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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES December 2002 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2001 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 02079 19 2000 .

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru The state of the federal budget.............................................................................................................3 Monetary Policy...................................................................................................................................5 Financial Markets.................................................................................................................................7 Foreign investment in Russian economy............................................................................................16 The real sector: factors and trends......................................................................................................19 Recapitalization of Russian banks in 2001.........................................................................................20 IET Business Survey: December 2001...............................................................................................22 The sector for oil and gas...................................................................................................................23 The 2002 Russian Agricultural Budget..............................................................................................26 Foreign trade.......................................................................................................................................28 2 The state of the federal budget Table 1 The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in comparable prices) X`00 00 I`01 II`01 III`01 IV`01 V`01 VI`01 VII`01 VIII`01 IX`01 X`Revenues Corporate profit tax 2,3% 2,5% 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 2,4% 2,6% 2,6% 2,5% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% Personal income tax 0,4% 0,4% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 7,0% 7,2% 9,0% 9,2% 9,0% 9,1% 9,3% 9,3% 9,2% 8,9% 8,6% 8,7% Tax on foreign trade and foreign 3,2% 3,2% 3,6% 4,1% 4,1% 4,0% 3,9% 4,0% 3,9% 3,9% 3,8% 3,7% trade operations Other taxes, duties and payments 0,3% 0,4% 1,1% 0,9% 0,8% 0,8% 0,7% 0,7% 0,7% 0,7% 0,7% 0,7% Total- taxes and charges 13,2% 13,7% 15,2% 15,7% 15,7% 16,3% 16,6% 16,6% 16,4% 16,1% 15,6% 15,5% Non- tax revenues 2,1% 2,3% 1,0% 1,1% 1,1% 1,2% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% 1,3% 1,3% 1,3% Revenues, total 15,3% 16,0% 16,2% 16,9% 16,9% 17,5% 17,8% 17,8% 17,7% 17,3% 16,8% 16,8% Expenditure Public administration 0,3% 0,4% 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% National defense 2,5% 2,7% 1,3% 2,0% 2,2% 2,5% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,6% International activities 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Judicial power 0,1% 0,1% 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% Law enforcement and security ac- 1,3% 1,5% 0,7% 1,1% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% tivities Fundamental research 0,2% 0,2% 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Services provided for the national 0,6% 0,9% 0,1% 0,3% 0,6% 0,6% 0,8% 1,0% 1,0% 1,0% 1,0% 1,0% economy Social services 1,7% 1,9% 1,3% 1,6% 1,9% 2,1% 2,0% 2,1% 2,1% 2,1% 2,0% 2,1% Servicing of public debt 2,7% 2,4% 3,2% 5,5% 4,7% 3,7% 3,3% 3,2% 2,9% 3,2% 3,2% 2,9% Other expenditure 2,7% 3,0% 3,3% 3,1% 2,9% 3,0% 3,1% 3,2% 3,1% 3,0% 3,0% 3,0% Expenditure, total 12,3% 13,5% 10,4% 14,4% 14,2% 14,1% 14,2% 14,5% 14,2% 14,3% 14,1% 13,9% Loans, redemption exclusive 3,0% 2,5% 5,8% 2,5% 2,6% 3,4% 3,7% 3,3% 3,5% 3,1% 2,7% 2,9% Expenditure and loans, redemption -0,3% 0,0% -3,7% -0,8% -0,6% -1,1% -1,7% -1,3% -1,1% -1,2% -0,9% -0,6% exclusive Budget deficit (-) -2,6% -2,4% -2,1% -1,7% -2,1% -2,3% -2,0% -2,0% -2,4% -1,9% -1,8% -2,3% Domestic financing -3,0% -2,5% -5,8% -2,5% -2,6% -3,4% -3,7% -3,4% -3,5% -3,1% -2,7% -2,9% Table 2. The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, actual financing) I`01 II`01 III`01 IV`01 V`01 VI`01 VII`01 VIII`01 IX`01 X`01 XI`Total 16,2% 16,9% 16,9% 17,5% 17,8% 17,9% 17,7% 17,3% 16,8% 16,8% 16,9% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% National defense 2,4% 2,5% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% 2,9% 2,9% 2,9% 2,8% 2,8% 2,8% International activities 0,5% 0,4% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% Law enforcement and security ac- 1,7% 2,0% 1,9% 1,8% 1,8% 1,8% 1,8% 1,7% 1,7% 1,7% 1,6% tivities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,7% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for the national 0,5% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% 1,2% 1,2% 1,2% economy Social services 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,5% 2,5% 2,3% 2,4% 2,3% Servicing of public debt 3,2% 5,5% 4,7% 4,3% 3,9% 3,2% 2,9% 3,2% 3,2% 2,9% 2,7% Other expenditure 3,7% 3,5% 3,2% 2,5% 2,7% 3,3% 3,2% 3,2% 2,6% 3,1% 3,0% Total expenditure 15,3% 18,3% 17,2% 16,4% 16,2% 16,3% 15,7% 15,9% 15,5% 15,2% 14,8% Proficit (+) / deficit (-) 0,9% -1,4% -0,3% 1,1% 1,7% 1,6% 2,0% 1,5% 1,3% 1,6% 2,1% The data on the execution of the federal budget of GDP (12.1 % in terms of fulfilled financing).

