of January 1, 2000) Indebtedness, Rub. billion (in prices as M2, Rub. billion (in prices as of January 1, 2000) It seems that the factors, which prevented a surge in payment arrears in spite of a growth in the number of loss making enterprises and real Ruble appreciation, include, first, normalization of state finances, expansion of bank crediting, positive shifts in the area of contract law, in particular, bankruptcy laws.
Further developments in the sphere of payments will depend on the situation in the real sector of the economy and the stand of authorities primarily determined by the budget revenue situation. In the case the growth in the number of loss making enterprises continues, what is to a certain extent facilitated by a further real Ruble appreciation, there is a rather high probability of emergence of a new wave of increase in indebtedness. However, a surge in indebtedness may occur only under certain circumstances, i.e. in the situation where non-market relations develop due to ineffective enforcement of contract law. In such a situation, payment arrears are manifestation of ineffective, non-competitive production. Massive payment arrears switch off market mechanisms squeezing out loss making enterprises. Taking into account the positive experience accumulated in the last few years, a new large scale non-payment crisis becomes less and less probable, however, this danger can not be absolutely excluded in the case unfavorable economic trends prevail.
Investment in the Real Sector In January through October of 2002, the positive dynamics of investment in the real sector of the economy persisted. The amount of investment in fixed assets from all sources of financing made Rub. 1234.6 billion, what is by 2.5 % above the level registered in the respective period of the preceding year. As compared with the figures observed in January through September of 2001, the share of investment in fixed assets in GDP decreased by 2.1 p. p. and made 13.6 %. In the first half-year of 2002, The lesser intensity of investment inflows in the real sector of the economy in 2002 was observed at the background of changes in the sectoral structure of investment. The share of investment in fixed assets of manufacturing industries has stabilized at about the level observed in the preceding year and made 49.2 %.
The proportions of investment across the sectors of the economy was practically completely determined by the decrease of investment in industry and transport. As compared with the figures registered in January through October of 2001, the share of investment in industry decreased by 0.7 p. p., while the share of investment aimed at the development of transport fell by 3.2 p. p. At the same time, the share of investment expenditures for communications grew by 1.2 p. p., agriculture – by 0.5 p. p. and trade – by 0.3 p. p.
This year, the decreasing share of fuel complex in the total amount of investment in fixed assets in the economy on the whole and in industry is a significant factor behind the nature and dynamics of investment demand. Investment in the fuel complex made 26.1 % of the total amount of investment in fixed assets of all sectors of the economy in January through September of 2002 decreasing by 1.3 p. p. in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. Taking into account the fact that transport, communications, and the fuel complex account for almost of the total amount of investment in the national economy, it becomes evident that the financial and economic standing of these industries has the most strong impact on the dynamics and structure of investment demand.
Fuel industry maintains its dominating position in the structure of investment, its share makes 49.8 % of the total investment in industry; at the same time, almost 1/3 of investment flows in oil extracting industry.
Over the last two years, the intensive expansion of demand for investment goods on the part of the oil and natural gas complex was a powerful factor behind the increase in business activity in mechanical engineering and the industry of construction materials. In 2002, as a result of cumulative impact of external and internal factors, profitability of production in oil industry fell almost twofold in comparison with the preceding period, what negatively affected the level of investment demand. Taking into account the traditionally high concentration of profits in the export oriented industries of the oil and raw materials sectors and the lack of mechanisms of inter-sectoral flow of capitals, it may be hardly expected that the rate of investment would increase and radical changes would occur in the nature of the reproduction of fixed capital. Fuel industry demonstrated deteriorating indicators of the reproduction of fixed capital at the background of decelerating rates of investment in this sector. In January through September of 2002, in fuel industry the commissioning of drilling wells decreased by 18.1 %, production drilling contracted by 17.7 %, and surveying drilling fell by 37.9 %. The decrease of investment in oil processing industries resulted in deteriorating technical and economic indicators of production. The output of oil products produced with the use of progressive processing technologies has decreased by 2.9 %, while the degree of processing of crude oil decreased from 71.1 % registered in January through September of 2001 to 70.3 % observed in the respective period of this year.
Decelerating rates of investment in industry observed in January through September of 2002 took place at the background of persisting sectoral proportions registered in the preceding year. The share of investment in fixed assets of natural gas industry remained at 5.0 %, chemistry and petro-chemistry – at 1.8 %, non-ferrous metallurgy – at 3.2 %, and light industry – at 0.2 %. In spite of the fact that in 2001 through 2002 there was observed an increase in the share of investment in the processing sector of the economy, it shall be taken into account that the share of investment intensive industries account for 4.8 % and industries of the consumer complex account for 4.6 % of the total investment in industry. Under the existing age, technology, and reproduction structure of fixed assets, low rates of investment in manufacturing industries are a factor slowing down the rates of economic growth.
Figure. Changes in the structure of investment across industries in January through September of 2002, in % of the respective period of the preceding year 1,0,-0,--1,--2,2001-2000 2002-Deteriorating financial standing of enterprises in the real sector of the economy is a major factor initiating a slowdown of rates of investment activity.
