Section 4. The social sphere 4.1. The population’s finances and the consumer market Money incomes. In 2009, the real money incomes of the population rose by 1.9 % on 2008, while there was a significant differentiation in the dynamics of real wages and real size of pensions (see Fig.1).
An analysis of the dynamics of the real incomes of the population and the dynamics of real wages indicates that in recent years the intra-year fluctuations of these indices had not changed until September 2008. As a rule, in December, due to increased payments, real incomes and real wages would sharply rise, thus leveling off the negative effect of the slow dynamics observed early in the year that resulted from a leap of inflation in January and a slow-down in economic activity. In 2008, with real wages having declined in October - November at an average monthly rate of 1.2 %, even the traditional December rise in wages could not compensate for the negative trends of the autumn months. As a result, in Q IV 2007, real wages increased on the corresponding period of 2007 by 5.0 %, while their annual growth amounted to approximately 11. 5 %.
In 2009, for the first time in the past 10 years, the dynamics of real wages was negative with its deepest fall registered in Q III. Despite some deceleration in the decline of real wages in Q III caused by the deceleration of inflation by the end of the year and a relative stabilization of economic activity, the overall decline in real wages in 2009 amounted to 2.8 % by comparison with the previous year.
In 2009, the average nominal monthly wage amounted to 18,785 Rb, an increase of 8.5 % by comparison with the corresponding figure for 2008. There were no significant changes in the differentiation of wages. In 2009, the highest wages continued to be paid in such sectors of economic activities as pipeline transportation, financial activities and the extraction of fossil fuel resources (2.2 times higher than the Russian average), as well as the production of coke and petroleum products (2 times higher). The lowest average monthly wages continued to be paid in the textile and sewing industries; agriculture; hunting and forestry – 48 %, 53 % and % of the Russian average, respectively.
Among the positive changes in the structure of wages by type of economic activity, we can point to the continuing upward trend of wages in the social sphere – in education, health care and social services provision. In 2009, the average monthly wage of health care and social service workers amounted to 80 % of the Russian average, and that of education workers – to % thereof.
The year 2009 witnessed the emergence of a downward trend in wage arrears. Growth in arrears was first recorded in September 2008; starting from the second half-year 2009, wage arrears were on a constant decline. By the end of 2009, they amounted to 3,565 bn Rb, a significant drop from their maximum level of 8,779 bn Rb registered as of early July 2009.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 I II III IV I II III IV 2008 -----Real wages Pensions in real terms Real incomes Source: Rosstat.
Fig. 1. The dynamics of changes in the real incomes of the population, by component, in 1999 – 2009 and by quarter, in 2008 – 2009 (as a percentage of the corresponding period of a previous year) Wages account for almost 70 % of the incomes of the population and therefore exert a dominant influence on the social parameters of development. In 2009, the factor compensating for the dynamics of wages’ negative impact on the real incomes of the population was the share of social payments in the incomes of the population having risen to 14 % against 13.3 % a year earlier (Table 1). In 2008 – 2009, the relative worsening of the financial position of the pensioners by comparison with the working population came to an end. In 2009, the ratio between the average pension and the average monthly wage increased to 27 % against 24.3 % in 2008 and 22.8 % in 2007. In order to improve the financial position of the pensioners, the basic part of the labor pension was increased, from 1 March 2009 onwards, by 8.7 %; and from December 2009 onwards it was set at 2,562 Rb (an increase of 31.38 %). The insured part of the labor pension was indexed from 1 April 2009 and from 1 August 2009 onwards by 17.and 7.5 % respectively. Due to the aforesaid measures, the average monthly pension increased, in 2009, to 5,191 Rb (a 23.6 % rise on 2008), thus considerably outstripping the growth rate of consumer prices and the subsistence level of the pensioner. In real terms, pensions increased by 10.7 % in comparison with 2008. In 2009, the most visible changes in the structure of the money incomes of the population were related to the drop in property income, whose share fell by almost one third, to 4.3 %.
