the accounts receivable of the company dropped by MCTN. Rating agency “Standard & Poor's” up25.2%, and accounts payable – by 57.4%. At the graded the long-term rating of MCTN to "ССС+" same time, “Mosenergo” has no overdue debts on from "ССС-". According to the agency’s presscredits and borrowings release,.this upgrade of MCTN rating is related, MTS. Rating agency “Standard & Poor's” in- specifically, to a growth of demand for telecommucreased the long-term credit rating of “Mobile nication in Moscow, expected profits and MCTN’s TeleSystems” (MTS) up to "В+" from "В". S&P demonstrated ability to redeem and serve its debts, argues that this decision was induced bythe recent – upgrading of Russia’s rating, as well as by the Rating agency “Standard & Poor's” increased the company’s position in the Russian market for mo- long-term corporate rating of “LUKoil” up to "В+" bile communication, and growth in receipts and the from "В". Rating forecast is “stable”. S&P also upnumber of customers, backed - upped by a sound graded the main unsecured debt rating of “LUKoil” conservative financial policy. division - LukInter Finance BV to "В+" from "В".
Tatneft. In November 2001 “Tatneft” increased its oil output up to 2.026 million tons from 1.TABLE 1.DYNAMICS OF THE FOREIGN STOCK INDEXES as of December 27, 2001 value change for last change for last week (%) month (%) RTS (Russia) 254.38 12.31% 78.95% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 10088.07 2.40% -7.55% Nasdaq Composite (USA) 1976.42 2.37% -23.00% S&P 500 (USA) 1157.13 1.55% -13.22% FTSE 100 (UK) 5213.20 0.18% -15.72% DAX-30 (Germany) 5117.13 2.55% -19.75% CAC-40 (France) 4591.16 2.57% -21.06% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 6410.60 2.78% -21.02% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 10457.61 -2.24% -23.62% Bovespa (Brazil) 13756 6.37% -17.51% IPC (Mexico) 6419.19 10.05% 6.13% IPSA (Chile) 109.49 -0.40% 8.63% Straits Times (Singapore) 1612.01 9.03% -17.38% Seoul Composite(Korea) 668.55 3.83% 19.81% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 13608.99 16.98% 33.45% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index 311.751 5.88% -10.22% Foreign exchange market. respondent accounts of commercial banks with the In mid-December 2001 dollar rose sharply RCB. In addition, the attack against rouble intensiagainst rouble in the Russian foreign exchange fied as the Bank of Russia failed to stop the initial market. Between December 7 to 18 the rouble ex- fall of rouble exchange rate, despite arising deficit change rate dropped from 29.92 to 30.3 roubles/$, of liquidity within the banking system (the interi.e. by 1.27% (52% annualised). Most likely the bank credit rates soars up to 40–50% annualised).
growth of dollar exchange rate was provoked by in- However, by the end of the month the Russian Cenformation on the fall in the foreign reserves of the tral Bank managed regain its control over the marBank of Russia between late-November to early- ket, and the rouble/dollar exchange rate slid to December as well as by growth of balances on cor- 30.12–30.14 roubles/$.
So, in December 2001, the official dollar ex- morrow’ dollar exchange rate grew from 29.change rate grew from 29.93 roubles/$ to 30.14 roubles/$ to 30.1573 roubles/$ (as of December roubles/$, i.e. by 0.70% (8.75% annualised, see Fig. 24), i.e. by 0.72%. According to preliminary esti7). The ‘today’ dollar exchange rate in the SELT mates, in December the trading volumes by dollar increased from 29.9065 roubles/$ to 30.1364 rou- in the SELT rose to about 200 billion roubles.
bles/$ (as of December 24), i.e. by 0.77%. The ‘toFIGURE 7.
Dynamics of the Dollar Exchange Rates in the second half of 30,30,30,30,30,The official dollar exchange rate 30,The average-weighted 'today' dollar exchange rate 30,30,The average-weighted 'tomorrow' dollar exchange rate 30,30,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,29,FIGURE 8.
