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In December of 2002, no significant fluctuations were observed on the RF foreign exchange market. The exchange rate fluctuated in a narrow corridor between RUR / US $ 31.84 to 31.86. The overall growth in the US $ exchange rate was 0.26 kop. (0.0082 %) from RUR / US $ 31.8424 (on 29.11.2002) to RUR / US $ 31.845 (on 20.12.2002). According to preliminary estimates, the volume of trade in US $ in the SELT amounted to circa RUR 90 billion.

The demand for US $ stabilized in December due to the measures taken by the RF Central Bank. The supply of foreign exchange somewhat increased because exporters do not have to sell foreign exchange directly to the RF CBR (since the beginning of December). A certain increase in activity of trade in the SELT occurred due to the decrease in commission for currency transactions and the abolishment of the mandatory 100 % cash deposit.

Figure 7. Dynamics of official Ruble exchange rate (US $ and Euro) in 2002 33,32,32,31,31,30, 30, 29, 29,28, 28,27, 27,26,26,0 01. 15. 29. 12. 26. 12. 26. 09. 23. 07. 21. 04. 18. 02. 16. 30. 13. 27. 10. 24. 08. 22. 05. 19. 03. 17.

01. 01. 01. 02. 02. 03. 03. 04. 04. 05. 05. 06. 06. 07. 07. 07. 08. 08. 09. 09. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12.

02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 Figure 7. Dynamics of Euro/Dollar Exchange rate on the world forex markets 1,1,1,1,0,0,0, 0, 0, 0,/ 0, 0, 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,01081522290512192605.121926020916233007142128.041118250209162330061320.27031017240108152229051219.2603101724.

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In the very beginning of December, Euro rate again exceeded the parity mark, and in the second half of the month its rate was above US $ / Euro 1.02. The maximal value of the rate (US $ / Euro 1.0288) was registered on December 18. The resignation of the US Secretary of the department of the Treasury and the uncertainty about the continuation of the strong dollar policy by the new Treasury administration were behind these dynamics of the exchange rate. The publication of the new macroeconomic indicators also did not facilitate an improvement in the exchange rate of the US currency.

The changes in RUR / Euro exchange rate followed the trends on the global market. The maximum value in December made RUR / Euro 32.8355 (the historical high) on December 17, 2002, the lowest value was RUR / Euro 31.621 on December 2, 2002. During the month, the RUR / Euro exchange rate changed from 31.6417 on November 11, 2002, to RUR / Euro 32.695 on December 20, 2002, i.e. by 3.33 %.

Table 2.

Financial Market Indicators Month August September October November December * Monthly inflation rate 0,1% 0,4% 1,1% 1,6% 1,8% Inflation rate annualized on the basis of this 1,21% 4,91% 14,03% 20,98% 24% month's trend CB RF refinancing rate 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% Annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues 14,45% 15,25% 14,98% 14,02% 13,5% Volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ 6,95 15,97 18,73 11,15 16,market for the month (RUR billion) Yield to maturity on Minfin bonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 4th tranche 5,60% 5,46% 4,86% 4,83% 4,5% 5th tranche 10,88% 10,13% 8,46% 7,83% 7,7% 6th tranche 9,52% 8,84% 7,04% 6,78% 6,8% 7th tranche 11,05% 10,31% 9,13% 8,50% 8,1% 8th tranche 9,81% 9,24% 7,68% 6,81% 6,6% INSTAR-MIACR rate (% p.a.) on interbank loans 5,74% 17,79% 14,89% 4,68% 2,5% at the end of the month: Overnight Official RUR / US$ exchange rate at the end of the 31,5673 31,6358 31,7408 31,8424 31,month Official RUR / Euro exchange rate at the end of 31,0938 30,9082 31,1790 31,6736 32,the month Average annualized growth in RUR / US$ 0,40% 0,22% 0,33% 0,32% -0,13% exchange rate Average annualized growth in RUR / Euro 0,95% -0,37% 0,88% 1,59% 3,4% exchange rate Volume of trading at the stock market in the RTS 239,10 263,17 324,38 260,20 for the month (US$ million) Value of RTS Index at the end of the month 337,02 340,06 358,65 361,15 Change in value of RTS Index during the month 3,31% 0,90% 5,47% 0,70% -1,7% (%) * Estimates D. Skripkin Foreign investment in the Russia's economy.

As of October 1, 2002, the accumulated foreign capital in the Russias economy, including the investment from CIS member countries, made US $ 39.8 billion. In the first 9 months of 2002, the inflow of foreign investment in the RF economy is estimated at US $ 12 905 million, what is by 32.8 % above the respective indicator registered in 2001 (in the first 9 months of 2001 investment grew by 23.2 % as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of 2000).

