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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES October 2002 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2002 © Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, ИД № 02079 от 19 июня 2000 г.

© © © 5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru The State of the Federal Budget.................................................................................................................... 3 Monetary Policy............................................................................................................................................ 6 Financial Markets.......................................................................................................................................... 7 Foreign investment in the Russia’s economy.............................................................................................. 15 The Real Sector: Factors and Trends........................................................................................................... 19 IET Business Survey: Industry.................................................................................................................... 21 Russian Sugar Market in 2002: Outcomes of Three Years of State Regulation......................................... 22 Foreign Trade.............................................................................................................................................. 24 Unification of corporate governance rules in Russia and EU: formal and real criteria.............................. 27 2 The State of the Federal Budget According to the preliminary estimates of the Finance Ministry, the federal budget in January through August of 2002 was executed as follows: revenues – Rb. 1572.2 billion, expenditures (actual financing) – Rb. 1436.0 billion.

Table 1 The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % of GDP, in comparable prices).

XII`01 I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`Revenues Corporate profit tax 2,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 1,9% 1,7% 1,7% 1,7% Personal income tax 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 0,0% 4,9% 4,4% 4,0% 3,9% 3,6% 3,5% 3,5% 3,3% Tax on foreign trade and foreign trade 9,4% 9,3% 9,1% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,1% operations Other taxes, duties and payments 7,1% 6,9% 6,4% 6,8% 6,9% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% Total- taxes and charges 2,2% 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,3% 2,2% 2,1% Non- tax revenues 3,7% 3,2% 3,3% 3,2% 3,0% 2,9% 2,9% 2,9% 2,8% Revenues, total 0,6% 9,7% 9,1% 8,7% 8,7% 8,4% 1,8% 2,0% 2,0% Expenditure 16,2% 20,4% 19,6% 19,6% 19,9% 19,6% 19,3% 19,4% 18,9% Public administration 1,4% 2,1% 1,6% 1,4% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% National defense 17,6% 22,4% 21,2% 20,9% 21,2% 20,9% 20,6% 20,9% 20,4% International activities Judicial power 0,5% 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% Law enforcement and security activities 2,7% 1,0% 1,5% 1,9% 2,3% 2,4% 2,5% 2,5% 2,5% Fundamental research 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% Services provided for the national economy 0,1% 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% Social services 1,6% 0,6% 0,9% 1,0% 1,2% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% Servicing of public debt 0,3% 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Other expenditure 1,3% 0,1% 0,3% 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% 0,8% 0,8% Expenditure, total 2,3% 3,7% 4,8% 4,8% 5,3% 5,2% 5,2% 5,2% 5,1% Loans, redemption exclusive 2,6% 2,0% 3,4% 3,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,4% Expenditure and loans, redemption exclusive 3,0% 2,9% 3,3% 3,6% 3,9% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,9% Budget deficit (-) 14,7% 10,9% 15,0% 16,1% 16,9% 17,1% 17,2% 17,2% 17,1% Domestic financing 2,9% 11,5% 6,2% 4,8% 4,3% 3,8% 3,4% 3,7% 3,3% Other taxes, duties and payments -0,1% -11,2% -4,6% -2,7% -2,0% -1,8% -1,6% -1,8% -1,3% Total- taxes and charges -2,8% -0,4% -1,6% -2,1% -2,3% -1,9% -1,8% -1,9% -1,9% Non- tax revenues -2,9% -11,5% -6,2% -4,8% -4,3% -3,8% -3,4% -3,7% -3,3% Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, actual financing).

I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`02 IX`Total 22,2% 21,0% 20,9% 21,2% 20,8% 20,5% 20,5% 20,5% 20,0% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% National defense 1,7% 2,4% 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% International activities 0,4% 0,2% 0,4% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Law enforcement and security 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,5% 1,6% 1,9% 1,6% 1,6% activities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for the national 0,3% 0,6% 0,8% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,1% 1,0% economy Social services 5,0% 5,7% 5,3% 5,9% 5,7% 5,5% 5,6% 5,4% 5,2% Servicing of public debt 1,9% 3,4% 3,4% 2,7% 2,5% 2,4% 2,6% 2,4% 2,4% Other expenditure 3,5% 4,0% 3,9% 4,0% 4,6% 4,2% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% Total expenditure 15,5% 18,7% 18,6% 19,1% 19,4% 18,9% 19,1% 18,6% 18,2% Профицит (+) / дефицит (-) 6,8% 2,3% 2,3% 2,1% 1,4% 1,6% 1,4% 1,8% 1,7% The data on the execution of the federal budget up to August of 2002 are presented in Table 11 and 2. As of September 1, 2002, the revenues of the federal budget accounted for 20.4 % of GDP, including tax Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may be subject to revision.

revenues at 18.9 %, while expenditures made 17.1 % of GDP (18.6 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding2), including non-interest ones – 14.7 % of GDP (16.2 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding). The level of budget surplus accounted for 3.3 % of GDP (1.8 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding).

The indicators of revenues collected in January through August of 2002 somewhat decreased as compared with the figures registered in January through July. The tax revenues in January through August of made 15.6 % of GDP (without the single social tax).

The expenditures for the servicing of the public debt in January through August of 2002 made 2.4 % of GDP. As concerns the fulfilled funding, the expenditures in the first nine months of 2002 made 18.2 % of GDP.

