– - suspension of bidding at MICEX and RTS stock exchange in the afternoon due to the collapse of technical MICEX index over 10 per cent by the beginning of trades October 30 – RF CB publication of information on reducing the volume of foreign currency reserves of Russia by USD 31 billion from October 17 to –«Vnesheconombank» decision to grant a creditto UC Rusal in the amount of USD 4.5 billion on bail of 25 per cent shares in MMC «Nornikel» – temporary suspension of bidding at MICEX and RTS stock exchange due to the collapse of technical iindices over 10 per cent by the beginning of trades – US FRS has declined the refinancing rate up to 1 per cent – oil prices have grown over USD 65 per barrel November 4 – Barack Obama’s victory at the Presidents’ elections in USA November 6 – RF CB publication of information on reducing the volume of foreign currency reserves of Russia by USD 0.1 billion from October 24 to – the RF CB entered into agreements with OAO «MDM-Bank», ZAO «Raiffeisenbank» and «Sberbank Russia» on partial compensation of their losses in the inter-banking transactions – oil prices decline below USD 60 per barrel, USD strengthening in the global market November 7 – lowering the discount rate by the European Central Bank (ECB) to 3.25 per cent, In the course of preparation of the survey, there were used analytical materials and surveys published by the Zenith Bank, investment company ATON, MICEX, and the materials presented at web sites of Russian issuing companies.
by the Bank of England from 4.5 per cent to 3 per cent, as well as by the Central Bank of Switzerland to 2 per cent – publication of macroeconomic statistics from the US, informing on the unemployment rate growth in October to 6.5 per cent November 10 – Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Russian sovereign rating forecast from «stable» to «negative» November 11 –RF CB has extended the range of permissible ruble value volatility in the twocurrency basket by 30 kopeks in both ways – temporary suspension of bidding at MICEX and RTS stock exchange due to the collapse of technical iindices over 5 per cent by the beginning of trades – oil prices decline below USD 56 per barrel November 12 – refinancing rate upgrading up to 12 per cent per annum by the RF CB – revocation of bank licenses from the ZAO “MIRA-BANK” and ZAO “ECONATSBANK”, for failing, among other things to perform their obligations.
Liquidation of AKB “MCB” license due to termination of its activities – suspension of bidding at MICEX stock exchange for the complete working day and at RTS in the afternoon – message from the US Ministry of Finance on rejection to acquire non-liquid mortgage assets – oil price downfall to the level of USD 52 per barrel; USD strengthening against EURO November 13 – RF CB publication of information on reducing the volume of foreign currency reserves of Russia by USD 9.2 billion from October 31 to November – suspension of biddings at MICEX stock exchange till November 17 due to technical indices decline below the preset value November 14 – revocation of AKB “Lefko-bank” license for failing, among other things to perform its obligations November 16 –the Government of Italy decided to allocate EURO 80 billion to support the national economy – decline the bank JPMorgan Chase & Co in net profit by 60 per cent within months in 2008, reports on mass dismissals of employees November 17 – Citigroup ban has informed on staff reduction – message on a draft law development for the support of the US automotive industry November 20 – RF CB publication of information on reducing the volume of foreign currency reserves of Russia by USD 21.9 billion from November 7 to – revocation of bank licenses from the OAO KB «SIBCONTRACT» and OOO KIIB “SOCHI” for failing, among other things to perform their obligations – significant downfall in quotations of the US automobile producers, General Motors and Ford Motor, as well as decline in shares of the US major banks, Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co – oil prices downgrading below USD 50 per barrel November 21 – additional measures to support the real sector of the Russian economy, in particular the reduction of corporate income tax to 20 per cent from 1 January 2009 and downgrading the tax deduction – the closure of three banks in the US - Downey Savings and Loan Association, PFF Bank & Trust and The Community Bank November 24 – RF CB has involved «RusRating» and «Expert RA» national rating agencies to assess creditability of credit organizations ratings – RF Ministry of Finance has allocated of USD 20 billion in order to support Citigroup Capital Bank – development of a package of specific measures to support the UA economy – RF FAS has imposed penalty for violating anti-monopoly legislation on TNK-BP (RUR 1.112 trillion) and on «Gazprom Neft» (RUR 1.357 trillion) November 27 – RF CB publication of information on reducing the volume of foreign currency reserves of Russia by USD 0.1 billion from November 14 to – revocation of bank licenses from the OAO KB «INTEGRO» and OOO Kurganprombank, for failing, among other things to perform their obligations Government securities market In November, Russian Eurobonds demonstrated a volatile dynamics in the yields at the background of negative external news and aggravated liquidity crisis on the one hand, and measures, taken by the RF government to support banking sector and securities market on the other hand.