Since the beginning of the year, the dynamics of balanced profits have been characterized by the gradual deceleration of the quarterly rates of decrease in balanced profits in comparison with the respective periods of 2001. The industries of the service sector had a positive impact on the character of formation of balanced profits in the economy. In January through September of 2002, the amounts of balanced profits were above the respective indicators observed in the preceding year: in communications - by 33.0 %, in transport – by 20.8 %, and in trade and public catering – by 8.7 %. However, the increase in profits registered in the service sector did not compensate for the negative impact of decline in profits observed in industry (by 37.1 %) and construction (by 36.7 %). As a result, the balanced financial results of enterprises and organizations across all sectors of the economy made 83.1 % in January through September of 2002 as compared with the level registered in January through September of 2001.
As the financial results of operations of industrial organizations deteriorated in January through September of 2002, their share in the sectoral structure of the balanced profits of the economy decreased by 14.1 p. p. in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year and made 39.8 %. The deterioration of this indicator across the industry at large occurred at the expense of export oriented industries – by 10.6 p. p., while fuel industry accounted for 6.4 % of decrease in this indicator.
The decrease in the profitability of production in the fuel and metallurgical complexes forming more than of the total investment demand in the national economy has negatively affected the business activity in construction. In the first six months of 2002, the share of profits in the structure of the sources of financing Forestry Food industry Power engineering Ferrous metallurgy Oil extraction Mechanical engineering Industry Construction materials Fuel industry Oil processing of investment in fixed assets decreased by 2.5 p. p. in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2001. The situation is aggravated by the impact of such factors, as high costs of commercial credits, insignificant amounts of financing from budgetary funds and other financial institutions, high level of investment risks due to insufficient legal protection of domestic and foreign investors, and the lack of effective mechanisms ensuring transformation of household savings into investment.
In this situation, it is rather problematic to expect that investment recovery, which in essence is the major potential source of growth, will persist.
O. Izryadnova The Real Sector: Factors and Trends According to the preliminary data, in January through September of 2002, GDP made Rub. 7896 billion and increased by 4.0 % in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The dynamic expansion of final demand has positively affected the dynamics of GDP and output of base sectors of the economy since the 2nd quarter of this year. According to the estimates of the Ministry for Economic Development, on the whole in 2002 GDP will make about Rub. 10950 billion and increase by 4.% as compared with the preceding year figures.
A growth in output is observed across practically all industries and sectors of the economy since February of 2000. The output of products and services of the base economic sectors increased by 3.8 % as compared with the figures observed in January through October of 2002. While the output of manufactured goods grew by 4.0 % in January through October of 2002, the production of construction industry increased by 2.5 %.
On the whole, service sectors developed more dynamically. In January through October of 2002, the retail trade turnover grew by 9.0 %, freight turnover – by 5.1 %, and communication services – by 12.0 % as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year.
An analysis of changes in the structure of industry reveals that practically all growth in production was generated by the outpacing development of industries oriented towards the domestic market. The index of production related to the consumer complex made 106.5 % in January through October of 2002. As concerns the branches of investment complex, a rather significant slowdown in the rates of growth was a characteristic feature of this year. On the whole, in January through October of 2002, the index of production related to the investment made 103.3 % as compared to the figures registered in January through September of 2001. In January through October of 2002, the output of mechanical engineering increased by 3.1 % as compared with 8.0 % and 17.5 % registered in 2001 and 2000 respectively. While in 2000 and 2001 the characteristic features of the economy were outpacing rates of growth of investment sectors as compared with export oriented sectors and fuel industry, in 2002 the situation is changing.
Therefore, in 2002 there was observed a more strong impact of export oriented sector of the economy, and as a result, dependence of the Russia’s economy on the business situation on world raw materials markets.
As the external business situation gradually improved, the rates of growth in production of export oriented industries reached 105.5 % in January through October of 2002. Non-ferrous metallurgy (108.9 %) and fuel industry (106.6 %) demonstrated the most rapid rates of growth among the industries of this complex.
A specific feature of the 3rd quarter of 2002 was favorable shifts in the world business situation, which stimulated export and supported the economy at large. However, even in this case the growing influence of competing imports significantly affected the dynamics of development of domestically oriented industries.
While the total industrial output increased by 3.7 % in comparison with the figures registered in January through September of 2001, imports grew by 12.1 %. The intensive growth in imports has most significantly affected the dynamics of development of the investment complex. While the output of mechanical engineering increased by 3.1 % in comparison with the figures observed in January through September of 2001, import of machinery, equipment, and vehicles grew by 20.5 %, at the same time, the share of imported equipment in the structure of investment in machinery and equipment made almost one fourth.
Stagnation of production of light industry was accompanied by an increase in import of jersey and textile wear, which made 67.1 % in comparison with the figures registered in January through August of 2001, while import of footwear increased by 28.2 %. A gap between the rates of growth in domestic production of consumer goods and imports resulted in a shift of the situation on the retail market. According to estimates, the share of imports in the structure of commodity resources of non-food products has increased by 3.3 percentage points since the beginning of the year. At the same time, it is necessary to stress that while noncompeting imports make a significant share of the structure of commodity resources of retail trade in food products, imports squeeze out domestic products in the sphere of retail trade in non-food items. Further development of these trends makes problematic expansion of domestic production of consumer goods. In this connection, it seems feasible and timely to take a decision on the reduction of import duties on certain types of technological equipment in order to increase competitiveness of goods made in Russia.
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