20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 USD-2003 USD-2007 USD-In the first three weeks of the month, the annualized yield of securities on the domestic debt market made 13.18 %. In December, there took place three auctions for the placement of government bonds amounting to the nominal value of RUR 20 billion, the actual placed amount made RUR 8.13 billion, the amount of demand being RUR 9.37 billion.
The Market for Corporate Securities.
The stock market. In December, the side trend continued on the Russia’s market of shares, the market was fairly quiet. From November 29 till December 24, the RTS index decreased by 8.56 points (- 2.37 %). In this period, the volume of trade made US $ 193 million. The average daily volume was US $ 12 million. In the first half of the month there was observed a decrease in the index. Since the end of November till December 16, the stock market indicator fell by 21.59 points (- 5.98 %). The dynamics of the index in the middle of the month were determined by the “long” weekend. By the end of the month the stock market indicator increased and made 352.29 points on December 24. In the last 4 days of the month there was observed a very low daily trade volume – less than US $ 10 million. The minimal trade volume was registered on December 20, what made US $ 4.9 million, while the maximum made US $ 19.8 million (December 3). From our point of view, in December there were observed interesting specifics: a sharp increase in the world oil prices did not adequately affect the prices of domestic oil giants. These market dynamics may result in a rapid growth in the beginning of the next year.
Объем торгов ($) Индекс РТС мл н. до лл пу ар нк ов то С в Ш 28 26 1 30 29 31 1 1 27 30 23 20 18 ноя дек янв апр ма ию ию окт ноя дек ноя ма апр авг сен р й н л 01 01 02 02 02 02 01 02 02 02 02 Since December 1 till December 24, the maximal growth was registered for shares of Sibneft (+ 3.98 %) followed by shares of Tatneft (2.91 %), and RAO UES. A lesser growth was demonstrated by the shares of Yukos (1.96 %) and MMC Norilsk Nikel (1.16 %). Shares of Rostelecom and Sberbank fell in price by 2.% and 4.06 % respectively. At the same time, the prices of certain shares decreased even more:
Surgutneftegas (- 6.64 %), Mosenergo (- 6.76 %), Lukoil (- 8.09 %), and Gazprom (- 9.59 %). The delay of the discussion of the key laws related to the reform of the Russia’s power engineering was a factor behind a more pronounced growth in quotations of RAO UES securities. The sharp drop in the prices of the shares in the gas concern occurred due to its low financial results in the first 6 months of 2002 and alarming rumors concerning the ability of the company to service its tremendous debt. The growth in quotations of Sibneft early in the month was brought about by the purchase of a block of shares in Slavneft owned by the Belorussian government and the expectations that the company would win the auction for the sale of the Russia-owned share in Slavneft.
Figure 4. The dynamics of Russian blue chip quotations from 29 November till 24 December of 2002.
Динамика котировок российских голубых фишек с 29 ноября 2002 г. по 24 декабря 2002 г.
5% 0% -5% -10% ЮКОС Татнефть РАО ЕЭС Мосэнерго ЛУКойл НК СИБНЕФТЬ ГМК НорНикель РостелекомСбербанк РФ Сургутнефтегаз РАО Газпром (ФБ СПб) Изменение цены (%) Ordinary shares of RAO UES traditionally accounted for the greatest proportion in the total volume of RTS turnover from December 01 till 24 – 27.47 % (29.64 % respectively in the last month). Ordinary shares of Lukoil were at the second place – 18.29 % (17.97 %). The turnover of Yukos shares increased up to 14.% (10.51 %), while the share of Surgutneftegas in the RTS turnover made 13.27 % (13.12 %). The share of Sibneft increased more than 1.5 times up to 7.02 % (4.14 %). This month, the aggregate share of five most liquid stocks in the total RTS turnover decreased somewhat making 80.6 % (77.55 % in November).
In the period from December 1 to 24 of 2002, the volume of trade with Gazprom shares through RTS terminals made US $ 46.5 million (about 60.5 mil. of shares), the total number of transactions with the securities of the concern was 7.4 thousand.
