СФП Отработанны е часы 4 Занятость Степень загрузки мощностей Основные фонды -2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Fig 1. GDP growth structure within 2000- The details of methodology are presented in IET publication “Economic Factor Growth”, Research works,, N70, IET, М. 2003, 390С., www.iet.ru.
Reviewing the dynamics of SFP, one should note a trend to its growth decline: in accordance with the linear trend, annual decline in TFP growth in 2000-2007 was 0.18 percentage points (according to preliminary estimates, this indicator for 2000-2008 made 0.14 percentage points).
Speaking of the contribution of total factor productivity in GDP growth, one should take into regard not only the intensive, especially "technological" component, enabling to achieve the efficiency of production, but also other factors, disregarded in assessment of labor and capital input. One of those factors is the price in the world commodity markets, defining the volatility in prices of production output and capital resources, what is confirmed by the chart, demonstrating TFP growth versus global oil prices growth rates, presented in Figure 2.
2 ----1995 y = 0.111x - 0.R2 = 0.---40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Темпы роста цен на нефть, % Fig 2. TFP growth rates versus global market oil prices within 1993-2008.Окончательный остаток Рост цен на нефть Отработанные часы Занятость Степень 0 загрузки мощностей Основные -фонды 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Fig.3. GDP growth decomposition in 2000-2008 with regard to oil prices impact.
For 2008 oil price growth is assessed for eleven monthes.
Темпы роста СФП, % The evident interdependence of TFP growth and growth in the world oil prices enables to make further decomposition of the output growth rate, highlighting market component in TFP. As a result, the «final balance», purified from the impact of price changes in world commodity markets, is a more precise indicator of the technological productivity, i.e., the intensive output growth component (see Fig. 3).
As a result of decomposition, disregard of the factor of pricing conditions in the international commodity markets leads to a decline in the contribution of "technology" component to GDP growth.
In the period 2000-2007 average changes in price factor made 23 per cent in the output growth rate, while the technological factor makes the balance of 39.4 per cent. Herewith, in accordance with the linear trend, price factor growth rates were declining annually by 0.06 percentage points on average, while the growth rate of technological productivity - by 0.12 p.p. According to preliminary estimates, in 2008, on the contrary, there is a substantial increase of price component input in GDP growth, which, despite a significant decline in oil prices, started in September, reached 75.8 per cent in annual terms. In doing so, the contribution of intense growth component in 2008 has moved to the range of negative values (for the first time since 2000). In part, this result can be based on the applied method of balance splitting. Moreover, the assessment of "final balance" could be shifted down due to the fact that the preliminary assessment of growth decomposition in 2008 does not take into account the impact of changes in the number of working hours.
Therefore, in accordance with the obtained assessment for the 2000-2008, despite the downward trend in growth rates, the total factor of productivity remains the dominant factor in the GDP growth, making about 60 per cent of the average rate of output growth. However, it should be noted, that in 2008 a slowdown in TFP growth rate is based on negative dynamics in "technological" performance at the background of increasing average annual growth rate of the world oil prices.
Investing retirement savings in the system of mandatory pension insurance in the first six months of L. Mikhailov, L. Sychev Within six months the value of the assets in the mandatory accumulative pension system, excluding funds of insurance deductions in the RPF, increased by 1.8 per cent (from RUR 402 to 409 billion) as compared with 2.6 per cent in the first half of 2007 - see Table 122.
Over fifty per cent of retirement savings in private trust management companies, are concentrated in five companies (61 per cent at the end of the second quarter of 2008).
The share of leaders - Pension Reserve Management Company and the Rosbank Management Company amounted to, respectively, 13.8 and 12.6 per cent of the total pension savings in a trust trust management companies. On the other hand, the smallest share of 10 investment portfolios in the amount 0.3 per cent of aggregate trust management companies investment portfolio. The average volume of the investment portfolio managed by trust management companies was RUR 198 million, whereas the market value of 13 out of 62 investment portfolios made less than RUR 10 million.
Table The value of the assets in the mandatory funded pension system, 2007 (RUR bln).
