437.46 billion and Rub. 439.81 billion respectively, or were at 22.69 per cent and 21.07 per cent of the monthly GDP amount. The expenditures borne by the RF federal budget in August and September of 2005 made respectively Rub. 300.95 billion (or 15.61 per cent of GDP) and Rub. 445.76 billion (or 21.35 per cent of GDP), while the surplus of the RF federal budget was registered at the level of Rub.
136.50 billion and Rub. 5.95 billion, what respectively made 7.08 per cent and 0.29 per cent in terms of the shares in GDP. Therefore, basing on these data it should be noted that there was registered a sharp increase in budgetary expenditures at the background of a stable level of revenues. Therefore, in September for the first time in the year the expenditures of the federal budget exceeded revenues, what resulted in a budget deficit by the end of the month.
For the structure of revenues over the period under observation, see Table 1.
Amounts of revenues of the RF federal budget in July, August, and September of 2005 (in per cent of GDP, in terms of cash basis execution) Cash basis execution July August September Taxes and other payments adminis11,82% 11,59% 10,96% tered by the Federal Tax Service Taxes and other payments adminis9,22% 10,01% 9,36% tered by the Federal Customs Service Receipts administered by the Federal Agency for Management of Federal 0,16% 0,27% 0,28% Property Revenues of the federal budget admin1,16% 0,81% 0,46% istered by other federal structures Total revenues 22,35% 22,69% 21,07% As it is demonstrated by Table 1, in September of 2005, the bulk of the tax revenues was associated with the taxes and other payments administered by the RF Federal Tax Service (10.96 per cent of GDP), as well as the taxes and other payments administrated by the RF Federal Customs Service (9.per cent of GDP). It should be noted that in spite of the general decline in revenues across the two revenue items, the difference between the respective figures was constant and made about 1.5 p. p. of GDP. The rest of tax generated revenues fell within the receipts administered by the Federal Agency for Management of Federal Property and the revenues of the RF federal budget administered by other federal structures. It should be noted that in September the amount of revenues associated with the last item significantly declined in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding months. Therefore, the total amount of these revenues in per cent of GDP made about 0.74 per cent, what somewhat determined the total decline in the tax revenues of the federal budget in comparison with the figures registered in August of this year.
For the preliminary data on the financing of the expenditures borne by the RF federal budget in January through September of 2005 presented by the RF Finance Ministry, see Table 2.
Amounts of financing of the expenditures borne by the RF federal budget in January through September of 2005 (in per cent of GDP) Financing of expenditures Jan. – Jul. Jan. – Aug. Jan. – Sept.
Federal issues 3,23% 3,03% 2,88% Including expenditures associated with the servicing of 1,66% 1,47% 1,34% the public and municipal debt National defense 3,52% 3,16% 2,88% National security and law enforcement 2,63% 2,42% 2,37% National economy 1,15% 1,17% 1,17% Housing and public utilities 0,03% 0,03% 0,03% Environmental protection 0,03% 0,03% 0,02% Education 0,94% 0,85% 0,80% Culture, cinematography, and mass media 0,25% 0,24% 0,24% Health care and sports 0,53% 0,49% 0,49% Social policy 1,06% 0,98% 0,91% Interbudgetary transfers 7,23% 6,74% 7,56% Total expenditures 20,59% 19,14% 19,35% It should be noted that by the end of September the share of financed expenditures of the federal budget in GDP made 19.35 per cent, what was somewhat above the respective indicator registered by the end of August of 2005. The largest amounts of financing were observed in the sphere of interbudgetary transfers (7.56 per cent of GDP), national defense (2.88 per cent of GDP), federal issues (2.per cent of GDP), including the servicing of the public and municipal debt (1.17 per cent), and national security and law enforcement (2.37 per cent). Other expenditure items totaled to about 3.66 per cent of GDP.
