1370 Monetary Base (billion rubles) Gold and Foreign Currency Reserves (billion dollars) It should be noted that at the same time there was registered a sharp increase in the amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the country (see Fig. 2): by the end of October the amount of these reserves made US $ 107.3 billion (+ 12.6 per cent). As compared with the figures registered on January 1, 2004, when the amount of gold and foreign exchange of Russia made US $ 76.9 billion, this indicator increased by 40 per cent. However, significant transfers of funds to the budgetary system of the RF did not permit this substantial growth in reserves to result in a comparable increase in the monetary base.
Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Sep Sep Sep Mar Mar Mar Nov Nov May May May billion rubles billion dollars 1-7.06.3-9.11.9-15.03.6-12.04.4-10.05.8-14.09.6-12.10.10-16.02.23-29.03.20-26.04.18-24.05.15-21.06.13-19.07.10-16.08.24-31.08.22-28.09.20-26.10.27.01-2.02.24.02-1.03.29.06-5.07.27.07-2.08.On November 26, the Board of Directors of the RF CBR reduced the norm of mandatory sales of export proceeds denominated in foreign exchange from 25 per cent to 10 per cent. It should be reminded that in accordance with the law “On currency regulation and currency control” the mandatory sales of export proceeds denominated in foreign currency should be in force till January 1, 2007. Generally speaking, at present the reduction or even the abolishment of this requirement is meaningless in the economic sense, since the considerable proceeds from exports and rapid US $ depreciation will in any case force companies to sell the bulk of their export forex denominated proceeds. It is also possible that before the end of this year the standards of reservation set forth for certain types of forex operations of capital nature will be also reduced.
The representatives of the Bank of Russia stated that in order to iron out the volatility of exchange rate fluctuations in 2005 the bank is planning to complete the transition to the pegging of the Ruble to a package of currencies, and not only the US dollar as it is the case at present.
P. Trounin Financial Markets On the whole, a stable situation prevailed on the Russian financial market in November, there were observed no significant market fluctuations. The only exception was the Russian stock market, which began to decline by the end of the month. The factor behind the negative dynamics was the flow of depressing corporate news. First of all, it is necessary to note the announcement of the date of the auction for the sale of Yuganskneftegaz, searches in the YUKOS office, the news that a number of YUKOS top managers are wanted by the police, the new tax claims to the company for year 2003, as well as the allegations that foreign managers are ready to leave the company. The delay of the decision on the reform of electrical power engineering and uncertainty with respect to the procedures of sale of power generating companies resulted in a significant decline of the RAO UES shares. The positive news for the market was the fact that the agency Fitch granted Russia the investment ranking.
The Market for Government Securities In November, the situation on the market of the forex denominated public debt remained generally stable. Insignificant ups and downs were observed across different instruments. In the beginning of the month, on the market there was observed a growth in prices in spite of the fact that yields of the US ten year treasury bills have somewhat increased in the expectation of the further rise of the base interest rate by 25 basis points (up to 2 per cent per annum). Moreover, the fact that in the middle of the month the agency Fitch raised the Russian sovereign ranking to the investment level supported the quotations of Russian Eurobonds. At the same time, later in the month the growth in prices stopped at the background of the mounting tensions in Ukraine and declining activity of investors. By the end of the last but one week of the month, there was observed a decline in bond prices on the market.
As on November 26, the yield to maturity of Russian Eurobonds RUS-30 was 6.76 per cent p.a.;
RUS-18: 7.15 per cent p.a. Besides, on the same date the yield to maturity of the Russian Eurobonds was: Minfin bonds, 7th tranche: 5.97 per cent; Minfin bonds, 6th tranche: 4.10 per cent; Minfin bonds, 5th tranche: 5.06 per cent; RUS-07: 5.97 per cent.
In the beginning of the month, on the market of Ruble denominated government debt, there was observed a decline in the yields of the majority of liquid securities. At the same time, the activity of investors on the primary market also remained at a low level. A significant demand was registered only at the auction for additional placement of the OFZ 46002. The growth in prices on the debt market was supported by a high level of liquidity in the banking sector, as well as the continuing decline in the exchange rate of the US currency. Since the middle of the month, the fact that the Russia’s ranking was raised to the investment level alongside with the high level of liquidity and US $ depreciation supported the growth in prices on the market of Ruble denominated government bonds.
