Open Joint-Stock Company “Gazprom” On 25 November, the Open Joint-Stock Company (OJSC) “Gazprom” submitted its non-audited consolidated intermediate shorter financial report for the first half-year 2005 in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standard. In the first six months of 2005 the proceeds of sales (less the excise, VAT and customs duties) grew by 139,759 million roubles, or by 30%, as compared to the same period of 2004, and amounted to 611,233 million roubles. During that period, the operating expenses, as compared to the same period of 2004, increased by 53,106 million roubles, or by 15 %, amounting to 402,178 million roubles. The amount of profit in that period, to be distributed among the OJSC “Gazprom”’s shareholders, in the first half-year 2005 was 152 810 million roubles, or by 60,552 million roubles (or 66 %) higher than in the same period of 2004.
Open Joint-Stock Company “Sberbank of Russia” On 16 November, at the Sberbank of Russia, First Deputy Chairman of the Sberbank’s Board A. K.
Alioshkina delivered a speech on the results of the Bank’s operation in 9 months of the year 2005 and the forecasted results of its 2005 operation.
According to the information presented in the speech, during 9 months of the year 2005 the Sberbank’s net assets went up by 20% and amounted to 2.4 trillion roubles. The balance-sheet profit was 63.3 billion roubles, or by 20% more than the total profit of the year 2004. The amount of net profit was 48,3 billion roubles, or by 11% more than the total profit of the whole preceding year. The Bank’s own capital grew by 38% to 239.3 billion roubles. Asset profitability increased to 3.0%, capital profitability – to 29,5%.
The high financial indices preconditioned the high demand that the market participants displayed for the shares issued by the Sberbank of Russia: in 9 months of the current year the price of ordinary shares went up by more than 1.9 times to $960 per share, that of preference shares - by more than 2.times to $13.6 (during that time, the RTS index increased by 1.6 times). As a result, the Banks’s market capitalization increased from $9.7 billion to $18.9 billion.
Behavior of world stock exchange indices Change in month Change from Data as of 28 November 2005 Index value (%)9 year’s beginning (%) RTS (Russia) 1039.80 14.17% 71.14% 10890.72 6.46% 1.50% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 2239.37 8.51% 4.05% NASDAQ Composite (USA) 1257.46 6.66% 4.61% S&P 500 (USA) 5477.40 5.68% 13.01% FTSE 100 (UK) 5176.59 7.71% 20.62% DAX-30 (Germany) 4575.31 5.51% 18.66% CAC-40 (France) 7427.50 7.34% 28.76% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 14986.94 11.70% 30.12% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 31358.00 7.64% 21.91% Bovespa (Brazil) 16836.11 9.06% 29.28% IPC (Mexico) 2034.90 -1.85% 13.31% IPSA (Chile) 2308.54 4.84% 11.52% Straits Times (Singapore) 1293.74 10.92% 44.76% Seoul Composite (South Korea) 36621.47 17.10% 43.92% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 668.243 9.91% 23.34% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index The currency market.
On the Russian currency market, alongside a minor trend toward the strengthening of the USD/rouble exchange rate, no significant fluctuation in the exchange rates of foreign currencies were seen. In part, this was due to the situation pertaining to liquidity, as well as to the behavior of the international currency market, which was “playing back” the expected increase in interest rates. Besides, the weakness of the European currency on the FOREX market became a reflection of the unrest in France. However, later on the USD continued to strengthen its position much more rapidly, mirroring the situation existing on the FOREX market, as well as responding to a rather favorable statistical data concerning the US labor market. During the month’s second half, the domestic currency market became stabilized, and the exchange rates of foreign currencies were fluctuating within narrow spans.
This substantial strengthening of the position of the US currency on the international market was due to the differences in interest rates, as well as to the latest declarations made by the European and US monetary authorities concerning the priorities of their monetary policies in the nearest future. As for internal factors, the decline in international oil prices further increases the chances that the UDS will become stronger.
