From October 29 till November 26, the price index of corporate bonds traded at the MICEX8 increased by 0.03 points (0.03 per cent) and the index of ten most liquid corporate sector bonds decreased by 0.04 points (by 0.03 per cent). In the period from November 1 till November 26, the total turnover in the bond sector of MICEX made about RUR 24.2 billion, while the average daily turnover was registered at RUR 1.27 million.
According to the RTS.
The indices of corporate bonds traded at the MICEX that have been used for the calculations are calculated by Zenit Bank.
FIGURE Dynamics of corporate bond indices ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-CorpExternal factors affecting the dynamics of the Russian stock market.
In the beginning of the month, the oil quotations resumed their growth after a preceding decline as the results of the Presidential elections in the USA had been made public. At the same time, a further growth in quotations was constrained by the influence of a number of factors. First, the oil and oil products reserves in the USA has been gradually growing, therefore the apprehensions of the market players with respect to a relative deficit of fuels in the winter months have somewhat decreased. Besides, after the oil prices failed to exceed the level of US $ 55 per barrel, and the Federal Reserve System had increased the interest rate by 0.25 basis points, the US hedge funds started to close out long positions, what facilitated a decline in prices. At the same time, meteorologists forecast a warmer winter than last year, therefore there will be required less fuel. By the end of the month, the decline in quotations has slowed down, what was caused by the impact of both technical factors, and the information that the members of the oil cartel might diminish oil production because of the steady growth in US oil reserves, and, therefore, a certain “overproduction.” In November, the situation on the world stock markets remained favorable (see Table 1). In the beginning of the month, the US stock indices went up under the impact of the outcome of the US Presidential elections won by G. Bush and the decline in the world oil prices. The published economic data were mostly negative or moderately positive. Later, at the background of the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics and corporate news, as well as the continuing decline in oil prices, the rise of the indices persisted. The Open Market Committee of the US FRS, as it had been expected, raised the interest rate by 0.25 basis points to 2 per cent per annum. However, later stock indices were characterized by a certain decline at the background of the balance of news shifting to the negative direction and fixation of profits by investors. The major factors behind the “U turn” made by the market were the resumed growth in oil prices, an increase in interest rates, and persistence of the potential for a growth in yields of government bonds.
Dow Jones Industrial Average 150% Nasdaq Composite The RTS Index 130% 110% 90% 70% Summing this section up, it should be noted that over the few last months running, the dynamics of the Russian stock market was primarily determined by internal factors. At the same time, in the situation of prevailing negative corporate news, the favorable business situation on the oil market and world stock markets permit to keep the quotations from a significant decline.
The OAO LUKoil On November 11, the OAO LUKoil Board of Directors determined the redemption price of documentary interest bearing nonconvertible bearer bonds, which the company plans to place prior to the end of this year. The redemption price is set at 100 per cent of the face value of the bonds. It is planned that the amount of the issue will be at RUR 6 billion with maturity in 5 years. The placement of the bonds took place on November 23 on MICEX. In the result of the tender, the coupon rate paid each 182 days was set fort at 7.25 per cent per annum, what corresponds to the effective yield to maturity at 7.38 per cent per annum. Investors submitted 123 bids amounting to RUR 11.3 billion.
On November 19, there was also taken the decision to convene the extraordinary meeting of shareholders in the company, on the agenda of the meeting there was put the issue of the preterm resignation of all members of the Board of Directors of the company and election of a new composition of the Board of Directors, as well as the approval of amendments to the OAO LUKoil bylaws.
The OAO Sibneft On November 5, the company made public information on the attraction of a syndicated bank credit amounting to US $ 160 million at the LIBOR interest rate plus 1.4 per cent. Therefore, this financial loan was the most cheap borrowing in the whole history of the company. The credit is granted for the term of 25 months and guaranteed by oil deliveries. The loan was syndicated by the bank ABN Amro.
The company is planning to utilize the borrowed funds for the refinancing of its debts and working capital.
The OAO Gazprom On November 19, the company presented the non-audited consolidated intermediate abridged statement for the first six months of 2004 prepared in accordance with the International Accounting Standards (IAS) requirements. According to the presented data, in the first six months of 2004, the sales proceeds of the company increased by 12 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year and made RUR 471 474 million. In the six months of the 01.10.21.10.10.11.30.11.20.12.09.01.29.01.18.02.09.03.29.03.18.04.08.05.28.05.17.06.07.07.27.07.16.08.05.09.25.09.15.10.04.11.24.11.year, the amount of net profit declined by RUR 13 797 million, or by 13 per cent in comparison with the figures observed in the respective period of the preceding year and made RUR 89 964 million.
The OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel On November 19, the company presented the consolidated intermediate financial statement for the first six months of 2004 prepared in accordance with the International Accounting Standards (IAS) requirements. According to the presented data, in the first six months of 2004, the cost value of sold metals in terms of US $ increased by 12 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. In the six months of the year, the amount of the declared profit made US $ 889 million, what was practically three times above the figures observed in the respective period of the preceding year.
The extraordinary general meeting of the company’s shareholders, which took place on November 23, 2004, took the decision to approve the amount of interim dividends at RUR 41.4 per share. At the same time, in 2004 the total amount of dividends, including the interim dividends, will correspond to the dividend policies of the company (from 20 per cent to 25 per cent of the net profit calculated in accordance with IAS requirements).
The RAO UES of Russia On November 5, the international ranking agency Standard&Poor`s raised the long term credit ranking of the company from “B” to “B +” and confirmed the ranking of the RAO UES of Russia at “ruA +” according to the Russian scale with the “stable” forecast. According to the agency, the rise of the ranking reflects the improvement of the company’s financial indicators, a gradual improvement of the characteristics of the energy and heat markets at the background of continuing economic development of Russia.
