2002* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 239,218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% % 218,0% 284,4% 246,5% 254,8% 299,7% 241,0% 250,2% 2003* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 230,0% 229,2% 265,5% 280,4% 233,2% 240,0% 260,4% 242,6% 248,7% 265,6% 231,0% 247,9% 2004* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX 266,5% 204,4% 238,0% 261,4% 241,0% 243,6% 288,9% 246,0% 288,4% The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).
It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable.
January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.
135% 125% 115% 105% 95% 85% 75% 65% Profit tax VAT 55% 45% 35% * There are no data available as concerns the indebtedness relating to the profit tax and VAT in the period from March of 2004 till July of 2004, therefore, the dynamics of indebtedness over this period presented in the Figure above was calculated proceeding from the linear trend between February of 2004 and August of 2004.
Fig 1. Real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to June of 1999)* Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP).
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% 25,2% 25,4% 25,4% 25,5% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% 31,7% 32,0% 32,1% 32,1% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% 28,4% 29,3% 29,7% 31,1% Budgetary 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% 3,3% 2,7% 2,4% 1,0% deficit/ 14,6% surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 25,6% 24,4% 25,6% 27,4% 27,1% 26,0% 26,1% 25,7% 5,0% 5,0% 5,1% 25,2% Revenues 32,0% 30,3% 31,5% 33,4% 33,6% 32,2% 32,2% 31,6% 0,9% 0,8% 0,7% 31,1% Expenditures 20,7% 25,3% 27,7% 28,8% 28,8% 28,6% 28,7% 28,5% 8,2% 7,8% 7,9% 29,7% Budgetary deficit/ 11,3% 5,0% 3,8% 4,5% 4,7% 3,5% 3,6% 3,1%,7% 3,0% 2,8% 1,4% surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX Taxes* 6,1% 21,8% 27,4% 27,4% 26,6% 27,2% 27,1% 26,4% Revenues 30,6% 28,2% 29,8% 32,9% 32,9% 32,5% 33,1% 32,9% 31,9% Expenditures 18,5% 22,8% 25,4% 27,3% 26,9% 27,0% 27,0% 26,9% 26,0% Budgetary deficit/ 12,1% 5,4% 4,4% 5,6% 6,0% 5,5% 6,1% 6,0% 5,9% surplus The dynamics of real arrears relating to major taxes since January of 2000 are presented in Fig. 1.
The debts related to the payments due to the federal budget made, as concerns VAT, Rub. 276.0 billion by September of 2004, increasing by almost Rub. 20 billion since the beginning of 2004, while the arrears of the profit tax increased by Rub. 0.5 billion and made about Rub. 26.9 billion as on September 1, 2004. On the whole, a gradual decrease in the level of accumulated arrears observed since early 2001 to the second half of 2003 was replaced by the stabilization of the level of accumulated indebtedness as concerns the VAT. In the case of the profit tax, the real accumulated arrears continue to decline; however it practically does not change in the nominal terms.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug The revenues of the consolidated budget in January through September of 2004 made 31.9 per cent of GDP, including tax revenues (without SST) at 26.4 per cent of GDP (see Table 4). The expenditures of the consolidated budget decreased by 2.2 p. p. of GDP in comparison with the figures registered in January through September of 2003 and made 26.0 per cent of GDP. As on October 1, 2004, the surplus of the consolidated budget made 5.9 per cent of GDP, what is by 3.2 p. p. of GDP above the level observed in the respective period of 2003.
Main Developments in the Public Sector The RF Finance Ministry is planning to start the investment of the financial resources of the Stabilization Fund in securities at the end of 2004 and in early 2005. In accordance with the resolution of the Government, the resources of the Stabilization Fund may be invested in securities issued by a number of countries and denominated in three foreign currencies granted the highest reliability ranking “AAA.” At the same time, the RF Ministry of Finance does not exclude the possibility that the resources of the Stabilization Fund may be used for the financing of structural reforms or investment projects, however, only in the case the profitability of such projects is not less than 7 per cent per annum, the rate at which the country services the most expensive part of its foreign debt.
