Wages and salaries, including con- cealed wages and salaries 46,9 48,1 45,0 47,9 47,8 47,6 43,4 45,0 44,3 44,3 42,Gross profit of the economy and gross mixed revenues 37,6 34,3 39,6 36,6 36,4 35,1 40,1 37,5 38,2 37,0 38,Net taxes on production and imports 15,5 17,6 15,4 15,4 15,8 17,4 16,5 17,6 17,5 18,7 19,Source: Rosstat The acceleration of the rates of growth in wages and salaries was affected by the rise in the minimal amount of remuneration of labor and the first class of the wages scale pertaining to the employees of the public sector from September 1 of 2005. However, the rise failed to affect the level of differentiation of the monthly wages across different sectors of the economy. The highest levels of wages and salaries were registered in the sector of extraction of fuel and energy mineral resources, production of coke and oil products, transportation via pipelines (2.5 times above the national average), and financial activities (2.5 times above the national average). The monthly gross wages and salaries of employees in the sectors of health care and social services made 64 per cent of the level of wages and salaries observed in manufacturing industries in 2005, while in the sector of education this figures made 52 per cent.
At the same time, it should be noted that this year there was observed a decline in the share of expenditures for remuneration of labor in the structure of GDP. In the structure of formation of primary revenues of the economy, the share of remuneration of hired labor declined from 45.7 per cent of GDP observed in 2005 to 42.8 per cent in the 3rd quarter of 2005. This development is evidence hat in the situation of growth in prices and tariffs on the services provided by natural monopolies, the increase in the tax burden on export oriented manufacturing industries occurring in the situation of limited possibilities to renew technologies and equipment enterprises and organizations orient towards reduction of social costs and expenditures for reproduction of labor force. Implementation of such strategies may be justified by the existing trend towards an outpacing growth in wages and salaries in comparison with the productivity of labor observed at the background of decelerating rates of economic development.
Since wages and salaries of hired workers makes almost 70 per cent of the aggregate household incomes, one of the major factors determining the parameters of social development is the level of employment. According to the data presented by Rosstat with respect to the sample employment survey of the population, the number of the employed in the economy made 69.6 million in the 3rd quarter of 2005 increasing by 1.2 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The total number of the unemployed calculated in accordance with the ILO methodology has declined by almost 600 thousand persons since January of 2005 and by August of made 4.8 million, what makes almost 6.4 per cent of the economically active population as compared with 7.2 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The coefficient of tension (the number of unemployed citizens registered with employment agencies per vacancy) has declined from 2.9 in January of this year to 1.9 observed in August of this year.
The calculation of forecast values of macroeconomic indicators until end-2005, carried out by IET, demonstrates that at the given level of prices of hydrocarbons and mineral products, as well as increase in exports by 34.0 per cent, the expected growth in GDP will make 105.7 per cent by the end of the year, while investment in fixed assets and industrial output will be at 109.8 per cent and 104.6 per cent as compared with the figures registered in the preceding year. In 2005, the average annual number of the unemployed will make 5.0 million as compared with 5.9 million registered in 2004.
O. I. Izryadnova IET Business Survey: Industry in October of The results of the October survey of enterprises fail to justify the hopes of a fast spurt of the Russian industry in the end of 2005. The observed decline in demand and negative reevaluation of forecasts of sales has made enterprises to adjust their production plans and refrain from employment of new workers in a few next months.
In September, according to the official date the rates of industrial output increased by 5.2 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year (in comparison with the figures observed in August of 2005 the index of industrial output made 101.4 per cent) at the expense of a significant increase in the rates of growth demonstrated by manufacturing industries – up to 9.1 per cent, while the stagnation registered across extracting industries prevailed. Nevertheless, over the three quarters the amount of industrial output grew by only 4 per cent, while, according to the Development Center, by the end of the year the growth will be at or below 4.5 per cent taking into account the low probability of a spurt in extracting industries.
The results of the October survey of enterprises fail to justify the hopes of a fast spurt of the Russian industry in the end of 2005.
The demand for the products of the Russian industry has already begun to decline: the share of reports about decreasing sales has exceeded the share of questionnaires reporting a growth. It is the first time since 1998 that such a situation has been registered in October, even in the most difficult year of this period – 2002. The adjustment of the data for the seasonal factor supported this conclusion. The rates of growth observed in October of 2005 have turned out to be the worst since August of 2002. The absolute decline in sales was registered in the fuel industry, chemistry, petrochemistry, mechanical engineering, and food industry.
In October, the rates of growth in output did not principally change in comparison with the figures registered in September: the balance of initial data improved by 1 p. p., while the adjustment for the seasonal factors demonstrated a 3 p. p. improvement, and adjustment for random fluctuations resulted in the same 1 p. p. in October, the highest rates of growth in output were observed in fuel industry and ferrous metallurgy. The respective indicator practically did not change in mechanical engineering and light industry, while a certain deceleration of the rates of growth in output was registered in food industry. The fact that the rates of growth in output persisted at the background of deceleration (and even decline in absolute terms) of the rates of growth in sales resulted in the deterioration of the output / demand ratio to 59 per cent, while in August this indicator was registered at 66 per cent. The best ratios between output and demand was registered in October in nonferrous metallurgy (92 per cent), electrical power engineering (72 per cent), and light industry (72 per cent). At the moment, output outpaces demand at 29 per cent of enterprises on the average; the leaders in the terms of negative trends are ferrous metallurgy (54 per cent), food industry (35 per cent), and mechanical engineering (32 per cent).
