At the same time, the second week of October has demonstrated a steady growth in the Russian stock market, urged by favorable situation in the world stock markets, as well as by stabilized oil prices. At the beginning of the second part of the month the growth was replaced with technical compensation, caused by an official OPEC declaration to reduce the supplies of oil to the world market. As a result, the growth of oil prices has been frozen, which have reduced the trend to further growth of the Russian stock market. In the environment of stabilized oil prices, proceeds of the oil companies might be getting lowered due to inflation of investments, especially upstream expenses, as well as RUR strengthening. Taking into consideration the important role of oil companies in the Russian stock market, oil prices stabilization made for the stabilization of the market on the whole. Moreover, some corporate news of negative character have also provided a negative impact and provoked the price drop.
160 1 800.150 1 725.The total volume of trading ($) 140 1 650.The RTS Index 130 1 575.120 1 500.110 1 425.100 1 350.90 1 275.80 1 200.70 1 125.60 1 050.50 975.40 900.30 825.20 750.10 675.600.In general, in the period of October 2 – 27 of the year of 2006 the RTS index has raised up to 2. per cent and reached the level of 1590.33 points, which makes 33.1 points in absolute terms. At the same period the turnover of sales on shares, included in the RTS index, made about USD 884.76 mln with September average daily turnover at the level of USD 38.51 mln). Therefore, the investors’ activities in the stock market in October have somewhat grown as compared with September. The indicators of maximum and minimum turnover in the market trades in October made USD 62.7 mln (as of October 13) and USD 20.2 mln (October 25).
As of monthly results (from September 27 trough October 27), practically all “blue chips” have shown positive dynamics, excluding “Surgutneftetgas” (quotation reduction by 0.77 per cent). Thus, the leading position in terms of growth took the shares of OAO UKOS, which value has grown by 21.98 per cent. They are followed by “Nornickel” and “Gaspromneft”, the values of which have grown in the period under review by 18. 49 per cent and 16.57per cent respectfully. Some lower growth rate was observed with “Tatneft” shares (11.43per cent), “Rosneft” (11.14 per cent) and “LUKOIL”(10.35 per cent). “Sberbank of Russia” shares have raised in October by 6.67 per cent, whereas “Mosenergo” shares have grown by 6.32 per cent. Positive rate of market value growth have been observed in regard to OAO “Gazprom” shares (by 4.85 per cent), RAO “UES of Russia» (by 2.1 per cent) and «Rostelecom» (by 1.41 per cent).
points mln US dollars s 01.09.19.09.05.10.21.10.09.11.25.11.22.214.171.124.24.01.09.02.28.02.17.03.04.04.20.04.10.05.26.05.14.06.30.06.18.07.03.08.21.08.06.09.22.09.10.10.26.10.Dynamics of the Russian Blue Chips from September 27 to October 27, 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Change in price (%) In October, the RTS turnover leadersTF FPT were: “Gasprom” (10.5per cent), “LUKOIL” (10.1per cent), P “RAO UES pf Russia” (9.1per cent), “Nornickel” (6.3per cent). On the basis on weekly trading, the list of turnover leaders also includes “ Rosneft”, “Sberbank of Russia” and “Polyus Zoloto” shares.
In terms of capitalization, as of October 27 the top five leaders of the domestic share market wereTF F:
Futures and options market In October the investors’ activity on the RTS futures and options market (FORTS) slightly went up as compared with the preceding month. Thus, from October 1 trough 27 the total turnover on the RTS futures and options market amounted to approximately RUR 244.83 bln (493.4 thou. of transactions;
695 mln of contracts) against RUR 218.7 bln (408.2 thou of transactions; 7.3 mln of contracts) in September.
The greatest demand, as before, was for futures: the volume of trading in futures in the period under review was RUR 212.62 bln (479.4 thou. of transactions, 6.12 mln of contracts). Options enjoyed a far lower demand, with the volume of trading at about RUR 32.21 bln (14.01 thou. of transactions and 831.75 0f contracts). The highest amount of trading in the futures market was RUR 18.47 bln (as of October 4), the lowest was RUR 8.92 bln (as of October 23).
