1000,0 Total emission, billion rubles Amount of issues 800,600,400,200,0,0 Рис. 7. Структура корпоративных облигационных займовIn the period from September 24 to October 24, 12 issues of corporate bonds for the total amount of RUR 37.7 billion were registered (42 issues for RUR 168.0 billion from August 25 to September 23) Cbonds data: http://www.cbonds.info/ru/rus/index/ Cbonds data: http://www.cbonds.info/emissions/index Index RUX-Cbonds Amount of bonds issues Effective yield, % 24.09.22.10.18.104.22.168.22.01.22.02.24.03.22.04.22.05.23.06.22.07.22.08.24.09.24.10.Total emission, billion rubles rubles rubles up to 1 billion billion rubles from 1 up to billion rubles over 10 billion from 5 up to Herewith, three emitters have issued the bonds for the first time. The largest are made by OAO «Group of Companies PIK» (3 series of bonds for the total value of RUR 12 billion) and « Renaissance Capital Commercial Bank» (LLC)(2 bonds issues for the total amount of RUR billion).
In October, there has been some increase in the number of placed issues of corporate bonds and their total volume as compared with the extremely low level in the previous month (Fig. 8). Thus, «Gazprombank» (OAO) and OAO «Mobile TeleSystems» have placed the bonds for the total amount of RUR 20 billion. The interest of investors in new issues of corporate bonds is volatile; a decline in placements was noted in January, May and September of the current year. In October, due to nonplacement of any of the RF FSFM issues, ten issues of corporate bonds offered for public placement were acknowledged void(in the previous month - 5 releases)18.
100 объем выпусков, млрд руб количество выпусков 0 Fig. 8.Dynamics of corporate bonds primary placements In October 5 issuers have redeemed the bonded loans in the amount of RUR 4.45 billion. In November, redemption of 8 issues of corporate bonds is expected, totaling to RUR 6.7 billion20.
Real Economy Sector: Trends and Factors O. Izryadnova In 2008 expected GDP growth will make 7.0-7.2% as compared with 8.1% in 2007. It is the slowdown of the investments in fixed assets growth rates down to 13.1% against 21.3% in the corresponding period of the previous year and slower expansion of the consumer demand in the environment of reserved increase in population’s real incomes that influence the economic dynamics.
According to the preliminary data of the Ministry for Trade and Economic Development, over January-September 2008 GDP made RUR 30855.8 bln, having increased by 7.7% as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, which roughly corresponds to 2007 growth rates. It is the slow-down of the investments in fixed assets growth rates down to 113.1% against 121.3% in January-September 2007 and deceleration of the industrial production down to 105.4% against 106.6%. The situation is aggravated by increase in the inflation growth rates in January-September 2008 up to 110.6% as compared with 107.5% in the corresponding period of the previous year against the background of anticipating growth of producers’ prices (117.6%), tariffs for freight transportation Russian Federal Service for Financial Markets information.
Cbonds: http://www.cbonds.info/emissions/index Cbonds: http://www.cbonds.info/emissions/index количество размещенных выпусков облигаций млрд руб общий объем размещенных выпусков облигаций, окт.окт.авг.ноя.дек.янв.апр.сен.фев.мар.май.июн.июл.(121.6%), electricity production, transmission and distribution prices (120.6%). As a result of the year the expected GDP growth will be 7.0-7.2% as compared with 108.1% in 2007 and 107.4% in 2006.
Decrease in economic growth rates was accompanied by simultaneous slackening of both external and internal demand dynamics (fig. 1). It is a considerable slow-down of the investments in fixed assets growth rates that had the biggest influence on the internal market. As a result of three quarters of the current year the share of the investments in the GDP made 18.1%. However as compared with the previous year this year the characteristics of national savings in investments transformation have worsened.
16,14,12,10,8,6,4,2,0,I II III IV I II III IV I II 2006 2007 internal demand external demand GDP (resources) Source: Federal State Statistics Service, Ministry for Economic Development and Trade, IET calculations.
