A key specific feature of the development of the Russian economy over the last three years has been the outpacing rate of growth in domestic demand in comparison with external demand. In 2002, according to estimates the share of domestic demand in GDP increased to 90.0 % as compared with 87.2 % in 2001 and 79.9 % in 2000. The expansion of demand on the domestic market occurred at the background of decelerating rates of industrial development and initiated outpacing rates of growth in import of goods of final demand in comparison with dynamics of domestic production. While the deceleration of the rates of growth in volumes of export in 2001 through 2002 may be explained by fluctuations in the business situation on world raw materials markets, the intensive growth in imports observed over the last 2 years is exclusively related to internal problems. Besides, the real Ruble appreciation was a factor behind the growth in imports.
Therefore, the outpacing rates of growth in imports in comparison with exports resulted in a decrease in the share of net exports in GDP by 2.1 p.p in 2002 as compared with the figures registered in 2001 and by 9.p.p in comparison with the respective indicator in 2000.
Table GDP dynamics as broken down by components of utilization in 1997 through 2002, in % of the preceding year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Gross domestic product 100,9 95,1 105,4 1090 105,0 104,Including:
Expenditures for final consumption 103,0 98,5 97,6 107,4 107,2 106,Of households 105,4 97,6 95,6 109,3 109,9 108,Of state agencies 97,6 100,6 103,0 101,4 99,2 102, On not-for-profit organizations 98,2 98,4 100,4 100,2 101,9 104, Gross accumulation 96,4 71,3 108,5 131,9 119,3 101, Net exports 91,2 211,0 172,3 93,8 85,0 95,Source: RF Goskomstat In 2002, the situation where rates of growth in GDP outpaced the dynamics of gross accumulation and investment in fixed assets was restored. While in 2001 gross accumulation of fixed capital increased by 10.%, in 2002 this indicator made only 2.9 %. As a result, the share of gross accumulation in fixed capital in GDP in 2002 made 17.9 % and decreased by 0.9 p.p in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year, at the same time, the share of investment in fixed assets declined by 2.4 p.p. and made 15.%. It shall be noted that the decline in investment demand was not related to price factors. Index deflator of final consumption in 2002 made 117.4 %, gross accumulation of fixed capital - 112.3 % as compared with 122.2 % and 122.9 % respectively in 2001. Therefore, growth in final demand occurred at the background of increase in prices of consumer goods and services relatively to investment goods. Investment in fixed assets ceased to have the dominating impact on the rates of economic growth. The redistribution of resources from accumulation to final consumption reflects a decline in the future returns from investment for economic agents in comparison with current consumption. In spite of persisting positive dynamics relating to the growth in investment, they were apparently not sufficient given the current technological, reproduction, and age structure of fixed assets. Besides, because of the persisting significant scope of gross accumulation the problem of its transformation in investment became more urgent. In the situation of economic growth it became evident that investment management is not coordinated with the dynamic processes of restructuring of the Russia’s economy. Taking into account the persistence of traditionally high concentration of profits in the export oriented industries sector and the lack of mechanisms of inter-sectoral flow of capitals and accumulation of gross savings for the development of competitive components of the economy it may be hardly expected that radical changes would occur in the nature of the reproduction of fixed capital.
The specifics of GDP formation in 2002 were determined by the outpacing rates of growth in final consumption as compared with the dynamics of gross accumulation and investment in fixed assets. The increase in the real amount of final consumption was by 6.9 % more than in 2001. There persist the dominating influence of the intensive expansion of final household consumption. The household expenditures for final consumption increased by 8.5 % in comparison with the figures registered in 2001. It shall be noted that in spite of the stable growth in expenditures for final consumption occurring over the last three years their share in the GDP structure made 68.3 % and was by more than 8 points below the pre-crisis level.
The changes in the dynamics and structure of GDP revenue formation in 2001 through 2002 occurred under the impact of redistribution of primary revenues in favor of wages and salaries. Although in 2001 and 2002 the share of wages and salaries in GDP increased by 2.5 and 3.7 p.p. respectively, it did not reach the pre-crisis values.
