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., 2 4. 1 MAPE (,, 7, 8 16 ), 8 MAPE (MAPE ).,, 1, ( MAPE),, 8,.

:

Fix ;

Rec ;

Track back-on-track;

Ave back-on-ave.

- DS- TS- / Fix Track Ave Rec Fix Track Ave Rec M1/DS 7 2 8 3 4 6 7 1 5. 16 2 4 1 3 8 5 7 6 M1/DS 7 1 3 2 4. 16 1 2 4 3 M0/DS 7 4 1 3 2. 16 5 6 4 1 8 3 7 2 0/DS 7 1-2 3 4 1-2. 16 3 1 4 2 M2/DS 7 2 3 1 4. 16 2 8 6 1 4 7 5 3 2/DS 7 1 3 4 2. 16 2 1 3 4 8 2 1 4 3 /TS 16 2 8 5 1 6 7 4 3 /DS 7 3 1 4 2. 16 7 4 2 5 8 3 1 6 /DS 7 1 2 4 3. 16 3 2 4 1 /TS 7 3 5-6 7-8 4 1 5-6 7-8 2 /DS 7 5 8 6-7 3-4 2 6-7 1 3-4 /DS 7 2 1 4 6 7 3 5 8 () /TS 7 2 8 7 3 4 6 1 5 (/c) 287 ( ):

- / DS- TS- M1/DS 7 +. 16 + M1/DS 7 +. 16 + M0/DS 7 +. 16 + + 0/DS 7 . 16 + + M2/DS 7 . 16 2/DS 7 . 16 8 + /TS 16 + /DS 7 + +. 16 + + /DS 7 +. 16 + /TS 7 /DS 7 + /DS () 7 + /TS (/c) 7 ().

, :

.. Back-on- Back-on-ave track.. Back-on-ave.. Back-on-track Back-on-ave Back-on-ave, :

288.. Back-on- Back-on-ave track...

.. Back-on-track.. Back-on-ave. ().

, MAPE ( ) TS- DS- (DS-), DS- (15 18 ),, TS (3 4 ). 1, DS-,.

.

, (, TS- DS-),,..

(MAPE),, M1 (MAPE 2% 3%),, (MAPE 0,06% 0,1%) (MAPE 0,1%).

(,,, 289, :

,.) 16,, MAPE 7%.

, , ( ),... MAPE 5%.,,., , (.. 2.8), (MAPE = 0,704%) (MAPE = 0,724%),,, ( ).

,,.

, 1 DS-, 02.1999,. 2.1. DS-, 08.2000 02.2001:

RMSE=30788.31, MAE=25004.23, MAPE=3.119278.

, AR( 2),,AR( 7),,, RMSE=30337.52, MAE=24768.65, MAPE=3..

, R2adj ( ), AIC ( ), SIC ( ),,,.

( ) AR( 7), :

RMSE=30897.48, MAE=25365.34, MAPE=3.168368.

,, SIC=22., (22.354).

( ) (,, ).,.

7 ( 8) 41,7%, 16 90,9%.,, M0, (MAPE), 16 ( ), 5,13% DS- 3,31% DS-.

, DS-, ( 15 18 ), (3 18)., DS-.

, M1, DS-. (MAPE),. 3.1.1 ( ), 9,02% 3,05% .

, TS-, ( ) 3 4.

, ( 3.2) TS-. (MAPE), 16, 8,39% 6,99% .

().

.

,. 3.3 ( ), :

0 --00:07 00:09 00:11 01:01 01:03 01:05 01:07 01:09 00:07 00:09 00:11 01:01 01:03 01:05 01:07 01:DELTA_TS DELTA_DS ( DELTA_TS , DELTA_DS ).

back-on-track,,, (. 4.3).

16 M1, M0., M1 (MAPE), 16 (. 4.3.1), 9,37% TS- 3,63% , back-on-track.

back-on-track,.

, ( 4.3.5). TS-.

2.1.1.0.0.-0.-1.00:05 00:07 00:09 00:11 01:01 01:03 01:05 01:DELTA_TS back-on-track :

---78 80 82 84 86 88 90 DELTA_BACK_ON_TR (MAPE), 16, 6,99% TS-, 12,17% back-on-track.

-.,, .

,, back-on-track,,,. 4.3.1. M TS-. ; :

00:08 00:09 00:10 00:11 00:12 01:01 01:DELTA_TS back-on-track : :

00:08 00:09 00:10 00:11 00:12 01:01 01:DELTA_TS_BACK MAPE 3,96% 4,75%.

, 1, : :

00:08 00:09 00:10 00:11 00:12 01:01 01:DELTA_TS MAPE 2,36%.

back-on-track (back-on-average),,, ( 4.3.),.

, (. 4.3.4) (MAPE), 16, 7,76% DS ( ), 5,48% back-on-track 4,59% back-on-ave.

, back-on-ave.

, DS- c (. 3.3) :

-00:07 00:09 00:11 01:01 01:03 01:05 01:07 01:DELTA_DS DS :

-54 56 58 60 62 64 66 DELTA_DS back-onave :

-54 56 58 60 62 64 66 MAPE = 7,76% DS 5,74% 4,59 back-on-ave.

back-on-track back-on-average,, back-ontrack.

, M2 DS- : :

----00:10 01:01 01:04 01:07 01:D L AD ET _ S DS- (. 4.3.3). (MAPE), 16, 2,60%, 3,86% back-on-track, 3,26% back-on-ave 2,46% .

,,. ( 5,0%)., ( 9,8%, 9,2%, 4,5%, ). 2 ( 1,8% 7,1%).

0 ( 4,1%, 1,9%)., ( 0,4%, 4,8%).

(MAPE),,.

M0, M1,,,, 1 (3% 4,75% M1; 3,31% 4,12% M0, 6,69% ; 4,50% 5,03% ; 0,72% 1,91% ). M2, 2 (1,84% 2,46%).

,.,., DS- TS-,,.,, ( ).

, -,,,., (,,,.),. :

,,,,.

,,,,.

TS- DS-.

, DS-,., TS-,., DS-,,.

,.

.,,,,, 4. .

-.,, .

,,,.




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