Corporate bond market The corporate and municipal debt market in October has slightly lowered at the background of the market low trading activities, what can be explained by a stronger USD position against RUR, publication of USA positive macroeconomic statistical data, as well as the growth of the US bonds yield, traditionally effecting the dynamics of the Russian RUR bonds. However, a certain role in the secondary market stagnation had a relatively high volume of primary issue, which nevertheless has provided no negative effect on the investors’ demand. The above factors were even stronger in the second week of October. Thus, the lowered opportunity of dropping of the base interest rates in USA made not only direct impact over the Russian corporate bonds (through the yield growth of the USA government bonds), but also through the continuously decreasing USD against RUR.
PT TP On the classical market.
PT TP According to RTS data.
Ukos Tatneft Sibneft GMK LUKoil Rosneft Russia Gazprom Russia NorNikel RAO UES Mosenergo Rostelekom Sberbank of Surgutneftegas Within the third week of October, the drop in the market of corporate bonds has stopped and a gradual rise of prices has started, urged by some enhancement of the situation in the Russian foreign currency stock market, the ratings of some of which was getting up. At the same time, the growth was hindered by tax liabilities, reducing the level of bank liquidity and an increased offer in the primary market.
From October 1 to 27, the price index of corporate bonds traded on MICEXTF FPT fell by 0.08 points P (0.07 per cent), while the index of the ten most liquid corporate bonds dropped by 0.16 points (0.per cent). In the period of October 2-20 the total turnover on the MICEX corporate bond section amounted to RUR 17.32 bln, with an average daily turnover of RUR 1.15 bln (about RUR 1.5 bln of an average daily turnover in September). Thus, the average daily turnover in Russian companies' corporate bonds in October went considerably down against the September indicators.
Dynamics of corporate bond indices 122.ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-Corp126.96.36.199.112.110.108.External factors behind Russian stock market dynamics In October the international oil market prices became the top external economic factor. Uncertain forecasts of their dynamics, as well as somewhat inconsistent policy of OPEC countries have made a negative impact. As a result, in October the prices either were getting lower, or varied in the range of USD 59-60 per barrel (with temporary upward tendencies). In such situation, one could not expect a rise in the Russian market.
The situation of the world stock markets in October remained quite stable (see Table 1). All basic stock indicators of highly developed and developing countries were characterized by continued growth. Those factors have provided some support to the Russian market, which becomes rather sensitive to the market situation in the absence of significant changes in domestic market.
PT TP The calculation was based on indices of corporate bonds traded on MICEX. The indices were produced by the Zenit bank.
01.08.17.08.02.09.20.09.06.10.24.10.10.11.28.11.15.12.11.01.27.01.14.02.03.03.22.03.07.04.25.04.15.05.31.05.19.06.05.07.21.07.08.08.24.08.11.09.27.09.13.10.260% Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ Composite The RTS Index 240% 220% 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Corporate news OAO “LUKOIL” In mid-September the “OAO LUKOIL”Board of Directors has approved the decision on the issue and placement of non-convertible documentary interest shares payable to the bearer in the amount of 000 000 for the nominal cost of RUR 1000 with maturity term of five years. The bonds have ten coupon periods. The Board of Directors has also approved the decision on the issue and placement of nonconvertible documentary interest shares payable to the bearer in the amount of 6 000 000 for the nominal cost of RUR 1000 with maturity term of seven years. The bonds have fourteen coupon periods. The interest of the first coupon period will be defined by a tender among the potential buyers.
Redemption of bonds ahead of schedule and primary rights of acquisition are not foreseen. ZAO “ABN AMRO Bank” is the underwriter of the shares allocation.
Placement of RUR bonds is performed in accordance with earlier approved loan program for 2006.
Long-term RUR loan will make a positive effect on the structure of loan portfolio and allow to reduce the amount of bank loans. Moreover, long-term RUR loan looks effective in terms of macroeconomic forecasts.
On October 18 the company has published the consolidated reporting for the first half of 2006 in conformity with the International Accounting Standards (US GAAP). According to the reporting, the net profit of the company for the first half-year of 2006 made USD 4 010 mln, i.e. by 54.8 per cent more than the level of the preceding year. The EBITDA indicator (profit before interests, profit tax, depreciation) has grown up by 50.4 per cent and made USD 6.464 mln. Sales revenue has grown up to USD 33 210 mln, i.e. by 38.1 per cent. The net profit growth is explained by favorable price policy, expansion of oil extraction and refining volumes and effective control over expenditures, as well as the growth of refining margin. However, the profit growth was restrained by stronger position of RUR against USD and the higher tax burden.