Minfin bonds' yields to maturity in September - November, 9.0% Tranche 5 Tranche 6 Tranche 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% FIGURE 2.
Yields to maturity of the Russian Eurobonds with maturity in 2030, 2018 and 2007 in July – November, Доходности к погашению российских евробондов со сроками погашения в 2030, 2018 и 2007 в сентябре-ноябре 2004 года 8.5% 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% USD-2030 USD-2007 USD-01.09.07.09.10.09.15.09.20.09.23.09.28.09.01.10.06.10.12.10.220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.02.11.05.11.22.214.171.124.126.96.36.199.01.09.07.09.10.09.15.09.20.09.23.09.28.09.01.10.06.10.12.10.188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.02.11.05.11.220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.Over the period from November 1 to 26, the aggregate turnover of the secondary GKO OFZ market made about RUR 49.1 billion (approximately RUR 63.8 billion over the respective period in October), while the average daily turnover was at RUR 2.58 billion (RUR 3.86 in October). Therefore, the activity of the market was significantly below the indicators observed in October. In November, there also took place several placements on the primary market of Ruble denominated debt instruments. Thus, on November 3, there took place two auctions for the placement of OFZ FK 27026 and OFZ AD 46002, the nominal value of which made RUR 6.0 billion each. The amount of these placements made RUR 3.2 billion and 5.6 billion respectively, while the weighed average yields of the placements were at 7.32 per cent p. a. for OFZ FK 27026 and 7.8 per cent p. a. for OFZ AD 46002. On November 17, there took place the auctions for the placement of OFZ AD 46003 and OFZ AD 46014, the nominal value of which made RUR 10 billion and 11 billion respectively. The amount of placement made RUR 5.2 billion and RUR 10.4 billion respectively, while the weighed average yields of these placements were at 7.59 per cent and 7.87 per cent p. a.
As on November 26, the amount of the GKO – OFZ market made RUR 562.98 billion at par and RUR 547.6 billion at the market value. The duration of the GKO-OFZ market portfolio was 1739.days.
The Market for Corporate Securities The business situation on the stock market.
On the whole, in November on the Russian stock market there was observed a decline in quotations.
In the beginning of the month, the stock market demonstrated a “sidewise price movement trend.” The only exceptions were YUKOS and Mosenergo stocks, the quotations of which have significantly decreased. The factors behind the decline in YUKOS stocks were new tax claims against the company amounting to US $ 9 billion, what raised the aggregate tax claims to the company up to US $ 14 billion, what was above the total capitalization of the company. The expectations related to the election of the new US President also has an effect on the stock market: as a result, the activity on the market abated. The most important development in the middle of the month was that the international ranking agency Fitch raised the Russia’s credit ranking up to the investment level “BBB-.“ At the same time, this information was able to increase the quotations only for a short time, and the market continued to demonstrate the “sideways trend.” The positive effect was balanced by the news concerning YUKOS:
there was announced the date of the auction for the sale of the Yuganskneftegaz, there were filed tax claims against the YUKOS “daughter” companies, and it was announced that a number of the YUKOS top managers were wanted by the police. Moreover, the market plummeted even further under the impact of the news that the Government not only postponed the date of discussion on the reform of electrical power engineering, but removed the issue of privatization of electrical power generating companies from its agenda, what was the evidence that it was not ready to sell generating capacities.
On the whole, in the period from October 29 till November 26, the RTS index decreased by 4.55 per cent or by 30.23 points in absolute terms. Over the same period, the turnover of the RTS trading amounted to about US $ 321.5 million (about US $ 441.1 million in October), while the average daily turnover at the RTS made about US $ 16.9 million (US $ 23.2 million in October). Therefore, in comparison with the data collected in the preceding month, the activity of investors has significantly declined. The highest and the lowest volumes of trade at the RTS made US $ 38.2 million (on November 18) and US $ 6.2 million (on November 12) as compared with US $ 45.3 million and US $ 12.7 million respectively in October.