over the three quarters 2001 is presented in Table The level of budget proficit accounted for 2.9 % of GDP (2.1 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding).

11. As of November 1, the revenues to the federal budget 2001 accounted for 16.8% of GDP, includ- Between January through October 2001 the execution of the federal budget was characterized with ing tax revenues 15.5%, while expenditures made up 13.9 % of GDP (15.2% of GDP in terms of ful- the 2.3 per cent points excess of the level of tax revenues over the respective index of 2000, which, filled funding2), including non- interest ones 11 % Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may ferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash exebe subject to revision cution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds re The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (acmained on their accounts) tual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds trans again, can be attributed to the rise in collection of plus Rb. 68 bln. worth (0.8% of GDP) domestic indirect taxes, primarily VAT and excises (at 1.7 debt and Rb. 44 bln.. worth (0.5% of GDP) interp.p.), and taxes levied on foreign trade (0.5 p.p.). est payments on that. The expenditures on support The execution of the expenditure part of the fed- of the economys sectors nearly doubled compared eral budget between January through October in with last year (from 0.6% of GDP up to 1% of terms of fulfilled financing accounted for 15.2 %, GDP.

while in cash execution equivalent - 13.9 % of The main difference between the cash execution GDP. of expenditure and the fulfilled funding falls under The comparison of the budget execution indexes such budget outlays as national defense (0.2 p.p.), over the ten months of 2001 with those of 2000 al- law enforcement (0.3 p.p.), services to industry lows noting as follows: expenditures on public debt branches (0.2 p.p.), and the social sphere (0.servicing grew by 0.2 points (from 2.7% of GDP up p.p.).

to 2.9 % of GDP) over the period in question vs. the As of early November, the balances of accounts respective period of the prior year. At the same on accounting the federal budget funds (without retime between January through Octoberr the gov- gard to the funds accumulated on personal accounts ernment paid off Rb. 156 bln. (1.9% of GDP) of the of recipients of budget funds) grew up to Rb. 103.principal foreign debt and paid another Rb. 177.5 bln. (1.3% of GDP).

bln.-worth (2.2% of GDP) in interest payments, Table 3. Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC ( in prices of January 1998).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 10067 11586 12281 12287 10524 11369 12785 12838 12514 14238 16190 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 15030 16161 18247 20714 23469 18817 18219 18762 17422 18232 20306 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI 20580 19978 22917 26959 25311 23491 23342 23716 22088 23907 The dynamics of actual tax debts to the federal data has been changed, and the debts to the federal budget is given in Fig. 1. Since 2001 the form of budget across all the taxes are no longer singled the MTCs presentation of the respective statistical out.

Fig.Figure 1. Rate of growth of the real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to the preceding month) 60% Monthly rate of the VAT arrears(%) 50% Monthly rate of the profit tax arrears(%) Monthly rate of overall tax arrears(%) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% February April June August October December February April June August October December February April June August October December February April June August October December February April June August October December February April June August October Fig.Figure 2. Cumulative real monthly increase of tax arrears to the federal budget (in real RUR) 160 VAT arrears Profit tax arrears 140 Overall tax arrears 120 100 80 60 40 20 Table 4.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expenditures 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expenditures 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expenditures 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% Expenditures 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% The execution of the consolidated budget between 1998 through 2001 is represented in Table 4.