Execution of the RF consolidated budget in January through August of 2005 (in % of GDP) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% 25,2% 25,4% 25,4% 25,5% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% 31,7% 32,0% 32,1% 32,1% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% 28,4% 29,3% 29,7% 31,1% Deficit/ 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% 3,3% 2,7% 2,4% 1,0% 14,6% surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 25,6% 24,4% 25,6% 27,4% 27,1% 26,0% 26,1% 25,7% 5,0% 5,0% 5,1% 25,2% Revenues 32,0% 30,3% 31,5% 33,4% 33,6% 32,2% 32,2% 31,6% 0,9% 0,8% 0,7% 31,1% Expenditures 20,7% 25,3% 27,7% 28,8% 28,8% 28,6% 28,7% 28,5% 8,2% 7,8% 7,9% 29,7% Deficit/ 11,3% 5,0% 3,8% 4,5% 4,7% 3,5% 3,6% 3,1%,7% 3,0% 2,8% 1,4% surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 6,1% 21,8% 27,4% 27,4% 26,6% 27,2%27,1% 26,4% 26.5% 26.9% 26,8% Revenues 30,6% 28,2% 29,8% 32,9% 32,9% 32,5% 33,1%32,9% 31,9% 32.0% 32.3% 32,3% Expenditures 18,5% 22,8% 25,4% 27,3% 26,9% 27,0% 27,0%26,9% 26,0% 25.9% 26.1% 27,8% Deficit/ 12,1% 5,4% 4,4% 5,6% 6,0% 5,5% 6,1% 6,0% 5,9% 6.1% 6.2% 4,5% surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Revenues 48,8% 40,3% 40,3% 40,8% 38,8% 38,2% 37,6%37,0% Expenditures 22,2% 23,3% 24,9% 27,1% 26,5% 26,6% 26,7%26,6% Deficit/ 26,5% 17,0% 15,4% 13,7% 12,3% 11,6% 11,0%10,5% surplus In January through August of 2005, the revenues of the RF consolidated budget made 37.0 per cent of GDP as compared with 32.9 per cent of GDP registered in the respective period of 2004. The expenditures of the RF consolidated budget somewhat decreased in comparison with the respective indicator observed in 2005 (26.9 per cent) and made 26.6 per cent of GDP. In January through August of 2005, the surplus of the RF consolidated budget made 10.5 per cent of GDP, what was significantly above the indicator registered in 2004 (6.0 per cent). Therefore, in 2005 there was observed a significant increase in the revenues of the RF consolidated budget at the background of practically constant expenditures, what resulted in such a significant increase in the surplus of the RF consolidated budget.
According to the data as on October 1, 2005, the amount of financial reserves accumulated in the RF Stabilization Fund was registered at Rub. 960.7 billion as compared with Rub. 832.1 billion registered as on September 1 of this year.
Major developments in the budgetary sphere.
In the beginning of October, in his interview A. Kudrin, the RF Finance Minister stated that in the nearest future financial resources of the RF Stabilization Fund may be placed in foreign securities. At present there exist a number of disputes with the RF Central Bank concerning certain terms of such a placement, therefore, the placement of financial reserves is delayed. Besides, the Minister stated that in the future the financial resources of the RF Stabilization Fund can be used to finance the increasing expenditures of the RF Pension Fund resulting from the deteriorating demographic situation in Russia.
Answering a question concerning the prospects of the approval of the law on the budget for year 2006, the Minister noted that the federal budget should be approved by the State Duma in the second reading without significant changes. At the same time, he also noted that the amount of budget funds earmarked for the implementation of initiatives of the RF President might be increased to Rub. 5 to billion in the budget for year 2006. It should be noted that initially in the budget for year 2006 it has been planned to earmark about Rub. 108 billion for these purposes.
In October, there were also published the comments of the RF Finance Ministry representatives with respect to the proposals to reduce the VAT rates to 13 per cent. Thus, S. Shatalov, the deputy Finance Minister, stated that the RF Finance Ministry declaims such a reduction of the tax rate. According to the deputy Finance Minister, the Finance Ministry preferred reductions of direct taxes, while indirect taxes, especially in the situation of elastic demand are not a very great burden on businesses and ordinary consumers. The lack of a clear relationship between the VAT rate and the rates of economic growth, as well as a rather high level of rates observed in the countries of Eastern Europe, which demonstrate high rates of economic growth are arguments against the use of this mechanism for the creation of incentives for the development of the Russian economy.
D. Polevoy Monetary Policy in the Russian Federation In September, the value of CPI made 0.3 per cent, what was below the rates of increase in prices observed in the respective period of the preceding year by 0.1 p. p. However, for the first time since September of 2004 nonfood goods made the most significant contribution in the growth in prices. In September, the growth in monetary supply in the Russian Federation continued: the monetary base in the narrow definition increased by 1.5 per cent. By mid-October the amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves made US $ 162.7 billion.