Fig. 1. Change in GDP Dynamics by Components of Internal and External Demand in 2006-2008, as percentage to the corresponding quarter of the previous year High growth rates of consumer demand were supported by the growth of real population’s income, which is slowing down but is still high. In January-September 2008 real disposable incomes went up by 7.8% as compared with 10.4% over the corresponding period of 2007, real wages increasing by 12.8% as compared with 16.2% a year ago. Slowdown of real wages growth rates in comparison with the previous year resulted in the proportional change of GDP formation by incomes. In 2008 the trend for the gradual decrease of the employees’ labor remuneration, which was observed in 2004-2006 and was interrupted in 2007, has recovered. Analysis of the GDP formation by sources of income demonstrates that in the first quarter the proportion of employees’ labor remuneration has reduced to 49.1%, in the second quarter – to 46.4% against 46.3% and 47.6% over the corresponding periods of 2007.
Real population’s monetary incomes growth rates slowing down, the expenses of the households have decreased down to 47.3% of the GDP as a result of the first half of 2008 as compared with 49.4% in 2007. Increase in population’s solvent demand for and considerable expansion of consumer crediting were the main factors contributing in the sustention of the retail trade turnover at the level of 15% in January-September 2008 as compared with 15.8% in the previous year. Whereas in the first quarter increase in retail trade turnover made 16.7%, in the second and third quarters it slowed down to 14.4% on the corresponding period of the previous year. In retail trade turnover the volume of non-food goods sales continued to develop more dynamically than that of foodstuffs and was supported by the reserved growth of prices. Since the beginning of the year prices for non-food goods went up by 6.5% against 4.0% in the previous year, and prices for foodstuffs increased by 12.1%, exceeding the figures of January-September 2007 by 4 per cent.
Over January-September 2008 non-food goods turnover has increased by 20.1% as compared with 18.4% in the corresponding period of the previous tear, in contrast, the turnover of foodstuffs has decreased down to 9.1% against 12.4% in 2007. Increase in the share of expenses for goods purchase in the population’s monetary incomes from 54.5% in January-September 2007 to 56.8% in the corresponding period of this year was accompanied by the decrease of inclination for saving and increase in expenses for currency purchase in the environment of ruble exchange rates fluctuations. As compared with January-September 2007, the share of savings in population’s incomes has decreased by nearly 1.1 per cent, currency purchase – increased by 0.5 per cent, credits, rendered to the natural persons by banks have gone up by nearly 1.27 times since the beginning of the year. Acceleration of current consumption growth rates is partially made up by the expansion of investment demand and accumulation of a part of population’s incomes in housing building at the expense of own and loaned funds.
Deceleration of investment activity rates has undoubtedly negative effect both on the general situation in the economy and on the structural shifts at the internal market. According to the estimation, in the first half of 2008 growth rates of domestic production of foods for internal consumption made 6.8% against 9.6% in the first half of 2007 and 7.5% in 2006. It is import that has a primary effect on the level and dynamics of the internal consumption: the share of import in the retail trade resources makes 45%, being 35% in the retail trade turnover of foodstuffs and nearly 20% in the investments in the machinery and equipment.
35,30,25,20,15,10,5,0,I II III IV I II III IV I II 2006 2007 domestic production import internal demand Source: Federal State Statistics Service, Ministry for Economic Development and Trade, IET calculations.
Fig. 2 Change in Dynamics of Internal Demand As Broken by Components, as percentage to the corresponding quarter of the previous year In 2008 in the industry the anticipating growth of processing industries sustains. Minerals extraction production increasing by 0.5% over January-September, output of processing industries production has increased by 7.7% against 10.1% in the corresponding period of the previous year. Decrease in the investment demand was accompanied by the slackening of construction materials production dynamics. In January-September 2008 the growth rates of non-metal mineral goods production was equal to 104.9% as compared with 113.9% in the corresponding period of the previous year, of metallurgy production and production of finished metal goods – by 101.5% against 102.6%. Though the machine building still holds the leadership as regards to the growth rates, as compared with the previous year a considerable deceleration in the industry is observed. Over January-September 2008 increase and machinery and equipment production made 9.1% against 20.9% in the corresponding period of 2007. The increase in electric equipment and optics production by 14.8% in January-September 2007 was succeeded by the drop by 5.4% in the corresponding period of the current year. Transport vehicles and equipment production demonstrate quite a steady dynamics: 116.1% and 115.7%, correspondingly, in January-September 2008 and 2007.
