OAO Rostelecom The telecom operator published its financial report for the 9 months of the current year. The revenues fell 1 percent down to US$ 486.2 million, EBITDA grew 3 percent to US$ 315 million. Owing to a sale of percent of Sovintel shares, net profits grew more than half up to US$ 156.9 million Table Dynamics of Foreign Stock Indexes As of 23 October 2002 Value Change During the Change Since the Month (%) Beginning of the Year RTS (Russia) 353.24 -1.51 % 35.84% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 8804.84 4.86% -13.14% NASDAQ Composite (USA) 1486.74 10.45% -26.09% S&P 500 (USA) 930.55 5.06% -19.85% FTSE 100 (UK) 4175.2 3.35% -20.36% DAX-30 (Germany) 3320.88 5.33% -35.64% As of 23 October 2002 Value Change During the Change Since the Month (%) Beginning of the Year CAC-40 (France) 3305.78 4.94% -28.52% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 5160.8 4.28% -19.59% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 8772.56 1.53% -16.79% Bovespa (Brazil) 10289 1.19% -24.22% IPC (Mexico) 5818.43 -2.50% 010.03% IPSA (Chile) 81.70 0.84% -25.11% Strait Times (Singapore) 1434.61 2.72% -12.45% Seoul Composite (Korea) 692,87 5.15% -0.12% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 13501.38 31.70% -2.04% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index 297.334 5.01% -6.32% Foreign Exchange Market In October 2002 no significant fluctuations were observed in the RF foreign exchange market. The exchange rate passed the RUR/ US$ 31.80 mark. The overall growth in the US Dollar exchange rate was 0.percent (from RUR/ US$ 31.7408 at 31 October to RUR/ US$ 31.8424 at 30 November 2002). According to preliminary estimates, the volume of trade in US Dollar in the SELT amounted to circa RUR 180 billion. In the previous bulletin we noted already that this value could lose its analytical sense once a new procedure for the mandatory sales of a part of foreign currency export revenues by legal entities is introduced by the Central Bank on 1 December 2002. (This document entitles banks to conduct mandatory sales of foreign currency over the counter). Facing a total loss of its monopoly, the MICEX decided in November to cut the commission for currency deals in the SELT dramatically. The fee for deals with US Dollars was cut from 0.06 percent down to 0.002 percent, i.e. one thirtieth of the previous value. The Exchange also canceled the mandatory cash deposit that was previously required to participate in the trade: now it is necessary to place with the Exchange only 1.5 percent of the plan transaction volume.
Figure 6. The official rur/ us$ exchange rate in 31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,30,In November, due to the influence of the negative news on US economy, the Euro rate exceeded the parity mark for a certain period of time. However, the trend towards rise in the price of the European currency did not hold, and in the end of November Euro again became slightly cheaper that the US Dollar. Obviously, it can be assumed that in the near future the exchange rate will fluctuate in the range of US$/ Euro 0.99 - 1.01.
рублей/доллар 01.01.18.01.01.02.15.02.02.03.19.03.02.04.16.04.28.04.18.05.31.05.15.06.29.06.13.07.27.07.10.08.24.08.07.09.21.09.05.10.19.10.02.11.19.11.Figure 7. Dynamics of Euro/Dollar Exchange rate on the world forex markets 1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,The changes in RUR/ Euro exchange rate followed the trends in the global market. The maximum value in November was RUR/ Euro 32.2268 (the historical high) on 11 November 2002, the lowest value was RUR/ Euro 31.3666 on 01 November 2002. The official RUR/ Euro exchange rate grew from RUR/ Euro 31.on 31 October 2002 to RUR/Euro 31.6736 on 30 November 2002, or 1.59 percent.
