In the first six months of this year, the inflow of capital from USA declined by 32.4 % in comparison with the respective period of the preceding year (the first six months of 2002 – US $ 554 million), and French investment decreased by 26 % (the first six months of 2002 – US $ 492 million), while investment from other countries grew. For instance, in the first six months of this year, German investment made US $ 1.billion (3.4 times above the respective indicator in the first six months of 2001), and UK investment made US $ 906 million (+ 54.6 % as compared with the figures registered in the first six months of 2001).
Geographical structure of investment in the first six months of Geographical structure of investment in the first six months of 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% the Netherlands USA Cyprus UK Germany France Other countries 2000, % 2001, % 2002, % 2000,US $ mil. 2001, US $ mil. 2002, US $ mil.
Source: RF Goskomstat.
In the first six months of 2002, investment from USA were primarily invested in trade and public catering (49.3 % of the total US investment), and industry (35.2 %). As concerns industry, American investors were most interested in mechanical engineering (46.7 % of the total US investment in industry) and food industry US $ mil.
% of the total (33.3 %). As concerns the structure of accumulated capital, US investment in the Russia’s economy were dominated by direct investment, which made about US $ 4.1 billion (76.5 % of the total amount of accumulated investment from USA).
The major part of investment from Germany (US $ 1.48 billion, or 91.1 % of the total German investment) was made in trade and public catering (68.3 %) and industry (22.9 %). As concerns the industrial sector, German investors preferred metallurgy, which received US $ 194 million, or 52.2 % of the total German investment in the Russia’s industry in the first six months of 2002.
An alarming fact at the background of growing investment in the Russian economy in the first six months of 2002 is that in the same period Russian investments abroad made US $ 10 billion, what is by 20.1 % above the amount of foreign investment in Russia. In the first six months of 2001, the Russian investment in other countries made US $ 6.48 billion, while foreign investment in RF made US $ 6.68 billion.
E. Ilyukhina The Real Sector: Factors and Trends According to the preliminary data collected in January through September of 2002, GDP increased by 4.% in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The macroeconomic situation was characterized by the persisting trends towards the expansion of internal and external demand. The amount of industrial output has increased by 4.0 % in comparison with the figures registered in January through February of 2001, while construction increased by 2.7 %. As concerns the sector of services, trade and communications developed most intensively. The index of growth in retail trade turnover made 108.9 %, while for communications this indicator made 113.2 % in comparison with the level observed in January through September of 2001. The positive dynamics of development of base economic sectors and the favorable external economic situation determined the nature of shifts in the real sector.
Figure 1 Changes in GDP dynamics as broken down by the components of final consumption in 2000 through 2002, in % of the respective period of the preceding year 2000/I II кв III кв IV кв 2001/I II кв III кв IV кв 2002/I II кв III кв кв кв кв ---ВВП инвестиции в основной капитал конечное потребление чистый экспорт GDP investment in fixed assets inal consumption Net exports This year, the trend towards the expansion of internal demand fixed since the 4th quarter of 1999 persists.
This year, the Russia’s economy maintains the trend towards the outpacing growth of internal demand as compared with external demand, what was first observed in the 4th quarter of 2000. It shall be noted that while in the first six months of 2001 economic growth was determined by the intensive increase in investment, this year the structure of final demand changes on the impact of the outpacing growth in final household consumption. In the GDP structure, the share of investment in fixed assets declined by 2.1 p.p. in comparison with the figures registered in January through September of 2001 and made 13.6 %.
The final household consumption increased by 4.8 % in comparison with the first half-year of 2001, while rates of growth in investment in fixed assets were at 2.5 %. A factor behind the expansion of final consumption was a gradual improvement of the social parameters of economic development. There is observed accelerated rates of growth in real household incomes as compared with figures registered in January through September of 2001. The development of this trend is a logical result of the continuing strategy aimed at the recovery of pre-crisis living standards. In January through September, the increase in real household incomes made 7.1 %, real wages and salaries grew by 17.9 %, while real gross monthly pensions increased by 18.9 % as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year.
An additional factor behind the growth in final consumption was the trend towards abating inflation rates.
In January through September of 2002, inflation on the consumer market made 10.3 % as compared with 13.9 % in the respective period of 2001. At the same time, in August prices grew by 0.4 %. The decline in inflation rates was determined by the implementation of balanced fiscal and monetary policies, surplus of the federal budget, and decelerating growth of money supply in 2002 as compared with indicators of 2001.
An important factor facilitating lower inflationary expectations was the predictability of the situation related to the measures aimed at the curbing of growth in prices and tariffs set by the subjects of natural monopolies, which were made public by the government.
This year, another significant aspect of economic policy is the outpacing rates of growth in net exports as compared with the dynamics of GDP and internal demand. In the 2nd quarter of this year, the increase in net exports made 6.4 % as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year.
An analysis of internal and external factors and conditions of economic growth in the 3rd quarter of reveals that the recovery of favorable business situation on world markets of fuel and raw materials was a factor facilitating the acceleration of the rates of economic growth. The increase in industrial output in the 3rd quarter as compared with the 2nd quarter made 5.5 % and was by 1 p.p. above the level registered in the respective period of the preceding year. Accelerating growth in industry was initiated by both increasing output in export oriented industries, and persisting high rates of growth in the sectors of the consumption complex primarily oriented towards the domestic market.
