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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES February 2003 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2003 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 02079 19 2000 .

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru The State of the Federal Budget.................................................................................................................... 3 Structure of inflation in the post-crisis period (1999 2002)....................................................................... 6 The Real Sector: Factors and Trends........................................................................................................... 17 IET Business Survey: Industry.................................................................................................................... 19 Crediting of the real sector in 2002............................................................................................................. 21 Reforming state unitary enterprises: the trends of 2002.............................................................................. 28 Russia: Introduction of Meat Import Quotas............................................................................................... 32 Regions: industrial output dynamics........................................................................................................... 35 Foreign Trade.............................................................................................................................................. 38 2 The State of the Federal Budget In 2002, the revenues of the state budget (cash execution) made 20.1 % of GDP, while expenditures made 18.7 % of GDP (see Table 1). Therefore, the federal budget surplus made 2.0 % of GDP.

Table 1 The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % of GDP1, in comparable prices) III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`02 IX`02 X`02 XI`02 XII`02 2001 I`02 II`Revenues Corporate profit tax 2,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 1,9% 1,7% 1,7% 1,7% 1,6% 1,7% 1,6% 1,6% Personal income tax 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 0,0% 4,9% 4,4% 4,0% 3,9% 3,6% 3,5% 3,5% 3,3% 3,2% 3,1% 3,1% 3,1% Tax on foreign trade and foreign 9,4% 9,3% 9,1% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,1% 9,0% 8,9% 8,9% 8,9% trade operations Other taxes, duties and payments 7,1% 6,9% 6,4% 6,8% 6,9% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% 6,9% 6,9% 6,9% 6,9% Total- taxes and charges 2,2% 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,3% 2,2% 2,1% 2,0% 2,0% 1,9% 2,0% Non- tax revenues 3,7% 3,2% 3,3% 3,2% 3,0% 2,9% 2,9% 2,9% 2,8% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% 3,0% Revenues, total 0,6% 9,7% 9,1% 8,7% 8,7% 8,4% 1,8% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,1% 2,1% 2,1% Expenditure 16,2% 20,4% 19,6% 19,6% 19,9% 19,6% 19,3% 19,4% 18,9% 18,5% 18,6% 18,5% 18,6% Public administration 1,4% 2,1% 1,6% 1,4% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% National defense 17,6% 22,4% 21,2% 20,9% 21,2% 20,9% 20,6% 20,9% 20,4% 20,0% 20,2% 20,1% 20,1% 21,4% International activities Judicial power 0,5% 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,5% Law enforcement and security 2,7% 1,0% 1,5% 1,9% 2,3% 2,4% 2,5% 2,5% 2,5% 2,4% 2,4% 2,5% 2,7% activities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for the 0,1% 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% national economy Social services 1,6% 0,6% 0,9% 1,0% 1,2% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,7% Servicing of public debt 0,3% 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% Other expenditure 1,3% 0,1% 0,3% 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% 0,8% 0,8% 0,8% 1,2% 1,3% 1,5% Expenditure, total 2,3% 3,7% 4,8% 4,8% 5,3% 5,2% 5,2% 5,2% 5,1% 4,9% 5,5% 5,6% 5,6% Loans, redemption exclusive 2,6% 2,0% 3,4% 3,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,4% 2,4% 2,2% 2,0% 2,0% 1,7% Expenditure and loans, 3,0% 2,9% 3,3% 3,6% 3,9% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,9% 3,8% 3,9% 3,9% 3,8% redemption exclusive Budget deficit (-) 14,7% 10,9% 15,0% 16,1% 16,9% 17,1% 17,2% 17,2% 17,1% 16,9% 17,8% 18,0% 18,7% 12,6% Domestic financing 2,9% 11,5% 6,2% 4,8% 4,3% 3,8% 3,4% 3,7% 3,3% 3,1% 2,4% 2,1% 1,4% 8,7% Other taxes, duties and payments -0,1% -11,2% -4,6% -2,7% -2,0% -1,8% -1,6% -1,8% -1,3% -1,2% -0,5% -0,2% 0,6% -6,7% Total- taxes and charges -2,8% -0,4% -1,6% -2,1% -2,3% -1,9% -1,8% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% -2,0% -2,0% Non- tax revenues -2,9% -11,5% -6,2% -4,8% -4,3% -3,8% -3,4% -3,7% -3,3% -3,1% -2,4% -2,1% -1,4% -8,7% * % ; ** For more detailed information on the key trends relating to the parameters of the budget execution and major factors affecting the budgetary situation in 2002 see the IET annual report. However, it shall be noted the following.

As compared with the figures registered in 2001, the budget revenues increased by 3.5 p.p., while expenditures grew by 4.0 p.p. and budget surplus decreased by 1.5 p.p.

In 2002, VAT accounted for the major share of federal tax revenues 37 % of the total tax revenues, or % of tax revenues without SST, what is at the level observed in 2001.

According to preliminary estimates, the cash execution of federal budget revenues made 21.4 % of GDP in January of 2003, what is below the respective level observed in January of 2002. At the same time the cash execution of expenditures made 12.9 % of GDP (10.9 % of GDP in 2002); therefore, the surplus made 8.7 % of GDP (11.5 % of GDP in 2002).

According to the preliminary estimates of the Finance Ministry, in terms of fulfilled funding2 the expenditures of the federal budget in January of 2003 made 16.9 % of GDP (see Table 2), while in January 1 Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may be subject to revision.