As of October l, according to the preliminary estimates, the balances of accounts on accounting the federal budget funds (without regard to the funds accumulated on personal accounts of recipients of budget funds) grew up by Rb. 65 bln. since the beginning of the year.

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999) 3.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 240,9% 218,0% 283,6% 243,5% 250% Figure 1. Rate of growth of the real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to June of 1999) 200% 180% НДС Налог на прибыль 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 2 The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

3 It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable. January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

Май Май Май Март Март Март Июль Июль Июль Июль Июнь Июнь Июнь Июнь Август Август Август Август Январь Январь Январь Апрель Апрель Апрель Ноябрь Ноябрь Ноябрь Декабрь Декабрь Декабрь Октябрь Октябрь Октябрь Февраль Февраль Февраль Сентябрь Сентябрь Сентябрь Сентябрь The dynamics of actual tax debts to the federal budget is presented in Figure 14. In October, no significant changes were registered.

Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expendit 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% ures Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expendit 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% ures Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IХ X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expendit 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% ures Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IХ Х XI XII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Expendit 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% ures Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII Taxes 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% Deficit 14,6% 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% * Без учета ЕСН Table 5.

Всего налоговых Всего поступлений Всего Всего поступлений Всего Всего поступлений поступлений в налога на прибыль в поступлений подоходного налога в налоговых налога на прибыль в консолидированный консолидированный НДС консолидированный поступлений в федеральный бюджет РФ бюджет РФ бюджет РФ федеральный бюджет РФ бюджет РФ ARIMA Сентябрь 25,2% 4,4% 6,9% 3,1% 15,2% 1,6% Октябрь 24,4% 4,3% 6,7% 3,1% 15,2% 1,6% Ноябрь 24,9% 4,4% 6,8% 3,1% 15,3% 1,6% Декабрь 25,3% 4,3% 7,2% 3,2% 15,7% 1,6% REM Сентябрь 24,9% 4,4% 7,0% 3,2% 15,2% 1,6% Октябрь 24,3% 4,2% 7,0% 3,2% 14,9% 1,5% Ноябрь 23,8% 4,2% 6,9% 3,2% 15,0% 1,4% Декабрь 24,0% 4,3% 7,0% 3,2% 15,0% 1,4% 4 Since 2001 the form of the MTC’s presentation of the respective statistical data has been changed, and the data on debts to the federal budget across all the taxes are no longer available. Since January of 2002 the practice of balancing the data on the arrears against the amount of tax surplus has been ceased. In this relation the figure presents the data on the gross unbalanced tax arrears for comparability purposes.

The level of tax revenues of the consolidated budget in January through August of 2002 somewhat decreased in comparison to the indicators observed in the period from January to July. The surplus of the consolidated budget was by 0.4 % of GDP below the level registered in the preceding year.

The estimate of tax revenues of the consolidated and federal budgets is presented in the table5. The estimate was revised as compared to the indicators presented in the preceding bulletin basing on the new data on the execution of the consolidated and federal budgets.

S. Batkibekov Monetary Policy According to the State Committee for Statistics of the RF, in September the consumer price index amounted to 100.4 percent; the main rise, 0.3 percent, occurred during the last week of the month. Prices for fruits and vegetables continued to decline: in September the price index for this commodity group was 90.percent.

Service price index grew 2.8 percent. In this group the greatest rise of 10.9 percent was marked in the sector of educational services, which is related to the beginning of the academic year. Prices for housing and communal services continue to grow as before: the rise was 2.6 percent, or 40.2 percent as compared to December 2001. Prices for non-foods were up 0.9 percent.

During the first nine months of 2002 inflation in Russian (measured by the CPI) was 10.3 percent (13.percent in the respective period of 2001). According to preliminary estimates, in October the increase in consumer prices was significantly greater than during the previous month: during the first week prices grew 0.6 percent, and the overall growth for the month is estimated to be 1.3 - 1.6 percent. In this connection it would be quite problematical for the Government to remain within the 12 - 14 percent range it had originally planned.

Figure 1. Consumer Price Index in 1,1% 1,0% 0,9% 0,8% 0,7% 0,6% 0,5% 0,4% 0,3% 0,2% 0,1% 0,0% -0,1% -0,2% In October the gold and currency reserves continued to grow, reaching US$ 45.5 billion on 18 October 2002 as compared to US$ 45.4 billion on 27 September 2002. This growth was observed only in the period before 04 October 2002 when the reserves reached another historic high of US$ 45.9 billion. As regards the subsequent decrease, one might assume that this occurred due to the Central Bank's reaction to an inflation upsurge in the beginning of the month. From the viewpoint of external debt payments October is a quiet month: plan payments did not exceed US$ 660.9 million, which is significantly lower than during the previous months.

For the description of models see the preceding bulletins.

% в неделю 8-14.4.3-9.6.1-7.7.6-12.5.11-17.2.11-17.3.25-31.3.22-28.4.20-26.5.17-23.6.15-21.7.25.2-3.3.30.7-5.8.27.8-2.9.14-20.01.13.8-19.8.28.01-3.02.08.10-14.10.31.12.01-6.1.10.9.02-16.9.24.9.02-30.9.No important occurrences were observed in the area of monetary policy in October. The Government did not take up the issue of improving the currency legislation that had been put on the agenda.

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