socio-economic stability, and it is back-upped by a The rise of the national economy took place relatively favorable state of affairs in the external against the backdrop of a positive dynamics of outmarkets for Russian exports. put of goods and services. In contrast to 2000, According to Goskomstat, between January showed acceleration of growth rates and rise in the trough September 2001 the volume of GDP ac- contribution of the sector for services to the dynamcounted for Rb. 6,545.0 bln. and grew by 4.9% ics of GDP. With the growth in output of goods at compared with the respective period of the prior 4.3% over the year, market services rose by 6.8%.
year. The analysis of dynamics of GDP shows that Between January through November 2001 the inthe intense growth in output in the 2nd and 3rd crement in goods turnover in the retail trade sector quarters of 2001 both has compensated for the accounted for 10.6%, while the one in the volume slump noted in the beginning of the year and en- of paid services provided to the population - 1.8%.
sured the economy entering a stable growth path. In So, in 2001 the index of retail trade goods turnover the 3rd quarter, the volume of GDP accounted for should make up 107.4% relative to the pre-crisis Rb. 2,542.5 bln. and grew by 11.5% compared with level of 1997.
Contribution of single sectors to increment in GDP by quarters over 1999- 2001, as % o result 100,90,80,70,60,50,40,30,20,10,0,I/99 II III IV I/00 II III IV I/01 II III Industrial sector Construction Agriculture Transport and communication Trade Other sectors Economic rise as a backdrop allows noting a fects of the 1997-1998 crisis, specifically, in the soclear asymmetry of production growth, popula- cial sphere.
tion’s incomes and final demand, which does not The intense rise in households’ spending over allow an unambiguous evaluation of the economic 2000-01 compared with dynamics of final consituation. Given indisputably successful economic sumption appeared a strong factor of economic reperformance in 2001, the comparison of main indi- newal. Between January through November cators of living standards shows that so far the the increment in real incomes accounted for 6.5% economy has not managed to fully overcome ef- compared with the respective period of the prior year, while the one in real salaries and wages made up 0.1%, and the increment in real amount of pen- active social policy in 2001, the rise in salaries and sions due- 22.6%. wages was 1.5 times ahead of growth in profits.
It was the dynamic expansion of retail trade The potential for growth accumulated thanks to acturnover and growth in output of domestic con- tive investment operations and rising receipts of the sumer goods that appeared the most evident indica- national businesses allows resolving social probtor of positive changes in the population’s living lems. The number of Russians with monetary instandards. The increment in households’ spending come were under subsistence minimum fell by 15% on final consumption over the period between vs. the 3rd quarter 2000. Considering the envisaged January through September roughly accounts for rise in the population’s incomes in the 4th quarter, 8.7%. With the population’s incomes growing, the including increase of salaries and wages of purchases of non-food goods were growing at an “budget” employees, in 2001 the poverty level advanced rate. During he period in question the should slid to 27% of the total population vs. 30.2% turnover of retail trade with food stuffs grew by reported in 2000. However, despite the aforemen7.2% vs. its respective period of the prior year, tioned measures, the main parameters characterizwhile the one of retail trade with non-food goods ing living standards would still be substantially ingrew by 13.2%. ferior to those of 1997. According to some estiThe structure of GDP shows a clear trend to mates, in 2001 the population’s real income should growth in labor compensation. With pursuance of n make up roughly 84.0% of the level of 1997.
The structure of formation of GDP by revenue sources, as % to result 2000 год 2001 год кварталы кварталы I II III I II III Валовой внутренний продукт 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,в том числе:
Оплата труда наемных работников, включая скрытую 39,2 40,8 37,6 42,0 44,0 46,Чистые налоги на производство и импорт 16,2 18,8 16,0 15,4 19,1 17,Валовая прибыль экономики и валовые смешанные доходы 44,6 40,4 46,4 42,6 36,9 36,Source: Goskomstat of RF, the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade.
