The execution of the RF consolidated federal budget in January – August 2005 (as % of the GDP) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 28.7% 23.6% 24.3% 26.5% 26.6% 25.9% 26.4% 25.9% 25.2% 25.4% 25.4% 25.5% Incomes 32.9% 31.3% 31.4% 33.6% 33.6% 32.7% 33.3% 32.5% 31.7% 32.0% 32.1% 32.1% Expenditures 18.3% 23.7% 26.0% 28.4% 28.4% 28.8% 29.1% 28.9% 28.4% 29.3% 29.7% 31.1% Deficit / 7.7% 5.4% 5.3% 5.2% 3.8% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 1.0% 14.6% Surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 25.6% 24.4% 25.6% 27.4% 27.1% 26.0% 26.1% 25.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 25.2% Incomes 32.0% 30.3% 31.5% 33.4% 33.6% 32.2% 32.2% 31.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 31.1% Expenditures 20.7% 25.3% 27.7% 28.8% 28.8% 28.6% 28.7% 28.5% 8.2% 7.8% 7.9% 29.7% Deficit / 11.3% 5.0% 3.8% 4.5% 4.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.1%.7% 3.0% 2.8% 1.4% Surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 6.1% 21.8% 27.4% 27.4% 26.6% 27.2% 27.1% 26.4% 26.5% 26.9% 26.8% Incomes 30.6% 28.2% 29.8% 32.9% 32.9% 32.5% 33.1% 32.9% 31.9% 32.0% 32.3% 32.3% Expenditures 18.5% 22.8% 25.4% 27.3% 26.9% 27.0% 27.0% 26.9% 26.0% 25.9% 26.1% 27.8% Deficit / 12.1% 5.4% 4.4% 5.6% 6.0% 5.5% 6.1% 6.0% 5.9% 6.1% 6.2% 4.5% Surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Incomes 48.8% 40.3% 40.3% 40.8% 38.8% 38.2% 37.6% 37.0% 36.0% Expenditures 22.2% 23.3% 24.9% 27.1% 26.5% 26.6% 26.7% 26.6% 27.2% Deficit / 26.5% 17.0% 15.4% 13.7% 12.3% 11.6% 11.0% 10.5% 8.8% Surplus The main developments in the budget sphere In early November, the Ministry of Finance suggested that the possibility of introducing negative transfers in respect to the regions be considered. According to Director of the Department of Interbudgetary Relations of the RF Ministry of Finance, A. Silianov, this system is to be effectuated in the RF from 1 January 200 between subjects of the RF and municipalities, if the level of budget financing provided to municipal formations turns out to be twice as high as the average level. In this case, a subject of the RF will be allowed to apply the system of negative transfers and to withdraw, for its own benefit, 50% of the amount in excess of the doubled amount of a municipality’s budget financing. This will make it possible to take in account the factor of taxpayer migration and thus to achieve a more justified distribution of the funds available.
Besides, in November the State Duma approved the 2006 federal budget in the third reading. According to RF Minister of Finance A. Kudrin, the coming year’s budget incorporates all the amendments pertaining to the national projects that have been declared by the RF President as priority ones, as well as increased expenditures on public health care, housing construction and agriculture.
D. Polevoi Monetary policy In October the consumer price index (CPI) amounted to 0.6%, which is less that the price growth rate in the same period of the preceding year by 0.5 p. p. Money supply growth in the RF continued throughout October: the narrow monetary base increased by 1.2%. The volume of gold and foreign currency reserves by mid-November reached the level of $ 163.3 billion.
The value of the consumer price index in October 2005 amounted to 0.6% (as compared to 1.1% in October 2004, see Fig. 1). The price growth in October (for the second month in a row) occurred largely due to the growing prices of non-food commodities, which increased by 0.7% (same as in October 2004). The groups of non-food commodities primarily responsible for this growth were as follows: knitwear (+ 1,1%), footwear (+ 1%), clothes and linen (+ 1%) and construction materials (+ 0,6%). It should be notes that, as we have predicted, the rate of growth in the prices of motor petrol went down both due to the seasonal factor’s influence (the demand for motor petrol in autumn and winter always decreases) and as a result of the agreement achieved between the RF Government and the leading oil companies concerning the freezing of petrol prices. During October the price of motor petrol increased on the average only by 0.5%.
The prices of commercial services provided to the population went up in October also by 0.7%.
