An analysis of the dynamics of mineral resource extraction industry demonstrates that in the current year positive dynamics, observed in fuel-and-energy resources has compensated the drop in extraction of other mineral resources. Positive tendency investment growth in fuel-and-energy resources extraction by 26.0 per cent within the first half-year and the expansion of exploration scale have resulted in growth of oil extraction within January- September by 2.5 per cent and oil (by 3.0 per cent). In this situation, a trend to a remarkable growth of the supply of oil products to refineries for primary processing was observed. One should take into regard that this tendency was determined by a lowered exports, caused by the growing pressure of taxes and transport tariffs. The rates of growth of oil refining have amounted within January - September 2006 to 105.4 per cent against the relevant period of 2005, which led to production growth of: gasoline by 6.8 per cent, diesel fuel by 7.0 per cent, burner fuel by 4,1 per cent.
In processing industries, the slow-down of production against January-September of 2005 made 0.p.p in the background of accelerated differentiation of growth rate in demand and investment goods.
The most expressed input into the growth of processing industries was made by expanded scale of metallurgy and metal products industry (110.7 per cent as compared with January - September 2005), plastic and rubber items manufacture (110.6 per cent). A specific tendency was observed in 2006 to overcome the drop in production in textile and clothing manufactures (112.9 per cent.) and an accelerated overrunning growth in foodstuffs production (105.2 per cent.) versus the unified index of growth in processing industries.
T Fig. 5.T Dynamics in Development of Processing Industries in 2005-2006, % versus January - September of Preceding Year 2005 -The expansion of production volume of consumer goods by the Russian enterprises contributed to the reduction of imports share in the structure of retail trade commodities, which made 47 per cent in the first quarter of the year and 41 per cent in the second quarter against 47 per cent and 42 per cent in the relevant period of 2005г. With the account to sustainable competitiveness of the Russian foodElectric equipment industry Processing industries Foodstuffs production Machinery and equipment production Oil products equipment Wood processing industry Metallurgy Non-metal products manufacture Rubber and plastic production Pulp and paper industry Chemicals production Textile and clothing manufacture Transport vehicles and related Leather and footwear production stuffs, their share in the total volume of food products raised from 63 per cent in the first quarter to per cent in the second quarter of 2006. In non-food commodities, market import makes a share of 51.per cent.
Engineering industries demonstrate moderate dynamics. As compared with the level of JanuarySeptember of 2005, the growth was observed in production of: electric, electronic and fiber optic equipment by 0.2 per cent, transportation vehicles and transportation equipment by 3,4 per cent, while the rate in production of machinery and equipment has dropped down. The market of investments was supported by the overrunning growth of imports of machinery and equipment ( (151,9 per cent) in comparison with the dynamics of domestic production and investments in fixed assets.
Disproportions in the structure of demand and supply, low competitiveness of engineering plants in terms of quality, capacity and price of products encourage a tendency of growth of the investment share. In the present state of domestic investment products import stays one of the basic sources of upgrading of fixed assets, renovation and modernization of industrial enterprises. In the imports structure by types of goods, the share of machinery and equipment has been increased from 42.6 per cent to 50.3 per cent as compared with January-September of 2005.
Among positive factors, providing an impact over the production rate dynamics, one can stress out the growth of output of commodities under foreign companies’ licenses with the use of imported assembly parts. An overrunning growth of production at the enterprises with foreign capital gives incentives to the changes in the market competitive situation.
According to IET estimates of macroeconomic indicators as of end of 2006, in the present situation the estimated GDP growth should make 106.7 per cent, investments in fixed assets – 110.9 per cent, engineering industries - 104.6 per cent.
О. Izryadnova The situation in industry in October The stabilization of the growth of sales in October resulted in a lower satisfaction with the volumes of demand, thus making enterprises bring down their output growth rates. The increasingly stronger restrictions on production growth in Russia’s industry are being imposed by the shortage of qualified cadres.
According to the Rosstat’s data, in September the trend of growth in industrial production continued as before. At the same time, the intensity of this growth became somewhat less prominent. The rate of daily average production, as estimates by the TsMAKP, rose in September by 0.3 % against the monthly average of 0.4% for the third quarter (cleared of seasonality). The rate of industrial production growth, as seen by the results of the year 2006, has been estimated by the Rosstat as being equal to 104.2 - 104.5 %, by the TsMAKP – to 105.5 - 105.3 %.