As seen by the month’s results, between 1 and 29 November the USD’s exchange rate went up by 0.445 roubles (1.57%), amounting to 28.87 roubles per 1 USD. According to the IET’s forecast (see “The Bulletin of Model Calculations for Short-Term Forecasts of the RF’s Socio-Economic Indices”, October 2005, IET), the USD /rouble exchange rate in December may become approximately 28.roubles per 1 USD, whereas the same index in November was forecasted as being at the level of roubles per 1 USD. The total trade volume in the USD in the SELT electronic trading system in the period from 1 through 25 November amounted to approximately $30.05 billion, the average daily turnover being $1.76 billion (as compared to approximately $29.98 billion, with the average daily turnover of $1.66 billion, in October). The peak trade volume in the USD during that period was regis In respect to the levels as of 28 October.
tered on 23 November and amounted to approximately $2.69 billion, the lowest – $777.14 million on 11 November.
The rouble’s liquidity in the banking sector in November of the current year went down as compared to that in October: the average amount of residuals on the correspondent accounts of credit institutions with the Bank of Russia in November was approximately 281.67 billion roubles, as compared to 330.15 billion roubles in October.
Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2004-40.39.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 38.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.29.28.27.FIGURE 8.
Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 22.214.171.124.1.1.Between 1 and 29 November, the euro’s exchange rate on the international market went down by $0.034 (-2.78%), to 1.1728 USD per 1 euro. A similar trend was noted in respect to the euro/rouble roubles 01.10.16.10.126.96.36.199.188.8.131.52.30.12.14.01.29.01.13.02.28.02.15.03.30.03.14.04.29.04.14.05.29.05.13.06.28.06.13.07.28.07.12.08.27.08.11.09.26.09.11.10.184.108.40.206.25.11.USD/EURO 01.10.31.10.220.127.116.11.29.01.28.02.30.03.29.04.29.05.28.06.28.07.27.08.26.09.26.10.25.11.exchange rate. In the period from 1 through 29 November, the euro/rouble exchange rate decreased by 0.78 roubles (-2,25%), from 34.53 to 33.75 roubles per 1 euro. The total turnover of trade in the euro in the SELT between 1 and 25 November was about 370.34 million euros, the average daily turnover being at the level of 21.78 million euros (около 296.04 million euros при среднедневном обороте 16.45 million euros in October). Thus, in November the Russian currency market demonstrated a considerable growth of the volumes of trade in the euro. The maximum volume of trade in the euro during that period was registered on 22 November at the level of 41.82 million euros, the minimum volume – 14.27 million euros on 14 November.
Indices of financial markets Month July August September October November * monthly rate of inflation 0.3% -0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% estimated, annual rate of inflation in accordance 3.66% -1.19% 3.66% 7.44% 12.7% with the tendency in given month refinancing interest rate of RF CB 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% average yield to maturity of OFZ, all issues (% per 6.89% 7.03% 6.60% year) turnover of GKO-OFZ market for given month 22.97 49.09 54.(bln. roubles) yield to maturity of Minfin bonds by end of month (% per year):
Tranche 5 5.16% 4.96% 4.89% 5.37% 5.2% Tranche 6 4.28% 4.13% 4.40% 4.91% 4.6% Tranche 7 5.47% 5.24% 5.13% 5.73% 5.3% Tranche 8 4.51% 4.33% 4.14% 4.58% 4.6% yield to maturity of eurobonds by end of month (% per year):
2007 4.61% 4.55% 4.54% 4.97% 4.9% 2010 4.64% 4.69% 4.57% 5.15% 5.1% 2018 5.69% 5.52% 5.28% 5.90% 5.6% 2028 6.24% 5.96% 5.74% 6.18% 6.0% 2030 5.49% 5.35% 5.16% 5.67% 5.4% MBK- MIACR rate (% per year by end of month) 4.56% 5.26% 2.61% 8.50% 12.13% on credits for 1 day official rouble/USD exchange rate by end of 28.6341 28.5450 28.4989 28.4244 28.month official rouble/euro exchange rate by end of month 34.7160 34.8763 34.3811 34.5300 33.rise in official rouble /USD exchange rate during -0.13% -0.31% -0.16% -0.26% 1.08% month (%) rise in official rouble / euro exchange rate during 0.46% 0.56% -1.42% -0.43% -1.57% month (%) Turnover of stock market in RTS in given month 594.10 942.81 1197.60 1045.18 778.(million USD for shares included in list for calculating RTS index ) value of RTS-1 index by the end of month 783.98 882.40 1007.76 934.99 1037.changes of RTS-1 index during given month (%) 10.81% 12.55% 14.21% -7.22% 10.94% * Estimates D. Polevoi The real sector of the economy: factors and trends In the year 2005, almost all spheres of business activity demonstrated diminishing growth intensity.