Figure 8. Dynamics of the official exchange rate of euro in 32, 31, 31, 30, 30, 29, 29, 28, 28, 27, 27, 26, 26, долларов/евро 01.01.08.01.15.01.22.01.29.01.05.02.12.02.19.02.26.02.05.03.12.03.19.03.26.03.02.04.09.04.16.04.23.04.30.04.07.05.14.05.21.05.28.05.04.06.11.06.18.06.25.06.02.07.09.07.16.07.23.07.30.07.06.08.13.08.20.08.27.08.03.09.10.09.17.09.24.09.01.10.08.10.15.10.126.96.36.199.05.11.12.11.19.11.рублей/евро 01.01.17.01.30.01.12.02.23.02.12.03.23.03.05.04.18.04.30.04.18.05.30.05.12.06.26.06.09.07.20.07.02.08.15.08.28.08.10.09.21.09.04.10.188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.Table Financial Market Indicators Month July August September October November Monthly inflation rate 0,7% 0,1% 0,4% 1,1% 1.5% Inflation rate annualized on the basis of this month's 8,7% 1,2% 4.9% 14.0% 19.6% trend CB RF refinancing rate 23% 21% 21% 21% 21% Annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues 14,42% 14,45% 15.25% 14.98% 14.1% Volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ mar- 9.34 6,95 15.97 18.73 ket for the month (RUR billion) Yield to maturity on Minfin bonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 4th tranche 6,27% 5,6% 5.46% 4.86% 4.74% 5th tranche 11,19% 10,88% 10.13% 8.45% 7.72% 6th tranche 10,3% 9,52% 8.84% 7.04% 6.70% 7th tranche 11,03% 11,05% 10.31% 9.13% 8.55% 8th tranche 9,72% 9,81% 9.24% 7.68% 6.71% INSTAR-MIACR rate (% p.a.) on interbank loans at the end of the month:
Overnight 29,06% 5,74% 17.79% 14.89% 10% One week 8,08% 8,25% 2.85% 5.59% 10% Official RUR / US$ exchange rate at the end of the 31,4401 31,5673 31,6358 31.7408 31.month Official RUR / Euro exchange rate at the end of the 30,8019 31,0938 30,9082 31.1790 31.month Average annualized growth in RUR / US$ exchange -0,02% 0,4% 0.2% 0.33% 0.32% rate Average annualized growth in RUR / Euro exchange -0,89% 0,72% -0.6% 0.88% 1.59% rate Volume of trading at the stock market in the RTS for 407 276,04 304.19 360.21 the month (US$ million) Value of RTS Index at the end of the month 326,23 332.9 334.06 358.65 Change in value of RTS Index during the month (%) -9,22% 2,7% 0.35% 7.36% 0% * Estimates D. Levchenko, D. Skripkin Enterprises and organizations: the state of payments The trends observed in the sphere of payments in January through August of 2002 may be characterized as positive. The accumulated amount of outstanding indebtedness in the economy continued to decline both in real (share of GDP) and nominal terms (see Figures 1 and 2).
Figure 1. The level of accumulated non-payments (as the share of GDP): dynamics in 1993 through 2002.
Aggregate outstanding indebtedness of enterprises and organizations, in % of GDP - The same for four sectors Outstanding creditor indebtedness, in % of GDP - The same for four sectors Outstanding indebtedness to suppliers, in % of GDP - The same for four sectors 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002* * - first six months of 2002.
Source: RF Goskomstat, calculations of the authors.
Note: the aggregate outstanding indebtedness of enterprises and organizations includes outstanding creditor indebtedness and the outstanding debts to the banking system. The creditor indebtedness is calculated as the sum of debts to suppliers, budgets of all levels, and extra-budgetary funds, indebtedness relating to wages and salaries, and debts to other creditors. Prior to 1998, the RF Goskomstat published payment arrears statistics for four sectors of the economy (industry, agriculture, transport, construction). Since 1998, the aggregate indebtedness in the economy has been calculated across all sectors of the economy.
Figure 2. Dynamics of outstanding creditor and debtor indebtedness across all sectors of the economy and branches of industry, agriculture, construction, and transport (4 sectors) in current prices.
Outstanding creditor indebtedness of all sectors Outstanding creditor indebtedness of four sectors Outstanding creditor indebtedness of all sectors Outstanding creditor indebtedness of four sectors 2 1 1 1 1 1 ма ма ма ма ма ма ма ма ма 0 се се се се се се се се се се р. р. р. р. р. р. р. р. р.
In the first 8 months of 2002, the amount of outstanding creditor indebtedness declined by 5.2 % (Rub. billion) in comparison with the accumulated level, while outstanding debtor indebtedness decreased by 6.5 % (Rub. 66 billion) in January through July of 2002. In the first 8 months of 2002, the outstanding creditor indebtedness decreased by 5.2 % (Rub. 81 billion) in comparison with the accumulated level, while the outstanding debtor indebtedness declined by 6.5 % (Rub. 66 billion) in January through July of 2002. In the respective periods of 2001, there was observed a growth in the amounts of outstanding creditor and debtor indebtedness (7.2 % and 16.5 % respectively). The major decline in the outstanding creditor indebtedness occurred in January of this year and made Rub. 113 billion. It shall be noted that old debts (indebtedness overdue more than three months) accounted for 94 % (Rub. 106 billion) of decrease in indebtedness. Taking into account small amounts of debts written off to financial results (see Table 1), the decline in payment arrears is related to the restructuring and direct repayment of debts. The largest amounts of decline were registered in indebtedness to suppliers and extra-budgetary funds (Rub. 73 billion and Rub. 41 billion, or 9.6 % and 13.% of the accumulated level respectively). The indebtedness to the budget decreased by Rub. 14 billion (4.% of the accumulated level), while the overall amount of other types of indebtedness increased by Rub. billion (11.7 % of the accumulated level).
