29 thousand deals worth a total of 5.7 billion Overall, hungry for important news, the oil roubles, 1149 thousand contracts (January Ц 3.85 market demonstrated the side trend within the range billion roubles, 23.8 thousand deals, 700.8 thousand of 19.5Ц21.5 $/bbl. In early February, the market contracts). The trade volume on futures grew by was restrained by an increase in the US oil reserves 48%, the number of deals Ц by 21.8%. On February and Kuwaits renewal ofits oil export in full. The 19 the maximum trade volume on futures was fixed price growth in the mid of the month was partly Ц 451.3 million roubles (93.6 thousand contracts), generated by expectations of a new US military on February 20 the number of deals on futures action against Iraq, which inevitably resulted in the exceeded 2 thousand for the time and reached 2195. cease of - the Iraqi oil export as well as in rumours The trade activity in FORTS on options doubled about reduction in the US oil reserves. As of in February and amounted to 707 deals (January Ц February 1, 2002, Iraq exported 13.5 million barrels 343 deals), the number of open interest tripled. a week, or 1.93 million barrels per day. In the very Overall in February, the market participants stroke beginning of March the OPEC General Secretary deals totalled 46 million roubles (9.3 thousand A. Rodrigez visited Moscow and met the Russian contracts)/ This was 3 times higher than in January officials, however, no final decisions on co(15 million roubles). On February 28 the open ordination of the Russian and the OPEC policies in interest on options reached 55.7 million roubles (on the oil market were made.
January 31 Ц 17.5 million roubles). The London Centre for Global Energy Research It was futures on RAO УUES RussiaТsФ stocks reported the situation in the world oil market was that enjoyed the greatest popularity in the term likely to normalise as early as in the second quarter market were. The respective share in the FORTS of 2002, provided that OPEC retain the current oil turnover made up to 80% (4.6 billion roubles), the production.
number of deals for the month Ц about 25 thousand.
Dynamics of Brent Oil in the USA (NYMEX) 01.03.01 30.04.01 21.06.01 16.08.01 11.10.01 07.12.01 14.02.FIGURE 6.
200% 190% 180% 170% 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq Composite 50% The RTS Index 40% 30% 01.03.01 24.04.01 17.06.01 10.08.01 03.10.01 26.11.01 19.01.Following the Fed, the central banks of economic Hence, the refinancing rate remained at the level of developed countries left their key interest rates 3.25% annualised.
unchanged. The Bank of England decided to not On Friday, February 22, the international rating change its refinancing rate, which is currently at 4.0%. agency Standard & Poor's reported the upgrade of the The last time the Bank of England reduced its key RussiaТs rating forecast from УstableФ to УpositiveФ.
interest, by 0.5% from 4.5% to 4.0%was on November One of the reasons for the forecast revision 8, 2001 when, The European Central Bank also undoubtedly was the RF Ministry of FinanceТs decided to leave the key euro interest rates unchanged. statement that the volume of debt payments in would be at $2.5 billion less than expected. The news dollars per barrel stimulated the rise of prices of the Russian Уblue 11 to February 15). That was why the RTS Index did chipsФ. In one hour after the news was broken, the not responded to the rise in oil prices.
prices surged by 1-3% along with a rise in trade УSurgutneftegasФ informed that the annual activity. We should note that presently the Russian shareholders meeting would take place on March 30, rating set by S&P is at one grade behind the one by 2002. The shareholders should approve the annual MoodyТs, and so it is very likely that S&P grade. would report, divide the companyТs profit for 2001, decide on soon catch up the latter dividends, and elect a new Board of Directors, auditing Corporate news. commission and companyТs auditor. It is worth noting The annual shareholders meeting of УNorilsky that the company managed to reduce dividends on the NickelФ will take place in Moscow on June 21. The grounds of legislation weakness last years and investors meeting will elect a new Board of 17 directors to be have lost their interest in УSurgutneftegasФ securities.