Dynamics of the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate on the International Markets 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,\ 0,0,0,0,0,0, rubles/US dollar 03.07.10.07.17.07.24.07.31.07.07.08.14.08.21.08.28.08.04.09.11.09.18.09.25.09.02.10.09.10.16.10.22.214.171.124.06.11.14.11.126.96.36.199.05.12.12.12.188.8.131.52.euro/dollar 01.01.08.01.15.01.22.01.29.01.05.02.12.02.19.02.26.02.05.03.12.03.19.03.26.03.02.04.09.04.16.04.23.04.30.04.07.05.14.05.21.05.28.05.04.06.11.06.18.06.25.06.02.07.09.07.16.07.23.07.30.07.06.08.13.08.20.08.27.08.03.09.10.09.17.09.24.09.01.10.08.10.15.10.184.108.40.206.05.11.12.11.220.127.116.11.03.12.10.12.18.104.22.168.On the eve of the launch of cash euro the ex- In December 2001 the euro/rouble exchange rate change rate of the European currency in the world also fluctuated (see Fig. 9). Namely, in mid forex market fluctuated heavily (see Fig. 8). During December the rouble/euro exchange rate fell the first half of the month the euro/$ exchange rate sharply, but, as the rouble/US$ exchange rate stabirose up to a two-month maximum (0.9044 $/euro). lised and euro dropped against dollar in the world That was explained mainly by negative develop- market, rouble appreciated vs. euro. Thus, in Dements in the US economy in October 2001. How- cember, the rouble/euro official exchange rate deever, as similar news from the European countries creased from 26.52 roubles/euro to 26.617 roucame to the market, the euro/$ exchange rate fell bles/euro, i.e. by 0.37%, over the month. According once again, and by the end of the year it declined to to preliminary estimates, in December 2001, the to0.8841 $/euro, i.e. by 2.25%. tal trading volume on euro in the SELT made up about 3 billion roubles.
Dynamics of EURO Official Excnange Rate in 27,27,26,26,25,25,24,24,TABLE 2. INDICATORS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS.
August September October November December* inflation rate (monthly) 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% annualised inflation rate by the month’s 0.0% 12.07% 14.03% 18.16% 23.87% tendency the RCB refinancing rate 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% annualised yield to maturity on OFZ issues 16.13% 15.33% 15.07% 14.91% 16% volume of trading in the secondary GKO- 7.44 8.89 9.14 12.56 OFZ market a month (billion roubles) yield to maturity on Minfin bonds by the end of the month (% a year):
4th tranche 13.05% 13.19% 10.61% 10.57% 10.2% 5th tranche 15.53% 15.86% 15.53% 14.62% 13.2% 6th tranche 14.78% 15.63% 14.76% 12.84% 11.7% 7th tranche 14.70% 15.07% 13.92% 13.24% 12.5% 8th tranche 14.21% 14.75% 14.29% 12.88% 11.9% INSTAR – MIACR rate (annual %) on interbank loans by the end of the month:
rubles/euro 04.01.20.01.06.02.21.02.08.03.24.03.10.04.25.04.15.05.30.05.15.06.30.06.17.07.01.08.16.08.31.08.15.09.02.10.17.10.01.11.17.11.04.12.20.12.August September October November December* overnight 9.33% 27.88% 24.76% 19.80% 50% 1 week 10.28% 29.03% 19.03% 16.24% 30% official exchange rate of ruble per US dollar 29.37 29.39 29.70 29.93 30.by the end of the month official exchange rate of ruble per Euro by 26.67 26.86 26.87 26.52 26.the end of the month average annualized exchange rate of ruble 0.34% 0.07% 1.05% 0.77% 0.70% per US dollar growth average annualized exchange rate of ruble 4.18% 0.71% 0.04% -1.30% 0.37% per euro growth volume of trading at the stock market in the 232.0 249.9 279.0 394.2 RTS for the month (millions of USD) the value of the RTS Index by the end of 205.41 180.25 204.04 226.49 260% the month growth in the RTS Index (% a month) 4.74% -12.25% 13.20% 11.00% 15% * Estimates S. Drobyshevsky, D. Skripkin Foreign investment in Russian economy According to results of the 9 months of 2001, as of late September 2001, foreign capital accumuforeign investment in the national economy ac- lated in the national economy roughly amounted to counted for USD 9, 721, or at 23.2% more than the USD 34.4 bln., including investment from the CIS respective index of the prior year. At the same time, countries Dynamics of attraction of foreign investment in Russian economy over 1999-140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% --20% --40% --60% --80% -3rd. q.1999 4th. q.1999 1st.q 2000 2nd. q. 2000 3rd. q.1999 4th. q.1999 1st.q 2000 2nd. q. 2000 3rd. q.Total, as % to the prior year Direct, as % to the prior year Other, as % to the prior year Total, as USD mln. Direct, as USD mln. Other, as USD mln.
As concerns the structure of foreign investment The structure of foreign investment attracted in inflow in Russian economy between January to the national economy in the 3rd quarter appear subSeptember 2001, it is portfolio investment that stantially different from the respective structure demonstrated the highest growth rate – 5 times noted over the 9 months of 2001 on the whole. This compared to the respective period of the prior year- can be attributed to a sharp fall of FDI inflow in the and amounted to USD 292 mln. The volume of 3rd quarter: it fell as much as 3.8 times compared ;other; investment accumulated over the period in with the 2nd quarter and 3.3 times- vs. the 3rd quarquestion accounts for USD 6.509 mln., or at 39.2% ter 2000. In the 3rd quarter 2001 the share of FDI in over the respective index of 2000, while the volume aggregate foreign investment accounted for 13.5% of direct investment slid by 7.4% and accounted for (for reference: in the 3rd quarter 2000- 44%, over USD 2.920 mln. the 9 months 2001- 30%).