In September of 2005, the value of the consumer price index made 0.3 per cent (as compared with 0.4 per cent registered in September of 2004, see Fig. 1). For the first time since September of nonfood goods made the most significant contribution in the growth in prices: the respective prices increased by 1.1 per cent (as compared with 0.9 per cent registered in September of 2004). So significant rise of prices of nonfood items was a result of a sharp growth in prices of gasoline (+ 7.9 per cent). However, it seems that in a few next months car gasoline should not grow at so fast rates, both due to the seasonal factor (in the autumn and winter the demand for car gasoline traditionally declines) and because of the agreement made between the RF Government and leading oil companies about the freezing of gasoline prices.
In September, prices of paid consumer services increased on the average by 0.9 per cent: it should be noted that these prices have grown at this rate for the last 6 months. In September of 2005, the most significant rise in prices was observed with respect to the services provided by education (+ 7.8 per cent), communications (+ 3.5 per cent), and medical services (+ 1.7 per cent). The increase in the prices of HPU services was at or below 0.3 per cent in August. However, it should be noted that so significant increase in the prices of educational services was primarily caused by the growth in respective costs at the beginning of the new education year.
In September, the prices of food products declined by 0.7 per cent (no change was registered in September of 2004). The drop in prices was primarily caused by the continuing decline in prices of fruits and vegetables (by 11.6 per cent). Besides, in September there were reduced prices of white sugar (by 2.4 per cent). As concerns other groups of food products, by the end of the month the most significant rise in prices was registered with respect to milk and milk products (+ 1.4 per cent), meats and poultry (+ 1.1 per cent), and butter (+ 1.1 per cent).
Since the beginning of 2005, the growth in the Base Consumer Price Index (BCPI) 3 has been below 6.3 per cent (the rate registered in the respective period of the preceding year made 6.8 per cent). According to the bulletin of model based estimates of short time forecasts of the RF social and economic indicators, in October the value of CPI should make 1.3 per cent and 1.2 per cent in November.
In September of this year, the monetary base of the Russian Federation (in the broad definition4) increased by RUR 121.6 billion and made RUR 2.55 trillion (+ 5 per cent). As on September 1, 2005, the amount of the monetary base of the Russian Federation (in the broad definition) was at RUR 2.trillion. Below, the dynamics of the monetary base (in the broad definition) will be analyzed across its components.
The amount of cash in circulation (as adjusted for cash balances of crediting organizations) made RUR 1.86 trillion as on October 1 (+ 2.4 per cent as compared with the level registered on September 1 of this year). On the same date, the amount of accounts of crediting organizations with the Central Bank of Russia made RUR 380.4 billion (+ 20.1 per cent), the amount of mandatory reserves was at RUR 150 billion (+ 3.7 per cent), the amount of banks’ deposits in the Bank of Russia made RUR 64.billion (+ 26.8 per cent), the amount of the Bank of Russia bonds held by crediting organizations made RUR 87 billion (- 6 per cent), the amount of the Central Bank’s liabilities related to the reverse repurchase of securities was at RUR 0 billion (have not changed in comparison with the figures registered as on September 1 of this year), and the funds transferred to the Bank of Russia as the reserves related to foreign exchange operations made RUR 7.4 billion (+ 17.5 per cent).
The Base Consumer Price Index (BCPI) is an indicator reflecting the inflation rate on the consumer market. It leaves out of account the seasonal (prices of fruits and vegetables) and administrative (tariffs on regulated types of services etc.) factors, calculated by the Statistics Service of the RF.
The RF Monetary Base in broad definition includes cash in circulation, the Ruble denominated funds in mandatory reserves relating to the borrowings of credit organizations, and funds in credit organizations’ correspondent accounts and commercial banks' deposits with the Bank of Russia.
The Growth Rate of the CPI in 2002 - 2004 (% per month).
An increase in the amount of cash in circulation observed this September (+ 2.4 per cent), as well as the growth in the amount of mandatory reserves (+ 3.7 per cent), resulted in the expansion of the monetary base in the narrow definition (cash plus mandatory reserves) 5 by 1.5 per cent (see Fig. 2).
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