01.09.20.09.06.10.24.10.10.11.28.11.14.12.09.01.25.01.13.02.02.03.22.03.09.04.25.04.15.05.31.05.19.06.05.07.23.07.08.08.24.08.11.09.27.09.15.10.184.108.40.206.have downgraded by 0.56 points (- 0.48 per cent). Within that period the total turnover in MICEX corporate bond sector amounted to nearly RUR 44.35 bln with an average daily turnover of RUR 2.22 bln (about RUR 54.8 bln with an average daily turnover of RUR 2.74 bln in the relevant period of September). Therefore, the investors’ activity has noticeably decreased within the month.
External factors behind Russian stock market dynamics One of the basic factors, supporting the Russian stock market during the month, was the world oil market, where prices in November have reached an absolute peak value once again, amounting to USD 99.29 per barrel.
Negative corporate reports of a number of the USA companies, affected by the write-off of losses of American mortgage bonds and the douwnfall of net profits, aggravated the fears of investors in terms of the depth of the mortgage crisis and led to a decline of the world leading indices (see Table. 1).
Dynamics of international stock market indices Dynamics Dynamics since Data as of November 27 Ticker Value within the the year beginmonth(%)11 ning(%)MICEXINMICEX (Russia) 1791.89 -3.37% 13.99% DEXCF RTS (Russia) RTSI 2155.38 -1.77% 19.83% Dow Jones Industrial (USA) Average DJI 12958.44 -6.14% 3.97% (USA (USA) (USA) NASDAQ Composite (USA) NASD 2580.80 -7.97% 6.85% S&P 500 (USA) SPX 1428.23 -6.97% 0.70% FTSE 100 (UK) FTSE 6140.70 -7.82% -1.29% DAX-30 (Germany) DAX 7531.35 -5.26% 14.16% CAC-40 (France) CAC 5434.17 -6.22% -1.94% Swiss Market (Switzerland) SSWI 8431.10 -5.93% -4.04% Nikkei-225 (Japan) NIKKEI 15222.85 -7.77% -11.63% Bovespa (Brasil) BUSP 59431.50 -7.54% 33.63% IPC (Mexico) IPC 28124.65 -12.48% 6.34% IPSA (Chile) IPSA 3056.86 -12.57% 13.50% Straits Times (Singapore) STI 3372.64 -10.58% 12.95% Seoul Composite (South Korea) KS11 1859.79 -8.30% 29.65% ISE National-100 (Turky) XU100 51452.32 -8.85% 31.53% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free EMF 1187.93 -9.42% 30.15% Index Versus index indicator valid on September 27, 2006.
Versus index indicator valid on September 27, 2006.
Dynamics of the main USA and Russian stock indexes (in % to the date 01.09.2006) 150,00% Dow Jones Industrial Average 140,00% NASDAQ Composite The MICEX Index 130,00% The RTS Index 120,00% 110,00% 100,00% 90,00% 80,00% Corporate News ОАО «LUKOIL» During 9 months of 2007 the total hydrocarbons production volume of LUKOIL group of companies (upstream volume of subsidiaries and the share extraction, carried out by affiliated organizations) amounted to 2.18 million barrels per day, what is 43 thousand barrels per day higher than the production of the same period of 2006.
Average daily production volume of “LUKOIL: group has reached 1 967 thousand barrels per day, i.e., 2.3 per cent over the level of the first nine months of 2006. The gross oil production of “LUKOIL” group was 72.7 mln tons. Herewith, subsidiaries' production input made 70.8 mln tons, what exceeds the result of the nine months of 2006 by 3.5 %. The output of natural gas made 9.95 bln m3, what is by 0.4 per cent less than the level of the nine months of 2006.
The productions rates were negatively affected at the end of April by the sale of the company 50 per cent share to Caspian Investments (former Nelson Resources), engaged in hydrocarbons exploration and extraction in Kazakhstan territory, as well as Gazprom decision to restrict acceptance of natural gas.
The volume of oil processing, performed by national refineries, has grown by 9.5 per cent and reached 31.51 mln tons due to global upgrading and extension of OAO “LUKOIL” refinery capacities, as well as by a high profit margin in the Russian oil refinery industry.
Despite the temporary decrease in refinery volumes, caused by the planned reconstruction of Burgas refinery, in general, the total volume of production at the national and overseas refineries was practically the same within the nine-month period and accounted to 7.13 million tonns. The total volume of oil refining of "Lukoil" group at national and overseas enterprises amounted to 38.64 million tonns., which exceeds the indicator of the nine months of 2006 by 7.6 per cent.