Over the last month (from October 27 till November 26), practically all “blue chips” with the exception of Sberbank demonstrated a decline in prices. The leaders in terms of the downward movement of prices were shares in YUKOS, the price of which decreased by 67.6 per cent over the month. The YUKOS stocks were followed by the shares in Sibneft (-24.32 per cent), Tatneft (-14.93 per cent), RAO UES of Russia (-14.12 per cent). Somewhat lower rates of decline were observed as concerns Rostelekom (-7.45 per cent), Nornickel (-5.94 per cent), Mosenergo (-3.80 per cent), as well as Surgutneftegaz and LUKoil (2.94 per cent and 0.79 per cent, respectively).
90 800.The total volume of trading ($) 80 750.The RTS Index 70 700.60 650.50 600.40 550.30 500.20 450.10 400.350.FIGURE 4.
Dynamics of the Russian Blue Chips from October 27 to November 26, 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% Change in price (%) In November, the list of leaders in terms of the volume of turnover at the RTS6 looked as follows:
the shares in the RAO UES of Russia (26.11 per cent), LUKoil (19.83 per cent), and the GMK Norilsk On the classical stock market.
points mln US dollars s 01.10.22.10.13.11.04.12.26.12.21.01.11.02.04.03.26.03.16.04.12.05.02.06.24.06.15.07.05.08.26.08.16.09.07.10.22.214.171.124.Ukos Sibneft Tatneft GMK LUKoil Russia Russia NorNikel RAO UES Mosenergo Sberbank of Rostelekom Surgutneftegas Nickel (9.56 per cent). The aggregate share of transactions with shares in these three issuers made about 55.5 per cent of the total turnover of trade at the RTS.
As on November 26, the top five leaders of the national stock market by capitalization looked as follows7: Surgutneftegaz: US $ 27.74 billion; LUKoil: US $ 26.85 billion; Sibneft: US $ 13.21 billion;
GMK Norilsk Nickel: US $ 12.66 billion, and the RAO UES of Russia: US $ 11.18 billion.
The market for fixed term contracts.
In November, the activity of investors on the RTS market for fixed term contracts (FORTS) somewhat increased in comparison with the October indicators. Thus, in the period from November 1 till November 26, the aggregate volume of trade in futures and options at the RTS amounted to about RUR 28.2 billion (118.5 thousand transactions; 3.2 million contracts), what was somewhat above the respective indicators registered in the preceding month (turnover - RUR 27.6 billion, 115.3 thousand transactions; 3.06 million contracts).
Futures contracts accounted for the greatest percentage of transactions: the volume of trade in these contracts made RUR 25.17 billion (2.86 million contracts, 113.15 thousand transactions) over the period under observation. As before, options were in a much lower demand: the respective amount of trading made about RUR 3.05 million (343.7 thousand contracts, 5.4 thousand transactions). The maximum trading volume was observed on November 19 and made RUR 2.45 billion, while the minimum trading volume (RUR 678 million) was registered on November 1.
Corporate bond market.
Throughout the month, on the market of corporate bonds there was observed a stable situation, where quotations fluctuated insignificantly. After a moderate adjustment occurring in the late October, in the beginning of the month the quotations resumed their growth at the background of further favorable developments related to the banking liquidity situation. The dynamics of yields of US treasury bonds also remained favorable. At the same time, the expectations of the Presidential elections in the USA resulted in a low activity on the market: investors took a “wait and see” position. In the middle of the month, at the background of uncertainty related to the Bank of Russia policy priorities on the foreign exchange market in the situation of the wish to check inflation, the factors of inflation and exchange rate had significantly less affected the dynamics of quotations. In this situation, the external business situation had the major impact on the dynamics of prices, in particular, the negative dynamics of base assets.
Later, at the background of favorable news on the increase in the Russia’s credit ranking, the market of corporate securities attempted to resume the growth. However, the increase in the prices of the most liquid securities proved to be rather insignificant, what could be explained by the shrinking of spreads of securities with respect to the government bonds. In this situation investors paid more attention to primary placements, where price conditions were more favorable.
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