S. Batkibekov Monetary Policy In November 2001 CPI grew by 1.4%. Notably, 4.9%, prices for fruits and vegetables by 3.7%. A for the first time this year the cross-structure of higher price rise rate was fixed even for sunflower price growth appeared rather homogeneous: prices oil 8.5%. This can be attributed to a low output of for food stuffs and services rose by 1.5%, but the oil-yielding crops this year and high custom tariffs non-food goods price index grew by 1.1%. In De- on the respective imports.

cember, the impact of seasonal factors was greatest In December, a continuous tendency to inflation.: e.g., prices for milk and dairy products grew by acceleration was still there (see Fig. 1). Accord February April June August October December February April June August October December February April June August October December February April June August October December February April June August October December February April June August October ing to preliminary estimates, thegrew by 1.81.9% monitoring (while the absolute minimum was regisover the month, thus making up the highest tered in 1997 11%). In comparison with 2000, the monthly inflation rate since May 2001. Meanwhile, pace of consumer price growth dropped by apthe final value of inflation rate in 2001 was down proximately 1.1 percentage points. At the same compared to 2000. In 2001 this indicator (based on time we should note that variation of monthly CPI the CPI) roughly amounted to 19%, the second growth rates in 2001 was larger than in 2000.

lowest inflation rate rate noted over the period of FIGURE 1.

Consumer Price Index in 1,1% 0,9% 0,7% 0,5% 0,3% 0,1% -0,1% FIGURE 2.

Dynamics of Monetary Base and Foreign Reserves of the RCB in 680 39,38,Monetary Base (bln. rub.) 37,Foreign Reserves (bln. doll.) 630 36,35,34,580 33,32,31,530 30,29,28,480 27, % a week 1-7.1.2-8.7.9-15.4.7-13.5.4-10.6.3-9.12.15-21.1.12-18.2.12-18.3.23-29.4.21-27.5.18-24.6.16-22.7.13-19.8.10-16.9.24-30.9.8-14.10.5-11.11.29.1-4.2.26.2-4.3.26.3-1.4.30.7-5.8.27.8-2.9.22-28.10.19-25.11.17-23.12.bln. dollars bln. rubles 1-7.1.2-8.7.9-15.4.7-13.5.4-10.6.3-9.12.15-21.1.12-18.2.12-18.3.23-29.4.21-27.5.18-24.6.16-22.7.13-19.8.10-16.9.24-30.9.8-14.10.5-11.11.29.1-4.2.26.2-4.3.26.3-1.4.30.7-5.8.27.8-2.9.22-28.10.19-25.11.17-23.12.In early-December, in an attempt to stabilise the as of January 1, 2001. The real M2 amounted to rouble exchange rate, the Russian Central Bank had 108.6% against December 1997. Analysis of Mto to intervene heavily in the forex market attempt- structure (see Fig. 3) showed a slowdown in growth ing. This became visible through a substantial fall rate of balances on firms rouble accounts along in foreign reserves (see Fig. 2). Since in late- with an increase of individuals deposits in comNovember the foreign reserves dropped too, be- mercial banks. Thus, by end of September 2001 the cause of selling foreign exchange to the RF Minis- real balances on firms rouble accounts were try of finance, that repaid the Russian foreign debt, 138.1% against December 1997 (in December the total downfall in reserves reached up to $2.5 141.6%), i.e. they grew by 7.6% between January billion over the two weeks in question (6.5% of the to September 2001. At the same time, the real inditotal foreign reserves). In mid-December the situa- viduals deposits grew by 21.9% and reached the tion in the foreign exchange market stabilised, and level of 85.4% against December 1997. In our the Bank of Russia returned to accumulation of re- view, the tendency testifies to growth in the populaserves. So, by December 24 CBR managed to gain tions disposable income of as well as to growing some $200 million- worth foreign reserves. How- trust in the national banking system. Since the ever at present the Russian foreign reserves stand at share of expenditure on purchasing foreign exthe level of late-July 2001 ($36.3 billion).

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