As concerns non-ferrous metallurgy, the evaluations over the whole period indicate a positive relationship between producers’ prices and tariffs on natural gas supply and rail freight, as well as prices of gasoline (the coefficients make about 0.011, 0.03, and 0.02 respectively). Evaluation of similar models for sub-periods demonstrates that significant relationships are observed only for tariffs on rail freight and gasoline prices in the first sub-period – respective coefficients make 0.09 and 0.15. Tariffs on electric power were statistically insignificant with regard to producers’ prices in non-ferrous metallurgy, as in the case of ferrous metallurgy.
On the whole, the significance of tariffs on rail freight for producers’ prices in ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy indicates the importance of this type of expenditures in the structure of production costs.
External factors (world prices of metals and exchange rate) also have a statistically significant impact on producers’ prices in non-ferrous metallurgy – the respective rates of increase in the indicators are statistically significant in the equation for the rates of increase of producers’ prices in non-ferrous metallurgy. As concerns chemical industry, the only stable significant positive relationship is that of producers’ prices to tariffs on electric power (the coefficient makes 0.23 to 0.39 for the whole period and sub-periods). In the case of the second sub-period (and the whole period) there is observed also a significant positive dependence of producers’ prices on the prices of gasoline (the coefficient makes about 0.08).
The evaluation of models concerning the rates of increase in producers’ prices in mechanical engineering show that there is a significant positive relationship to the rates of increase in tariffs on electric power (according to the model, a 1 % increase in tariffs results in an increase in producers’ prices in mechanical engineering by 0.06 %), and the rate of increase in prices of gasoline (the coefficient makes 0.013).
Evaluations for the first sub-period demonstrate that the coefficient of the tariffs on electric power makes about 0.32. In the same sub-period, the coefficient of rail freight, which makes 0.19, is also significant and positive. In the second sub-period, no significant positive dependence of producers’ prices on the respective tariffs in mechanical engineering could be detected.
On the whole, it may be noted that statistically significant impact of electric power tariffs on producers’ prices was observed in fuel industry, chemistry, and mechanical engineering. It may be also noted that coefficients of tariffs on electricity are higher in comparison with coefficients of tariffs on natural gas, rail freight, and gasoline prices. This fact reflects the considerable share of electricity costs in the structure of expenditures in these industries and characterizes the degree of influence of changes in tariffs on producers’ prices – a 1 % growth in tariffs results in an increase in producers’ prices from 0.06 % in mechanical engineering to 0.36 % in chemical industry.
Econometric modeling of industrial output indices across industries. Indicators characterizing changes in costs resulting from growth in prices of utilized resources, beside affecting producers’ prices across industries, may also result in changes in production due to decline in demand for products of industries because of price hikes. Accordingly, an increase in tariffs on electric power, products of other natural monopolies, and prices of fuel may result in decline in output of certain industries, primarily those where a considerable share of costs in the expenditures structure is related to these factors.
Another group of variables able to influence the volumes of output are variables characterizing internal and external demand. In order to model the influence internal demand, in this study we will use real household incomes changes in which may characterize changes in the aggregate demand in the economy at large. Accordingly, an increase in internal demand may result in a growth in the volumes of output. In order to evaluate the impact of factors of external demand, in the model of production indices broken down by individual industries there was also used real exchange rate as a parameter characterizing the competitive power of products of Russia’s enterprises with regard to imported goods or products of competitors on world markets, as well as world prices of products of exporting industries, under the assumption that an increase in world prices may stimulated an increase in supply on the world market and, accordingly, an increase in output. Besides, in the equation there was added net exports, which indirectly reflect the value of demand for Russia’s products on the part of other countries9.
The results of evaluations of the model of rates of increase in indices of industrial output including the factors mentioned above demonstrate that only electric power tariffs have a significant (negative) impact on the rates of increase in the index of industrial output (a 1 % increase in tariffs, according to the model In practice, taking into account the specifics of the Russia’s exports, which mainly consist of mineral resources, there are certain constraints on the transport capacity, i.e. the possibility to increase certain exports in a short time period.
evaluations, result in a decline in output by 0.18 %). The results of the model evaluations for sub-periods demonstrated that a significant negative relationship between rates of increase in industrial output and the rates of increase in tariffs on electric power is observed only in the first sub-period (1995/01-1998/07). In the same sub-period, there is observed a significant positive relationship to the rates of increase in real household incomes (a factor of demand). In the second sub-period (1999/01-2001/12), all coefficients were statistically insignificant.
The results of evaluations across industries demonstrate that the rates of increase in household incomes have a significant positive impact on the rates of increase in indices of industrial output across industries (as concerns fuel industry, chemistry, and mechanical engineering). In the period under observation, electric power tariffs have a significant negative impact on the rates of growth in production in non-ferrous metallurgy and mechanical engineering (coefficients make –0.39 and -0.58 respectively). Evaluations of the model in two sub-periods (1995/01-1998/07 and 1999/01-2001/12) demonstrate similar results with the exception of the second sub-period, where a significant negative dependence of the rates of increase in tariffs on electric power is observed only in fuel industry (the coefficient makes –0.17 %).
Additionally, in the framework of the study there was carried out an analysis of the impact of effective electric power tariffs on prices and output in the economy at large, i.e. tariffs taking into account the balance of debtor and creditor indebtedness of power engineering per kilowatt-hour of energy supplied to consumers.
The analysis of dynamics of mutual indebtedness indicates that, as it seems, since about the spring of 1999, the UES became a net debtor credited at the expense of other sectors of the economy. It means that in the case the total amount of outstanding creditor and debtor indebtedness is taken into account, since 1999 the effective price of electric power on the average has exceeded the nominal price. It also means that in the last years the payments for electrical power have been rapidly growing: by increasing the balance of indebtedness to the economy and simultaneously decreasing the share of barter in payments, UES tried not only to establish discipline of contractual payments, but also mobilize necessary funds to settle the sectoral problems in the situation of lagging behind indexation of tariffs.