Foreign investment in the Russias economy in 2000 through US $ mil.

80% 70% 60% 50% In % of the respective period of the 40% preceding year 30% 1500 US $ million 20% 10% 0% --10% -20% -Source: RF Goskomstat.

A decline in the amounts of foreign direct investment is a negative factor in the Russias economy. In comparison with the pre-crisis level, the absolute values of this indicator decreased almost twofold. The major share of foreign investment in the Russias economy in 2002, similarly to previous years, consisted of other investment formed primarily at the expense of credits of international financial organizations and funds investors assign for purchase of state securities.

The structure of foreign investment in the Russia's economy in the first 9 months of the respective year.

Direct Portfolio Other Total, US $ mil.

US $ mil. in % of total US $ mil. in % of total US $ mil. in % of total 1998 9 286 2014 21,7 192 2,1 7 080 76,1999 6 467 3 132 48,4 9 0,1 3 326 51,2000 7 888 3 154 40,0 59 0,7 4 675 59,2001 9 721 2 920 30,0 292 3,0 6 509 67,2002 12 905 2 631 20,4 224 1,7 10 050 77,Source: RF Goskomstat.

The sectoral structure of foreign investment in Russia is still characterized by the leading role played by trade and industry. The investment in these two sectors made US $ 5292 million and US $ 4950 million respectively in the first 9 months of this year.

Sectoral structure of foreign investment in the Russias economy in January through September of (data in brackets relate to the period from January to September of 2001).

2 .1 . 3 . 4 . 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 1 . 2 . 3 . Sectoral structure of foreign investment in the Russias economy in January through September of 2002 (data in brackets relate to the period from January to September of 2001).

Other sectors Finance, credit, 7,7% (8,4%) insurance, pensions Industry 0,8% (1,2%) 38,4% (38,6%) General commercial activities ensuring the functioning of the market 8,8% (6,3%) Trade and public Transport and catering communications 41,0% (35,1%) 3,3% (10,4%) In the sphere of industry, foreign investors are still interested in fuel industry and metallurgy. The amount of investment in these branches made 61.2 % of the aggregate foreign investment in industry in the first months of 2002. At the same time, the growth in foreign capital invested in these branches in January through September of 2002 made 52.3 % in metallurgy and increased 2.2 times in fuel energy in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2001. Over the same period, the investment in mechanical engineering and food industry declined by 24.8 % and 19.9 % respectively. For the distribution of foreign investors by the base industries, see the Table below:

The structure of foreign investment in industry as broken down by branches in January through September of 2000 through 2002.

Change in comparison with the figures registered in the US $ mil. In % of the total respective period of the preceding year (%) 2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 Industry, total, including: 3 324 3 755 4 950 100 100 100 -3,2 13,0 31,Fuel industry 424 591 1 282 12,7 15,7 25,9 -73 39,4 116,Metallurgy 747 1 148 1 748 22,5 30,6 35,3 65,6 53,7 52,Mechanical engineering and 360 404 304 10,8 10,8 6,1 88,5 12,2 - 24,metal working Food industry 1 259 1 038 831 37,9 27,6 16,8 51,7 -17,6 - 19,Woodworking, pulp and 183 176 197 5,5 4,7 4,0 41,9 -3,8 11,paper industry Other industries 351 398 588 10,6 10,6 11,9 114 13,4 47,Source: RF Goskomstat.

Changes in the structure of foreign investment in industry made in the first 9 months of 2002 correspond to the changes in the structure of aggregate foreign investment in the Russias economy: the specific weight of direct investment decreased from 31.8 % registered in January through September of 2001 to 24.3 % in January through September of 2002, while the similar indicator for other investment increased from 64.8 % to 73.8 % respectively over the same period.

The structure of foreign investment in industry in January through September of 2002 (the data for the first 9 months of 2001 are in brackets).

2,2% (7,5%) Fuel industry 43,0% (34,1%) 54,8% (58,4%) 0,0% (0,2%) Food industry 68,4% (46,8%) 31,6% (53,0%) 0,6% (0,5%) Wood working, pulp and paper 35,2% (29,4%) 64,2% (70,1%) 3,9% (11,1%) 4,6%(7,1%) Metallurgy 91,4% (81,9%) 0,2% (0,2%) Chemistry and petro-chemistry 36,5% (60,7%) 63,4% (39,1%) 0,0% (0,3%) Mechanical engineering and metal working 23,5% (33,8%) 76,5% (65,9%) 0,0% (4,7%) Other industries 32,6% (49,6%) 67,4% (45,7%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Direct Portfolio Other The major part of foreign direct investment in industry (45.7 % of the aggregate foreign direct investment in the national economy at large) was made in fuel industry (US $ 418 million, or 34.8 % of direct investment in industry), mechanical engineering (US $ 208 million, or 17.3 %), and food industry (US $ million, or 16.2 %).

