rubles/euro 03.07.13.07.25.07.04.08.16.08.28.08.07.09.19.09.29.09.11.10.23.10.02.11.220.127.116.11.07.12.20.12.04.01.17.01.29.01.08.02.20.02.October November December January February* overnight 24.76% 19.80% 24.66% 29.09% 12% 1 week 19.03% 16.24% 23.97% 8.24% 17% official exchange rate of ruble per US dollar 29.70 29.93 30.14 30.6850 30.by the end of the month official exchange rate of ruble per Euro by 26.87 26.52 26.617 26.5456 26.the end of the month average annualized exchange rate of ruble 1.05% 0.77% 0.70% 1.81% 0.83% per US dollar growth average annualized exchange rate of ruble 0.04% -1.30% 0.37% -0.27% 0.63% per euro growth volume of trading at the stock market in the 279.0 394.2 277.0 419.7 247.RTS for the month (millions of USD) the value of the RTS Index by the end of 204.04 226.49 260.05 287.53 290.the month growth in the RTS Index (% a month) 13.20% 11.00% 14.82% 10.57% 1.12% * Estimates S. Drobyshevsky, D. Skripkin Investment in the real sector It is an intense rise in investment demand that In 2001 the volume of investment in capital becomes a notable feature of the national assets by means of all the sources of financing economy’s development. During past years one accounted for Rb. 1,599.5 bln., or at 8.7% more noted a steady trend to advanced growth in than in the prior year. The renewal of investment investment in capital assets vs. dynamics of GDP activity in 2001 was accompanied with the rise in and output of basic sectors of the economy. In 2991 demand for construction services and capital goods.
the share of investment in GDP grew up to 17.7% When compared with 2000 the volume of works vs. 16.8% reported over the prior year. This trend accomplished by construction companies grew by was encouraged by expanding domestic demand 9.9%, increment in gross output in the machine generated by the growth in enterprises’ own and engineering sector rose by 7.2% and that in the borrowed capital for investment purposes and the industry of construction materials – by 5.5%. Rise slowdown in producer prices in the industrial and in investment in capital assets was registered in all construction sector. the federal Super-regions, but Central one.
Fig. Dynamics of investment in capital assets across federal Super-regions between 1999 through 2001, as % to the prior year 1999 2000 Ural Volga central Russia NorthSiberian Western Southern Far-Eastern The investment surge of 2000-2001 was services provided by the noted sectors forms an structural by its essence and appeared determined indicator of growth economic potential.
by an aggregate impact of factors of changes in Furthermore in this sector the investment policy is sectoral, technological and reproduction shifts in aimed mostly at solving perspective problems. The the national economy. infrastructure formed in the course of reforms The reallocation of investment flows was taking proved to be fully engaged by market in the place along with the rise in the share of conditions of economic growth.
infrastructure sectors and the growth in demand for Fig. Change in the structure of investment across sectors of the economy between 1998 through 2001, as % over the respective period Housing Trade Communication Transport Construction Agriculture Industry -6,0 -4,0 -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,1998 - 2000 2000- While evaluating the state of and prospects for of which 34.8% on oil output. In 2001, there were the national economy’s development, one should 4,203 oil wells put into operation which made up a take into account the fact that the surge of 18.6% increase compared with the prior year. In investment activity to a considerable extent should addition, the placement into operation of earlier idle be attributed to market situation. Against the wells allowed an additional output accounting for background of changing priorities the investment 5.7 mln.t. of oil, or 23.5% of the overall increment structure mutated influenced by the growing in the Russian oil output. When compared with demand on the part of the fuel and energy and 2000, the share of investment in the oil-refining metallurgical complexes. Changes in the structure industry grew by 2.2 per cent points. However, the of output in the sector for machine engineering proportion of allocation of investment between oilwere determined primarily by the growth in extracting and oil refining sub0sectors have been demand on the part of oil sub-sectors, transport, and changing in favor of the former ones. The more communication. It was these sectors that reported moderate dynamics of investment in the oil - the highest growth rates in investment in production refining sector this year has led to stavilization of over 2001. the proportional weight of technologies of an As concerns the structure of investment in the intense oil refinery at the level of 2000.
industrial sector, 53.3% falls on the fuel complex, Fig. Change in the structure of investment across industrial sub-sectors over 1998 to 2001, as % over the respective period.
