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Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2003-40.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 39.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 38.37.36.35.34.33.32.31.30.29.28.27.In November, on the world foreign exchange market there was observed a sharp appreciation of the Euro against the US dollar. In the beginning of the month, the Euro / US $ exchange rate resumed its increase after a certain consolidation, since the victory of the Republic candidate at the US Presidential election in fact means the persistence of the weak dollar in the course of the next four years. Moreover, after the publication of the data on the state of the US balance of trade the Euro exchange rate continued to set new record highs. The negative macroeconomic expectations in the USA and the statement of A. Greenspan, the head of the US Federal Reserve System, that with time foreign investors may loose interest in financing the permanently growing deficit of the US balance of payment also played against the dollar. On the contrary, the US $ exchange rate was supported by a certain decline in oil prices observed on the world market.

In the period from October 31 till November 27, the exchange rate of Euro on the world market appreciated by US $ 0.05 (3.93 per cent) and reached US $ 1.3297 per Euro. At this background, there was also observed a significant appreciation of the Euro against the Ruble. In the period from October 30 till November 27, the European currency appreciated against the Ruble by RUR 0.91 (2.49 per cent) from RUR 36.64 per Euro to RUR 37.56 per Euro. Thus, the Euro exchange rate reached its historical maximum both on the world and the Russian market. The aggregate turnover of trade at the SELT amounted to Euro 139.7 million in the period from November 1 till November 26, while the roubles 01.10.31.10.30.11.30.12.29.01.28.02.29.03.28.04.28.05.27.06.27.07.26.08.25.09.25.10.24.11.average daily turnover was registered at about Euro 7.35 million. In this period, the highest volume of trade with Euro was registered on November 18 at Euro 10.52 million, and the lowest, Euro 4.17 million, was observed on November 9.

FIGURE 8.

Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 1.1.1.1.1.1.TABLE 2. FINANCIAL MARKETS INDICATORS Month July August September October November* Monthly inflation rate 0,9% 0,4% 0,4% 1,1% 1,3% Inflation rate annualized on the basis of this 11,35% 4,91% 4,91% 14,03% 16,8% month's trend CB RF refinancing rate 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% Annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues (%) 6,45% 6,64% 7,13% % Volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ 6,41 20,61 33,market for the month (RUR billion) Yield to maturity on Minfin bonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 5th tranche 6,52% 5,87% 5,84% 5,28% 5,0% 6th tranche 4,78% 4,25% 4,25% 3,80% 4,1% 7th tranche 7,63% 6,90% 6,86% 6,27% 6,0% 8th tranche 5,33% 4,87% 4,76% 4,28% 4,4% Yield to maturity of Eurobonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 2005 3,45% 3,92% 5,14% 6,26% 8,0% 2007 5,71% 5,30% 5,86% 5,39% 6,0% 2010 7,94% 6,76% 7,01% 6,66% 6,9% 2018 8,02% 7,60% 7,61% 7,21% 7,2% 2028 8,53% 8,22% 8,20% 7,83% 7,7% 2030 8,08% 7,23% 7,24% 6,84% 6,8% INSTAR-MIACR rate (% p.a.) on interbank 4,96% 9,86% 3,13% 2,93% 1,0% overnight loans at the end of the month Official RUR / US$ exchange rate at the end of 29,1019 29,2447 29,2171 28,7655 28,the month USD/EURO 01.10.31.10.30.11.30.12.29.01.28.02.29.03.28.04.28.05.27.06.27.07.26.08.25.09.25.10.24.11.Official RUR / Euro exchange rate at the end of 35,0532 35,1463 35,9896 36,6472 37,the month Average annualized growth in RUR / US$ ex- 0,26% 0,49% -0,09% -1,55% -1,84% change rate Average annualized growth in RUR / Euro ex- -0,68% 0,27% 2,40% 1,83% 2,10% change rate Volume of trading at the stock market in the 368,25 277,15 262,27 470,87 RTS for the month (US$ million) Value of RTS-1 Index at the end of the month 540,27 584,65 635,57 663,67 Change in value of RTS-1 Index during the month -7,59% 8,21% 8,71% 4,42% -5,0% (%) * Estimate D. Polevoy The Real Sector of the Economy: Factors and Trends In January through September of 2004, the increase in GDP made 6.9 per cent as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The major factors behind the growth remain the intensive dynamics of external and investment demand. The structure of final demand changed under the impact of the outpacing rates of growth in gross accumulation in comparison with the final consumption of households. According to the estimates, in the case the increase in investment in fixed assets and exports as expected is at 111.5 per cent and 118.1 per cent respectively, while the rate of unemployment in the size of economically active population is 7.9 per cent, in 2004 GDP may grow by 6.6 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year.

According to the results of the period from January till September of 2004, the amount of GDP increased by 6.7 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. In the conditions of persisting favorable external business situation, the growth in the Russias economy was to a significant extent determined by an intensive increase in exports. The dynamic increase in the gap between the rates of growth in exports and domestic demand has been registered since the 2nd quarter of 2002. In January through September of 2004, the export of goods increased by 32.1 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year.

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 2001 2002 2003 Figure 1. Rates of growth in GDP, exports and imports in 2001 through 2004, in % of the figures registered in the respective quarter of the preceding year.

