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considering the deflator index making up 140.5% Table 1 Change in dynamics of consumption of GDP across its components, as % to the prior year 1998. 1999. 2000 GDP -4,9 5,4 9,0 5, Spending on final consumption by -1,5 -2,4 7,4 6, households -2,4 -4,4 9,3 8, Public institutions 0,6 3,0 1,4 -1, Gross savings -28,7 8,5 31,9 17, Accumulation of capital assets -11,2 2,4 15,0 6, Чистый экспорт 111,0 72,3 -6,2 -10,export -0,3 9,4 8,7 2,import -11,0 -15,6 12,7 8,Source; the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the Customs Statistics of Foreign Trade of RF The rise in revenues in the economy has had a level of business activity in Russian economy substantial impact on proportions of final growing, the rise in investment demand secured consumption in GDP. It was gross accumulation of some of the increment in physical volume of capital assets that showed the highest growth rate GDP.
compared with other noted components. With the The growth potential accumulated via increase of While analyzing the stability of the national business’s income and vigorous investment activity economy’s state, one should stress that the allowed resolution of the earlier accumulated social correlation of external factors influencing problems. One can attribute almost 3/5 of the production rise over 2000 and 2001 appeared increment in GDP in 2001 to the rise in expenditure different. Given that in 2000 it was the price rise for on final consumption. In 2001, with rather a regular energy sources and non-ferrous metals that formed trend to rise in salaries and wages, and pensions, the most important factor for production growth, in the population’s real incomes grew by 5.9%. The 2001 the effect of external factors was gradually share of spending on final consumption grew by 3.7 weakening. Since 2000 the physical volume of per cent points vs. 2000, and this is fully related to imports has regain its advanced dynamics against the advanced rise in households’ spending. It dynamics of exports and GDP. The slowdown of should be emphasized that the analysis of the the growth rate in physical volume of exports by national economy’s development over the past late 2001 is explained by the situation in the world decade shows that the volume of households’ markets for minerals, while an intense rise in spending on final consumption has reached the imports over 2001 was related to purely domestic level of the pre-reform 1991. problems.
Fig. Change in dynamics of physical volume of exports, imports and domestic demand between 1998 through 2001, as % to the respective quarter of the prior year.
1998/I II III IV 1999/I II III IV 2000/I II III IV 2001/I II III IV ---Domestic demand Exports Imports The analysis of the trade sector’s development the implementation of a consistent importallows arguing that the national economy has not substitution policy and diversification of export created new niches for the domestic products in the flows. Since early 2000 the structure of commodity world and domestic markets. The expansion of resources of consumer market and the market for domestic demand between 2000 through 2001 material and technical products has demonstrated generated by the export-oriented sectors was the intensification of the trend to growth in the ensured by the inertia-driven rise in output in rather share of imports. In addition, the latter was also a narrow segment of sectors. encouraged by a real appreciation of the Rb. As a As economic growth mostly was oriented to result, according to the RF Ministry for Economic increase in the rate of utilization and introduction development and trade, in 2001 next exports into production of spare production capacities, it amounted to 89.1% of the prior year’s level. It is a formed one of the reasons for low competitiveness real alarm bell for the Russian economy, because of domestic products. The absence of substantial the contraction in net exports, as role, leads to shifts in regard to placement of new production slowdown in economic growth pace.
capacities into operation practically did not allow The IET Industrial Survey: February Similar to February 2001, in February this year in such investment, in early 2992 enterprises clearly the national industrial sector experienced renewal reported decrease in their purchases of both of production growth, which has not been back- domestic and foreign equipment, while the upped by a rise in sales as yet. All kinds of demand contraction in purchases of the former proved to be continue to fall, which led to growth in excessive more intense than the latter (-12% v. –3%). More stock of finished goods, drop in profits and accurate computations (at microlevel) show that the purchases of equipment. Interestingly, the rise in purchases of import equipment with a contraction of purchases of domestic equipment simultaneous decrease of purchases of domestic proved to be mote intense than those of import one. equipment took place at 11% of enterprises, while For the first time since the 1st quarter 2001 the reverse situation was reported by 4% of enterprises have shared pessimistic mood with enterprises.
regard to their investment plans. The forecasts of change in output remained In February 2002 the sales of industrial products highly optimistic. All the sectors but electricity for cash continued to decline, though the decline (due to seasonality) envisage rise in their output rate was lower than in January. The respective over the forthcoming months. It is the construction balance grew by 13 points over the month, however industry, chemicals and petrochemicals, and remained negative ie. reports on decrease in sales machine building that reported the most optimistic outrun those on their growth. The decline in expectations. It was the prior actual changes in demand was noted in all the sectors, while it was effective demand that appeared the factor most intense in the sectors for electricity and determining shaping of enterprises’ production metallurgy. The non-cash kinds of demand (barter, plans over recent years. The enterprises are keen to promissory notes, and off-sets) lowered at a lower extrapolate actual cash sales trends to their next rate. So, for the third month in line the surveys production plans without account of changes in the registered decline in all kinds of demand in the volume of their barter, promissory note and off-set national industrial sector. deals as well as previous changes of output itself. It Despite the continuous contraction in the volume means that the “planning from the reached level” of sales, last February showed production growth. has gone to the past.