The Bank of Russia should be vested with the management of the invested resources, while the functions of the Finance Ministry will be reduced exclusively to supervision. In this connection there is planned to conclude an agreement between the Bank of Russia and the RF Ministry of Finance as concerns the management of the resources of the Stabilization Fund. At the same time, the RF Finance Ministry deems it unfeasible to transfer resources of the Stabilization Fund in management of private investment banks.
According to certain estimates, the amount of the Stabilization Fund will make Rub. 564 billion by the end of this year, and it will receive Rub. 387 more in the next year. In this connection, there was taken the decision to start to expend the resources of the Stabilization Fund in 2005. It is planned to allocate Rub. 167 for the repayment of the RF foreign debt, while Rub. 74 should be used for the financing of the deficit of the RF Pension Fund. At the same time, as concerns the foreign debt it is planned to primarily repay the portion of the debt, which is serviced at the rate of 7 per cent per annum. Taking into account these expenditures, according to estimates the amount of the RF Stabilization Fund will make Rub. 719.5 billion by the end of 2005.
The RF Ministry of Finance envisages to increase the base oil price from present US $ 20 to US $ 21 per barrel in order to form the Stabilization Fund starting since 2006. It is planned to allocate the resources of the Fund exceeding the base level of Rub. 500 billion exclusively for the repayment (including prescheduled repayment) of the foreign debt. According to the Ministry’s plans, the current expenditures, including the financing of the deficit of the RF Pension Fund, should be financed from the federal budget since 2006.
After the repayment of the most expensive part of the foreign debt (according to estimates in three to four years), it is envisaged to “peg” the base amount of the RF Stabilization Fund to GDP. According to the Finance Ministry estimates, the fund may make from 3.1 per cent to 4.5 per cent of GDP.
The State Duma has approved the version of a law adding to the RF Tax Code the new article “Land Tax” as elaborated by the Conciliatory Commission. This document was approved by the State Duma on October 29, 2004, and rejected by the Federation Council on November 10, 2004, therefore there was formed a conciliatory commission on the issue. The Commission supplemented the law with a provision in accordance with which the scientific organizations (RAS, RAMS, Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Russian Academy of Education, Russian Academy of Architecture and Construction Sciences, Russian Academy of Arts) were exempted from the taxation as concerns the land plots, where the buildings and structures they use for scientific purposes, are located.
The law also stipulates that the tax period should be defined as a calendar year, while reporting periods for taxpayers (both organizations and individual entrepreneurs) should be the 1st quarter, six months, and nine months of a calendar year.
For the purposes of the law, the tax base is defined as the cadastre value of the land plots determined as the taxation objects. According to the law, the tax rates should be set forth by the regulatory and legal acts of representative authorities of municipal entities and should be at or below 0.3 per cent as concerns land plots, where residential housing and engineering facilities of housing and public utilities are located, as well as land plots allotted for part time farming and used for agricultural production. As concerns other land plots, the tax rate is set forth at 1.5 per cent.
S. Ponomarenko Monetary Policy In October, the inflation rates in the RF made 1.1 per cent (as compared with 1 per cent registered in October of the last year). At the same time, the RF Government admitted that the increase in the CPI will most probably exceed the planned 10 per cent and make about 11 per cent to 11.5 per cent. In October, the amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Russia exceeded US $ billion and reached a new absolute maximum of US $ 113.9 billion by the middle of November.