Section Social Sphere Table The structure of the population’s money incomes in 2008 – 2009, as % of total 2008 Quarter Quarter year year I II III IV I II III IV Money income – total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Income from entrepreneurial activities 10.3 10.2 9.6 10.4 10.7 9.7 10.5 9.3 10.1 9.Remuneration, including hidden wages 68.3 68.7 68.6 66.7 69.3 69.4 69.1 69.6 68.5 70.Social payments 13.2 13.4 12.8 12.8 13.8 14.6 14.7 14.5 15 14.Property income 6.2 5.6 7.1 8.1 4.2 4.3 3.8 4.6 4.4 4.Other types of income 2 2 1.9 2 2 2 1.9 2 2 Source: Rosstat.
In 2009, despite the adopted measures designed to increase payments for labor, pensions, benefits, and social support for individual categories of the population, the number of persons with income below the subsistence level amounted, according to preliminary data, to 19.6 mln, or 13.8 % of Russia’s total population, against 13.1 % in 2008. The results of analyzing the budgets of households indicate that in 2009 the basic indices of the income differentiation of the population remained the same as in 2008. The index of income concentration (the Gini Index) remained unchanged at 0.422; the decile dispersion ratio characterizing the extent of social differentiation was 16.7 against 16.8 in 2008. In 2009, the top 10 % of the population accounted for 31.0 % of the aggregate volume of aggregate money income (in 2008 – 31.1 %), while the bottom 10 % of the population accounted for 1.9 % (1.9 %).
Population expenditures. In 2009, the total money income of the population rose to 28,388.8 bn Rb, an increase of 12.5 % on 2008). Of that, 19,635.6 bn Rb was spent by the population on the purchase of commodities and services, a 5 % rise on the previous year. The volume of savings was estimated at 5,602.3 bn Rb, a rise of 1.67 times from the previous year.
In 2009, the dynamics and structure of household expenditures were considerably influenced by inflation. Over-the-year consumer inflation amounted to 108.8 % against 113.3 % in 2008. As a result of the influence of various factors on the dynamics of prices, the structure of inflation underwent considerable changes. The moderate growth in food prices observed since November 2008 can be explained both by the decrease in the effective demand of the population and by the clear interest of trading companies and establishments in restraining the price rise in order to accelerate money turnover in conditions of credit shortage. The dynamics of prices for non-food commodities was influenced by the rising real exchange rate of the ruble and by the drop in imports. The price index of food commodities amounted to 106.1 % against 116.5 % in 2008, while that of non-food commodities - to 109.7 % against 108.0 % in 2008.
The transformation of price ratios brought about a change in consumer behavior (Table 2).
The share of monetary means spent on purchases of commodities and services remained at a relatively low level; it amounted to 69.2 % against 74.1 % a year earlier, while the share of expenses on the purchase of commodities amounted to 53.6 % against 57.9 % in 2008.
In 2009, the incomes of the population displayed moderate growth, and the largest share of expenditures was accounted for by purchases of food commodities and articles of prime necessity. As a result, in 2009 the proportion of food commodities, including beverages and tobacco products, in the structure of retail trade turnover rose to 48.6 % (or by 1.8 pp). It exceeded the figure for the same period of 2008, while the share of non-food commodities correspondingly decreased.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table The structure of the expenditure of the money incomes of the population, as % Of that, spent on including on Growth purchases making Of that, (+), reducMoney of com- manda- kept on Purchase tion (-) in inpurchases purchases modities tory pay- savings deposit and of foreign currency in comes of com- of serand ser- ments and invested in currencies hands of modities vices vices contribu- securities public tions Q I 100 77.1 59.7 17.4 12.1 8.3 +2.7 6.9 –4.Q II 100 71.8 55.7 16.1 12.3 7.2 +6.4 4.7 +4.Q III 100 74.4 58.1 16.3 12.6 4.6 +1.7 5.7 +2.Q IV 100 73.6 58.4 15.2 12.0 2.2 –9.2 13.7 –1.Year 100 74.1 57.9 16.2 12.3 5.3 0.0 7.9 +0.Q I 100 76.3 58.8 17.5 11.3 8.7 –2.7 10.3 –6.Q II 100 66.6 51.3 15.3 10.4 17.1 +6.3 3.5 +2.Q III 100 70.2 54.2 16.0 11.4 12.9 +2.4 6.0 –0.Q IV 100 65.3 51.3 14.0 10.6 16.8 +8.5 3.5 +3.Year 100 69.2 53.6 15.6 10.9 14.2 +4.1 5.5 +0.Source: Rosstat.