approved by the present Board of Directors. In early February the leading Russian dairy and juice The Director General of УLenenergoФ A. Likhachev producer УWim-Bill-DannФ placed its ADS on the proved that that the company had consulted Standard & NYSE. In total, the company placed 10.62 million Poor's concerning conferment a rating. ADS at $19.50, worth a total of $207.1 million, the According to preliminary data, the net profit of demand exceeded supply by five times. Thus, the УGazpromФ in 2001 amounted to 100 billion roubles, market capitalisation of the company was evaluated by and it is envisaged to account for some 73 billion the US investors at $828.4 million. That was for the roubles in 2002. In 2001 УGazpromФ produced 512 first time that a Russian company operating in the billion cubic meters of gas and10.2 million tons of market for consumer goods became listed at NYSE.
condensate and oil. The volume of processed gas Until recently it was only four Russian companiesТ accounted for 34.6 billion cubic meters. Last year the ADSs that have been listed on the NYSE (three of gas concern supplied 317.5 billion cubic meters of gas those were from telecommunication sector) Ц to the domestic market, while another 126.9 billion УVympelcomФ, УRostelecomФ, УMTS,Ф and УTatneftФ.
cubic meters Ц ton Europe and yet 39.8 billion cubic Such a successful placement of ADS by УWim-Billmeters Ц to the Baltic states. The Board of Directors DannФ undoubtedly should have a positive impact on decided that the annual УGazpromФ shareholders dynamics of the Russian stock market and give a meeting would take place on June 28, with registration positive signal to foreign investments inflow to the of shareholders to be closed on May 13. market.
Over the three quarters of 2001 The net profit of The total receipts of УMosenergoФ in 2001 made up УLUKoilФ according to US GAAP slid to $1937 billion 46 billion roubles. The company has reduced its compared to $2458 billion for nine months of 2000. accounts payable by 4,055 million roubles (from The net profit per share amounted to at most $2.47 over 11,263 million roubles as of beginning of 2001 to the reported period. Such unfavourable news resulted million roubles as of early January 2002). The in a 7% drop in УLUKoilФ stock price, despite a 8% companyТs representatives argued the profits enough price rise for URALS oil (occurred between February financial resources (336 million roubles) to pay dividends for 2001.
TABLE 1.DYNAMICS OF THE FOREIGN STOCK INDEXES as of February 27, 2002 value change for last change since beginning of month (%) the year (%) RTS (Russia) 291.64 1.43% 13.59% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 10127.58 2.09% -0.09% Nasdaq Composite (USA) 1751.88 -9.42% -11.84% S&P 500 (USA) 1109.89 -1.80% -4.40% FTSE 100 (UK) 5178.4 0.26% -1.22% DAX-30 (Germany) 4960.22 -2.89% -3.87% CAC-40 (France) 4424.71 -0.83% -4.32% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 6319.9 1.32% -1.53% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 10573.09 5.75% 0.29% Bovespa (Brazil) 14212 11.72% 4.67% IPC (Mexico) 6795.9 -1.90% 5.08% IPSA (Chile) 96.22 -1.27% -11.81% Straits Times (Singapore) 1702.37 -4.73% 4.70% Seoul Composite(Korea) 822.11 9.90% 18.51% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 11186 -15.59% -18.84% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index 335.038 2.22% 6.29% Interbank credit market. of 2001. However, as liquidity within the banking The situation in the rouble interbank credit system fell (because of rouble withdrawals by the market between late 2001 to early 2002 was Bank of Russia the balances on correspondent characterised by a smooth upward trend of interest accounts of commercial banks in the Russian rates (see Fig. 7). After the peak in the second half Central Bank shrank from 100Ц120 to 70 billion of December 2001 (up to 50Ц55% annualised), roubles), the rates on interbank loans went up, and when banks attacked the rouble exchange rate, in by late February they reached the level of 10Ц20% January 2002 the rates came back to the level of 5Ц annualised.
7% annualised, which was typical for the most part FIGURE 7.
