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% 8-14.4.3-9.6.1-7.7.6-12.5.11-17.2.11-17.3.25-31.3.22-28.4.20-26.5.17-23.6.15-21.7.25.2-3.3.30.7-5.8.27.8-2.9.14-20.01.13.8-19.8.28.01-3.02.08.10-14.10.22.10-28.10.05.10-11.11.31.12.01-6.1.10.9.02-16.9.24.9.02-30.9.case of exporting it. The CB RF is also assigned a right to demand that residents pass a preliminary registration when opening currency accounts abroad. The upper limit of the norm for the mandatory currency earnings sale was established at the level of 30 percent. It is assumed that all the limitations, with the exception of the 100-percent repatriation, will be canceled starting with 01 January 2007.

Figure 2. Dynamics of the Monetary Base and Gold and Currency Reserves in 870 48,47,47,46,46,45,45,44,800 44,43,43,42,42,41,41,40,730 40,39,39,38,38,37,37,36,660 36, (. .) (. $) D. Levchenko Financial Markets The Market for Government Securities In November 2002 the trend towards a decrease in yields that was observed in the Russian market for foreign debt during previous months, continued. The main determining factor was the expected decision by the US Federal Reserve to lower the refinance rates, which in a natural way influenced the global level of interest rates. It is worth reminding that on 06 November 2002 the federal funds rate was lowered by 50 basis points (0.5 percent) down to 1.25 percent. Argentina's default on payments to the World Bank did not have any serious impact on the markets.

The announcement by the Russian Ministry of Finance of a restructuring of the former USSR's commercial debt worth US$ 1.1 billion into Eurobonds with maturities in 2010 and 2030 was the most important occurrence in the Russian securities market.

The decrease in yields did not include short-term securities. On considering the trend dynamics, one could see that medium- and long-term securities regarded as an object of short-term investments brought impressive earnings to investors in November.

In November, the annualized yield of securities in the market of domestic debt was 14.1 percent. Based on preliminary data, the estimated turnover was circa RUR 13 billion, which is slightly lower than last month's figures (RUR 18.7 billion).

. . 8-14.4.3-9.6.1-7.7.6-12.5.11-17.2.11-17.3.25-31.3.22-28.4.20-26.5.17-23.6.15-21.7.25.2-3.3.30.7-5.8.27.8-2.9.14-20.01.13.8-19.8.28.01-3.02.08.10-14.10.22.10-28.10.05.11-11.11.31.12.01-6.1.10.9.02-16.9.24.9.02-30.9.Figure 1. Yield to Maturity of Minfin Bonds in May to November 2002.

11,0% 10,5% 10,0% 9,5% 9,0% 8,5% 8,0% 7,5% 7,0% 6,5% 6,0% 5,5% 5,0% 4,5% 4,0% 3,5% USD-2003 USD-2007 USD-Figure 2 Yield to Maturity of Russian Eurobonds with Maturities in 2003, 2007 and 2008 in May to November 11,5% 11,0% 10,5% 10,0% 9,5% 9,0% 8,5% 8,0% 7,5% 7,0% 6,5% 6,0% 5,5% 5,0% 4,5% 4 5 6 The Market for Corporate Securities In November the Russian stock market was fairly quiet. On the one hand, corporate news resulted in positive changes in the prices of Russian securities; on the other hand, the external conditions remained adverse.

The default by the Argentine government on the debt to the World Bank made investors treat the market of 07.05.16.05.23.05.30.05.10.06.18.06.25.06.02.07.09.07.17.07.24.07.31.07.07.08.14.08.21.08.28.08.04.09.11.09.18.09.25.09.02.10.09.10.16.10.23.10.30.10.06.11.15.11.22.11.07.05.16.05.23.05.30.05.10.06.18.06.25.06.02.07.09.07.15.07.22.07.29.07.05.08.12.08.19.08.26.08.02.09.09.09.16.09.23.09.30.09.07.10.14.10.21.10.28.10.04.11.13.11.20.11.the developing economies with greater caution. Despite the dramatic events in South America and if there are no severe shocks, in December one may expect a "New-Year rally" in the Russian market.