The rise in revenues generated through foreign foreign exchange inflow on enterprises’ current actrade and thanks to growth in profitability rates of counts somewhat dropped and accounts for 17.1% sectors and single industries focused on the domes- vs. 21.8% noted in 2000. Given that between Janutic market has determined change in the share of ary through September 2000 the share of the fuel gross profit in GDP. When compared with 2000, sector and metallurgy in the overall mount of forgross profit manifested the trend to decline. The eign exchange- denominated receipts to enterprises core essence of structural shits in the economy’s current accounts was 32.7%, in 2001 the respective gross profit was its re-allocation in favor of fuel and index made up over 40.5%. The maintenance of a energy sub-sectors and industries dealing with min- high profitability rate of export-oriented sector aperal production. With the current correlation be- peared the factor determining the trend to growth in tween international and domestic prices, a consid- gross national savings. The advanced growth in erable part of revenues generated by the rise in the gross savings and investment in capital assets relaRb.-equivalent value of products sold for foreign tive to dynamics of GDP has had a dominating imexchange also is transformed in profit. In 2001, due pact on the economy’s development until the very to changes in the world prices, the proportional end of 2001.
O. Izryadnova weight of the fuel sector in the overall volume of Recapitalization of Russian banks in Russian banking system are still challenged by The balance sheet capital of banks operating as recapitalization. As far as the national banks’ capi- of late September 2001 accounted for Rb. 407.tal is concerned, some pre-crisis indicators have not bln. in current prices and showed a 35.4% growth been reached as yet, however, in 2001 new positive over the three quarters 2001. Interestingly, the trends in recapitalization process emerged. growth rate of balance sheet capital appeared supe rior to the growth rate of banks’ assets (28.4), while testify to an actual rise in capitalization of the bankin 2000 the correlation was reverse (with growth in ing system. The dynamics of aggregate assets and assets accounting for 50.7%, while balance sheet balance sheet capital in current prices is given in capital growing by 44.5%). Such a correlation may Fig.1.
Fig.1 Dynamics of aggregate assets and balance sheet capital of operating Russian banks (as Rb. bln., in current prices).
Rb.bln Assets Balance sheet capital дек.98 дек.99 дек.00 сен.Calculated according to STIiK firm Considering dynamics aspect of maintenance of from stockholders and participants in capital of a capital sufficiency, one can also note positive trends credit institution.
in this area. As of the end of the 3rd quarter 2001, So, as of late September 2001, the share of agthe correlation between the operating banks’ bal- gregate authorized capital in the structure of balance sheet capital and their assets accounted for ance sheet capital of operating Russian banks ac14.8% vs. 14.1% noted as of the end 2000, however counted for 61.6%, thus having fallen slightly vs.
it is still far from the pre-crisis level (19.1%). As the beginning 2001 (70.6%).
concerns the capital sufficiency standard set by The top 5 banks in terms of growth in the absoCBR, the overwhelming majority of banks match lute values of their capitals over the first 3 quarters and overfulfill it due to the fact their low-risk as- 2001 became RBR, RSKHB, bank Moskvy, sets. Globex, and Petrocommerz) that showed a more As of mid-2001, the ratio of overall balance than 1 bkn. Rb. increment in their authorized capisheet capital of operating banks to GDP accounted tal each. However one should note that the governfor 4.4%, which is somewhat higher than the re- ment played a considerable role in this process: it spective index of the end-2000 (4.2%). However “helped” at least three banks (RBR, RSKHB, and this ratio, as well as capital to aggregate assets ra- Bank Moskvy) increase their authorized capital.
tio, has not yet reached the pre-crisis level (roughly The government participation in Globex is indirect- 5% as of late-1997). it participates in the bank’s capital through the main Another characteristic feature of the current de- owner of it- Rosgosstrakh (however privatization of velopment of the national banking system in 2001 the latter started in autumn), while it is Lukoil that was a significant (nearly as much as twice) excess is a major stockholder of Petrocommerz(holding of the growth rate in aggregate balance sheet capital over 60% of authorized capital),- so, in this particu(35.4%) over the growth rate of authorized capital lar case it was Lukoil’s export receipts that mostt (18.2%). For reference: in 2000, the respective in- likely formed a considerable increment in the dexes accounted, accordingly, for 44.5% and bank’s authorized capital.
