. p. of GDP. The amount of revenues of the federal budget decreased by 0.7 per cent of GDP in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year and made 19.4 per cent of GDP in January through November of 2003. Therefore, the surplus of the federal budget in terms of fulfilled funding in the first ten months of has increased by 0.6 p. p. in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2002 and made 1.3 per cent of GDP.

Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, fulfilled funding).

XI`02 XII`02 I`03 II`03 III`03 IV03 V03 VI03 VII03 VIII`03 IX`03 X`03 XI`Total 20.1% 20.1% 20.8% 20.6% 20.9% 21.0% 21.3% 20.6% 20.4% 20.0% 19.6% 19.5% 19.4% Public administration 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% National defense 2.9% 2.6% 2.5% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% International activities 0.3% 0.3% -0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Judicial power 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Law enforcement and security activities 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Fundamental research 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Services provided for the national economy 1.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% Social services 5.8% 5.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% Servicing of public debt 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 2.9% 3.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% Other expenditure 4.0% 3.8% 6.8% 7.5% 7.3% 7.2% 7.4% 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% Total expenditure 19.4% 18.7% 16.8% 20.5% 20.9% 20.2% 19.9% 19.2% 18.8% 18.6% 18.3% 18.0% 18.1% (+) / (-) 0.7% 1.4% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% According to the estimates of the Revenue Ministry, in November of 2003 tax revenues of the federal budget made about Rb. 105.7 billion (without the single social tax). In real terms the revenues made 231.per cent of the level registered in January of 1999, while the respective indicator was at 241.0 per cent in 2002 and 247.3 per cent in 2001 (see Table 3).

It should be noted that in November of 2003 the revenues generated by the single social tax made Rb. 29.billion. Thus, in November of 2003 the RF Revenue Ministry transferred to the federal budget taxes and fees amounting to about Rb. 135 billion, what was by 0.8 per cent above the months target.

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999)3.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% 2002* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 239,6% 218,0% 284,4% 246,5% 254,8% 299,7% 241,0% 250,2% 2003* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI 230,0% 229,2% 265,5% 280.4% 233.2% 240.0% 260.4% 242.6% 248.7% 265.6% 231,0% * .

The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable. January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% Profit tax VAT 60% 50% 40% Fig. 1. Real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to July 1999) The dynamics of real arrears relating to major taxes since January of 2000 are presented in Fig. 1.

The debts related to the payments due to the federal budget made for VAT Rb. 251.5 billion as on November 1, 2003, increasing by Rub. 3.3 billion in October of 2003, while the arrears of the profit tax increased by Rb. 0.4 billion and made about Rb. 28.4 billion. On the whole, a gradual decrease in the level of accumulated arrears observed since early 2001 to the second half of 2003 was replaced by the stabilization of the level of accumulated indebtedness as concerns both the profit tax, and VAT.

Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expenditures 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expenditures 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expenditures 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar ' Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec I II III IV V VI VII VIII I XI XII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Expenditures 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% 25,2% 25,4% 25,4% 25,5% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% 31,7% 32,0% 32,1% 32,1% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% 28,4% 29,3% 29,7% 31,1% Deficit 14,6% 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% 3,3% 2,7% 2,4% 1,0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Taxes 25,6% 24,4% 25,6% 27,4% 27.1% 26.0% 26.1% 25.7% 5.1% 25.1% Revenues 32,0% 30,3% 31,5% 33,4% 33.6% 32.2% 32.2% 31.6% 1.0% 0.9% Expenditures 20,7% 25,3% 27,7% 28,8% 28.8% 28.6% 28.7% 28.5% 8.3% 27.9% Deficit 11,3% 5,0% 3,8% 4,5% 4.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 3.0% * The revenues of the consolidated budget in September of 2003 made 30.9 per cent of GDP, including tax revenues (without SST) at 25.1 per cent of GDP (see Table 4). Expenditures of the consolidated budget decreased by 0.4 p. p. in comparison with the figures registered in September of 2002 and made 27.9 per cent of GDP. As on September 1, 2003, the surplus of the consolidated budget made 3.0 per cent of GDP, what is by 0.3 p. p. of GDP above the level observed in the respective period of 2002.

A. Razin, S. Ponomarenko.

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