As of November 23, 2008, the Russian Eurobonds’ RUS-10 yield to maturity has increased as compared with the level of October 26, 2008 from 5.32 to 11.24 per cent per annum (2.1 times), RUS18 – from 7.06 to 8.08 per cent per annum (by 14.45 per cent). As opposed to that, RUS-28 yield to maturity has declined from 10.50 to 5.99 per cent per annum (by 1.75 per cent), RUS-28 has declined from 12.50 to 11.94 per cent per annum. On the same date, the yield to redemption of external currency debt bonds has declined against the indicator of October 26 from 4.29 to 4.28 per cent per annum (by 0.23 per cent) (see Figs 1-2).
4,65% Tranche 4,55% 4,45% 4,35% 4,25% 4,15% 4,05% 3,95% Fig. 1.Minfin bonds' yields to maturity in September - November 01.09.04.09.09.09.12.09.17.09.22.09.25.09.30.09.03.10.08.10.188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.05.11.12.11.13,50% RUS-2030 RUS-2010 RUS-2018 RUS-12,00% 10,50% 9,00% 7,50% 6,00% 4,50% 3,00% 1,50% Fig. 2. Yields to maturity of the Russian eurobonds with maturity in 2010, 2018, 2028 and 2030 in September - November Within the period from October 27 to November 23 the total turnover of GKO- OFZ secondary market amounted to approximately RUR 48.98 billion with an average daily turnover of RUR 2.billion. (about RUR 44.40 billion with an average daily turnover of RUR 2.22 billion in October), what demonstrated a decline of average daily turnover in November as compared with preceding month by 16.22 per cent.
There were no auctions on additional OFZ placements in the period from October 27 to November 23.
As of November 23, the GKO-OFZ market amounted to RUR 1144.02 bln at face value and to RUR 1048.63 bln at market value. The duration of the GKO-OFZ market portfolio was 2022.22 days, having significantly increased (by 7.4 days) as compared with preceding month (as of October 26, 2008).
Stock market Stock market situation In November, Russian Eurobonds demonstrated a volatile dynamics in the yields at the background of negative external news, on the one hand, and measures, taken by the government authorities, the RF government among them, to support national economies on the other hand. The emergence of new victims of the financial crisis in Russia among credit organizations due to the failure to promptly perform their obligations, RUR downgrading against USD and the Euro, as well as RF CB upgrading the refinancing rate to 12 per cent and extending the range of permissible ruble value volatility in the two-currency basket by 30 kopeks in both ways. Moreover, the situation in the Russian stock market has been significantly aggravated since November 10, when Fitch Ratings has downgraded the forecast for the Russian sovereign rating from “stable” to “negative”. However, measures, taken by the Government of the Russian Federation to support the national financial market had a positive impact on investors' expectations in general. In particular, it is worth mentioning:
• Granting the right to the RF CB to participate in the stock markets bids, • strengthening the role of «the Agency for Deposit Insurance» in preventing the banks bankruptcy, • granting loans by the Russian public banks to commercial banks and enterprises in the real sector, 01.09.04.09.09.09.12.09.17.09.22.09.25.09.30.09.03.10.08.10.220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.29.10.01.11.07.11.12.11.22.214.171.124.• RF CB agreements with several banks for compensation of losses on their loans in the interbanking market, • approval for the RF CB to apply national agencies «RusRating» and «Expert RA» rating for assessment creditability of credit organizations,.
Sudden changes in investors’ behavior due to external and domestic news from the Russian stock markets were suppressed during the month in the traditional now way, i.e., the suspension of biddings on Russian stock exchanges MICEX and RTS. All those factors have urged the upgrading of the most liquid securities in the Russian stock markets in November (up to 30 per cent), as well as the majority of MICEX and RTS market stock indices growth over 20 per cent as compared with preceding month.