P. Kadochnikov Foreign Trade.
In October of 2002, the Russia’s foreign trade turnover increased by 25 % in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year and made US R 15.96 billion. Such a significant growth may be explained by the increase in the amounts of both exports and imports. As compared with the indicators of the preceding month, the foreign trade turnover increased by 6 %.
Figure 1. Main indicators of Russia’s foreign trade (in US $ bln.) -1997 г. 1998 г. 1999 г. 2000 г. 2001 г. 2002 г.
Сальдо Экспорт Импорт Source: RF Goskomstat Апр.
Июль Июль Июль Июль Июль Июль In October, exports made US $ 10.21 billion, what is by 27.7 % above the level registered in the respective month of 2001. At the same time, the share of countries outside CIS was at about the level of October of 2001 (83.8 %).
The growth in exports may be explained both by the continuing increase in volumes of export, and the favorable business situation of the world market. According to IMF, in October of 2002 world prices of staple Russian exports were by 6 % above the level registered in the same month of the preceding year.
The situation on the world oil market was unstable in October. In the first 2 weeks of the month oil prices remained rather high. However, since the third week of the month there was observed a downfall in prices, resulting from the oil deliveries exceeding established quotas on the part of certain OPEC member countries.
According to the International Energy Agency, 10 OPEC member countries exceeded their respective daily quota of oil extraction (21.7 million barrels) by 2.5 million barrels in October. Besides, the indicators published in the weekly report of the US Oil Institute had a negative impact on prices. According to the report, the reserves of crude oil in the USA increased by 6.8 million barrels by the end of the month making 286.2 million barrels. This indicator is rather significant taking into account the beginning of the heating season, when oil reserves in consuming countries traditionally decline. As a result of the influence of the factors mentioned above, in October the average price of BRENT oil decreased by 3.8 % in comparison with the figures registered in September, while the price of URALS fell by 4.1 %. However, as compared with the last October figures, the price of BRENT oil increased by 26.8 % and made US $ 27.2 per barrel, while URALS price grew by 31.3 % and made US $ 26 per barrel.
It shall be noted that natural gas prices demonstrated an upward trend in the last three months of this year.
In October, import prices of Russian natural gas on West European markets increased by 14.3 % as compared with the figures observed in September, while in comparison with the level registered in October of 2001 the prices grew by 56.4 %.
In October of 2002, there were registered no significant changes in prices on the majority of key markets of non-ferrous metals as compared with the September figures. At the same time, in comparison with the levels observed in October of 2001, there was registered a considerable growth: aluminum prices increased by 8.1 %, nickel prices grew by 41.4 %, while price of copper increased by 2.5 %.
Table The average monthly world prices in October of the respective year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Oil (Brent), USD / metric ton 24,08 17,9 12,8 24,1 32,14 21,45 27,Natural gas, USD / thous. m3 2,742 2,346 2,205 2,558 5,767 2,649 4,Gasoline, USD / metric ton 0,6704 0,5695 0,4205 0,6986 0,8945 0,603 0,Copper, USD / metric ton 1968,5 1900,7 1659,2 1748,1 1838,6 1405,1 1519,Aluminum, USD / metric ton 1341,1 1538,5 1354,2 1470,7 1473,5 1280,8 1313,Nickel, USD / metric ton 7060,9 6240,5 4262,4 7984,2 7353,2 4836,8 6840,Source: calculated in accordance to the data presented by London Metal Exchange (UK), International Oil Exchange (London) The average weighted rate of customs duties declined from 10 % to 6.5 % in 2002. More than 200 rates of export duties were decreased and about 500 abolished. In 2002, the damages of domestic exporters resulting from protective measures introduced on external markets could be minimized – the total amount of damages declined by US $ 150 million. For instance, in the USA there was suspended the antidumping investigation concerning Russian exports of plate steel due to the fact that US recognized the market status of the Russia’s economy.
In October of 2002, the export of all types of steel products from Russia to USA increased by 68 % in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding month – from 132 thousand metric tons to thousand metric tons (according to the US Department of Trade). As concerns the results of the period from January till October, Russia was ranked 4th among the largest exporters of steel to the US market after Canada (4.5 million metric tons), Brazil (3 million metric tons), and Mexico (2.88 million metric tons). For the first time in the first 10 months of this year, 1.37 million metric tons of steel were exported from the RF to the USA.
In October of 2002, the real Ruble / US $ exchange rate exceeded the level registered in the respective month of 2001 by 5 %. Besides, the level of GDP increased by 4.0 % in comparison with the figures observed in October of 2001. A stronger national currency and a growth of incomes in the economy were objective factors behind higher levels of imports. On the other hand, as Euro became by 9 % stronger in relation to US $, prices of Europe-made goods increased and, accordingly, constrained a growth in the volume of Russian imports form the European zone.
As a result of impact of these and other factors, in October of 2002 the amount of imported goods increased by 19.6 % in comparison with the level registered in the same month of 2001 and made US $ 5.billion. At the same time the growth in imports from countries outside CIS was even higher and made 23.%. The share of these countries in imports grew from 78 % in October of 2001 to 81 % in October of 2002.
The active balance of trade made US $ 4.46 billion as compared with US $ 3.19 billion registered in October of 2001 and US $ 4.72 billion in the preceding month.
In December of 2002, the next round of talks concerning the accession of Russia to the World Trade Organization (WTO) was held in Geneva. No compromise could be reached concerning a number of issues.
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