'Overnight' Ruble Interbank Interest Rates between December, 2001, to February, MIBID MIBOR MIACR Foreign exchange market. rouble exchange rate dynamics were determined In February 2002 the tendency to growth of mainly by the demand on the part of commercial dollar/rouble exchange rate continued, but the pace banks, which was restricted by volume of liquidity of devaluation slowed down substantially. In our within the banking system.
opinion, the Bank of Russia played a passive role in In total, in February 2002, the official dollar the market, it did not intervene with selling foreign exchange rate grew from 30.685 roubles/$ to exchange, but also restricted purchasing of foreign 30.9404 roubles/$, i.e. by 0.83% (10.4% exchange supplied by exporters. At the same time, annualised, see Fig. 8). The СtodayТ dollar exchange taking into account seasonal fluctuations of trade rate in the SELT increased from 30.7100 roubles/$ balance, we suppose the supply of foreign exchange to 30.9483 roubles/$ (as of February 27), i.e. by on the part of exporters grew in February compared 0.78%. The СtomorrowТ dollar exchange rate grew to December and January, while demand for from 30.7248 roubles/$ to 30.9564 roubles/$ (as of foreign exchange for import remained at the level February 27), i.e. by 0.75%. According to noted in December. Hence, the participation of the preliminary estimates, in February the trading Bank of Russia in the market as well as increment volumes by dollar in the SELT did not exceed of its foreign reserves appeared to be modest, while billion roubles.
Dynamics of the Rouble / Dollar Exchange Rates in 31,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,The official dollar exchange rate 30,The average-weighted 'today' dollar exchange rate 30,30,The average-weighted 'tomorrow' dollar exchange rate 30,30,30,30,30,FIGURE 9.
Dynamics of the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate on the International Markets 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,In February the euro / dollar exchange rate in the reason for further decline in the euro exchange international foreign exchange market went down, rate was the difference in forecasts on the USA and and it fluctuated around the level of 0.87 $/euro the euro-zone economic perspectives for 2002. The during the whole month (see Fig. 9). The main preliminary data testify the recession in the US roubles/US dollar 01.01.05.01.10.01.12.01.16.01.18.01.22.01.24.01.26.01.30.01.01.02.05.02.07.02.09.02.13.02.15.02.19.02.21.02.23.02.28.02.02.03.USD/EURO 01.07.08.07.15.07.22.07.29.07.05.08.12.08.19.08.26.08.02.09.09.09.16.09.23.09.30.09.07.10.14.10.126.96.36.199.04.11.11.11.188.8.131.52.02.12.09.12.184.108.40.206.30.12.06.01.13.01.20.01.27.01.03.02.10.02.17.02.24.02.economy stopped already in January 2002, and it is same pace during the past half-year, and the likely to renew its growth as early as in mid-2002. rouble/euro exchange rate remained practically At the same time, in February 2002 the data constant. In February, the rouble/euro official available indicated negative rates of real growth in exchange rate decreased from 26.5456 roubles/euro the biggest European economy (Germany) for two to 26.712 roubles/euro, i.e. by 0.63% over the quarters running, and, therefore, the position of the month. At the same time, one should note a growth European economies within the business cycle of interest in the European currency in the Russian remained shaky. foreign exchange market. According to preliminary In February 2002 the euro/rouble exchange rate estimates, in February 2002, the total trading still fluctuated around the level of 26.5 to 27.5 volume on euro in the SELT made up to 3 billion roubles per euro (see Fig. 10). Actually, the rouble roubles.
and euro devaluate against the US dollar with the FIGURE 10.
Dynamics of EURO Official Excnange Rate in the second half of 2001 and 27,27,26,26,25,25,24,24,TABLE 2. INDICATORS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS.
October November December January February* inflation rate (monthly) 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 3.1% 1.5% annualised inflation rate by the monthТs 14.03% 18.16% 20.98% 44.25% 19.56% tendency the RCB refinancing rate 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% annualised yield to maturity on OFZ issues 15.07% 14.91% 15.84% 14.08% 13.8% volume of trading in the secondary GKO- 9.14 12.56 10.20 4.51 6.OFZ market a month (billion roubles) yield to maturity on Minfin bonds by the end of the month (% a year):
4th tranche 10.61% 10.57% 10.20% 7.22% 6.0% 5th tranche 15.53% 14.62% 13.36% 11.03% 9.4% 6th tranche 14.76% 12.84% 11.86% 10.57% 9.0% 7th tranche 13.92% 13.24% 12.54% 11.62% 9.2% 8th tranche 14.29% 12.88% 11.93% 10.41% 8.8% INSTAR Ц MIACR rate (annual %) on interbank loans by the end of the month:
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