Table Structure of GDP formation as broken down by revenue sources in 1997 thgough 2002, in % of the total 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Gross domestic product 100 100 100 100 100 Including:
Pay to employees (including hidden pay) 50,0 47,2 40,6 40,2 42,7 46,Net taxes on production and import 14,5 15,1 16,1 17,1 15,5 13,Gross profit of the economy and gross mixed revenues 35,5 37,7 43,3 42,7 41,8 40,Source: Goskomstat The growing gap between wages and salaries and labor productivity initiated an increase in production costs and decline in profitability. Decreasing profit rates was also due to a growth in material costs resulting from rise in wholesale price of and tariffs on products and services of natural monopolies, while producers’ prices of final goods changed more evenly. Yet another factor was the relative worsening of the business situation relating to a number of staple Russian exports. As a result, the share of gross profits and gross mixed revenues in GDP declined by almost 2 p.p. in comparison with the figures registered in 2001.
No doubt, changes in tax legislation had a positive impact on economic growth in 2002. However, in the course of implementation of large scale institutional reforms it would be hard to expect fast results relating to improving effectiveness of the resource utilization. For instance, it is demonstrated by the growing gap between dynamics of wages and salaries and labor productivity. In 2002, there occurred practically no growth in labor productivity. While in 2000 through 2001 this gap might be explained by wages and salaries emerging out of shadow, in 2002 these developments primarily related to the deficit of qualified labor force at enterprises. The influence of this factor is expected to increase in the nearest future, and it is evident that labor productivity problems will become of decisive importance.
O. Izryadnova IET Business Survey: Industry The stop of the decline in cash sales registered in February has an immediate positive effect on enterprises.
The share of cash payments has increased up to 84 %, there was registered an increase in output, the excess of finished stocks has diminished. However, profits continue to decline, as well as purchase of machinery and equipment. At the same time, estimates of changes in sales and production demonstrate considerable optimism and, what is especially important, are closely interrelated.
The decline in effective demand registered over the last three months ceased in February. Therefore, the moderate optimism of January estimates of Russia’s enterprises was confirmed. An increase in cash sales was registered across all industries except of light and food industries, power engineering, and construction industry. It is apparent that the decline in two latter industries is of seasonal nature. This fact gives certain hope that the difficult situation observed in the first six months of the preceding year will not recur. It shall be reminded that at that time surveys registered an absolute decrease in effective demand till June. The most intensive growth in sales is observed in chemistry, petro-chemistry, and metallurgy.
ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ПЛАТЕЖЕСПОСОБНОГО СПРОСА И ПРИБЫЛИ % СПРОС: ОЖИДАЕМЫЕ -СПРОС: ФАКТИЧЕСКИЕ --ПРИБЫЛЬ: ФАКТИЧЕСКИЕ --7/98 1/99 7/99 1/00 7/00 1/01 7/01 1/02 7/02 1/CHANGES IN EFFECTIVE DEMAND AND PROFITS DEMAND: EXPECTED DEMAND: REPORTED PROFITS: REPORTED The dynamics of non-cash types of demand also changed in February. The intensity of change in barter operations (in terms of the balance) decreased from –11 % (the average value in the last six months) to –6 %.
The survey even registered an absolute growth in amounts of such transactions in chemistry, petrochemistry, and construction industry. The rates of decline in promissory notes and offset operations in the industry at large also decreased to the minimum (-1 %). A growth in the respective indicators was registered only in metallurgy and construction industry.
The negative trends of changes in cash sales registered in the end of 2002 did not make enterprises to shift to non-cash payments. In the 4th quarter, the share of cash transactions related to sales of products made %, what was the maximum in the preceding year and over the whole period of monitoring. Power engineering has kept its leading position (95 %) and has been followed by ferrous metallurgy and food industry (89 %). The minimal amount of cash sales was registered in construction industry (72 %).
The enterprises gradually start to restore volumes of output as the decline in sales ceases and the share of cash payments grows. In February, the growth rate of production became positive again (+ 6 % in therms of the balance) and reached the level registered in November and December of 2002. Production still declined only in power engineering (-21 %) and metallurgy (-17 %). The most intensive growth was registered in the forestry complex (+ 33 %), chemistry and petro-chemistry (+ 24 %).