ОАО «Mosenergo» In accordance with OAO "Mosenergo" performance results for the 9 months of 2007, approved in November, the company has produced 44 billion 746.6 million kWh of electric power, as compared with the estimated earlier level of 45 billion 958 million kWh. The output of heat energy of electric power stations made 43 million 760 thousand Gcal. Incomplete utilization of OAO "Mosenergo" capacities is explained by abnormally warm weather in the first quarter of the year.
01.09.19.09.05.10.23.10.09.11.27.11.220.127.116.11.18.01.05.02.21.02.09.03.27.03.12.04.28.04.15.05.31.05.15.06.03.07.19.07.06.08.22.08.07.09.25.09.18.104.22.168.14.11.OAO "Mosenergo" net sales profit from products and services has accounted to RUR 53 bln 164 mln before VAT, having exceeded the planned level by RUR 2 bln 849 mln (+1.4 per cent). Net sales proceeds made RUR 785 mln against planned amount of RUR 817 mln. OAO "Mosenergo" net losses, provoked by seasonal factors, have accounted to RUR 1 bln 265 mln (as compared with the estimated level of RUR 1 bln 510 mln).
Fuel oil reserve at the electric power stations made 427. 4 thousand tons, which exceeds the planned level by 17.4 thousand tons (+4.3 per cent). Coal stock amounts to 654.5 thousand tones, with an access of 94.thousand tones versus the planned amount (+16.9 per cent).
According to the investment program project, in 2008 OAO "Mosenergo" will allocate RUR 26 bln mln for construction of the new power generating capacities, RUR 4 bln 856 mln for renovation and upgrading thereof, RUR 2 bln 494 mln for production, environmental and fire safety enhancement measures.
GMK “Norilsk Nickel” As per results of 2006, ОАО GMK “Norilsk Nickel” was included in the rating list of the top leaders in terms of social and environmental requirements compliance, compiled by Independent Environmental Rating Agency (NERA) in collaboration with Greenpeace, Russia. Due to the high standards of anti-pollution efficiency and relevant reporting transparency, the Company shares are enrolled in the investment portfolio of environmental protection Fund index NERAX-Eco-2. According to Jacques Rosenberg, GMK Deputy Director General, Company enrollment in the Environmental Protection Fund index can be regarded as acknowledgement of its management efforts, addressed at minimizing of industrial pollution.
Portfolio of the Environmental Protection Fund index NERAX-Eco-2 includes ten Russian companies, leaders in terms of environmental protection development. Herewith, transparency of environmental reporting is the necessary condition for enclosure in the top ten leaders list. Enrollment of a company shares in the “index portfolio” of the leaders in terms of environmental protection efficiency and control over industrial pollution allows to keep track of quotations volatility of environmentally compliant businesses even in case of diversified prices within the portfolio.
ОАО RAO «UES of Russia» According to Standard & Poor`s research, RAO «UES of Russia» took the fifth place in the rating of the most transparent companies in terms of information. Last year RAO «UES of Russia» had only the 33rd place in the similar rating. Herewith, the results of research demonstrated that other Russian companies transparency index remained at the same level.
It is noted in Standard & Poor`s survey, that explicit upgrading of the energy Company transparency is basically explained by an intention to attract a wide range of minority shareholders to the second (completion) stage of the Company restructuring. Moreover, RAO «UES of Russia» makes steps to further enhancement of information transparency of its subsidiaries, OGC and TGC among them. Currently those companies are offering additional issues of their shares to the national and overseas strategic investors to attract assets for projects implementation in the framework of the five-year electric power industry development Program.
ОАО «Rostelecom» ОАО «Rostelecom» net profit for the first nine months of 2007 (as per RAS) has accounted to RUR 46,541.4 mln, having grown by 6.4 per cent as compared with the relevant period of 2006. EBITDA was increased by 21.8 per cent, up to RUR 11,044.7 mln versus the relevant period of 2006, cost-efficiency as per EBITDA made 23.7 per cent. According to the results of the first nine months of the year, ОАО «Rostelecom» net revenue was increased by 76.7 per cent and made RUR 8,844.8 mln as compared with RUR 5,004.6 mln within the first nine months of 2006.
