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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES November 2002 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2002 © Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, ИД № 02079 от 19 июня 2000 г.

© © © 5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru The State of the Federal Budget.................................................................................................................... 3 Monetary Policy............................................................................................................................................ 6 Financial Markets.......................................................................................................................................... 7 Enterprises and organizations: the state of payments.................................................................................. 15 Investment in the Real Sector...................................................................................................................... 19 The Real Sector: Factors and Trends........................................................................................................... 21 Grain Interventions in 2002......................................................................................................................... 22 Introduction of Grain Quotas by the EU..................................................................................................... 25 2003 Agricultural Budget............................................................................................................................ 26 IET Business Survey: Industry.................................................................................................................... 29 Foreign Trade.............................................................................................................................................. The State of the Federal Budget According to the preliminary estimates of the Finance Ministry, the federal budget in January through September of 2002 was executed as follows: revenues – Rb. 1799.3 billion, expenditures (actual financing) – Rb. 1721.8 billion.

Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % of GDP, in comparable prices).

XII`01 I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`02 IX`Revenues Corporate profit tax 2,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 1,9% 1,7% 1,7% 1,7% 1,6% Personal income tax 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 0,0% 4,9% 4,4% 4,0% 3,9% 3,6% 3,5% 3,5% 3,3% 3,2% Tax on foreign trade and foreign9,4% 9,3% 9,1% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,1% 9,0% trade operations Other taxes, duties and payments 7,1% 6,9% 6,4% 6,8% 6,9% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% 6,9% Total- taxes and charges 2,2% 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,3% 2,2% 2,1% 2,0% Non- tax revenues 3,7% 3,2% 3,3% 3,2% 3,0% 2,9% 2,9% 2,9% 2,8% 2,8% Revenues, total 0,6% 9,7% 9,1% 8,7% 8,7% 8,4% 1,8% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% Expenditure 16,2% 20,4% 19,6% 19,6% 19,9% 19,6% 19,3% 19,4% 18,9% 18,5% Public administration 1,4% 2,1% 1,6% 1,4% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% National defense 17,6% 22,4% 21,2% 20,9% 21,2% 20,9% 20,6% 20,9% 20,4% 20,0% International activities Judicial power 0,5% 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% Law enforcement and security activi-2,7% 1,0% 1,5% 1,9% 2,3% 2,4% 2,5% 2,5% 2,5% 2,4% ties Fundamental research 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for the national0,1% 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% economy Social services 1,6% 0,6% 0,9% 1,0% 1,2% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% Servicing of public debt 0,3% 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Other expenditure 1,3% 0,1% 0,3% 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% 0,8% 0,8% 0,8% Expenditure, total 2,3% 3,7% 4,8% 4,8% 5,3% 5,2% 5,2% 5,2% 5,1% 4,9% Loans, redemption exclusive 2,6% 2,0% 3,4% 3,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,4% 2,4% Expenditure and loans, redemption3,0% 2,9% 3,3% 3,6% 3,9% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,9% 3,8% exclusive Budget deficit (-) 14,7% 10,9% 15,0% 16,1% 16,9% 17,1% 17,2% 17,2% 17,1% 16,9% Domestic financing 2,9% 11,5% 6,2% 4,8% 4,3% 3,8% 3,4% 3,7% 3,3% 3,1% Other taxes, duties and payments -0,1% -11,2% -4,6% -2,7% -2,0% -1,8% -1,6% -1,8% -1,3% -1,2% Total- taxes and charges -2,8% -0,4% -1,6% -2,1% -2,3% -1,9% -1,8% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% Non- tax revenues -2,9% -11,5% -6,2% -4,8% -4,3% -3,8% -3,4% -3,7% -3,3% -3,1% * в % ВВП; ** ЕСН включен в налоговые доходы Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, actual financing).

I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`02 IX`02 X`Total 22,2% 21,0% 20,9% 21,2% 20,8% 20,5% 20,5% 20,5% 20,0% 20,2% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% National defense 1,7% 2,4% 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,7% International activities 0,4% 0,2% 0,4% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% 0,4% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Law enforcement and security 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,5% 1,6% 1,9% 1,6% 1,6% 1,8% activities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for the na0,3% 0,6% 0,8% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,1% 1,0% 1,5% tional economy Social services 5,0% 5,7% 5,3% 5,9% 5,7% 5,5% 5,6% 5,4% 5,2% 5,8% Servicing of public debt 1,9% 3,4% 3,4% 2,7% 2,5% 2,4% 2,6% 2,4% 2,4% 2,2% Other expenditure 3,5% 4,0% 3,9% 4,0% 4,6% 4,2% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% Total expenditure 15,5% 18,7% 18,6% 19,1% 19,4% 18,9% 19,1% 18,6% 18,2% 19,3% Профицит (+) / дефицит (-) 6,8% 2,3% 2,3% 2,1% 1,4% 1,6% 1,4% 1,8% 1,7% 0,9% The data on the cash execution of the federal budget up to September of 2002 are presented in Table 11, the data on fulfilled funding up to October of 2002 are presented in Table 2. As of October 1, 2002, the revenues of the federal budget accounted for 20.0 % of GDP, including tax revenues at 18.5 %, while expenditures made 16.9 % of GDP (18.2 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding2), including non-interest ones – 14.% of GDP (15.8 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding). The level of budget surplus accounted for 3.1 % of GDP (1.7 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding).