This month, the company also published the financial results of its operations in accordance with the Russian and international financial accounting standards. Thus, on November 1 there was published the financial statement of the RAO UES of Russia group for the first six months of 2004. Over this period, the revenues of the Group derived from its core activities have increased by RUR 41.billion to RUR 342.7 billion. In the first six months of 2004, the net profits of the RAO UES of Russia Group made RUR 15.4 billion, what was by about RUR 1.5 billion below the level registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The decline in the net profit indicator was related to the increase in profits due to minority shareholders. At the same time, on November 15, 2004, there was published the bookkeeping accounting of the OAO RAO UES of Russia for 9 months of 2004. The proceeds of the company made RUR 24.77 billion, what was below the indicator of the respective period of the preceding year. The net profit made RUR 17.10 billion, what was by RUR 2.31 billion below the figures registered in January through September of 2003.
The OAO Rostelekom In November, the company published the results of its financial activities in the first 9 months of 2004 prepared in accordance with the Russian Accounting Standards (RAS) requirements. Over this period of time the proceeds of the OAO Rostelekom made RUR 27.64 billion, thus exceeding the indicator registered in the respective period of 2003 by 33.2 per cent. The net profit of the company made RUR 6.59 billion, what was by 37.8 per cent above the figures observed in the respective period of the preceding year.
The OAO Sberbank of Russia On November 19, 2004, the international ranking agency Fitch raised the ranking of the OAO Sberbank of Russia to the investment level. The decision of the agency followed the similar rise of the sovereign ranking of Russia. The long term ranking of the OAO Sberbank of Russia was raised from the level “BB +” to “BBB-” with the “stable” forecast. The ranking of the issue of the international bonds of the bank was also raised from “BB +” to “BBB-”. Therefore, at present all rankings of the OAO Sberbank of Russia are at the investment level.
The NK YUKOS On November 3, 2004, the Board of Directors of the company took the decision to convene an extraordinary meeting of shareholders on December 20. The agenda of the meeting includes such issues as “Approval of the anti-crisis plan of the company,” “On liquidation of the company,” and “On the bankruptcy of the company.” At the same time, on November 26, the Board of Directors of the NK YUKOS approved the materials for the extraordinary meeting of the company’s shareholders. On the recommendations of the Board of Directors, of the NK YUKOS, from these materials there was removed the item concerning the approval of the anti-crisis program. This recommendation was issued after the announcement of the date of the auction for the sale of the block of shares in the OAO Yuganskneftegaz at the underestimated price, putting forward of new tax claims for year amounting to RUR 170 billion against the company, and because of the absence of the official reaction of the state authorities to the numerous proposals of the company as concerns the settlement of the problem. In this connection, at the extraordinary meeting planned for December 20 the shareholders will discuss only such issues as “On liquidation of the OAO NK YUKOS,” or “On bankruptcy of the OAO NK YUKOS.” Table Dynamics of international stock market indices Change within the Change since the Data as on October 27, 2004 Value month (%)9 beginning of the year (%) 633.44 -4.60% 8.08% RTS (Russia) 10522.23 5.20% 1.08% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 2101.97 6.70% 4.75% Nasdaq Composite (USA) 1182.60 6.44% 6.69% S&P 500 (USA) 4741.50 2.41% 5.13% FTSE 100 (UK) 4151.27 5.73% 3.38% DAX-30 (Germany) 3782.20 2.82% 5.15% CAC-40 (France) 5548.20 3.23% -0.61% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 10833.75 1.33% 0.08% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 24998.00 7.88% 11.37% Bovespa (Brazil) 12076.08 4.85% 48.75% IPC (Mexico) 1773.94 1.96% 19.49% IPSA (Chile) 2028.43 3.54% 13.23% Straits Times (Singapore) 858.12 5.95% 4.49% Seoul Composite (South Korea) 23293.21 3.22% 21.65% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 511.71 8.93% 15.47% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index The Foreign Exchange Market.
After a certain stabilization at the level of RUR 28.76 to RUR 28.78 per US $ observed in the beginning of the month, the exchange rate of the US currency continued to plummet. The dynamics of the exchange rate was determined by the changes in the positions of the US $ on the world market after the US Presidential elections, where there was registered a depreciation of the US currency. Investors were especially troubled by the growth in the deficit of the US balance of trade and the probability of deceleration of the economic growth rates. The activity on the Russian market was at a high level due to the factor of pent up demand relating to the US Presidential elections and the wish of market participants to purchase the currency prior to the November holidays. In the middle of the month, the foreign exchange market reacted in a rather reserved manner to the granting of the investment ranking to Russia. In spite of the downward trend demonstrated by the exchange rate on the day of granting of the investment ranking, the US $ exchange rate practically did not changed by the end As compared with the levels registered on September 28.
of the third week of November. However, in the course of the next week the US $ depreciation with respect to the Ruble continued.
Thus, in the period from October 30 till November 27, the US $ depreciated by RUR 0.49 (by 1.per cent) and made RUR 28.266 per US $. The aggregate volume of trade in the US Dollar at the SELT in the period from November 1 till November 26 made about US $ 30 billion (as compared with approximately US $ 18 billion in the respective period of October). Over this period, the average daily turnover made US $ 1.6 billion, what was also above the respective indicator registered in October.
During the period under review, the highest volume of trade in the US Dollar, about US $ 4.35 billion, was observed on November 4; the lowest volume, US $ 469 million, was observed on November 11.
This November, the Ruble liquidity in the banking sector continued to increase in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding month: in November, the average balances of correspondent accounts of credit organizations with the Bank of Russia made RUR 277.8 billion as compared with RUR 231 billion registered in October of 2004.
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