An analysis of the structure of formation and utilization of resources indicates that the qualitative specifics of the economic growth in the Russian economy was the simultaneous increase in the share of exports in the amount of sales of industrial products and the growth of imports in the structure of resources utilized on the domestic market. In the exceptionally favorable external economic situation, the growing demand for hydrocarbons, metals, and other types of raw materials and products of primary processing on the world market was a factor behind a sustainable growth in production of oil extracting industry, ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy, industries of the forestry complex, and chemistry. At the background of outpacing rates of growth registered with respect to external economic activities as compared with the dynamics of the domestic market, in October of 2004 the share of exports in the amount of sales of manufactured goods made 32.6 per cent and increased by 7.3 percentage points in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. In January through September of 2004, the specific weight of major fuel and energy resources in the structure of exports reached 54.5 per cent, while the share of ferrous and nonferrous metals increased up to 14.8 per cent in comparison with 11.2 per cent observed in January through September of 2003.

32,32,30,9 32,30,30,30 30,28,29,28,27,28,1 27,27,9 28,26,25,25,27,8 27,8 28,25,26 25,25,24,25,25,25,24,23,23,24,23,23,22,23,5 23,4 22,22,23,23,4 23,22,1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2003 share of exports in the amount of sales of manufactured goods share of imports in the resources for utilization on the domestic market Figure 2. The change in the specific weight of exports and imports in resources in through 2004, in %, in the prices of respective months of The dynamics of imports have been significantly affected by the gradual Ruble appreciation and the increase in the efficiency of import operations on the one hand, and the diminishing attractiveness of Russian goods in terms of their prices due to the increasing production costs, what was caused by growing prices of fuel and energy resources, construction materials, and transport tariffs, on the other hand. In particular, the quality and intensity of the economic growth are negatively affected by the outpacing rates of growth in wages and salaries in comparison with labor productivity, an increase in electrical power and energy intensity of production and the low efficiency of use of fixed assets. As the competitive power of Russian goods of final demand declined, in October the share of imports in the resources aimed for utilization on the domestic market increased to 28.1 per cent as compared with 22.5 per cent observed in early 2004. Let us note certain specifics of formation of resources on different markets.

On the consumer market, there was observed a stabilization of the share of imports in the total amount of commodity resources at the level of 44 per cent. It should be noted that this trend was primarily supported by the decelerating rates of growth in imports of competing food products. At the present level of incomes, prices, and the structure of consumer preferences, the Russian producers not only retained, but could successfully increase their niches on the foodstuffs market as they changed the range and improved the quality of their products. The share of imports made 34 per cent in the total amount of commodity resources of food products, what was at or below the average level registered in 2003. As concerns the market of nonfood products, there the situation was formed at the background of an outpacing rate of growth in imports in comparison with the output of domestic goods. In spite of the development of new production facilities manufacturing household appliances, furniture, and other household goods, the permanent crisis of the domestic light industry continued to negatively affect the nature of formation of commodity resources of the nonfood market. As the output of textile and clothing industry declined by 5.5 per cent and 12.3 per cent respectively in January through October of 2004, the imports of cotton fabrics increased by 17.7 per cent, while imports of knitted and cotton cloths grew by 25.1 per cent.

A specific feature of acceleration of the rates of growth in imports is primarily the increase in the imports of machinery and equipment in the commodity structure. While the increase in the total amount of imported goods in January through October of 2004 made 24.8 per cent, the amount of import of machinery and equipment grew by 46.2 per cent and made 44.1 per cent of the commodity structure of imports as compared with 39.2 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year. Although the rates of growth in mechanical engineering outpace the increase in investment in fixed assets, the structure and volumes of output of capital goods lags behind the changes in the reproduction and technology structure of investment in production. This year, the investment aimed at purchase of imported equipment made 23.5 per cent of the total investment in machinery, equipment, and transport vehicles in the economy at large.

In January through October of 2004, the increment in investment in fixed assets made 11.2 per cent, while the final consumption of households grew by 11.0 per cent. The acceleration of the dynamics of consumer demand was based on the growth in real disposable household incomes. In January through October of 2004, the real household incomes increased by 9.0 per cent as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. It should be noted that this year the rates of growth in real household incomes were most significantly affected by the outpacing increase in wages and salaries. In January through October of 2004, the real wages and salaries grew by 12.6 per cent as compared with 9.4 per cent observed in the respective period of the preceding year, what occurred at the background of an extremely moderate dynamics of growth in the real gross pensions (106.1 per cent) and other sources of household incomes.

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 2001 2002 2003 Figure 3. Changes in the dynamics of GDP growth across the components of final consumption in 2000 through 2004, in % of the figures registered in the respective quarter of the preceding year.

The growing purchasing power of households facilitated the persistence of high rates of increase in the retail trade turnover. In January through October of 2004, households spent Rub. 4071.7 billion for purchase of goods and services, what was by 22.7 per cent above the indicators observed in the respective period of the last year. The retail trade turnover grew by 11.6 per cent as compared with 8.5 per cent observed in January through October of 2003. As concerns the structure of retail trade turnover, there was observed that the rates of increase in sales of non-food goods have constantly outpaced the rates of growth in the sales of foodstuffs, while the share of sales carried out via trading organizations increased and the assortment structure of sales changed in favor of more expensive food products.

The shifts in the structure of household demand and the growing share of sales of non-food durable goods and household appliances have facilitated the development of consumer crediting. Since the beginning of the year, the amount of credits granted to individuals increased by 64.3 per cent and made Rub. 492.6 billion as on September 1, 2004. As on September 1, 2004, the share of credits granted to individuals made 13.1 per cent of the total amount of credits granted by the crediting organizations.

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