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Since 2005 the share of competitive markets with domestic competition has been decreasing in the Russina industry. In 2006 this index lost 2 p.p., in 2007 3 p.p. more. It is possible that the trend for the growth of competitive markets share in Russian industry that could be traced with little interruption over the whole period of monitoring has exhausted. In 2007 the share of such markets on average is equal to 89% by all the branches of industry.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHARE OF COMPETITIVE MARKETS IN RUSSIAN INDUSTRY WITH COMPETITION FROM RUSSIA % CIS COUNTRIES NON-CIS COUNTRIES 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 In 2007 the share of competitive markets differs insignificantly by branches. It is only metallurgy that stands out by this index. There the share of competitive markets fell down to 79% in 2007 which is the minimum for branches this year. In 2007 the leader by this index the same as in the previous year is light industry: the competition is felt by enterprises at 98% of the markets. Construction materials production is characterized by exceptionally high and stable share of competitive markets in the years after the default this figure has not been lower than 90%, in 2001 and 2005 it was 95% but lately it has only been 91%. This is perhaps accounted for by the building boom, which enables the producers to sell all the goods produced nearly at any prices.

The data on the proportion of markets with the competition of enterprises from non-CIS countries is characterized by considerably less uniformity. Thus, in 2007 the minimum branch value was equal to 38% and was obtained for construction materials industry. In metallurgy the same figure for the past year was equal to 75%, exceeding it in nearly two times. The second place by the protection of import competition (or to be more precise of import diffusion) is held by foodstuffs production. Its enterprises have faced import only at 49% of the markets over the period of monitoring. The enterprises and wood-processing complex confront import a bit more often. On average its markets have been 51% competitive. However over the last three years the proportion of competitive import share at the branches of industry markets has been increasing and in 2006 reached 81% - which is the maximum for branches of industry this year.

The most wide presence of competing import was characteristic for chemistry and petrochemistry markets in 1995-2007. The average level of these markets competitiveness was equal to 67%. The maximum figure was registered in 2005 and was equal to 81%. For 1995-2007 in the total rating of market competitiveness the second place is held by machine-building industry. Competing import at the markets of this industry has been expanding over the period of monitoring and had reached 79% by 2006. And even after a decrease the markets of machine-building still hold the second place by the index in question. In 2007 it is the metallurgy industry that is in the first place by the presence of competing import. However even its result was not the highest for the branch: import has been decreasing its presence in the industry since 2005, when it reached absolute maximum of 84%. And only foodstuffs production felt bigger presence of the competing import than in the preceding years. At the moment import is competing with domestic foodstuffs producers at 62% of the markets. It should be taken into account that the presence of competing import in the branch has nearly doubled since 2002: from 32% to 62%. Before that (in 1998-2002) the presence of import decreased in two times precisely (from 64% to 32%). Such distinct trends have not been observed for any other branches of domestic industry.

Contact of light industry enterprises with competing import is not as big as it may seem basing on some expert conclusions (see ! .). In 2007 the enterprises of the industry have competed with import at only 66% of their markets, one third of markets being free from competing import. IT should be noted that these markets are free from both white and gray import since while estimating the competition the enterprises take into account all the imported goods present at their markets notwithstanding their customs purity. The proportion of the competitive markets where domestic production competes with goods from CIS countries is a bit bigger for light industry 65%, And nearly all the markets of light industry are subject to competition with other Russian producers: 98% of light industry enterprises are aware of the competition of the fellow producers. It should be noted that the latter figure has been relatively stable in the range of 94-98% - since 2002.

THE DYNAMICS OF THE SHARE OF COMPETITIVE MARKETS IIN LIGHT INDUSTRY WITH COMPETITION % DOMESTIC FROM CIS COUNTRIES FROM NON-CIS COUNTRIES 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Intensity of Competition in the Industry In 2007 the trend for the decrease in intensity of three kinds of competition, which appeared in 2006, became more evident (see ! .). The main indices of competition, monitored by the IET since 1995, demonstrated the fall of competition by three directions (domestic Russian competition, competition with CIS countries, competition with non-CIS countries).

The year index of domestic competition was changed most dramatically: it has lost 0.15 points over the last year and 0.24 points over the last two years. The decrease in competition was especially impressive in the first half of 2007 when the index was equal only to 3.88. this was the minimum for 2003-2007. Over 2005-2007 the dynamics of competition with import changed the lest: here the drop was only of 0.07 points, so it would be more correct to say that the figure has been stable. So over thirteen years of monitoring the maximum intensity of competition at the markets of Russian industrial enterprises was observed in when all three indices reached absolute maximum values.

In 2006-2007 the level of domestic competition has decreased in nearly all the branches of Russian industry. The index dropped especially dramatically in metallurgy: competition index has lost 0.59 points and is now equal to only 3.59, that is it is on the borderline between the categories moderate and weak. The values of this figure in other branches of industry have not reduced below the level of moderate. Domestic competition suffered minimum losses in light industry, where competition index, having reached absolute maximum in 2006, decreased by 0.01 point the following year, that is it remained at the same level THE DYNAMICS OF THE LEVEL OF COMPETITION STRONG 5 WITH DIFFERENT PRODUCERS IN RUSSIAN INDUSTRY FROM RUSSIA MODERATE FROM NON-CIS COUNTRIES WEAK FROM CIS COUNTRIES NONE 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 THE DYNAMICS OF THE COMPETITION LEVEL WITH DIFFERENT PRODUCERS IN LIGHT INDUSTRY STRONG FROM RUSSIA MODERATE FROM NON-CIS COUNTRIES WEAK FROM CIS COUNTRIES NONE 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 The competition with import in the branch has decreased since 2005. In 2006 it lost 0.46 points at once, going then however up by 0.16. But 2005 remains the period of the most violent struggle with import that required not only mobilization of all the efforts of the enterprises to assert their positions at the market but also the actions of the government to prevent illegal import. The results of these actions are still experienced by the enterprises of the branch.