Industrial production growth in January through October 2005 was 3.9%, that of construction works – 9.0%, transport cargo turnover – 2.6%. A typical feature in 2005 was the accelerated growth in consumer demand, as compared to the trends seen in investment demand. On the whole, during January through October 2005, the retail trade turnover increased, as compared to the same period of the previous year, by 11.8%, that of commercial services rendered to the population – by 6.9%, while investments in fixed assets grew by 9.9%.
The forecast values of macroeconomic indices, calculated by the IET for the period until the end of the year 2005, have shown that the expected GDP growth is 105.7%, that of investments in fixed assets – 109.0%, and that of industrial production - 104.1%.
In 2005, a certain slowdown in growth has been occurring almost in all spheres of activity. According to preliminary data provided by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the GDP growth in Quarter III of the year 2005 amounted to 6.3%, which is by 0.8 p.p. lower than the similar index for the previous year, while the index of the output of production and services in the basic sectors of economic activity in January through October 2005 was 105.7%, as compared to 107.2% in the same period of the previous year. One of the main components of economic growth in 2005 became the accelerated growth of the services sector, as compared to the changes in commodities output.
The structural shifts occurring in commodities production 2005 were determined by the accelerated growth of construction works, as compared to industrial production. While the volume of works in the “construction activity” category increased by 9.0%, against 10.2% in January through October 2004, growth in industrial production slowed down to 3.9 %, being by 3.2 p.p. lower than the previous year’s index. Growth in agriculture in 2005 was also at a more moderate rate than in the previous year. In January through October, agricultural production growth was 1.9%, against 3.0% in the same period of 2004.
A dominating influence on the changes in the services sector’s development was produced by the intensive turnover growth in retail and wholesale trade. Growth of the retail trade turnover in January through October 2005 was 11.8%, while that of the volume of commercial services rendered to the population – 6.9%. Growth in GDP by almost one-third in January through September 2005 can be explained by the increasing role of trade in generating economic growth. The consumer boom was sustained by the accelerating growth rates of the population’s real incomes and the ongoing intensive expansion of consumer credit. Despite the high inflation rate, from September onward the growth trajectory of the population’s real incomes became steeper than that in the previous year. In the period from January through October 2005 population’s incomes increased by 9.4%, against 8.4% in the same period of the previous year, while the amount of bank credits granted to the population - byа 57.5%.
Figure. Changes in rates of production of commodities and services, by types of economic activity, in years 2004 - 2005, as percentage of corresponding quarters of previous years I Quarter II Quarter III Quarter IV Quarter I Quarter II Quarter III Quarter -industrial producti2004г. constr2005г. orks volume on uction w agriculture transport and communications retail trade turnover volume of commercial services to popu volume of commercial services to population The exceptionally favorable situation in foreign trade continued, this year, its positive influence on the domestic economic situation. It should be noted that almost 4/5 of growth in the commodities exports occurred due to the high prices of fuel and energy resources, as well as on metal ores and metals on the international market. The global prices of mineral resources, considering their prominent share in the structure of Russian aggregate export of commodities, which constitutes about 70% of total export value, were, on the average in January through September 2005, by 37% higher than in the same period of the previous year, including the prices of the products of the Russian fuel and energy complex - by 46%, of ferrous metals – by 15.5%, and of non-ferrous metals - by 11%. In the period from January through September 2005, the price of natural gas went up by 47% in Europe, and by 36% - in the USA. However, in physical terms the rate of export growth slowed down to 103.4%, as compared to 110.3% in January through September 2004, which was primarily due to the reduction in physical volumes of oil exports and slower rate of metal exports.
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