Switzerland and USA, which accounted for the major part of foreign investment in industry (about 40 %) in January through September of 2001, have considerably diminished their investment in this sector of the economy: industrial investment from Switzerland decreased from 36.7 %, from USA by 37.4 %. At the same time, the specific weight of these two countries in the total investment in industry in 2002 decreased to 16.2 %.

In 2002, investment from 93 countries exporting capitals flowed in the Russias economy (in 2001 countries). Five largest investing countries accounted for 64.5 % of the total amount of foreign investment accumulated by October 1, 2002, 60.8 % of direct accumulated investment, 65.8 % and 68.2 % of portfolio and other investment respectively.

The structure of accumulated foreign investment as broken down by major investing countries.

Accumulated by 01.10.2002 ., US $ mil. Change to 01.01.2002 ., % (*) Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other - 2,5 1,2 - 24,4 - 11,USA 5 483 4 132 68 (-1,2) (2,1) (- 1,4) (- 10,4) by 13,12,4 4,4 times 7,Germany 6 839 1 579 384 4 (14,9) (4,9) (by 13,7 (10,4) times) 3,4 - 24,3 0,0 6,France 3 393 268 0,1 3 (- 9,5) (- 24,7) (-90,0) (-7,9) 11,26,2 10,6 43,UK 4 810 2 100 140 2 570 (by 3,(42,9) (15,6) (69,7) times) - 2,8 - 0,5 - 31,6 1,Cyprus 5 158 3 709 320 1 (- 5,4) (- 0,4) (- 30,0) (- 11,2) 10,4 12,6 - 4,5 - 1,The Netherlands 2 807 2 419 21 (15,8) (16,1) (10,5) (14,7) 26,1 16,6 - 8,7 40,Other countries 11 312 5 181 452,9 5 (42,7) (22,9) (- 1,1) (74,3) 11,7 6,7 12,7 17,Total 39 802 19 388 1 386 19 (15,6) (9,3) (29,7) (21,9) * changes (as compared with the data registered on 1.10.2001) are in brackets Source: RF Goskomstat.

In the first 9 months of this year, the inflow of capital from USA declined by 31.4 % (down to US $ million), while investment from Cyprus fell by 9.3 % (US $ 1.7 billion), while the inflow of investment from the Netherlands decreased by 8.3 % (US $ 838 million). In January through September of 2002, the amount of German investment made US $ 1.7 billion, what is 2.6 times above the level registered in January through September of 2001. The respective indicators for UK made US $ 906 million (2 times above the level of 2001).

Russias economy: inflow and outflow of foreign capital in January through September of USA Germany France UK The Netherlands Inflow Outflow In 2002, the major part of investment from Germany (US $ 1318 million, or 65 % of the aggregate German investment in the first 9 months of 2002) was made in trade and public catering. US investors preferred to invest in industry (34 % of the US investment). UK investors are most interested in such sectors of the Russias economy as trade and public catering (US $ 739 million, or 43.2 % of the total UK investment made in January through September of 2002), industry (US $ 494 million, or 28.9 %), and the general commercial activities ensuring the functioning of the market (US $ 410 million, or 24 %). The operations of joint Russian-French ventures is primarily oriented towards to provision of trade, mediation, consulting, financial, and other services.

A positive factor behind the investment activity in Russia is improving credit ranking of Russia by largest world rating agencies Moody`s and Standard & Poor's.

E. Ilyukhina The Real Sector: Factors and Trends The positive dynamics of GDP are supported by the growth of production in industry, construction, and agriculture. At the same time, a comparative analysis of the years dynamics of macroeconomic indicators demonstrate that the rates of growth gradually decelerate. While in 1999 through 2002 the average annual rate of increase in GDP made 7.2 %, in 2001 through 2002 it made only 4.5 %, at the same time, the respective indicator of industry made 11.4 % and 4.6 %. For the first time in the last decade, in 2000 through 2001 construction developed at rates outpacing the growth in the volumes of output in industry and GDP.

However, in 2002 there is detected a decelerating rate of investment demand. The increase in investment in the real sector of the economy made 2.5 % in January through November of 2002, as compared with 8.3 % registered in the respective period of 2001.

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