As to the complex of consumer goods production, quite a considerable growth deceleration is observed as compared with the previous year. In foodstuffs industry production output rates have decreased from 106.4% in the first quarter to 103.9% in the second and 101.7% in the third quarter 2008.
In textile and sewing industry the positive dynamics of the first half of 2008 was succeeded by the drop in production by 2.1% in the third quarter. Besides, this year the slow-down of domestic consumer goods production was accompanied by the slackening of the import dynamics as compared with the corresponding period of 2007, which was reflected in the figures of retail trade stocks.
Staring with the second half of September, a radical change in the economic situation under the influence of the world financial crisis and sharp demand growth for credits to fulfill investment programs and replenishing liquid funds at the internal market has been observed.
According to the estimations, as a result of 2008 GDP growth rates will be equal to 107.0-107.2%, investments in fixed assets growth rates – to 111.0%, real population’s incomes – to 108.0%. Basing on the figures expected for 2009, forecast GDP growth is within the range of 105.1-105.5%.
Russian industry in October S. Tsukhlo Despite the optimism of Rosstat’s data, the situation of Russian enterprises is becoming worse. The indicators of the behavior of both demand and supply have become as bleak as in the year 1998. The structure of restrictions of industrial growth has started to change: the internal effective demand has climbed to the first place, and the lack of circulating assets – to the second; there emerged the first signs of impending nonpayments. However, the experiences of the nineties have proved to be of some value: so far, enterprises have managed to avoid overstocking of warehouses and job cuts., and no preconditions for dismissals have emerged as yet.
Rosstat’s data continue to demonstrate the healthy behavior of Russian industry: in September, the index of production rose by 6.3% on the corresponding period of the previous year, against 4.7% in August. However, according to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, the average daily volume of output in September rose by 2.9% on the corresponding period of the previous year. With due regard to the seasonal and calendar factors, the average monthly rate of output growth in July - September amounted to only 0.1% (including to 0.2% in September). Thus, in Q 3, industry was balancing on the verge of stagnation.
An assessment of the current situation Meanwhile, for several months in sequence, the surveys of directors of enterprises have been revealing a negative dynamic of the majority of major indicators. In October, the situation in Russian industry became even worse.
Firstly, the intensity (or balance) of the decline in demand for industrial products has reached proportions unprecedented throughout the whole post-default period. In October, the balance plunged to – 27 points. Previously, such values of this indicator were registered only in Januaries, and not necessarily every year. Although due to the elimination of seasonal and casual fluctuations it became possible to insignificantly reduce the rate of decline in demand, it still remains record-high: the observed fall in demand has never been so pronounced since October 1998. But at that time, industry, after all, was coping with the consequences of the recent crisis, while now, as it seems, it is on the verge of another one.
Secondly, the degree of satisfaction with demand has fallen in Russian industry to 50 %, which means that only half of the enterprises consider their volumes of sales to be normal in the existing situation. By comparison with the absolute high (August 2007), this indicator has dropped by almost one and a half times, demonstrating its worst value for the past 32 months. The decline in the degree of satisfaction with the volume of sales is registered in all branches of industry, excepting the foodstuffs production.
Thirdly, production growth has completely stopped. As recently as September, the balance of changes in output (after the elimination of seasonal factors) was still positive, while presently we are faced with zero growth. The indicator is at its worth since November 1998. Meanwhile, for the second month in sequence, the basic ( not cleared) data have been pointing to an absolute decline in output.
Especially bleak is the situation in metallurgy. The rest of the industries are balancing on the verge of zero-growth, or have been forced to reduce output.
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