ÎÀÎ “Gaspromneft” At the beginning of October the company has published consolidated financial reporting for the first half-year of 2006. According to the reporting, developed in conformity with the International Accounting Standards (US GAAP), OAO “Gaspromneft” proceeds for the first half-year of 2006 have been increased as compared with the first half-year of 2005 by 77 per cent and made USD 10.1 bln.
The gross profit (before taxes, interest and depreciation (EBITDA) for the first half-year of 2006 has grown in comparison with the relevant period of preceding year by 35 per cent and made USD 2.6 bln.
01.08.22.08.12.09.03.10.188.8.131.52.05.12.26.12.17.01.07.02.27.02.20.03.10.04.01.05.19.05.09.06.30.06.21.07.11.08.01.09.22.09.13.10.In the first half-year the net profit of ÎÀÎ “Gaspromneft” made USD1.8 bln, i.e. 26 per cent higher than revenues of the relevant period of preceding year.
ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” On October 27 The Board of Directors of RAO “UES of Russia” has approved the issue of additional shares of ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” under private offering for Gasprom group. For the additional emission, ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” is intended to involve at least USD 2.1 bln of investments. Control over investment projects will be performed by RAO “UES of Russia”, “Gasprom” group and OAO “Mosenergo”. The Board of Directors has approved a relevant agreement to be concluded between its partners. According to partnership agreement, the input of RAO “UES of Russia” and “Gasprom” group will make RUR 1 thou. from each party, the investment of ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” will be in the range of RUR 37- 60 bln. Upon completion of construction all energy objects will be transferred to the balance of ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo”.
Earlier, on September 29, the Board of Directors of RAO “UES of Russia” has authorized the representatives of the company to vote at the meeting of ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” shareholders for defining of the limit value of ordinary company shares valued at RUR 1 each, in the amount of 11.5 bln, as well as to approve the enlargement of the authorized capital of ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” by the relevant amount.
The value of shares placement will be defined as an average result of RTS and MICEX trades within six months, preceding the date of ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” shareholders’ meeting, but no less than RUR 5.
The shareholders’ meeting is planned to be held in December of the current year, shares placement – at the beginning of 2007. According to preliminary estimates, as a result of additional emission, the minimal reduction of RAO “UES of Russia” in the authorized capital of ÎÀÎ “Mosenergo” should not be less than the blocking majority ownership (25 per cent plus 1 share).
ÎÀÎ “Gasprom” On October 3, 2006 ÎÀÎ “Gasprom” has provided the consolidated interim abbreviated financial reporting (subject to audit) for the first quarter of 2006, developed in accordance with the International Standard of Financial Reporting 34 “Interim Financial Reporting”(IAS 34). A significant factor, reflected in some indicators of consolidated financial reporting for the first quarter of 2006 of “Gasprom” Group was the acquisition of OAO “Sibneft” (“OAO Gaspromneft” since June of the current year) in October of 2005.
Within three months of 2006 the sales proceeds (after excise, VAT and customs duties) has grown by RUR 246 596 mln, i.e. by 73 per cent as compared with the relevant period of 2005 and made RUR 585 777 mln. Within three months the net profit from gas sales has grown by RUR 131 490 mln, or by 47 per cent as compared with the relevant period of 2005 and made RUR 413 640 mln, which was basically explained by the growth of gas export prices to Europe and CIS countries and the increase of the volume of gas sales in physical terms.
Within the same period operational expenses have grown by RUR 134 853 mln, or by 61per cent, as opposed to the relevant period of 2005 and made RUR 355 267 mln. The profits tax has been raised by RUR 32 715 mln, i.e., by 102 per cent and made RUR 64 831 mln within three months of 2006 as compared with RUR 32 116 mln within three months of 2005. The total tax rate made 25.4 cent for the three months of 2006 against 25.8 per cent within the three months of 2005. The total proceeds of ÎÀÎ “Gasprom” shareholders for the first quarter of 2006 made RUR 185 157 mln, which is by RUR 93 529 mln, or 102 per cent higher than in the relevant period of 2005.