In the end of the year, the list of the top five Russian companies by capitalization was as follows: Yukos, US $ 20.6 billion; Gazprom, US $ 17.2 billion; Lukoil, US $ 13 billion; Surgutneftegas, US $ 11.1 billion;
Sibneft, US $ 9.9 billion (according to RTS data).
The Market for Term Contracts. On December 15, 2002, there were executed December futures contracts in amount of RUR 209 million. The futures contract for the price of RAO UES shares (EESI-12.02) accounted for the maximal number of contracts for execution (20896 contracts amounting to RUR million) On the whole, the volume of trade on the market for term contracts made RUR 8.25 billion (42.3 thousand transactions, 1.86 million contracts), of which futures contracts accounted for RUR 8.06 billion (40.thousand transactions, 1.81 thousand contracts). The maximal daily turnover was registered on December and made RUR 784.7 million. On the average, the daily turnover was RUR 515 million, the number of transactions made 2646.
External factors behind the dynamics of the Russia’s stock market. An upward trend was observed on the oil market: from November 29 till December 24 the rise in prices made more than 20 % (US $ 5.21/barrel). The major factors determining the dynamics of quotations on world markets were the news from Venezuela, where oil exports were practically paralyzed, and growing tensions in the relations between USA and Iraq. On December 12, OPEC took the decision to increase export oil quotas from January 1, 2003, by 1.3 million barrels a day up to 23 million barrels a day. These measures were aimed at the restoration of confidence in the quota system and maintaining the prices of the “black gold” at the level acceptable for the cartel member countries (US $ 22 to 28 per barrel). On December 16, there was registered a significant growth in the prices of oil and oil products (+ 4 %), what reflected the reaction of the world market to the growing tension in Venezuela. Prices reached the maximal level registered since the beginning of October (US $ 28.6 per barrel). Venezuela is a major supplier of crude oil to the USA, where a decrease in industrial reserves of oil made about 7 % in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year.
In the absence of positive news, the quotations of oil exceeded the level of US $ 30 per barrel by the end of the month and on December 24 made US $ 30.93 per barrel.
Figure 5. Price for Brent crude oil, USA (NYMEX) Цена на сырую нефть Brent, США (NYMEX) д о л л а р о в з а б 02.11.01 04.12.01 11.01.02 15.02.02 22.03.02 23.04.02 05.06.02 08.07.02 06.08.02 11.09.02 14.10.02 15.11.02 19.12.In December, international ranking agencies upgraded sovereign rankings of the Russian Federation. On December 5, Standard & Poors announced the increase in long term sovereign rankings of Russia from BB- to BB+ as concerns liabilities denominated in domestic currency and from BB- to BB as concerns forex denominated liabilities according to the international scale. Therefore, assessments of the Russia’s economy are getting closer to the investment evaluations, which, according to the S&P scale, start from BBB category.
As concerns the national scale, the ranking of Russia was confirmed at the ruAA+ level. The agency’s analysts point out that the reasonable tax policies and improved system of the debt management excludes the return to a significant budget deficit even in the case oil prices decrease. The new management of the Bank of Russia facilitated a progress of the banking reform. However, in 2003, S&P does not plan a further increase in Russia’s standing because of the Parliamentary elections in the end of the next year and related deceleration of structural economic reform. On December 17, Moody's Investors Service also increased the ranking of Russian liabilities denominated in foreign currency from Ba3 to Ba2.
The European Central Bank has decreased the discount rate by 0.5 % down to 2.75 % for the first time since November of 2001. The US FRS left the key interest rate at the minimal level in 41 years (1.25 %). In its statement, FOMC noted that the risk of a further increase in inflation rates and the risk of a further weakening of the economy have equal weights. The Bank of England also took the decision not to change the interest rate at the level of 4 %.
240% Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq Composite 220% Ин д е к с РТС 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 01.11.01 31.01.0201.03.02 14.08.30.11.0102.01.02 29.03.02 22.05.02 11.09.0209.10.0206.11.0203.12.26.04.2002 19.06.17.07.Corporate News.