Food Light Construction materials Forestry Machine building Chemicals Non-ferrous metallurgy Ferrous metallurgy Fuel Electricity -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,1998 - 2000 2000-The investment demand of 200-01 by its essence available funds in the national economy, thus was fully generated by the oil industry, whose share increasing the gap between themselves and the in the overall volume of investment in the industrial major part of the economy. Low investment activity sector accounted up to 30%. Though exporters in the processing sub-sectors have remained one of have increased their investment expenditure on the factors inhibiting economic growth rates.
O. Izryadnova development of their profile production, however, they still are very cautious to invest the rest of their Loan disbursement to the real sector in It was a relative rise in loan disbursement to the changes (3.0% as of early 2001 v. 2.9% as of early non-banking sector (NBS) that appeared the most December). If we exclude Sberbank and banks run notable positive shift in the trends of the national by ARKO, the trend to growth in the share of loans banking system’s development over 2001. The to NBS in assets would still be there – it accounted growth in aggregate credit portfolio in constant for 36.8% as of early 2001 and 42.7% as of early prices accounted for 25.4 % over the 11 months of December (the growth rate accounting for 16%), last year. That was less than in 2000 - 34.6%, while the share of outstanding loans in their overall however in 2001 the rise in loans disbursement to amount disbursed to NBS accounted for 2.1% both the real sector was taking place at a rate outrunning as of early 2001 and early December 2001.
the overall growth in banks’ assets. As a result, the It is the rise in the share of Rb.-denominated share of loans disbursed among NBS grew from loans which still appear a characteristic feature of 40.8 as of early 2001 to 45.4% as of early the currency structure of the banks’ credit December (the growth rate accounted for 11%). At portfolios. Given that as of early 2001 their share in the same time so far analysts’ forecasts have not loans to NBS accounted for 64.5%, it reached justified, as the share of outstanding loans in banks’ 68.1% in December (exclusive of Sberbank and credit portfolios has not experienced any notable banks run by ARKO – 58.7 and 61.5%, respectively). At the same time changes in the Given that on the eve of the 1998 crisis the correlation between Rb.-denominated loans and overall volume of banks’ obligations towards nonthose denominated in foreign exchange were taking residents exceeded the volume of forexplace against the backdrop of a vigorous expansion denominated loans they disbursed among residentsof the both kinds of loan disbursement. Given that non-banks, these indexes became equal by late over 2000 the rise in crediting in forex equivalent 1999, while by late 2001 the banks’ forexnotably was lagging behind the growth in assets, denominated obligations towards non-residents over the 11 months of 2001 both indexes grew by accounted just for 70% of the volume of forex24%. While extending such loans, banks to a denominated loans to residents-non-banks. In greater extent had to focus on domestic enterprises’ it was the growth in deposits with fixed period and and private individuals’ resources (see Fig.1) primarily private individuals’ deposits that formed Fig.1 Russian banks’ loans to enterprises-residents the factors allowing the banking system to expand in forex equivalent and obligations to non-residents forex-denominated crediting. The amount of private individuals’ deposits grew by over 47% in USD USD bln.
equivalent over the noted 11 months.
1 As far as the time structure of the Russian banks’ aggregate credit portfolio is concerned, one could note a rise in the share of the most short-term loans at the expense of the fall in the share of loans extended for the term over 1 year. As it can be seen from the data of Table 1, such a trend formed primarily due to the decrease in the share of forexdenominated loans that banks extended for the term over 1 year. The provision of credits for the period under 3 months to a great extent expanded in the case of Rb.-denominated loans (the respective share of loans extended for the term under 3 months in the overall amount of Rb.-denominated loans grew As of the end of month from 21.7% to 24.5%). However, as long as the 1. loans to enterprises-residents structure of forex-denominated loans is concerned, 2. obligations to non-residents the share of short-term credits grew from 8.0 up to 10.1%.