The highest growth rate in October was displayed by the services rendered by cultural organizations (+ 26%), communications services (+ 2.5%), medical services (+ 1.6%), pre-school education services (+ 1.1%) and consumer services (+ 1.1%). The growth of the prices of housing and utilities services in October was no more than 0.4%. Only the prices of the services rendered by health resort and spa facilities became lower in October (- 1.1%), influenced primarily by the seasonal factor.
Food prices in October went up by 0.4% (as compared to + 1.4% in October 2004). Judging by the month’s results, the highest growth was displayed by milk and dairy products (+ 1.9%), butter (+ 1.3%), meat and poultry (+ 0.5%). Prices went down in two commodity groups – fruits and vegetables (- 2.4%) and granulated sugar (- 1.2%).
The increase of the base consumer price index2 from the beginning of 2005 did not exceed 7.1% (having been in the same period of the preceding year – 8,1%). According to the IET’s monthly bulletin of modeled short-term forecasts of socio-economic indices in the RF, the CPI in November was to be 1.2%.
The Growth Rate of the CPI in 2002 - 2004 (% per month).
3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% The base consumer price index reflects the inflation level on the consumer market less the seasonal factor (prices of vegetable and fruit products) and the administrative factor (tariffs on regulated services, etc.); it is calculated by the RF Statistics Service.
Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Sep Sep Sep Sep Mar Mar Mar Mar Nov Nov Nov May May May May During October 2005 the monetary base (in a broad sense3) decreased by 55.7 billion roubles, to 2.49 trillion roubles (- 2.2%). The broad monetary base as of 1 October 2005 was 2.55 trillion roubles.
Below we are going to discuss the changes in each of the components of the broad monetary base.
The cash-in-circulation volume, including the cash balances of credit institutions, as of 1 November was 1.88 trillion roubles (+ 1.3%, as compared to 1 October), the correspondent accounts of credit institutions with the Bank of Russia – 303.2 billion roubles (- 20.3%), mandatory reserves – 154,billion roubles (+ 3.1%), banks’ deposits with the Bank of Russia – 48.4 billion roubles (- 24.8%), the value of the Bank of Russia’s bonds held by credit institutions – 96.1 billion roubles (+ 10.5%), the RF Central Bank’s liabilities against securities buyback – 0 billion roubles (no changes, as compared to October of this year), while the reserves on operations in foreign currencies deposited with the Bank of Russia – 7.2 billion roubles (- 2.7%).
Changes in the Monetary Base and in the Gold and Foreign Currency Reserves in 2003 - 2004.
1720 1450 Monetary Base (billion rubles) Gold and Foreign Currency Reserves (billion dollars) The growth, in October of this year, of the cash-in-circulation volume (+ 1.3%), with a simultaneous increase in mandatory reserves (+ 3.1%), resulted in broadening of the narrow monetary base (cash + mandatory reserves)4 by 1.2% (see Fig. 2). At the same time, the gold and foreign currency reserves of the RF CB also grew in October (+ 3.4%), amounting, as of 1 October, to $ 165 billion.
However, during the first three weeks in November they decreased by 1% as a result of the measures being implemented by the Bank of Russia in order to maintain the rouble’s exchange rate. It should be reminded that in November the USD’s exchange rate on the international currency markets displayed a stable growth, which produced a downward impact on the rouble’s rate. On the other hand, the currency inflow in the RF from the proceeds of sale of energy carriers was continuing. A considerable The RF’s monetary base in a broad sense, in addition to the cash-in-circulation issued by the Bank of Russia, and the residuals on the accounts of mandatory reserves of the funds in the national currency attracted by credit institutions and deposited with the Bank of Russia, includes the funds in corresponding accounts with credit institutions and bank deposits placed with the Bank of Russia.
It should be remembered that the monetary base in a broad sense is not a money aggregate; it is a characteristic of the Bank of Russia’s liabilities denominated in the national currency. The monetary base in a narrow sense is a money aggregate (being one of the characteristics of the money supply volume), fully controlled by the RF Central Bank.
billion rubles billion dollars 3-9.11.2-8.06.5-11.01.9-15.03.4-10.08.6-12.10.24-30.11.15-21.12.16-22.02.21-27.04.12-18.05.23-29.06.14-20.07.25-31.08.15-21.09.17-23.11.26.01-1.02.30.03-5.04.27.10-2.11.portion of the liquid funds flowing into the country was being accumulated in the RF Stabilization Fund, the volume of which, as of 1 November 2005, was 1094.5 billion roubles (+ 133,8 billion roubles, as compared to 1 October 2005).