OAO OC Yukos.
According to the company’s press service, the Board of Directors of the oil company recommended the extraordinary shareholder meeting to take the decision about the payment of intermediate dividends for months of this year in amount of RUR 12.75 billion (about US $ 400 million), what makes RUR 5.70 per an ordinary share. It shall be noted that in spite of a decrease in the company’s net profits registered in the first six months of the year in comparison with the figures observed in the respective period of the preceding year, the recommended annualized amount of dividends per share was increased.
The ranking agency Standard & Poors upgraded the ranking of OC Yukos in national and foreign currency up to BB level according to the international scale and ruAA+ according to the national scale. The S&P comments note that the ranking of Yukos reflects the low level of debt and its significant amount of liquid assets. The company demonstrates a high level of profitability and cash flows, as well as high effectiveness of investment. Among negative factors the agency’s analysts note instability of world oil prices, general risks of Russia’s oil industry, ambitious investment policy, and concentrated structure of the joint stock capital.
The government of Iraq revoked the contract for the development of a large oil deposit West Kurna it had concluded earlier with Lukoil. The West Kurna deposit with estimated oil reserves at 7.3 billion barrels is the largest deposit offered for development by a foreign oil company. The formal pretext of the repudiation of the contract was the failure to meet its obligations on the part of the Russian company, what, allegedly, damaged the Iraqi economic interests.
S&P upgraded the long term credit rankings of the oil company from B+ to BB-. The increase in ranking is related to the leading position of Lukoil as concerns the reserves, extraction, and exports among other Russian oil companies. The constraining factors include high level of average costs and a significant amount of debt.
A key event of December was the auction for the sale of the block of shares in OGC Slavneft owned by the Russian government. Before the auction, the representatives of the RF Accounting Chamber evaluated the price of the 74.95 % shares in Slavneft at US $ 3 to 3.2 billion. However, the oil company was sold to TNK and Sibneft for a much lower amount of US $ 1.86 billion. According to A. Kudrin, the RF Finance Minister, privatization of state owned blocks of shares in Lukoil and Slavneft allowed to form the necessary amount of financial reserves.
However, the purchase worsened the financial standing of both companies, what was reflected by a decrease in their rankings by leading agencies. For instance, S&P reviewed the forecast of the change in the standing of Sibneft from “developing” to “negative” and excluded TNK from the CreditWatch list (the company was included on December 6, 2002 with a positive forecast). The ranking of Sibneft according to the national scale was decreased from ruAA to ruA+.
A largest operator of cellular phone networks, OAO MTS published the US GAAP financial report for the first 9 months of 2002. MTS net profits increased by more than 30 % in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year and made US $ 191.9 million. In the same period, the proceeds of the company increased 1.5 times and made US $ 634.8 million, while profits before taxes made US $ 491.4 million, what is 1.6 times over the indicators of 2001, EBITDA made 52 %.
Dynamics of Foreign Stock Indexes As of December 23, 2002 Value Change during Change since the the month (%) beginning of the year (%) RTS (Russia) 354.22 -1.92% 36.21% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 8493.29 -4.53% -16.21% NASDAQ Composite (USA) 1381.-6.57% -30.47% S&P 500 (USA) 897.-4.16% -22.71% FTSE 100 (UK) 3936.-5.58% -24.90% DAX-30 (Germany) 3000.-9.62% -41.85% CAC-40 (France) 3087.-7.19% -33.23% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 4731.-7.55% -26.28% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 8406.-8.78% -20.26% Bovespa (Brazil) 9.14% -15.53% IPC (Mexico) 6153.-0.06% -4.85% IPSA (Chile) 85.4.89% -21.96% Strait Times (Singapore) 1335.-4.06% -17.89% Seoul Composite (Korea) 691.-4.61% -0.33% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 10702.-19.53% -22.35% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index 299.-1.03% -5.72% Foreign Exchange Market.
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