Over 2009, the turnover of the food commodities market dropped by 2.5 %, while that of the non-food commodities market – by 8.3 % (2). There was also one positive trend that should be noted: starting in May, retail trade turnover began to grow month-to-month.
25,20,15,10,5,0,I II III IY I II III IY -5,2008 2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -10,-15,Turnover of food commodities Turnover of non-food commodities Paid services rendered to population Retail trade turnover Source: Rosstat.
Fig. 2. The dynamics of the turnover of retail trade and paid services rendered to the population in 2000 – 2009 and by quarter in 2008 – 2009, as a percentage of the corresponding quarter of a previous year Section Social Sphere It should be noted that the year 2009 was characterized by an increase in the population’s propensity to save money, which can be seen as a precautionary measure in crisis conditions.
People used various instruments for safekeeping their incomes. If in Q I 2009 10.3 % of the money incomes of the population was spent on purchasing of foreign currencies, in Q 4 this figure dropped to 3.5 %, while the proportion of savings kept on deposit and invested in securities rose to 8.5 % of the money incomes of the population, against the lowering of their share to -2.7 % at the beginning of the year. In Q III 2009, expenditures for purchases of foreign currency climbed to 6.0 % of the money incomes of the population, while the share of savings kept on deposit and invested in securities declined to 1.9 %.
Over 2009, the share of savings in the money incomes of the population amounted to 14.2 % against 5.3 % in the previous year, including those kept on deposit and invested in securities – to 4.1 %.
The dynamics of the savings of the population was considerably influenced by the level of inflation, the periodically emerging problems with liquidity, fluctuations of the exchange rate of the ruble and negative phenomena on the real estate market (less housing being put into operation, growth in mortgage interest rates, etc.). By the results of the first three quarters of 2009, the population’s investments in share construction dropped to 37.6 bn Rb against 66.6 bn Rb in the same period of the previous year.
It should be noted that, in spite of the crisis, one of the main uses of savings continues to be purchasing of real estate and the improvement of housing conditions. These spending propensities of the population have had a certain effect on the current downward trend in arrears on housing and mortgage credits that has been observed since Q II 2009. This trend is also contributed to by the banks’ toughening their credit policy. In 2008, the volume of credits granted by credit institutions to physical persons for the purpose of housing purchases amounted to 655.2 bn Rb and 103.2 bn Rb in foreign currencies, including mortgage credits in the amount of 555.4 bn Rb and 95.1 bn Rb in foreign currencies. The interest rate on housing and mortgage credits In January – November 2009, the volume of housing credits amounted to 140.bn Rb and 9.5 bn Rb in foreign currencies. In January – November 2009, the interest rate of housing and mortgage credits rose to 14.8 and 14.6 %, respectively, against 13.0 and 12.9 % in 2008.
The results of the opinion polls carried out by the Russian Statistics Service in Q IV indicated that consumer expectations had become more optimistic.
4.2. The Migratory Situation Migration continues to play a prominent role in Russia’s social and demographic situation.
As a result of a significant drop in the natural population decrease (from 362 thousand persons in 2008 to 249.4 thousand persons in 2009) and the relative stability of the migration growth rate (at the level of 250 – 270 thousand persons), in 2009, for the first time in 15 years, Russia had its natural population decrease fully compensated for by its increase through migration.
This undoubtedly remarkable fact – which occurred, in addition to everything else, during a crisis period – obviously requires some explanation.
Firstly, in accordance with the existing rules that serve as a basis for keeping the current migration records in Russia and the naturalization procedures,1 migration-driven population First, a temporary residence permit; then residence permit; and then citizenship of the Russian Federation.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks increase is now being contributed to by those migrants who have actually arrived in this country (and who have been staying in its territory) a few years ago. Since 2007, the number of persons arrived has included those migrants who obtain registration for a period of one year or more, as well as those who have for the first time obtained a temporary residence permit. In this connection, a certain part of migrants are still entered in the statistics twice; for example, these are migrants from certain countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus) who can register shortly after their arrival and then, within the same year, register again after having received Russian citizenship three months after their entry in this country1.
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