Foodstuffs industry which is traditionally considered to be the most protected from the import from non-CIS countries justified its reputation in 2007 as well: the level of competition in the in the branch remained at its previous, extremely low level In 2007 the level of competition with import was on average estimated to be 2.92 points, that is it was below the level of weak. In 2002 the situation at the sales market concerning competition with import was exceptionally favorable for Russian foodstuffs producers: they competed with import at the minimal number of markets, intensity of competition there was not significantly different from the level of none. Competition of foodstuffs enterprises with the producers from CIS countries has been becoming more and more intensive over the last years and more and more exceeds the competition with the products from non-CIS countries. However even here the absolute levels of competition overcame the level of weak only in 2005, but, reaching intensity of 3.29 points in 2006, have decreased down to 3.11 in 2007. In other words, no import can affect our foodstuffs production.

DYNAMICS OF THE LEVEL OF COMPETITION WITH DIFFERENT FOODSTUFFS PRODUCERS STRONG FROM RUSSIA MODERATE FROM NON_CIS FROM CIS COUNTRIES COUNTRIES WEAK NONE 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 The domestic Russian competition is in contrast characterized not only by general and the biggest widespread but also the highest intensity. Average indices of competition for any period of monitoring (19952007, pre- or post-default) give the branch the first place as compared with other branches. In 2007 the intensity of competition in the branch yields only to the results of domestic competition in light industry.

DYNAMICS OF LEVEL OF COMPETITION WITH DIFFERENT PRODUCERS IN METALLURGY STRONG FROM RUSSIA MODERATE WEAK FROM CIS FROM NON_CIS COUNTRIES COUNTRIES NONE 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 In machine-building the maximum of domestic competition as well as in the majority of other branches was passed in 2005. This was the result of slow but steady growth of competition in the branch over the last 10 years. Then the reduction of this figure has started as a result of which the index went down to 4.09, that is it in fact returned to previous moderate values. As in all other branches domestic competition remains the most intensive kind of competition at the sales markets of Russian machine-building. Competition with import goods has always been considerably behind the fight with the internal enemy. The competition with import reached its peak in 2006. But even then its value was only on the border between weak and moderate. Up to 2002 the competition with import from non-CIS countries could not break away from the level of moderate and competition with the import from CIS countries managed to do this only in 2005. Thus, in pre-default period which is traditionally regarded as the period of import inundation machine-building did not suffered much from the latter. However it is hard to regard the present level of competition with import as crucial for the branch: it is considered to be strong by 38% of machine-building factories, moderate by 21%, weak by 12%. 16% of enterprises claimed that it is definitely absent. The latter figure is the maximum for this index since 1998. In other words no more machine-building factories experience competition of non-CIS countries producers than there were at the very beginning of the current period of ruble depreciation and substitution of import accompanying it. At the moment domestic machine producers treat appreciated ruble exchange rate with less apprehension than some analysts and authorities.

The only branch where the competition with import proved to be stronger than domestic competition was metallurgy. Such unique for Russian industry situation has arisen in the branch in 2007. It was the consequences of processes of opposite direction. On one hand the level of domestic competition has sharply decreased over 2006-2007: competition index has lost 0.67 points and is now on the borderline between the estimations weak and moderate. Similar drop applied to the competition with the competition with the CIS countries producers. It seems that the processes of mergers and take-overs in the territory of the former USSR were the reason. On the other hand it is more difficult to unite and come to agreement with the metallurgy producers from non-CIS countries, so they have to be competed with. And it appears that competition is utterly violent since there is a lot at stake for big companies and no mercy for the defeated. It should be however noted that the level of competition with the import is not extremely high as compared with the corresponding figure in other branches. In 2007 it has just reached the level of two years ago, to which chemistry and petrochemistry were then near. It is all about extremely low level if domestic competition, which had been formed by the beginning of 2007. This figure really makes metallurgy stand out among other branches.

Foreign Trade N.Volovik Although in September 2007 the trend for anticipating growth of import sustained, favorable situation at the world market contributed to acceleration of export growth. It is the price factor that is obtaining still stronger influence on Russian import growth. In November 2007 the Government of the Russian Federation continued the work in the field of tariffs regulation in order to stabilize the prices for foodstuffs At bilateral negotiations on Russias accession to the WTO between the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia that took place in November 2007 the final agreement could not be reached.

In September 2007 Russias foreign trade turnover calculate don the basis of balance-of-payments methodology was equal to USD 48.7 bln. As compared with August of the current year it reduced by 4.2% and as compared with September 2006 increased by 20.6%.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Balance Export Import Fig 1. Main Indices of Russian Foreign Trade (as USD billion) Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation Thus, in September 2007 the main trend of the current year sustained in Russian foreign trade: as a result of anticipating growth of import trade balance surplus is decreasing. However against the background of improving situation at the world market for Russian exporters increase in export in September compared with September 2006 has been the highest in the current year 16.1%. At the same time Russian import growth has fallen a bit in July it reached 41%, in August 37.2%, in September 28.6%. As a result surplus Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep of Russias foreign trade operations was equal to USD11.2 bln in September 2007, which is just by 0.2% lower than a year ago.

Increase in Russian export growth rates is due to considerable growth of world prices for most important raw materials, especially on oil.

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