The indicators of revenues collected in January through September of 2002 somewhat decreased as compared with the figures registered in January through August. The tax revenues in January through August of 2002 made 15.3 % of GDP (without the single social tax).

The expenditures for the servicing of the public debt in January through September of 2002 made 2.4 % of GDP. As concerns the fulfilled funding, the expenditures in the first nine months of 2002 made 19.3 % of GDP.

As of November l, according to the preliminary estimates, the balances of accounts on accounting the federal budget funds (without regard to the funds accumulated on personal accounts of recipients of budget funds) grew up by Rb. 40.1 bln. since the beginning of the year.

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999) 3.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 239,6% 218,0% 284,4% 246,5% 254,8% 298,9% Figure 1. Rate of growth of the real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to June of 1999) 200% 180% НДС Налог на прибыль 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may be subject to revision.

2 The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

3 It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable. January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

Июнь Июнь Июнь Июнь Август Август Август Август Апрель Апрель Апрель Декабрь Декабрь Декабрь Октябрь Октябрь Октябрь Октябрь Февраль Февраль Февраль The dynamics of actual tax debts to the federal budget is presented in Figure 14. In September, no significant changes were registered.

Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expendi- 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% tures Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expendi- 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% tures Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IХ X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expendi- 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% tures Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IХ Х XI XII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Expendi- 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% tures Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX Taxes 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% 25,2% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% 31,7% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% 28,4% Deficit 14,6% 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% 3,3% * Без учета ЕСН Table 5.

The estimate of tax revenues Всего налоговых Всего поступлений Всего поступлений Всего поступлений Всего налоговых Всего поступлений поступлений в кон- налога на прибыль НДС подоходного налога поступлений в фе- налога на прибыль солидированный в консолидирован- в консолидирован- деральный бюджет в федеральный бюджет РФ ный бюджет РФ ный бюджет РФ РФ бюджет РФ ARIMA Октябрь 24,5% 4,2% 6,8% 3,1% 15,3% 1,5% Ноябрь 24,9% 4,3% 6,9% 3,1% 15,4% 1,6% Декабрь 25,4% 4,2% 7,3% 3,3% 15,8% 1,6% Январь 25,2% 4,2% 7,3% 3,2% 15,7% 1,5% REM Октябрь 24,7% 4,2% 6,8% 3,1% 15,5% 1,6% Ноябрь 24,5% 4,2% 6,7% 3,1% 15,7% 1,5% Декабрь 24,8% 4,2% 6,8% 3,1% 15,7% 1,5% Январь 25,5% 4,1% 7,1% 3,2% 16,3% 1,5% 4 Since 2001 the form of the MTC’s presentation of the respective statistical data has been changed, and the data on debts to the federal budget across all the taxes are no longer available. Since January of 2002 the practice of balancing the data on the arrears against the amount of tax surplus has been ceased. In this relation the figure presents the data on the gross unbalanced tax arrears for comparability purposes.

The level of tax revenues of the consolidated budget in January through September of 2002 somewhat decreased in comparison to the indicators observed in the period from January to August. The surplus of the consolidated budget was by 0.2 % of GDP below the level registered in the preceding year.

The estimate of tax revenues of the consolidated and federal budgets is presented in the table5. The estimate was revised as compared to the indicators presented in the preceding bulletin basing on the new data on the execution of the consolidated and federal budgets.

S. Batkibekov Monetary Policy According to the State Committee for Statistics of the RF, in October the consumer price index amounted to 101.1 percent. The seasonal decline in prices for fruits and vegetables is practically over: the index for this commodity group was 98.9 percent in October.

The service price index grew 2.5 percent. The greatest rise in this group was observed in the public transportation sector: prices grew 4.6 percent. The increase occurred primarily owing to the municipal transport.

Prices for housing and communal services are still growing: the increase amounts to 2.5 percent, or 43.7 percent as compared to December 2001. Prices for non-foods grew 0.9 percent.

In the course of the first ten moths of year 2002 inflation in the Russian Federation (measured by the CPI) was 11.5 percent (15.2 percent in the respective period of 2001). According to preliminary estimates, in November the increase in consumer prices was 1.2 - 1.3 percent. In this connection it is quite probable that the annualized inflation would slightly exceed the upper limit of the 12-14 percent range set by the Government.

Figure 1. Consumer Price Index in 1,1% 1,0% 0,9% 0,8% 0,7% 0,6% 0,5% 0,4% 0,3% 0,2% 0,1% 0,0% -0,1% -0,2% In November the gold and currency reserves continued to grow, reaching another historic high of US$ 47.7 billion on 22 November 2002 (as opposed to US$ 46.7 billion on 01 November 2002). The month of November cannot be regarded as strenuous in respect to external debt payments: the amount of the scheduled payments was US$ 536.9 billion.

The guidelines of the currency legislation liberalization were more or less clarified. The draft law, adopted as a whole on 14 November, stipulates for mandatory repatriation of currency earnings within a period of up to 180 days. It also allows the Central Bank to impose certain limitations on capital transactions: the socalled account operation procedure (a list of permitted transactions) and mandatory reservation of up to percent of the transaction amount for up to one year in case of importing currency and of up to 100 percent in For the description of models see the preceding bulletins.

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