This October, the increase in the consumer prices made 1.1 per cent (1 per cent in October of the last year) and 9.3 per cent since the beginning of the year (9.7 per cent in January through October of the preceding year, see Fig. 1). The most significant growth in prices was observed in the group of nonfood products (1.4 per cent as compared with 1.1 per cent registered in the respective month of 2003). The increase in comparison with the level observed in December of 2003 made 8.7 per cent, what was above the growth registered in the respective period of the preceding year (7.3 per cent). It should be noted that over the seven months of this year, there were observed more moderate rates of growth in consumer prices of food products as compared with the figures registered in the respective periods of preceding years. However, after a relatively insignificant seasonal decline in prices of fruits and vegetables registered in August and September, the increase in the CPI as concerns this group of commodities exceeded the figures observed in the preceding years.
As compared with the figures registered in December of 2003, the most significant rise in prices was observed in the group of paid consumer services (by 15.7 per cent as compared with 20.7 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year). The increase in October made 1.2 per cent (as compared with 0.8 per cent observed in October of 2003).
This year, the prices of nonfood goods also grew at lower rates as compared with the indicators registered last year. Thus, in October the increase made 0.7 per cent (as compared with 1 per cent registered in October of 2003), while in the 10 months of this year the prices of nonfood products grew by 6.3 per cent (by 7.7 per cent in the respective period of the preceding year).
In October, the growth in the Base Consumer Price Index (BCPI) 4 made 1.3 per cent (as compared with 1.4 per cent registered last October). Therefore, since the beginning of the year the increase in the BCPI made 8.1 per cent (8.9 per cent in the respective period of the preceding year).
Therefore, in October of 2004, the rate of growth in the consumer price index continued to exceed the values observed in the respective month of the last year. This excess has been registered since July.
At present, the RF Government admits that the yearly forecast of inflation rates (10 per cent) will not be complied with, and the increase in prices will most probably be at 11 per cent to 11.5 per cent. According to our estimates, in November the CPI level made about 101.3 per cent, while by the end of the year inflation may exceed 11.5 per cent.
In October of this year, the monetary base of the Russian Federation (in the broad definition5) increased by about RUR 100 billion and made RUR 1.93 trillion. As on October 1 of 2004, the monetary base of the Russian Federation (in the broad definition) made RUR 1.83 trillion. Therefore, in October the growth in the monetary base exceeded 5.6 per cent. It should be reminded that in September there was observed an insignificant increase in the monetary base (+ 0.1 per cent), while in July and August the monetary base contracted. In comparison with the indicator’s value observed as on January 1, 2004, the amount of the monetary base increased by only 0.8 per cent. in the respective period of the preceding year, the growth made 21.7 per cent. Below, the dynamics of the monetary base will be analyzed across its components.
The amount of cash in circulation (as adjusted for cash balances of crediting organizations) made RUR 1.39 trillion as on November 1 (+ 14.3 per cent as compared with the level registered on October 1 of this year). On the same date, the amount of accounts of crediting organizations with the Central Bank of Russia made RUR 239.5 billion (+ 7.2 per cent), the amount of mandatory reserves were at The Base Consumer Price Index (BCPI) is an indicator reflecting the inflation rate on the consumer market. It leaves out of account the seasonal (prices of fruits and vegetables) and administrative (tariffs on regulated types of services etc.) factors, calculated by the Statistics Service of the RF.
The RF Monetary Base in broad definition includes cash in circulation, the Ruble denominated funds in mandatory reserves relating to the borrowings of credit organizations, and funds in credit organizations’ correspondent accounts and commercial banks' deposits with the Bank of Russia.
RUR 117.4 billion (+ 1.1 per cent), the amount of banks’ deposits in the Bank of Russia made RUR 86.7 billion (+ 91 per cent), the amount of the Central Bank’s liabilities related to the reverse repurchase of securities was at RUR 68.2 billion (+ 0.3 per cent), and the funds transferred to the Bank of Russia as the reserves related to foreign exchange operations made RUR 3.6 billion (+ 157 per cent).
Therefore, in October there was observed a growth across all components of the monetary base, i.e.
there was observed an increase in money supply.
The Growth Rate of the CPI in 2002 - 2004 (% per month).
3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% Changes in the Monetary Base and in the Gold and Foreign Currency Reserves in 2003 - 2004.
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