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Tsymbal V., Kardashevskii N. Voenno - ekonomicheskii analiz nakopitelno ipotechnoi sistemy obespecheniia voennosluzhashchikh zhiliom. (Military and economic analysis of the accumulative mortgage system for providing military personnel with housing.) // Ekonomiko politicheskaia situatsia v Rossii [The economic and political situation in Russia). 2006. May. P. 4047.

16 14 5 12 5 600 5 10 590 8 6 8 411 8 4 7 2 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 M In system Im Ib Idle turnover Fig. 1. Structure of distribution of the aggregate contributions to the AMS, incomes on investments and additional funds allocated to providing housing for those who have withdrawn early from the system, million roubles As can be seen from Fig. 1, a rather large amount of money (approximately 37.5% of the total accumulated funds) will be returned to the budget without providing the retired military personnel with any benefits in the form of housing but simultaneously increasing the benefits being received by the other participants in the AMS. To those, 56.4% of the total will be left. Some money, naturally, will be retained by the mortgage banks and asset managers - approximately 6% of the total.

Now let us see what exactly has changed for the military personnel who joined the AMS in and 2006 as a result of no growth in their accumulated funds during the first two years of participating in the AMS. Below, in Fig. 2, the changed financial flows are shown also as progressive total.

16 14 12 000 5 5 459 5 10 590 8 6 8 346 8 4 7 2 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 M In system Im Ib Idle turnover Fig. 2. Structure of distribution of the aggregate contributions to the AMS, incomes on investments and additional funds allocated to providing housing for those who have withdrawn early from the system, in absence of any income on investments in 2005 and 2006, million roubles As shown by this graph, all the aggregate financial flows decreased in their volume. The most essential part will also be diminished the monies earmarked for providing military personnel with housing. And these losses (a total of 65 million roubles), while being modest as compared to the total values, will be of great importance for those military for whom they are earmarked.

Now let us assume that no improvement in the management of the AMS accumulated funds will occur in later years, that the system is not going to start working, after all. The situation will be deteriorating still further. The results of such a model are shown in Fig. 3.

14 12 5 5 5 10 8 590 6 4 7 187 7 6 2 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 M In system Im Ib Idle turnover Fig. 3. Structure of distribution of the aggregate contributions to the AMS and cash flows, in absence of any income on investments, million roubles As can be seen, in the event of a complete absence of any investment income, the total money equivalent of the housing to be provided to military personnel will be reduced by almost 1.2 billion roubles.

The answer to the question as to what is actually being happening to the monies transferred to the AMS, which are being so inefficiently managed (from the point of view of military personnel), is actually beyond the sphere of our analysis. It can only be stated that the fact of their unlawful use is beyond any doubt.

Is anything at all being undertaken in order to outweigh the negative effect of the AMS initial operation At a recent meeting of the president with the Government, Minister of Defense Sergei Ivanov suggested that the contributions to the AMS should be indexed not only by the rate of inflation, but also by the growth of housing prices. According to him, the indexation will be carried out by applying normal prices, and without any increase in total budget expenditure27. The second part of this sentence is quite enigmatic, because any increase in the accumulated funds per participant will mean that the number of funds per participant will have to be diminished. Does this mean that the problem of providing military personnel with housing through the AMS will not be solved as planned However, the most important point in terms of the purposes of out analysis is that something else can also be stated. The fact that such a problem did emerge has been, indeed, acknowledged by the top officials, and they are taking some steps in order to fund a solution. It is expected that in 2007 the annual contribution per one military serviceman will amount to approximately 6570 thousand roubles, in the 2006 prices.

Considering the fact that, as shown by the results of the year 2005, the rate of inflation was approximately 11 %, while in 2006 it is expected to be 10%, we can conclude that the real growth in aggregate contributions, as a result of the measures being implemented, will amount to approximately 54 %, as compared to the aggregate contributions in 2005.

However, as the housing prices have nearly doubled, this growth in contributions can by no means be estimated as sufficient. The seemingly simple course of action by merely increasing the amount of annual contributions should be recognized as inefficient in terms of economics.

Only the complex course can result in positive effect for the State and society that of correct and profitable investment of the accumulated funds. Thus, the management of the funded part of pension in the RF Pension Fund by the Bank of Foreign Trade resulted, in three years, in a yield of 25 %, RIA novosti of 23 October 2006.

which, nevertheless, has been recognized as insufficient, because private asset managers have achieved better results (up to 60 %). This, in its turn, resulted in the accumulated funds having been flowing from the state-owned Pension Fund to private funds, while, on the other hand, the Bank of Foreign Trade have begun to search for new ways to increase its capital28. This is a normal situation produced by competition.

Regretfully, the proposal of the IET that the AMS created for military personnel should be merged with the state-owned Pension Fund was rejected. The monies pooled into the AMS were placed under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defense. As for any opportunities for military personnel to transfer their personal accumulated funds to other funds, they are, as could be expected, nonexistent.

The solution to this problem, therefore, is yet to be found.