49.1%. This testifies to the fact that in 2001 capi- The structure of participants in Russian banks talization of Russian banks took place to a greater authorized capital has not experienced serious extent at the expense of internal sources of financ- changes over the 3 quarters of 2001 (Fig.2) ing (e.g. profit), rather than additional contributions Fig.2 Structure of participants in authorized capitals of Russian banks operating as of October 1, 1. Federal executive and government authorities 2. Subjects of the Federation 3 3. Public enterprises 4. Non-government enterprises 5. Private individuals 6. Non-residents Calculated on the basis of the data of STIiK company It was non-residents whose participation in Rus- by federal authorities (19%) and non-residents sian banks’ authorized capital has fallen at most (4.9%). Private individuals and public enterprises since the beginning 2001- from 7.5% to 4.9%. As hold 4% each, while regional authorities hold the well, the federal executive and government authori- last position in this respect with 2.5%.
ties have decreased their share in the aggregate So, we believe that currently the key phenomecapital of Russian banks, while the shares of other non of development of the national banking system groups of participants were growing. However, is the advanced growth rate of balance sheet capital there were no qualitative changes in the structure of vs. both growth rates of the banking system’s agparticipants in authorized capital of Russian banks gregate assets and the growth rate of aggregate auover the period in question. It still is non- thorized capital.
E. Marushkina, E. Timofeev government enterprises that hold the biggest share pf aggregate authorized capital (65.7%) followed IET Business Survey: December In December, the Russian industrial sector regis- tor as a whole and proved to be lowest since August tered an intense fall in effective demand. As far as 2000. The decline rates of barter deals across the the post-default period is concerned, it was only industrial sector as a whole grew by 4 points. It is January 2001 that demonstrated such a fall. Produc- only the coal industry and non-ferrous metallurgy tion also reacted to the contraction in demand: the that reported growth in direct barter deals. So, the output growth rate in the industrial sector on the national industrial sector reports contraction in all whole slid by 21 balance point over the month. kinds of demand for its products.
December 2001 also showed intensification of The index characterizing substitution of non-cash negative trends related to dynamics of cash sales of kinds of demand with effective one slid by another industrial products. Given that in November the 12 points in December, but still retains positive shares of responses concerning rise in sales and value, i.e. still non-cash transactions are supplanted their decline appeared roughly equal, in December by regular deals. However the intensity of this the latter grew sharply and became substantially process has proved to be lowest since August 2001.
higher than the former one. As a result, the balance Despite clearly negative trends of change in effecof responses over the last two months fell by 20 tive demand, enterprises have managed to retain a points and became negative-i.e. effective demand high share of cash in their settlements for products began to shrink. Notably, the intensity of decline in sold. According to preliminary estimates, in Desales appeared roughly the same as in the beginning cember this index accounted for 76%.
of year when business activity stands still over Production has also reacted to decline in demand, Christmas time, however, this was noted yet in De- and the output growth rate across the industrial seccember, while the holidays in January have just tor as a whole fell by 21 balance point. In Decembeen over. An absolute rise in demand was reported ber, the surveys registered rise in output only in the by the non-ferrous metallurgy, forestry, wood- sectors for electricity, fuel, machine building, forworking, paper and pulp and food-processing sec- estry, wood-working and paper and pulp industries, tors. while the others reported fall in their output.
Volumes of barter, promissory-note and off-set The stock of finished products in the national indeals continued their decline in December. The de- dustrial sector has remained excessive since March cline rates of promissory-note and off-set deals 2001, and in December it grew by another 5 points.
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