ОАО «Tatneft» According to ОАО «Tatneft» financial reporting for the first nine months of 2007, the volume of extracted oil made over 19.4 mln tons, which exceeded the level of the relevant period of preceding year by 1.per cent. 270 new well-sites were launched in production operation. Their average flow rate has grown by per cent as compared with the relevant period of preceding year. Production tests are continued on upstream works of Ashalchinsk deposit of heavy crude and coal tar. Since the beginning of the works, 4.2 thousand tons of oil have been extracted from two lateral wells with the help of local vapor drainage technique. ОАО «Tatneft» net profit from dispatched products has accounted to nearly RUR 143 bln and increased versus the relevant period of preceding year by 1.6 per cent. As per the year results, the balance-sheet profit of ОАО «Tatneft» accounts to RUR 46 bln. Approximately RUR 10 bln were invested in the basic business activity, 26 per cent higher than the level of preceding year.
According to the information on ОАО «Tatneft» on its resource base and prospects of its development through November 2007, there are 79 licenses for exploration and development works in possession of the Company. Outside Russia, ОАО «Tatneft» performs exploration works in the five licensed sites in Lithuania and Syria. As per the estimates of “Miller and Lenz” auditing company, ОАО «Tatneft» proved reserves amount to 830 mln tons of oil. Two wells were discovered within 2007, including Chernozersk (Tatarstan Republic), category С1+С2, with the capacity over 1.1 mln tones and daily flow rate over 9 tones, as well as Tibeveysk well (Nenetsk Autonomous Region), С1+С2 category with the tentative capacity of 8 mln tones and average daily pure oil flow rate of 106 cubic meters (with 7-mm flow choke).
Real Economy Sector: trends and factors O. Izryadnova Over January-October of the current year the increase of investments in fixed assets was equal to 20.9% and caused the growth of workload in construction by 23.2% and manufacturing industries output by 9.8%.
In January-October of the current year acceleration of inflation rate up to 9.3% as compared with 7.5% in the preceding year is observed. The formation of the trend is accounted for by the sharp increase in prices for foodstuffs under the influence of change in the situation at the world market of foodstuffs and reserved development of domestic production. According to the IET forecast, expected inflation rates are in the range of 11.2-11.8%.
In January-October of the current year acceleration of development rates was observed for nearly all kinds of economic activities. Main factors of economic growth in 2007 were still the expansion of investment, consumer and external demand.
Structural shifts in production were determined by anticipating growth of workload in construction as compared with the dynamics of the industrial production. Volume of the workload fulfilled in construction increasing by 23.2% against 13.2% in January-October 2006 growth of industrial production was equal to 6.5%, exceeding b 2.2 p.p. the figure of the previous year. Acceleration of industrial growth was accounted for by the increase in manufacturing enterprises production by 9.8% against 4.7% in January-October against the background of sustention of the rates of minerals extraction at the level of 102.1%. the manner of the development of manufacturing industry was determined by the anticipating growth of machine-building enterprises, construction materials the volume of consumer goods growth being reserved. Machinery and equipment production over January-October 2007 increased by 21.4%, electric, electronic and optic equipment production – by 13.1%, transport vehicles and equipment production – by 6.3%. Anticipating growth of machine-building is connected both with the expansion of investment demand for machinery and equipment and the increase of passenger cars and household appliances output.
Despite the fact that acceleration of foodstuffs production by 1.2 p.p. as compared with the previous year is observed in the current year, the influence of domestic production on the formation of resources of domestic market is becoming weaker. This is connected in particular with the narrowing of raw materials base. The dynamics of agriculture in 2007 was characterized by more reserved rates than last year. Over JanuaryOctober 2007 increase in agriculture production was equal to 2.0% as compared with 2.6% in the corresponding period of 2006.
Over January-October the volume of investments in the fixed assets increased by 20.9% as compared with 12.9% last year and was equal to RUR 4619.7 bln. It should be noted that the system of governmental measures aimed at reduction of customs duties for import equipment, improvement of amortization policy, possibility to compensate VAT and refund it as the construction sights are put into commission.
In 2007 the trend for anticipating growth of internal demand as compared with external demand sustained.
Increase in export in monetary terms was equal to 10.4% in January-September and was 18.2% lower than the figure of the previous year, physical volumes of export slowing down to 3.4% as compared with 6.4%.
More than 2/3 of the growth of export monetary volume is accounted for by high prices for fuel and energy resources, metal and metal ores at the world market as well as 1/3 increase in physical volumes.
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