N. Kardashevskii The issues considered at the RF Governments meetings on 2, 16 and 23 November 2006.

The issues considered at the RF Governments meetings that took place on 2, 16, and 23 November were as follows: a report of the RF Ministry of Transport concerning the progress of railroad transport reform, a draft Federal Law On the Federal Budget for the Year 2006; the realization of the RF Presidents messages to the RF Federal Assembly, the improvement of VAT administration; the changes to be introduced in the Regulations regarding the Ministry of Finance of Russia and the Federal Treasury, the Federal Aviation Service of Russia (FAS), and the Federal Tariffs Service (FTS) of Russia; and a number of other issues.

*** At the RF Governments meeting on 2 November, RF Minister of Transport Levitin presented a report29 concerning the intermediate results of the third and final stage of railroad transport reform formulated in the Program of Structural Reform approved by the RF Governments Decree of 18 May 2001, No 384, and also the plans of reform for the year 2007.

It was pointed out in the report that, in general, in the year 2006 there were no considerable disruptions in the work of railroad transport, the volume of transported cargo was increased, and the quality of services provided by railroad transport organizations was upgraded. There was observed a considerable growth in the volume of cargo transportation and passenger traffic.

In the year 2006, the sphere of normative regulation was augmented by the adoption of a number of decrees and one regulation of the RF Government, which were directly concerned with railroad transport reform.Another area of work in the year 2006 was the activity in the sphere of creating subsidiary and related companies of the open joint stock company RZhD (Russian Railroads). Thus, two subsidiary companies were established: the open joint stock company TransKonteiner and the open joint stock company Refservice, engaged in the provision of services in the sphere of specialized cargo transportation. According to the idea of transport reform, their role at the initial stage is that of rolling stock operators. Also, as things now stand, 10 commuter passenger companies have already been created conjointly with the subjects of the Russian Federation.

Izvestiia of 24 October 2006.

The report of RF Transport Minister Igor Levitin on railroad transport reform presented at the Governments meeting on 2 November 2006 http://www.mintrans.ru/pressa/Levitin_061102.htm The plan of measures for the years 2006 2010, aimed at the realization of the railroad structural reforms program, as authorized by the RF Governments Decree of 10 August 2006, No 1094-r, of the year 2006; the Regulation concerning the licensing of some types of activity on railroad transport, as approved by the Decree of the Russian Government of 15 March 2006, No 134; and the Procedure for the usage of land plots in federal ownership, which are granted to the open joint stock company Russian Railroads, authorized by the Decree of the RF Government of 29 April 2006. Also, the Decree of the RF Government of 27 June 2006, No 394, introduced changes into the list of property objects owned by the open joint stock company Russian Railroads and included in its charter capital, and are not subject to be transferred on lease, or to be granted for use without compensation, or to be transferred in trust or as a pledge, etc.

Also considered at this meeting of the RF Government was a draft Federal Law On the Introduction of Alterations in the Federal Law On the Federal Budget for the Year 2006. These alterations have been designed to increase both the revenue and the expenditure of the 2006 Federal Budget, and, correspondingly, to make more specic the characteristics of the 2006 federal budget pertaining to the sources of revenues and the items of expenditure.

At the RF Governments meeting on 2 November, the realization of the major provisions of the RF Presidents message to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation for the year 2006 and of the Program of the socio economic development of the Russian Federation in the medium term perspective (2006 2008) was considered, as well as the realization, by the federal executive authorities, of the assignments given by the President of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Russian Federation.

According to the press release concerning the RF Governments meeting on 2 November 2006, by Decree of the RF Government of 7 June, No 838-r, a master plan was approved for the implementation of the major provisions of the RF Presidents message to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation for the Year 2006 (hereinafter the master plan)31.

The master plan comprises 17 measures subdivided into 83 points, including 7 measures envisaged by other acts of the RF Government and by an assignment given by the President of the Russian Federation, all of them dealing with the implementation of the RF Governments plan of action with regard to the realization, in the year 2006, of the provisions of the Program of the socio economic development of the Russian Federation in the medium term perspective (2006 2008), the drafting of the normative legal acts necessary for the implementation of the provisions contained in the UN Convention against Corruption and in the Council of Europes Convention on Criminal Responsibility for Corruption. Also considered at this meeting of the RF Government was the progress achieved in the implementation of 11 of the 17 measures included in the master plan: the struggle against corruption; the development of competition; the improvement of the competitiveness of hi-tech industries and their development; steps to enhance the efficiency of use of the power industrys potential; the development of transport and communications, the development of the aviation and ship building industries; outer space exploration; the securing of the convertibility of the rouble and the development of stock-exchange mechanisms of trade; the formation of a market of affordable housing; the improvement of the efficiency of budget expenditures and the reforming of interbudgetary relations;

and the provision of solution to the existing demographic problems.

At the RF Governments meeting on 16 November, the alterations in the Regulation on the Federal Tariffs Service were considered, introduced in accordance with the RF Governments Decree On Improving the Procedure for the Functioning of the Wholesale Electric Energy (Power) Market, which authorized a new version of the Wholesale Electric Energy (Power) Market Regulations for the Period of Transition and the RF Governments Decree On Authorizing the Regulations Concerning the Functioning of Retail Electric Energy Markets for the Transition Period of Reforming Electric Power Engineering (hereinafter the Transition Period Regulations Concerning Retail Electric Energy Markets). The alterations are concerned with the obligation, on the part of the Federal Tariffs Service, to keep an information register of the guaranteeing suppliers and the spheres of their activity.

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