The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

of 2002 this indicator was at 15.5 % of GDP. As a result, the surplus of the federal budget in terms of fulfilled funding in January of 2003 has also decreased in comparison with the figures registered in January of 2002 and made 4.5 % of GDP.

Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, fulfilled funding).

I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`02 IX`02 XII`02 I`Total 22,2% 21,0% 20,9% 21,2% 20,8% 20,5% 20,5% 20,5% 20,0% 20,1% 21,4% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% National defense 1,7% 2,4% 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,5% International activities 0,4% 0,2% 0,4% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% -0,4% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Law enforcement and 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,5% 1,6% 1,9% 1,6% 1,6% 1,7% 1,9% security activities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for 0,3% 0,6% 0,8% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,1% 1,0% 1,5% 0,6% the national economy Social services 5,0% 5,7% 5,3% 5,9% 5,7% 5,5% 5,6% 5,4% 5,2% 5,7% 2,6% Servicing of public 1,9% 3,4% 3,4% 2,7% 2,5% 2,4% 2,6% 2,4% 2,4% 2,0% 1,7% debt Other expenditure 3,5% 4,0% 3,9% 4,0% 4,6% 4,2% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,8% 7,0% Total expenditure 15,5% 18,7% 18,6% 19,1% 19,4% 18,9% 19,1% 18,6% 18,2% 18,7% 16,9% (+) / 6,8% 2,3% 2,3% 2,1% 1,4% 1,6% 1,4% 1,8% 1,7% 1,4% 4,5% (-) According to the estimates of the Revenue Ministry, in January of 2003 tax revenues of the federal budget made Rb. 97.3 billion (without the single social tax). In real terms the revenues made 230.0 % of the level registered in January of 1999, while the respective indicator was at 218.7 % in 2002 and 204.4 % in (see Table 3).

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999)3.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 239,6% 218,0% 284,4% 246,5% 254,8% 299,7% 241,0% 250,2% I 230,0% It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable. January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

200% 180% Profit tax VAT 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Fig. 1. Rate of growth of the real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to July 1999) The debts related to the payments due to the federal budget made for VAT Rb. 245.6 billion as on February 1, 2003, the arrears of the profit tax made Rb. 33.0 billion. The dynamics of real arrears relating to major debts since June of 1999 is presented in Fig. 1. On the whole, the data demonstrate a gradual decrease in the level of accumulated arrears as concerns the profit tax and stabilization of VAT arrears.

The revenues of the consolidated budget in 2002 made 32.1 % of GDP, including tax revenues (without SST) at 25.5 % of GDP (see Table 4). Expenditures of the consolidated budget increased by 5.5 p.p. in comparison with the figures registered in 2001 and made 31.1 % of GDP. The surplus of the consolidated budget in 2002 was 1.0 % of GDP, what is the record low in the last two years.

Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expendit 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% ures Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expendit 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% ures Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expendit 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% ures Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November I II III IV V VI VII VIII I XI XII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Expendit 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% ures Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% 25,2% 25,4% 25,4% 25,5% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% 31,7% 32,0% 32,1% 32,1% Expendit 18,3% ures 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% 28,4% 29,3% 29,7% 31,1% Deficit 14,6% 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% 3,3% 2,7% 2,4% 1,0% * S. Batkibekov Monetary Policy In January 2003 the Consumer Price Index amounted to 2.4 percent, that is its maximal value for the last twelve months (see Figure 1). The commodity structure of consumer price growth testifies to the assumption on seasonal reasons for price increase acceleration. E.g., prices for foodstuffs increased by 2.5 percent in January. However, without taking into consideration the fruit and vegetables group, the foodstuff price increase did not exceed 1.3 percent. Prices for paid public services have also substantial growth of 4.percent, including housing and communal services: 7.2 percent. The latter may be also referred to the seasonal factors, as traditionally the increase in administered prices takes place at the beginning of the year.

According to our estimates, in February 2003, like in 2002, the inflation growth fell down to 1.2 -1.percent.

2002-2003 . (% ) 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% FIGURE 1. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX GROWTH RATES IN 2002 - (PERCENT PER MONTH) In January 2003 the volume of narrow monetary base reduced by 6.5 percent, from RUR 940 up to billion, which is the most intense contraction of the money offer since 1998. However, in the first half of February, 2003, the narrow monetary base grew again, approximately by 2.5 percent, owing, first of all, to accumulation of gold and currency reserves of the RF Central Bank (see Figure 2). Despite the substantial RF external debt payments (more than US$ 3 billion in the course of two months) and the weakening exchange market support (see Section "Exchange Market"), the Bank of Russia has been increasing its gold and currency reserves at more than one billion US$ per week during the second half of January and in February, 2003. Hence, the total reserves reached US$ 52.7 billion by February 23, 2003, exceeding the total as of January 01, 2003, nearly by US$ 5 billion (+10.3 percent).

As for the decisions in the monetary policy in February 2003, it is necessary to emphasize the decrease in the CB RF refinance rate down to 18 percent, which is a historic minimum for this index. However, it should be mentioned that the changes of refinance rate do not determine the dynamics of government bond yields and credit rates, but continue to follow them.

2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 3 .

9 5 0 5 9 4 5 9 3 5 9 2 9 1 5 9 0 4 8 9 4 8 8 8 7 4 8 6 4 8 5 4 8 4 8 3 4 8 2 4 8 1 8 0 0 4 ( . . ) ( . $ ) FIGURE 2.

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