The first available information concerning the changes in the basic indices of Russian industry occurring early in Q IV 2006 have demonstrated a continuing slowdown in industrial growth and less optimistic forecasts as to its dynamics (at least as viewed by managers of enterprises) during the nezt few months.
In October, the intensity growth in demand remained basically unchanged. On the whole, the average rate of growth in sales in industry (when cleared of seasonality) remained at the previous month’s level. The slowdown in demand growth (sometimes to the degree of absolute drop in the volume of sales) was noted only at the branch level: in the manufacture of garments, timber and timber products, cellulose, paper and cardboard; in metallurgy; in the production of electrical machines and appliances.
This resulted in a lower satisfaction with demand. In October, the percentage of the estimates of sales as normal went down to 61%, after having been 67% in September. So far, this has happened only due to the downward estimations of the rates in metallurgy and the production of cellulose, paper and cardboard.
However, the rate of growth in output somewhat declined in December, as it had been planned by the enterprises a month earlier. Apparently, the December upsurge in demand was unexpected for the producers, bearing in mind their experiences of recent years. After being cleared of seasonality, the decline in the balance (in the rate of growth) amounted to 3 p. p., while the additional exclusion of incidental fluctuations demonstrated that the rate of growth in output remained at the level of the previous month. Production grew everywhere, except the fuel branch, and the timber, woodwork and timber, and construction industries.
BALANCES OF CHANGES IN EFFECTIVE DEMAND, DEMANDDEMAND АТЕЖЕСПОСОБНОГО СПРОСА % CLEARED OF SEASONAL AND ACCIDENTAL FLUCTUATIONS 30 ОТ СЕЗОННЫХ И СЛУЧАЙНЫХ КОЛЕБАНИЙ EXPECTED -ACTUAL ------1/93 1/95 1/97 1/99 1/01 1/03 1/05 1/The rates of growth in industrial production during the past month decreased (when cleared of seasonality), on the whole in industry, by 7 balance points. As a result, the October index turned out to become the record low for the year 2006 and the last 13 months. Lowering rates of output growth were recoded in all industrial sectors, with the exception of the chemical industry and the manufacture of rubber and plastic products. At the same time, in machine-building and the manufacture of equipment, there occurred an absolute fall in output. Identical changes in demand and output at the microlevel were noted at 66 % of enterprises. Among the rest, we observed the prevalence of those enterprises whose output growth rate is higher than that of sales growth (18%).
CHANGES IN PRODUCTION, CLEARED OF SEASONAL AND ACCIDENTAL FLUCTUATIONS (BALANCE=%GROWTH-%DECREASE) % EXPECTED ACTUAL ----1/93 1/95 1/97 1/99 1/01 1/03 1/05 1/During Q IV, the growth rates of employment in industry became lower, too. The balance of changes in this index (the difference in the percentages of the answers “growth” and “reduction” ) went down to +2 points, after having been equal to 5 and 6 points in Q II and Q III, respectively. The lowered growth rates of employment were observed in all sectors, except power engineering, the manufacture of radio, TV and communications equipment, the building of vessels and aircraft, as well as in the food industry.
However, the natural response of producers to the lowering output growth rates has not been the only cause of the reduced rate in the recruitment of new employees. An increasing number of industrial enterprises are faced with the shortage of qualified cadres at the labor market, which impedes output growth even when there is sufficient demand. In Q IV, 36% of enterprises stated that they indeed had that problem. At present, insufficient demand serves as an impediment to output growth at 37% of enterprises, while the shortage of circulating assets – also at 37%. At the same time, the restricting effect of the two latter factors is gradually becoming less strong, while the shortage of cadres is becoming increasingly stronger. The fourth place on the list of the impediments to production growth belongs to the competitions with imports. It was mentioned by 27 % of enterprises, while no significant changes in the occurrence of this factor in Russian industry were noted in 2005 - 2006.