In the 4th quarter of 2005, the main obstacle to growth in output was the lack of working capital, the frequency of reports mentioning this obstacle increased to 50 per cent and became equal to the frequency of mentioning of low domestic demand (49 per cent). The third most frequently mentioned obstacle to growth in output was the lack of labor (33 per cent of enterprises). The negative influence of imports remained at the same level: imports hinder 26 per cent of enterprises, most frequently, in ferrous metallurgy (48 per cent), light industry (44 per cent), chemistry and petrochemistry (30 per cent), and mechanical engineering (25 per cent).
In spite of urgent problems relating to sales, enterprises could avoid hoarding of finished stocks.
Moreover, the monitoring demonstrated that in 2005 producers have consistently reduced their finished stocks and by the 4th quarter the balance of the respective changes declined to -17 per cent, what is evidence of a very intensive reduction of finished stocks. As a result, in October the balance of evaluations (above the norm – below the norm) declined to + 5 per cent and was registered as the minimal value over the last two years. At the same time, the share of evaluations of finished stocks as “normal” across all industries has reached 66 per cent, what is a next positive record; so many enterprises satisfied with their finished stocks were last time registered in 1992.
Yet another positive signal was the persistence of previous evaluation of the financial and economic standing of enterprises. The balance of this indicator has remained at the level of -5 per cent for the second quarter running, what is the record for the whole period of monitoring. As before, the main part of enterprises (71 per cent) finds their standing satisfactory. At the same time, the share of “good” evaluations reached a next absolute record (12 per cent) in the 4th quarter of 2005.
The forecasts of changes in demand have again begun to be less confident. The balance of expected changes in sales not adjusted for the seasonal factors has become negative for the first time since 2002: forecasts of decline in sales prevailed across industries. At the level of individual industries this situation was observed in fuel industry, metallurgical industries, and light industry. The adjustment of the data for the seasonal factors improved the forecasts of demand, however, the forecasts were worse than those submitted in September.
Production plans of enterprises have also become less optimistic. The initial balance of expected changes in output has turned out to be the works in 2005. The adjustment of the data for the seasonal factors improved the balance by 5 p. p.; however, the negative change in comparison with the figures registered in September prevailed. At the level of individual industries, the revision of production plans resulting in less intensive growth or absolute decline in output was registered across all industries with the exception of metallurgical industries and food industry.
Forecasts of changes in employment have also become less confident and for the first time in there were demonstrated negative values: across industries the number of enterprises planning reduction of personnel grew. It should be noted that such intensive reduction has not been planned over the whole post-default period.
S. V. Tsukhlo Oil and Gas Sector In January-September 2005 the world oil prices were extremely high, which allowed to sharply increase the profits from export. In parallel with that, the oil production growth rates fell down dramatically. The situation on the world oil market makes possible to expect in the short term maintenance of the high level of world oil prices and favorable external conditions for forming the revenue side of the state budget.
In January-September 2005 the world oil prices, which exerted dominant influence on the situation in the oil and gas sector of Russian economy were at extremely high level, and over the last few months hit all-time high in nominal terms. On average, over the nine months of 2005 the world oil prices exceeded by 75% the average level of previous three years. Major causes of such a situation were high growth rates of the world economy, in particular, the U.S. and China’s economies, the low level of idle production capacities for oil production which prevented quick growth of oil production for satisfying growing demand for oil. Actually, OPEC refused to maintain the world oil prices within the targeted pricing rate USD 22-28 a barrel, set earlier by this organization, it pursued a policy of modest rise in oil production within the frame of available production capacities. At the March (2005) OPEC conference it was announced on the rise of oil production by OPEC member countries in thousand. barrel a day, however, such a measure had no explicit effect on the dynamics of oil prices.
In June 2005 OPEC announced that OPEC member countries are to boost the total production quotas by 500,000 barrels a day to 28,0 million, starting from July 1, 2005. Though such a rise proved also insufficient. Of late, boosting of world oil prices was influenced by Katrina and Rita hurricanes, that led to stoppage of oil production and damage of energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico. As a consequence, in the 3d qu7arter of 2005 Brent crude reached USD 61,5 a barrel, while Russian Urals – USD 57.3 a barrel. The average price of OPEC oil basket throughout the 2005 considerably exceeded the targeted pricing marginal rate set by the organization, and amounted, and in the 3d quarter amounted on average USD 56.3 a barrel. In the 3d quarter of 2005 the average price of Russian Urals on the world (European) market was by 53% higher than the level of the respective period of the prior year (Table 1).
The development of the oil and gas sector of the economy of Russia in January-September was characterized by maintenance of the oil products and oil production growth trend that existed in 2000-2004, however, the oil production growth rates fell dramatically in 2005. In January-September 2005 an increment in the volume of oil production, including gas condensate made up, in comparison with the respective period of the previous year made up only 2,1%, while in 2002-2004 it reached 8,911% a year (Table 2). In January-September 2005 the volume of primary oil refining increased by 6,0%, while the refining intensity rate made up 71,8%, which roughly corresponded to the level of the respective period of the prior year.
Table World Oil Prices in 2002-2005, $/barrel.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 I qu. II qu. July August September Brent oil price, 25.0 28.8 38.2 47.5 51.6 57.6 64.1 62.Great Britain Urals oil price, 23.7 27.0 34.5 43.1 48.4 55.0 58.6 58.Russia Price of OPEC 24.3 28.1 36.1 43.7 49.5 53.1 57.8 57.oil basket Source: OECD International Energy Agency, OPEC.
Table Production of Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas in 2000-2005, in % to the Respective Period of the Previous Year 2002 2003 2004 JanuarySeptember Oil, including gas condensate 109,0 111,0 108,9 102,Primary oil refining 103,3 102,7 102,6 106,Automobile fuel 104,9 101,2 103,8 106,Diesel fuel 104,7 102,0 102,7 108,Fuel oil 107,1 100,3 97,8 105,Natural gas, billion cub. m. 101,9 103,4 101,6 99,Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
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