Evaluations of finished stocks also indicate that the standing of industry improves. In February, the excess in finished stocks decreased by 6 points to the average level registered in the last six months of 2002. At the moment, the most considerable excess in finished stocks is observed in chemistry and petro-chemistry (+ %), construction industry (+ 20 %), and mechanical engineering (+ 17 %).
However, enterprises have failed to overcome the negative trends yet: real profits continue to decline. In February, the rate of decline in profits decelerated, however, it remains rather high. Profits continued to grow only in power engineering.
Investment pattern in 2000 through 2002 (in per cent of the total amount) 2000 2001 Renewal of capacities 40 43 Creation of new capacities 11 13 Purchase of capacities from third parties 1 1 Non-productive investments 3 2 Investment in working assets 14 14 Source: IET investment survey (12/02 - 02/03) Purchases of machinery and equipment continue to decline. The balance of changes remains negative and equal for both domestic and imported equipment for the second quarter running. At the same time, 30 % of enterprises do not purchase domestic equipment, while about 40 % of enterprises do not purchase imported equipment. A growth in purchases is registered only in power engineering (domestic equipment), non-ferrous metallurgy and construction industry (imported equipment). Special surveys demonstrate that only 12 to % of investments made by enterprises relate to creation of new production capacities. The major amount of investment in purchase of machinery and equipment is aimed at the renewal of existing assets (see the Table below).
Forecasts of changes in effective demand were at the absolute maximum. Only once (in July of 2000) there were registered more optimistic (by 3 points) estimates of growth in sales in the Russian industry. Over the last three months forecasts increased by 24 points and at the moment make + 22 %. The most optimistic estimates are registered in chemistry and petro-chemistry (+ 73 %), construction industry (+ 66 %), and mechanical engineering (+ 34 %).
At the same time, estimates of output remained in fact at the level observed in the preceding month.
Output will grow across all industries with the exception of power engineering. The most intensive increase in output is expected in chemistry and petro-chemistry (+ 73 %), construction industry (+ 70 %), and mechanical engineering (+ 50 %), i.e. the same industries which expect the most rapid growth in sales. The comparison of all estimates of output and demand at the micro-level demonstrated that the same industries primarily plan their output in accordance with the expected dynamics of sales. The correspondence of these indicators in chemistry and petro-chemistry makes 100 %, fuel industry – 91 %, construction industry – %, light and food industry and mechanical engineering – 70 %.
Forecasts of changes in prices lost 4 points of optimism; however, they remain at a most high level registered in the last 24 months. Enterprises planning an increase in prices still prevail across all industries, especially in chemistry and petro-chemistry (54 %), food industry and mechanical engineering (50 %), and construction industry (46 %).
In February, the most optimistic (since the beginning of the monitoring in February of 2002) plans of purchase of both domestic and imported equipment. Enterprises of food industry, ferrous metallurgy, and construction industry primarily plan to purchase domestic equipment, while planned purchases of imported equipment prevail in ferrous metallurgy, chemistry, petro-chemistry, and food industry.
S. Tsukhlo Crediting of the real sector in In 2002, the relative increase in crediting of the non-banking sector (NBS) by banks persisted. As in 2001, the crediting of the real sector of the economy observed in 2002 increased at rates outpacing the general growth in assets. As a result, the share of loans to the non-banking sector in banks’ assets has increased from 46.7 % in the beginning of the year up to 48.9 % in early December6; however, the rates of growth in terms of constant prices were somewhat below the level registered in 2001. In 11 months of 2002, the growth in the aggregate credit portfolio made 17.3 % (18.9 % over the year) as compared with 25.4 % registered in 2001. In 2002, similarly to 2001 figures, the dynamics of loans closely corresponded with dynamics of industrial output (see Fig. 1). The share of outstanding loans in banks’ credit portfolios slightly increased over the year (from 1.7 % in the beginning of the year up to 1.9 % in early December); however, it remained at a rather low level.
Here and below without banks under ARCO management.
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