The output of fuel energy increased by 6.1 %, non-ferrous metallurgy – by 8.9 %, consumption complex – by 7.3 % in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. As concerns the investment complex, there the index of production made 103.3 % as compared to January through September of 2001. While in January through September of 2001 the increase in the output mechanical engineering made 7.7 %, outpacing the rates of industrial growth by 2.5 p.p., in the respective period of 2002 the situation is opposite. Output of mechanical engineering increased by 3.1 %, while the output of industry on the whole grew by 4.0 %.
The dynamics of output across branches of mechanical engineering are volatile. This year, the trend towards an outpacing rate of growth in automobile manufacturing in comparison with the output of mechanical engineering recovered again.
Table The dynamics of output across branches of mechanical engineering in January through September of 2000 – 2002, in % of the respective period of the preceding year.
2000 2001 Mechanical engineering and metal working 116,0 107,7 103,Including by branch:
Metallurgical engineering 144,1 90,8 70,Chemical and oil engineering 123,0 125,6 87,Hoisting and transport engineering 148,1 123,5 92,Railroad engineering 105,2 121,1 123,Electrical engineering 139,3 113,7 94,Machine tool and tool manufacturing 117,3 98,0 85,Instrument making 136,1 100,6 92,Automobile industry 104,0 98,6 103,Tractor and agricultural machinery industry 153,8 134,9 82,Mechanical engineering for light and food industries and the industry of household appliances 108,9 104,3 115,Communications engineering 430 85,6 169,Source: RF Goskomstat It shall be noted that this year mechanical engineering is growing at an outpacing rate in comparison with the general dynamics of investment, what enhances the possibility of transformational shifts in the reproduction of fixed capital. However, the lack of significant changes in the sectoral structure of investment activity has a strong negative effect on the dynamics of the investment process. In the Russia’s economy, fuel industry maintains its dominating positions in the structure of investment, its share makes 15 % of the total investment in the fixed assets of the economy at large and 51.2 % of the total investment in industry; at the same time, more than 1/3 of investment flows in oil extracting industry. Taking into account the traditionally high concentration of profits in the export oriented industries of the oil and raw materials sectors and the lack of mechanisms of inter-sectoral flow of capitals, it may be hardly expected that the rate of investment would increase and radical changes would occur in the nature of the reproduction of fixed capital.
The share of investment industries makes 8.5 %, while the consumer complex branches account for 7.7 % of the total amount of investment in industry.
In 2002, at the background of decelerating rates of investment in fuel industry, there deteriorated practically all aggregate characteristics of reproduction of fixed capital. Shrinking investment demand on the part of export-oriented fuel and raw materials industries determined by falling export revenues negatively affected the character of business activity in the investment complex. As a result, in January through September of 2002, investments in fixed assets grew only by 2.5 % as compared with 7.8 % registered in the respective period of the preceding year. Given the current trends of investment demand and the level of enterprises’ profits, there are no grounds to expect that rates of investment will accelerate by the end of the year. Even taking into account the traditional surge in investment in the 4th quarter, determined by the completion of the yearly construction cycle, the expected growth in investment will make 103.0 % to 103.% as compared with the levels observed in the preceding year.
O. Izryadnova IET Business Survey: Industry In October, the growth of cash sales in industry stopped. The balance of responses (growth – decrease) dropped by 11 points; however, the positive value of balance was kept as the growth in effective demand continued. In October, negative balances (absolute decrease in sales) were registered in ferrous metallurgy, mechanical engineering, and construction. Therefore, the September surge in sales (+ 15 % after + 3 % observed in August) became the best value registered over the last 24 months.
However, the slowing down growth in sales does not trouble industrial enterprises as yet. Moreover, the share of responses evaluating cash demand as “normal” increased from 38 % in August and September to %. The maximal values of this indicator are registered in non-ferrous metallurgy (86 %), power engineering (74 %), and the forestry complex (69 %). This fact may be confirmed by the results of the quarterly monitoring of evaluations of barter and other non-cash sales. In the beginning of 4th quarter, the balance of evaluations of non-cash types of demand (“above” – “below the norm”) increased from –4 % to –2 % for barter and from –8 % to –3 % for promissory notes and offsets. I.e., although the opinion that amounts of non-cash transactions is insufficient prevails across the Russia’s industries, the respective evaluations increased by 2 and 5 points over the quarter.
The dynamics of barter did not change in October. The decline in direct barter operations was relatively stable in the last seven months. In the last months, about 9 % of industrial output were sold via barter operations. The forestry complex (16 %) and construction industry (14 %) account for the largest numbers of such transactions. The intensity of decrease in promissory note and offset transactions declines for the second month running. At present the balance makes –1 %, i.e. the decrease in these types of operations has practically stopped. About 12 % of industrial output is sold via promissory notes and offsets.
The very recent deceleration of the decrease in profits stopped in October. The balance again became significantly negative. Profits continued to grow only in power engineering. The most intensive decline was registered in chemistry, petro-chemistry, non-ferrous metallurgy, and the forestry complex.
The output has been also affected by the slowing down growth in sales. The rates of increase in output rose for four months, however, in October, the balance decreased by 9 points. Decelerating rates of growth were registered across all industries with the exception of power engineering, while in metallurgy and food industry there was observed an absolute decline in output.
The overall finished stocks accumulated by industry have not changed recently (the balance has stabilized at zero). This development allowed to maintain stable evaluations of finished stocks (above – below the norm). However, across individual industries the picture is rather diverse. A growth in finished stocks was registered in chemistry, petro-chemistry, and mechanical engineering. In other industries, the reports on a decline in stocks were more numerous, especially many such responses were registered in light industry and the forestry complex. However, the scarcity of finished stocks prevails only in the forestry complex.
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