IMPEDIMENTS TO PRODUCTION GROWTH % SHORTAGE OF CIRCULATING ASSETS LOW DEMAND NONPAYMENTS SHORTAGE OF 30 RAW MATERIALS COMPETITION SHORTAGE WITH IMPORT OF CADRES OF CADRES 1/93 1/94 1/95 1/96 1/97 1/98 1/99 1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/The fact of enterprises being short of appropriate personnel has been confirmed by the continuing, for a second successive year, decline in the sufficiency of qualified cadres in industry. The record high of this index was recorded in early 2005. At that time, 76 % of enterprises stated that they had “a sufficient number of personnel to meet the expected demand”, while now only 68% of enterprises make such a statement. As for the index of insufficient cadres, it has, for a second successive quarter, been observed at the highest level (21 %). As a result, the balance of estimates in respect to personnel sufficiency remains at its historic low in respect since the start of our monitoring surveys (1996 - 2006) its negative values demonstrating that more industrial enterprises are suffering from the shortage of cadres than from the excess of cadres. This shortage is now being most strongly felt in light industry (% of enterprises) and machine-building (27 %).
ESTIMATED EXCESS OF PERSONNEL AT ENTERPRISES % SUFFICIENT MORE THAN SUFFICIENT IINSUFFICIENT 1/93 1/94 1/95 1/961/971/98 1/991/001/01 1/021/031/041/05 1/061/Alongside the lowering output growth in industry, its growth of profits has also been declining. After five months of a stable and relatively high growth rate of this index, the September polls demonstrated zero growth, while those in October demonstrated decline. However, the lengthy period of growing profits has resulted in a majority of enterprises ( 77% - the absolute historic high during the years 1993 - 2006) achieving a satisfactory financial and economic status. As for the balance of answers (the percentage of “good” estimates minus “bad” estimates), it for the first time in 1993 - became positive.
The forecasts of changes in demand (when cleared of seasonality) have not altered in any significant way during the past few months. Two-thirds of enterprises hope to preserve their achieved level of sales, while among the rest we saw the prevalence of those that expect a further growth in sales. The production plans of enterprises, after having reached in April a historic high during the last eighteen months, are continuing to display a downward trend. By October, they had already “lost” as many as 10 points. However, no absolute fall in demand or output is expected in any of the sectors. The plans for changes in personnel numbers are also being adjusted toward a more moderate growth. The balance (or growth rate) of the expected employment changes in industry went down to +2 balance points, after having reached in Q II the level of +11 balance points.
S. Tsukhlo Foreign Trade Favorable state of affairs on the world market for minerals and growing demand for imports boost the renewal of record values of main indicators of Russia’s foreign trade. Thus. In August 2006, the national economy displayed the greatest volumes of export and import over the past 15 years.
In August 2006, the nation’s foreign trade turnover computed by the balance-of payments methodology accounted for USD 42.5 bn., or at 7.6% up vs. the prior month and 30.8% up vs. August 2005.
The volume of Russia’s export made up USD 28.1 bn., or at 8.9% more than in July 2006 and 30.3% more than in August 2005, with exports to Far Abroad accounting for USD 23.9 bn. (+ 29.3% vs. the respective period of the prior year), while that to the CIS countries- USD 4.2 bn. (+ 36.6%).
The volume of import made up USD 14.4 bn. (+5.1% vs. July 2006 and + 34% vs. August 2005), with imports from Far Abroad accounting for USD 12.1 bn. (+ 36.3% vs. August 2005) and those from the CIS countries – USD 2.3 bn. (+ 23%).
The nation’s positive balance of foreign trade operations made up USD 13.7 bn. in August 2006, or at 19.1% up vis--vis August 2005.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Balance Export Import Source: CBR RF Fig. 1. Main Indicators of Russia’s Foreign Trade (as USD bn.) The growth in export was still fueled mostly by a favorable state of affairs on the world markets.
According to CBR, the world prices, with account of the structure of Russia’s export by the group of goods that account for some 80% of the value of the nation’s export, fell in August 2006 by 0.4% Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Okt Okt Okt Okt Okt Okt Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr vs. the prior month. Between January and August 2006 they were standing at 27% higher than over the respective period of 2005.
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