Energy monopolies played a significant role in the decrease in payment arrears as they significantly diminished the use of all types of non-cash payments for shipped and purchased products. Even a greater decrease in barter operations in favor of offsets may be singled out among major changes in the structure of payments for shipped products of monopolistic enterprises6. In 2002, the share of cash payments increased and was maintained at about 80 % (see Fig. 3).
According to RF Government Resolution No. 10 of January 6, 1998, the RF Goskomstat conducts statistical monitoring of payments of largest Russia’s taxpayers: “UES of Russia,” “Gazprom,” “Aeroflot – Russian international airlines,” organizations of the federal railroad transport, and industrial monopolistic organizations.
Rub. billion Table 1.
Amounts of outstanding indebtedness of economic agents written off to financial results.
Creditor indebtedness written off to profit Дебиторская задолженность, списанная на убы ток in % of annual in % of annual in % to overdue in % of overdue In c re m e nt in Increm e nt in creditor debtor overdue creditor overdue To ta l, R u b indebtedness Total, Rub indebtedness indebtedness creditor m il m il.
Figure 3. Monopolistic enterprises: the structure of payments for shipped products 100% Cash payments 80% Promissory notes 60% Direct exchange of goods (barter) 40% Offsets 20% Other types of payments ян ма ма и и и се но ян ма ма се но ян ма ма 0% ю ю в. р. й. н. я. в. р. й. н. я. в. р. й. ю л. л. л.
At the same time, certain new trends are alarming. First of all, these concerns are related to the factors of growth in outstanding indebtedness revealed by economic examinations7. For instance, in 2002 there was observed a stable increase in the share of loss making enterprises in the economy (see Fig. 4). The share of loss making enterprises in the economy increased by 7 % to 10 % across the sectors of economy in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year. In July of 2002, the share of loss making enterprises in industry made 46.5 % (as compared with 38.6 % registered in July of 2001), while in construction this indicator made 45.9 % (39 % in July of 2001), and in transport – 54.5 % (45.8 % in July of 2001).
According to calculations8, ineffectiveness, financial insolvency of enterprises was a key factor behind the generation of payment arrears in the economy, which indicated the existence of a “channel of financing of bad firms.” This relationship was most characteristic for the period prior to 1998. After the crisis, the share See, for instance, R. Entov, A. Radygin, V. Mau, S. Sinelnikov-Murylev et al. “Razvitiye rossiyskogo finansovogo rynka i novye instrumenty privlecheniya investitsiy (Development of the Russian financial market and new instruments attracting investment),” IET, 1998, pp. 96 – 149; O. Lugovoi, D. Semenov “Neplatezhi v Rossiyskoi Federatsii (Nonpayments in the Russian Federation),” IET – USAID, 2000; R.Entov, L.Lederman, O.Lugovoi, A.Zolotareva ‘Nonpayments in the Russian Economy and Regions’, CEPRA, 2001.
Period of ineffective enterprises constantly decreased, and the statistical significance of this factor diminished. Although no increase in payment arrears has been registered, this danger exists.
Figure 4. Changes in the share of loss making enterprises across industries (seasonal differences to respective periods of the preceding year) Industry Transport Construction ---ян ма ян ма ян ма ян ма ян ма ян ма ян ма ян ма се се се се се се се в.9 й.9 в.9 й.9 в.9 й.9 в.9 й.9 в.9 й.9 в.0 й.0 в.0 й.0 в.0 й.н.9 н.9 н.9 н.9 н.9 н.0 н.5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 5 6 7 8 9 0 Another important factor for the settlement of the problem of payment arrears is expansion of bank crediting. Transition to cash types of payments resulted in a growing cash demand, therefore, the money supply steadily increased over the last few years (see Fig. 5).
Figure 5. Dynamics of increment in outstanding indebtedness and money supply (M2) Increments in outstanding creditor indebtedness for 4 sectors (in real terms) Money supply M2 (in real terms) 200 --100 се ма се ма се ма се ма се ма се ма се ма се ма се ма се н. р. н. р. н. р. н. р. н. р. н. р. н. р. н. р. н. р. н.
93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 Source: RF Goskomstat, CB of RF, calculations of the authors.
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