The Stock Market Figure 3.

($) In November the RTS index remained practically unchanged (-0.047 percent), reaching 358.48 points on 28 November. The trade volume reached US$ 255 million, which is somewhat lower than in the previous month; the average daily volume was US$ 13.4 million.

One could distinguish three periods in the RTS index dynamics. The index decreased from the beginning of the month till 11 November, reaching the lowest monthly mark of 346.52 points. This trend in the behavior of the stock market indicator was brought about by the fact that many market participants chose to close their "long" positions before the holidays because during the holidays significant events could occur on international markets (i.e., a change in the interest rates). Thereafter, the stock market indicator hovered at the level of 350 points; from 20 till 28 November the index regained the positions it had lost earlier during the month, reaching the level of late October. The lowest trade volume was observed on 10 November (US$ 6.million), the greatest volume was observed on 14 November (US$ 22 million).

. 1 20 29 17 15 26 28 24 27 13 26 27 27 23 25 Figure 4. The dynamics of russian blue chip quotations from 31 october till 28 november 31 2002 . 28 2002 .

15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% (%) Securities of energy and telecom companies were in especially popular demand with investors in November. As 28 November, the shares of RAO UES were leading in growth (12.05 percent), followed by the securities of Rostelecom (9.18 percent), Sberbank (7.28 percent) and MMC Norilsk Nickel (3.88 percent). Lesser growth was demonstrated by the shares of Mosenergo (3.73 percent), Lukoil (2.32 percent), Gazprom (1.percent) and Sibneft (1.01 percent). The securities of large Russian oil companies were falling in price:

Yukos, -3.30 percent; Tatneft: -6.41 percent, and Surgutneftegas: -8.82 percent. The distressing trends of the Russian oil industry resulted from a drop in world oil prices. Lukoil demonstrated greater growth results as compared with other oil companies due to the sale of a part of its Caspian assets (which include a 10 percent block of shares in the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli Project). This transaction could bring circa US$ 1 per share to Lukoil's shareholders; it is also a significant step towards restructuring the company. A rise in quotations of Norilsk Nickel and Rostelecom was also brought about by operations with assets. An increase in financial indicators (as compared with plan figures) resulted in growing investor interest towards the shares of RAO UES and Sberbank (see Corporate News). Ordinary shares of RAO UES accounted for the greatest proportion (29.64 percent) in the total volume of RTS turnover during the period under review (as compared to 29.22 percent in the previous month). The proportion of ordinary Lukoil shares fell to 17.97 percent (23.percent); Surgutneftegas: 13.12 percent (11.03 percent); Yukos: 10.51 percent (12.02 percent); the proportion of MMC Norilsk Nickel grew by more than 30 percent, reaching 6.31 percent (4.68 percent). The aggregate proportion of five most liquid shares in the overall RTS turnover somewhat diminished, reaching 77.percent (October: 80.79 percent). During the period from 01 till 28 November 2002 the volume of trade in Gazprom shares through RTS terminals grew 53 percent in comparison to the previous period, reaching US$ 83.6 million (circa 103.5 million shares); a total of 11.8 thousand deals were concluded with the securities of the gas concern.

In November the list of the top five Russian companies by capitalization remained unchanged (RTS data):

Yukos, US$ 20.2 billion; Gazprom, US$ 19.2 billion; Lukoil, US$ 14.2 billion; Surgutneftegas, US$ 11.billion; Sibneft, US$ 9.5 billion The Market for Term Contracts The FORTS market reached new frontiers in November. On 26 November the trade volume was RUR 795.47 million (188.5 thousand contracts, 3,785 deals), which is the highest value in the entire history of this market. On the whole, during the period from 01 till 28 November the trade volume in the market for term contracts increased more than 20 percent as compared to last year's respective period, reaching RUR 9.billion (50.7 thousand deals, 2.34 million contracts). Futures contracts accounted for RUR 9.47 billion (48.thousand deals, 2.3 million contracts) in this amount. The average daily turnover was RUR 510 million, the number of deals: 2,670.