Throughout September a volatile dynamics was observed in the Russian stock market, where, sharp downfalls were replaced with expressed growth. Thus, while before November 10, a general trend to MICEX index growth was observed, in the second part of the month a downgrading tendency was expressed. The minimum value for the month the MICEX index reached on November 21: 516.points (which is by 0.64 per cent more than the relevant indicator for the previous period). The maximum value for the month the MICEX index reached on November 5: 775.19 points (which is by per cent per cent lower than the relevant indicator for the previous period. Such MICEX index dynamics in November has reflected a general volatile trend in the quotations of the Russian companies' equities (Fig. 3). 3).
In general, within the period from October 23 to November 26, 2008, the MICEX index has somewhat increased by 0.64 per cent in absolute terms and made about 3.31 points (within the year, from November 24, 2007 to November 23, 2008 the MICEX index has downgraded 3.47 times). Over the same period the turnover of trades in shares, included in the MICEX index, made about RUR 455.bln at an average daily turnover of RUR 23.97 bln. (against RUR 424.10 billion with an average daily turnover of RUR 21.21 billion in the preceding period). Therefore, the investors’ average daily activity in the stock market in November has increased as compared with the preceding month by 13 per cent. The indicators of maximum and minimum daily turnover in the market trades in November made, accordingly, RUR 35.30 bln. (as of November 5), and RUR 13.70 bln. (as of November 1).
150 2 000,The total volume of trading 140 1 900,(roubles, billion) MICEX Index 130 1 800,120 1 700,110 1 600,100 1 500,90 1 400,80 1 300,70 1 200,60 1 100,50 1 000,40 900,30 800,20 700,10 600,0 500,Fig. 3. Dynamics of MICEX Index and trading volume points roubles, billion 03.09.20.09.09.10.26.10.15.11.04.12.21.12.18.01.06.02.26.02.17.03.03.04.22.04.13.05.30.05.19.06.08.07.25.07.13.08.01.09.18.09.07.10.126.96.36.199.35,00% 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% -5,00% Change in price (%) Fig. 4.Dynamics of the Russian Blue Chips from October 27 to November 23, As of monthly results (from October 27 through November 23), the majority of “blue chips” have shown some growth, excluding “Rosneft”, the value of which has upgraded in November by 1.per cent and VTB Bank securities, the value of which remained unchanged. Thus, the utmost downgrading rates were demonstrated by “Tatneft” and “Sberbank of Russia”, the value of which has declined by 33 per cent and 29.94 per cent, accordingly. Significant growth was observed also about shares of “Mosenergo” (by 23.01 per cent), VGMK “Nornickel” (by 18.21 per cent) and “Gaspromneft” (by 14.60 per cent. Some lower decline rates were observed about the shares of “Surgutneftegas” (by 8.12 per cent), “Gazprom” (by 5.08 per cent), LUKOIL (by 4.97 per cent) and “Rostelecom” (by 4.51 per cent) (See Fig. 4). 4).
In November the MICEX turnover leaders were: “Gazprom”(40.88 per cent of the total turnover), “Sberbank of Russia” (20.61 per cent), “LUKOIL” (7.80 per cent), “Rosneft” (7.48 per cent) and GMK “Nornickel” (7.47 per cent). Total share of transactions with the above five companies’ equities (“blue chips”) made about 84.24 per cent (all “blue chips” – 92.02 per cent) of the gross turnover in the MICEX stock market in the period of October 27 to November 23.
According to MICEX information, as of November 23, the top five leaders of the domestic stock market in terms of capitalization, estimated on monthly average results, were: Gazprom “– RUR 2,737.61 bln (RUR 4,928.35 bln in October), “Rosneft” – RUR 922.61 bln, (RUR 1,736.05 bln in preceding month), “LUKOIL” - RUR 755.34 bln, (RUR 1,313.53 bln in October), “Sberbank of Russia” – RUR 633.58 bln (against RUR 1,018.04 bln), “Surgutneftegas” – RUR -485.87 bln (RUR 490.41 billion a month before). Therefore, business capitalization has been decreased by 40-50 per cent on average. The exception made «Surgutneftegaz», high performance liquid assets of which has suppressed the reduction the capitalization decline only by 1 per cent as compared with October. The company took the fifth place among the market leaders in October, having dismissed GMK «Nornikel», whose capitalization has decreased by 47 per cent to the level of RUR 371.36 billion (697.billion rubles a month before).