1.1.2007 1.4.2007 1.7.2007 1.10.2007 1.1.2008 1.4.2008 1.7.The value of assets invested in pension savings, allocated in 276.2 270 274.5 340.1 375.1 360.7 366.management companies including public management 267.1 260.7 265.1 329 362.9 348.7 353.company including private management 9.2 9.4 9.4 11.1 12.2 12.1 12.company Retirement savings in RPF 9.96 19.85 19.25 25.55 26.8 42.6 43.Total 286.2 289.85 293.75 365.65 401.9 403.3 409. Hereinafter RF Pension Fund and Federal Service for Financial Market is provided.
Investments structure The structure of investment Vnesheconombank and the aggregate investment portfolio of trust management companies at the end of 2007, as well as at the end of the 2-nd quarter of 2007 are shown in Fig. 1-4.
Investments of trust management companies In the first six months of 2008, the share of securities in the investment portfolio of trust management companies was growing (from 88.6 to 96.6 per cent) and decrease of the share of funds, allocated at the accounts of credit organizations (from 9.9 to 1.4 per cent). Herewith, the share of investment in Government savings bonds23 in the trust management companies investment portfolio has increased from 28 to 38 per cent, or 39 per cent of the total investment in government securities in rubles.
Средства в кредитных Государственные ценные организациях в рублях Государственные ценные Прочие 9.9% бумаги РФ в рублях бумаги РФ в инвалюте 1.5% 84.3% 4.3% Fig. 1.Structure of the investment portfolio of public management company (Vnesheconombank) at the end of Средства в кредитных Прочие организациях в рублях 2.1% Государственные ценные 1.4% бумаги РФ в инвалюте 0.8% Государственные ценные бумаги РФ в рублях 95.7% Fig. 2. Structure of the investment portfolio of public management company (Vnesheconombank) at the end of Government savings bonds (GSO) are non-marketable securities, issued by the Ministry of Finance for institutional investors. Investments in CRM are available from mid-2007. There are no these securities in trust management companies portfolio.
Investments in trust management companies The share of government securities in the structure of investments in trust management companies was declining, while the share of the Russian corporate bonds was growing. The percentage of federal bonds has declined in 2007 from 10.4 per cent to 4.4 per cent in the first half of 2008 fell down to 2.per cent. The proportion of subnational bonds has changed insignificantly, from 11.2 per cent to 10.per cent. At the same time, the proportion of corporate bonds in an aggregate investment portfolio of trust management companies has increased from 38.8 per cent to 47.1 per cent.
In the short prospective the growth of corporate bonds share could be justified. As shown in Figure 5, the indices of corporate and government bonds had positive dynamics in the period under review.
Herewith, federal bonds index increased by 2.1 per cent and the index of corporate bonds - by at 2.per cent, but in June 2008 index of corporate bonds started to decline and within 12 trading days has lost more than 1 per cent24.
Государственные ценные бумаги РФ Муниципальные 4.6% облигации Средства на счетах 1.5% в кредитных организациях депозиты субфедеральные Прочие 1.9% 7.3% облигации 4.4% 11.2% Облигации Акции российских 30.2% хозяйственных обществ 38.8% Fif. 3. Structure of the investment portfolios of private management companies at the end of MICEX index of corporate bonds is not a sufficiently precise indicator for evaluating the effectiveness of trust management companies investment in corporate bonds, because It their structure is much broader than the bonds, included in the list of the highest rating level bonds and recommended trust management companies to invest pension savings. However, the cumulative index trust management companies investment portfolio of compulsory pension insurance is not estimated.
Государственные ценные бумаги РФ Муниципальные 2.7% облигации Средства на счетах 2.6% в кредитных организациях депозиты 0.8% Прочие субфедеральные 8.9% 3.2% облигации 10.9% Акции 23.8% Облигации российских хозяйственных обществ 47.1% Fig. 4.. Structure of the investment portfolios of private management companies at the end of the 2-nd quarter of 1 – Index of government bonds of the RF Zenit Bank (ZETBI-OFZ) 2 – Index of corporate MICEX (MICEX RCBI-с) Source: MICEX, ZENITH bank web-sites.
Fig. 5. Dynamics of OFZ and corporate bonds indices in 2007-the first half of 2008.
The share of bonds in trust management companies aggregate investment portfolio has declined to 21.2 per cent (from 30.2 per cent at the end of 2007 to 23.8 per cent at the end of the 2-nd quarter).