International News 240% Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq Composite 220% 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% The Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve System announced a reduction of the refinance rate by 50 basis points (the forecast was 25 basis points). Thus the rate reached 1.25 percent, which is the lowest value in 40 years. On the one hand, the management of the US Fed admitted that its previous measures aimed at helping the economy out of the recession were not efficient enough; on the other hand, it demonstrated it was bound to try and take the economy out of the crisis in any possible way. The US stock market reacted by increasing stock indicators because a lower refinance rate would lead to greater consumption and investment volumes. US indices were also influenced by good reports presented by HP and General Electric. As at 22 November the DJIA index grew almost 5 percent and NASDAQ more than 10 percent.

After five consequent reductions, in October the Leading Index calculated by the Conference Board remained unchanged.

Figure 5. Price for brent crude oil, usa (nymex) Brent, (NYMEX) Constant transgressions by OPEC countries of the established quotas and a peaceful solution of the Iraq issue resulted in a significant reduction (down to the June level) of prices for the black gold. The minimum .

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price of the Brent mix (US$ 23.06 per barrel) was observed on 15 November (-9.5 percent as compared to October). Thereafter the prices grew again, and as at 22 November the total reduction of the price of a barrel was 4.8 percent.

According to the RF Ministry of Energy, oil production rates in Russia are growing. During the first eight months of the current year production grew 8.6 percent, during the first nine months production grew 8.percent and in the course of ten months the growth rate reached 8.8 percent.

Corporate News OAO North-West Telecom Standard & Poors upgraded the operator's Corporate Governance Score from 5.0 to 5.6. The agency's analysts point out that the recent changes in the Board of Directors should lead to a development of more efficient control and management systems in future. However, at the present time, due to increased influence exerted by a single majority shareholder and its dominating role in the decision-making process, and also due to underdeveloped independent control mechanisms, the company's management process has certain drawbacks.

OAO Surgutneftegas The US GAAP report for the previous year published by the oil company demonstrates a deterioration of the company's main financial indicators: revenues fell to US$ 5.23 billion (-9 percent), EBITDA fell down to US$ 2.57 billion (-26 percent) and the adjusted net profit down to US$ 1.57 billion (-16 percent).

OAO Sberbank Sberbank presented its mandatory financial reports for Quarter 3 of year 2002. Net profit grew 95 percent (as compared to the previous year) up to RUR 28.7 billion. Besides, according to Sberbank officials, the profit in 2002 may reach RUR 30 billion, which exceeds the earlier estimate of RUR 27.2 billion, and the dividends may increase twofold.

OAO RAO UES of Russia RAO UES also published its current year results in November. Its net profit grew up to RUR 39.98 billion during the first 9 months of the current year, and the IAS net profits in the first six months increased to RUR 17.8 billion. According to a statement by V. Sinyugin, Deputy Chairman of the Board, which he made at a meeting with investors in Boston, the energy holding is also planning to increase the dividends approximately twofold.

OAO MMC Norilsk Nickel MMC Norilsk Nickel acquired 100 percent of shares of Russia's largest gold production company Polyus.

In 2002 Polyus is going to produce 25 tons of gold, which would bring it circa US$ 250 in revenues and circa US$ 75 in profit. The MMC paid US$ 226 million in cash for the 100 percent of Polyus's shares.

In addition to purchasing domestic assets, Norilsk Nickel plays actively abroad: the MMC is acquiring for US$ 341 million a controlling block of shares of Stillwater Mining Company, the only US producer of platinum group metals. US$ 100 million will be paid in cash and the remaining US$ 241 million in the form of 876,000 ounces of palladium.

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