During the period in question it was the indus- the 9 months 2001 on the whole amounted to USD trial sector where the biggest investment inflow was 3.755 vln., or at 13% more than the respective innoted- USD 1.268 mln., or 41.8% of the overall dex of the prior level (the 9 months 2000- 3.volume of foreign investment (the 3rd quarter 2000- mln., or 42.1% of the overall volume of foreign in1.05 bln., or 34%). The volume of foreign invest- vestment attracted over the period in question).
ment inflow in the national industrial sector over Sectoral structure of foreign investment in RF between January to September Industrial sector 1,2% 7,8% 38,6% Construction 6,3% Transport and communication Trade and public catering General commercial activities on provision of market functioning Finance, credit, insurance, pension 0,6% 35,1% 10,4% security Other sectors With growth in absolute indices of investment in growth, while that in general commercial activities the industrial sector between January through De- on provision of market functioning grew 3.6 times.
cember 2001, the decline in its share was deter- In 2001, the sectoral structure of foreign investmined by higher growth rates of foreign investment ment in the industrial sector is characterized by dein other sectors of the national economy. For exam- cline in investment in the food industry and growth ple, during the period concerned foreign investment in the proportional weight of the metallurgical secin trade and public catering showed a 2.1-fold tor.
Table Sectoral structure of foreign investment in the industrial sector between January through September, 1999- As % to the respective peAs USD mln. As % to result riod of the prior year 1999 2000 2001 1999 2000 2001. 2000 Industrial sector, total, 3 333 3 324 3755 100% 100% 100% -3,2% 13,0% Including:
Fuel 1 568 424 591 47% 12,7% 15,7% -73% 39,4% Metallurgy 451 747 1148 13,5% 22,5% 30,6% 65,6% 53,7% Machine-building and metal 191 360 404 5,7% 10,8% 10,8% 88,5% 12,2% processing Food 830 1 259 1038 24,9% 37,9% 27,6% 51,7% -17,6% Wood-working and paper and 129 183 176 3,9% 5,5% 4,7% 41,9% -3,8% pulp Прочие отрасли 164 351 398 4,9% 10,6% 10,6% 114% 13,4% Source: Goskomstat of RF The structure of foreign investment in the indus- FDI in the industrial sector in their overall volume trial sector over the period between January through in the noted sector accounted for 39.4%, portfolio- September 2001 matches the structure of their ag- 1.5% and ‘other’- 59%, between January through gregate volume, and it is characterized with a fall in September 2001 the share of FDI slid to 31.8%, FDI vs. the rise in other investment volumes. Thus, while the shares of the other two kinds of investgiven that over the 9 months of 2000 the share of ment rose uo to 3.4% and 64.8%.
During the period in question Russia received clear leader (12.6% of the overall volume of foreign investment from 107 nations worldwide (in 2000- investment in Russian economy in 2001) followed 108, in 1999-96 nations). It is the US that was a by Switzerland- 9.8% Structure of foreign investment in the industrial sector between 1999 through 3 кв.2 кв.1 кв.4 кв.3 кв.2 кв.1 кв.4 кв.3 кв.0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% FDI Portfolio Other Geographic structure of foreign investment inflow in Russian economy between January through September 2001 (the data over the 9 months of 2000 is given in brackets) US 12,6% (18,3%) UK 8,7% (5,4%) Germany 8,2% (14,9%) Others France 51,5% (38,6%) 9,6% (8,2%) Netherlands 9,4% (14,6%) Between January through September 2001 the It was Swiss businesses whose investment in the US investment mostly was forwarded to the indus- industrial sector proved to be biggest over the petrial sector (USD 457 mln., or 37.3% of the overall riod in question (27.1% of all the investments in the volume of the US investment in RF over the 9 industrial sector). The Swiss also dominated in inmonths of 2001) and transport (289 mln., or vesting in the sector for chemicals and petrochemi23.6%), while Germans were active in the food sec- cals (59.3%), the ferrous metallurgy (52%), and the tor (USD 149 mln., or 18.7% of the capital inflow fuel sector(17.8%).
from Germany between January through September The investment climate in the country finds itself 2001). under the positive impact of increase if Russia’s credit rating. In July 2001 FITCH increased Rus sia’s credit rating up to positive (“B”), while in De- long-term sovereign credit ratings in the national cember Standard and Poor’s also increased Russia’s currency and foreign exchange from “B” to “B+”.
E. Ilyukhina The real sector: factors and trends In 2001 Russian economy was characterized by the prior period. The acceleration of economic high growth rate. The rise of the national economy growth rates was noted across practically all the took place against the backdrop of the domestic main macroeconomic parameters.
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