29.12.29.01.28.02.29.03.29.04.29.05.29.06.29.07.29.08.29.09.188.8.131.52.29.12.29.01.29.02.29.03.29.04.29.05.29.06.Index MICEX-1025 securities, which is at first approximation shows the dynamics of Russian «blue chips» fell by only 8.85 per cent at the same period (see Fig. 6).
Such proportion allows to make a conclusion, that the share of bonds in the trust management companies aggregate investment portfolio decreased not only because of declining market value of the bonds, but also as a result of changes in the trust management companies investment policy, aimed at reducing the share of assets with volatile yield.
ММВБ10 RTS (USD) Source: MICEX, RTS.
Fig. 6. RTS and MICEX -10 in 2007-2008.
Investment Yield Yield pension savings, invested in trust management companies, as per results of the first half of 2008 amounted to 4.85 per cent, which is better than the result of the first quarter, but still below the yield rates of federal bonds during this period (see Fig. 7).
% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 2007 срок до погашения от 90 дней до года срок до погашения более года доходность ВЭБ Source: RF Central Bank, Vnesheconombank.
Note. Data on Vnesheconombank bonds yield for the reporting dates are provided for the period from the beginning of the year in annual terms.
Fig. 7. Weighted average interest rates of federal bonds market and government trust management companies yield within 2007 - the first half of Index MICEX-10, due to its structure, better reflects the value dynamics of those shares, which can be used for pension savings investment. Moreover, unlike the RTS index, it is assessed in rubles. However, not all companies, included in the index estimates, are in the listing of higher-level Russian exchange quotations, and consequently, some of them are not available for investment of pension savings.
29.12.29.01.28.02.29.03.29.04.29.05.29.06.29.07.29.08.29.09.184.108.40.206.29.12.29.01.29.02.29.03.29.04.29.05.29.06.The nominal yield of the trust management companies aggregate investment portfolio for the first half of 2008 was 6.2 per cent in annual terms (versus the average net value of the assets, estimated in accordance with the requirements of Art. 16 of the Federal Law «On investment the assets for financing the accumulative share of labor pensions in the Russian Federation» ). Profitability of some investment portfolios were changing in the range from 7.2 per cent to 21.3 per cent per annum, positive dynamics in the yields have demonstrated only 14 investment portfolios, managed by trust management companies. At the same time, there was a high negative correlation between the percentage of shares in investment portfolios and the yields (-73.7 per cent). Results of the leaders of the absolute size of investment portfolios at the middle of 2008 are shown in Table. 2. As shown, the difficult situation in the stock market affected the results of all leading investors. The real yield of four out of five management companies was negative, but in terms of long three-year period they all have demonstrated the yield, exceeding the public managing companies average annual investment yield in the same period (which amounted to 7.3 per cent as of mid-2008).
Table Yield of investments of trust management companies with the most significant portfolios as of mid-Yield in Yield in the first Portfolio market preceding half of 2008, value, RUR mln years, % per annum % per annum PENSION RESERVE FUND 1698.9 0.26 13.MANAGEMENT COMPANY ROSBANK MANAGEMENT COMPANY 1549.1 -5.15 8.URALSIB MANAGEMENT COMPANY 1205.6 -12.81 15.TROYKA DIALOG MANAGEMENT COMPANY 1085.4 -21.3 18.SOLID MANAGEN MANAGEMENT COMPANY 982.1 -10.56 13.Principle of reciprocity in cases of cross-border bankruptcy К.А. Lebed The problem of recognizing the claims of creditors in cases of cross-border bankruptcy is complicated and includes a number of separate issues. The most pressing among them is the application by the Russian courts the principle of reciprocity, proper understanding and observance of which contributes to the improvement of law enforcement in such cases, as well as institutional development of cross-border insolvency in general. The cases of bankruptcy of physical and legal entities are related to special competence of arbitration courts, which are acting through the arbitration procedures, stipulated by the Arbitration Procedural Code (hereinafter - APC). This provision is an exception to the general jurisdiction of Civil Affairs, under which cases of physical persons are reviewed by courts of general jurisdiction in civil proceedings. Arbitration courts, according to part 3 of Article 33 of the Federal Law «On insolvency (bankruptcy)», usually do not review cases on bankruptcy.
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