After the January slump (the balance fell as low as For the first time since the 1st quarter 2001 (the –21%), the intensity of change in output became beginning of monitoring of the respective index) positive once again (+8%). Rise in output was enterprises’ investment plans showed the registered in all the sectors, except the one for prevalence of pessimism. Given that last year’s electricity and the light industry. survey registered just a decline in optimism (from In February the Russian industry once again +17 to +6%), in the 1st quarter 2002 enterprises experienced excessive stocks of finished products. mostly reported their plans to lower their purchases After some decline of the index in January, which of both domestic and foreign equipment rather than could be attributed to hopes for an intense rise in their plans to increase such purchases ( the balances demand between February through April, in the of responses were –5% and –3%, respectively).
conditions of the continuous contraction in all kinds Once again, the correlation was not in favor of the of demand and the beginning of production growth domestic investment sectors. At the same time enterprises had to adjust their estimates. Their stock microcomputations on vertex matrix of reports accounts for the same amount as in December showed a rough parity of enterprises’ plans The 2001, while it was the forestry complex and food supplanting of purchases of domestic equipment sector that reported shortages with regard to their with foreign one in the 2nd quarter will be stock. counterbalanced with a reverse process. However, The negative trends that manifested themselves the analysis of change in actual purchases in the 1st clearly in the national industrial complex have quarter and plans of their changes in the 2nd quarter determined decrease in real profits. According to once again are in favor of foreign equipment. After enterprises’ estimates, in February this index was cutting down their purchases of domestic falling in all the sectors, and most intensively – in equipment in the 1st quarter 2002, over 20% of the food sector and chemicals and petrochemicals. enterprises intend to increase their purchases of The analogous situation is noted with regard with import equipment in the 2nd quarter, while the purchases of machinery and equipment. Given that reverse intents are reported by 9% of enterprises.
last year one noted prevalence of reports of growth So, the balance clearly is not in favor of import non-cash kinds of demand allow a more accurate substitution. picture of the correlation between sales of domestic According to Russian enterprises’ estimates, in and import products. As long as various kinds of the 4th quarter 2001 they noted a fall in volumes of demand are concerned, we calculated the index of sales of both domestic and import goods on their substitution for non-cash kinds of demand with markets. The most drastic fall in the volume of effective one. Tow new questions in out sales of Russian goods was noted on the sales questionnaires allow to estimate import substitution markets of enterprises of the non-ferrous itself in an analogous way. The computations metallurgy and construction. It was only the testify that in the 4th quarter the process of import forestry, food industry and machine engineering substitution was still there across the industrial that reported rise in sales of domestic products. The sector on the whole. Over 12% of enterprises volume of sales of import products on the market reported that on their sales markets sales of import for domestic producers’ sales was falling at a goods decreased or remained unchanged under the slower rate, with the most intense fall in sales of rise in sales of domestic products, or they remained import products noted by chemical and unchanged under the fall in sales of import goods.
petrochemical companies accounted for –11%. As The substitution rate for domestic goods with well, the contraction of the volume of sales of import accounted for 9%. So, the overall balance import products took place on the markets for (9-12=-3) was in favor of domestic producer. Let us metallurgical and food products, while other sectors note that at this point we considered both cases of a mostly reported the prevalence of rise in sales of direct substitution for one producers by other ones import goods. According to heads of Russian and softer variants of rise in sales by a general enterprises, it is the light industry that experienced expansion of demand. In the latter case sales of one the most intense of increase in the volume of sales group of producers were growing against the of import products (+8%). maintenance of other group’s sales.
S. Tsoukhlo The calculation indicators analogous to those we us to estimate interaction between effective and Foreign trade In December 2001 Russian exports fell by 3% and petroleum derivatives reached the bottom over compared with the prior months, whole if compared the year, while the market for non-ferrous metals with the respective period of the prior year the fall showed some renewal of activity. In late 2001 main appeared dramatic - 20.2%, which became the most producers of non-ferrous metals decided to intense decline over the past 35 months. In decrease their output, and the prices for aluminum, December 2001 exports accounted for USD 103.04 copper and nickel started to rise.
bln. vs. 105.57 reported in December 2000. Russian import rises at a stable pace and reflects In December 2001 imports made up USD 5.61 the growth in the population’s real incomes and bln. vs. 5.07 bln. reported in November and 4.89 strengthening of a real exchange rate of the Rb., and bln.- in December 2000. The import value noted in the volume of imports practically has already December 2001 appeared maximal since June 1998 reached the pre-default level. Most likely, the trend (at that time, the respective index made up USD 5.7 to growth in import would still be in place over the bln.). By results of 2001 import accounted for USD hole 2002, though the rate of this growth would drop 53.38 bln. vs. 43.86 bln. in 2000. due to a slowdown of the process of strengthening of In December 2001 Russia’s trade balance was the national currency’s real exchange rate.
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