It is noteworthy that according to the IET’s monthly bulletin of modeled short-term forecasts of socio-economic indices in the RF, the accumulated gold and foreign currency reserves in December is to become in excess of $ 172 billion.
The RF Ministry of Finance in January - October this year made payments against the government external debt in the amount of 924.1 billion roubles. The debt redemption proper amounted to 783.billion roubles, while the interest payments - to 140.4 billion roubles.
According to the information released by the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, the RF CB is planning to increase the share of gold in the gold and foreign currency reserves. He noted that in the past few years, resulting from the constant growth in the volume of the gold and foreign currency reserves, the gold component’s share became considerable lower. As noted by the CB’s Chairman, as of now the country’ gold and foreign currency reserves contain 380 tons of gold.
This year, on 16 November, the Bank of Russia submitted to the State Duma a new version of The Main Directions of Monetary Policy in 2006. It should be reminded that in mid-October this year the State Duma’s Committee on Budget and Taxes already considered the draft of The Main Directions of the State’s Unified Monetary Policy in the Year 2006. However, according to the Committee’s members, the experience of implementing the monetary policy has shown that there exist marked discrepancies between the inflation rate’s forecasted and actual indices, largely due to the underestimation of oil prices. In this connection, the newly developed draft document of The Main Directions now incorporated a version of calculations based on the forecasted price of “URALS” oil amounting to $ 60 per barrel.
P. Trunin Financial markets In November, the situation on the Russian financial market was on the whole rather favorable.
While early in the month the factor, which was influencing to a certain degree all the segments of the financial market, was the increased interest rate in the USA, as well as an uncertainty as to what the next steps of the US monetary authorities were going to be, in the month’s second half this factor was no more the dominant one on the market, and the quotations of the majority of Russian assets demonstrated a growth. On the currency market in November the USD considerably strengthened its position as regards the rouble, which was in part due to the increased interest rate in the USA and favorable macroeconomic statistics, as well as to the growing social tension in Europe. As for the Russian share market, in November the continuing market liberalization of the “Gazprom”’s shares became its main growth factor.
The government securities market On the whole, judging by the November results, the Russian currency bonds market demonstrated lowering yields to maturity. Early in the month the situation on the market was unstable, which was due to the recent eventual increase in the rate of discount in the USA. As a consequence, the quotations of Russian currency bonds were declining in face of growing yields to maturity of US treasury bonds. Later on, a slight growth was seen, which, nevertheless, failed to produce any fundamental changes in the basically negative attitude of investors toward Russian eurobonds. Besides, the market participants were waiting for the speech to be delivered by B. Bernanke, the candidate to the post of the US Federal Reserve System’s (FRS) Director, to the US Congress, which could cast some light on the FRS’s policy in the coming year, as well as for the macroeconomic data to be published.
At the same time, from mid-month onward, the market demonstrated growth following the increase in the value of the US bonds. In the USA, quite a substantial body of statistical data was published, the When preparing this overview, the author used the analytical materials and reviews issued by the “Zenit” Bank, the IC “ATON”, the MICEX and the RF CB, as well as the materials posted on the official web sites of Russian issuers of securities.
majority of it having a positive slant and being perceived accordingly by the investors. Growth continued until the month’s end. The spread between Russian and US securities was reduced to a new historical low.
As of 25 November, the yields to maturity of RUS 30 amounted to 5.40% per annum, of RUS-18 – to 5.57% per annum. As of the same date, the yields to maturity of Russian eurobonds was as follows:
Tranche 7 of the Minfin bonds – 5.20%, Tranche 6 of the Minfin bonds – 4.57%, Tranche 5 of the Minfin bonds – 5.20%, RUS-07 – 4.86%.
Minfin bonds' yields to maturity in September - November 6.5% Tranche 5 Tranche 6 Tranche 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% FIGURE 2.
Yields to maturity of the Russian eurobonds, with maturity in 2030, 2018 and 2007, in September - November 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 01. 05. 07. 09. 13. 15. 19. 21. 23. 27. 29. 03. 05. 07. 12. 14. 18. 20. 24. 26. 28. 01. 03. 08. 10. 15. 17. 21. 23.
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