Table 1.Time structure of loans to the non-banking sector* Type of loans Structure of loans to NBS, as в % 01.01.00 01.01.01 01.12.Loans to NBS for the term up to 90 days 17.8 16.9 20.Loans to NBS for the term between 90 to 180 days 10.8 15.7 15.Loans to NBS for the between 180 days and 1 year 33.2 34.4 35.Loans to NBS for the period over 1 year 38.2 33.0 29.Forex-denominated loans Loans to NBS for the term up to 90 days 9.5 8.0 10.Loans to NBS for the term between 90 to 180 days 9.0 8.4 11.Loans to NBS for the between 180 days and 1 year 25.1 28.1 30.Loans to NBS for the period over 1 year 56.3 55.4 47. Rb.-denominated loans Loans to NBS for the term up to 90 days 24.5 21.7 24.Loans to NBS for the term between 90 to 180 days 12.2 19.6 17.Loans to NBS for the between 180 days and 1 year 39.8 37.7 37.Loans to NBS for the period over 1 year 23.5 20.9 21.Non-outstanding loans without account of banks run by ARKO Calculated on the basis of the data of CBR and STIiK company The share of private individuals grew in the the volume of credits to private individuals over 6.structure of borrowers: given that in 2000 the share times over the 11 months 2001. At the same time of loans to private individuals was slightly over 5% the share of public enterprises fell notably (from of the overall amount of loans extended, by 8.1% as of January 1, 2001, to 5.7% as of December 2001 it grew up to 7.6% (see Table 2). December 1, 2001). It is most likely that this trend This was mostly thanks to Sberbank that increased should be regarded as a general result of 7,9,3,6,9,3,6,9,3,6,9,12,12,12.11,improvement of the state of public finance. In 2000, fall drastically, while in 2001 the same was noted the government authorities’ need in banking credits with regard to public enterprises.
Table 2. The structure of loans to NBS by counterparts Type of loan Structure of loans, as %* 01.01.00 01.01.01 01.12.Loans to budgets and extrabudgetary funds 5.8 1.7 1.Loans to enterprises 82.8 88.1 87. Including public 8.4 8.1 5. Non-governmental 74.4 80.0 81.Loans to enterprises-non-residents 6.1 5.0 4. Loans to private individuals 5.3 5.2 7.Note: exclusive of banks run by ARKO *including outstanding loans Calculated on the basis of the data of STIiK company The advanced rise in credits to the non-banking the share of capital on corresponding accounts with sector was accompanied by a relative decrease in CBR (from 5.9% as of early 2001 to 2.9% as of the share of capital placed with the banking sector. December 1). At the same time the share of funds The share of funds placed in the banking sector in placed with commercial banks experienced just assets slid from 35.8% to 31.8% (from 43 to 39%, insignificant changes – from 21.4% as of early if without regard to Sberbank) over the 11 months. 2001 to 20.7% as of early December.
L. Sycheva, L. Mikhailov, E. Timofeev Such a decline mostly took place due to decrease in The real sector: factors and trends In compliance with the Data Development and relative to the prices of 1999, the real increment in Presentation Procedures, the Goskomstat of RF has GDP accounts for 9.0% vs. earlier computed 8.3%.
completed preliminary estimate of the nation’s Proceeding from a new level of the base, the GDP for 2001 and specified the respective volume of Russia’s GDP in 2001 was estimated at indicators over 1999 and 2000. The adjustment of the level of Rb. 9,040.8 bln., which is substantially GDP indicators was held on the basis of enterprises greater than the indicators that formed the basis of and organizations’ annual reports, the account of the 2001 budget. The rising activity of the domestic the RF Ministry of Finance on execution of businesses allowed to assume that given other consolidated budget and the Balance of Payments conditions equal, in 2001 the growth in GDP should developed by the Bank of Russia. The 1999 GDP account for 103 to 104%. However, a dynamic changed by 0.2% relative to earlier available data, expansion of domestic demand ensured an which did not impact the estimate of its dynamics additional impulse to the growth in the national over the prior year. It was the data on 2000 that economy. In 2001 the share of domestic demand in became subject to specifications. The volume of GDP grew up to 86.7% vs. 79.6% noted over the GDP in 2000 accounted for Rb. 730.2, and prior year.
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