It should be noted that regional occupational proportions lack clear understanding not only in Rus sia, where the labor market is not very flexible as yet. УAscertaining labour scarcity for each and every occupation at specific points in time, and for each region within a country, is difficult, so that governments inevitably use simple labour market tests and allow agencies considerable latitude in administering labour market based migration policies. In some cases, the government takes a lais sez faire approach.Ф See: Towards a fair deal for migrant workers in the global economy. Report VI.
International Labor Conference, 92nd Session, 1 17 June 2004, International Labor Office. Geneva, p. 118.
By the way, it should be noted that although at present it is only one sphere of activities, perhaps in the future the number of such spheres will increase. At least the respective Resolution (No. 683) permits to advance proposals aimed at the limitation of foreign employees in other sectors of the economy as well.
See, for instance: Dyatlov V., Kuznetsov R. СShankhaiТ v tsentre Irkutska. Ekologiya kitaiskogo rynka (СShanghaiТ in the center of Irkutsk. Ecology of the Chinese market / Baikalskaya Sibir: iz chego skladyvayetsya stabilnost (Baikal Siberia: what is stability composed of) / Editorial board: V. I.
Dyatlov, S. A. Panarin, M. Ya. Rozhansky Ц M.; Irkutsk: Natalis, 2005. p.p. 166 Prinuditelnyi trud v sovremennoi Rossii: nereguliruyemaya migratsiya i torgovlya lyudmi (Forced labour in the Russian Federation today: irregular migration and trafficking in human beings). M.: ILO, 2004. p. 52.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks - from 1 to 2 million people will loose their jobs and will have to flow to other sec tors of the economy, return to their countries of origin, or become illegal aliens;
- due to the fact that until now in Russia, similarly to other East European coun tries, foreign employees have been primarily concentrated in only two sectors Ц trade and construction Ц the measures aimed to close one of these sectors for migrants should trigger massive redistribution processes on the labor market;
- even if it is assumed that local population really begins to sell goods at markets (the development, in which the RussiaТs citizens do not strongly believe them selves, basing on the evidence presented by the data published by VTsIOM12), it will require a whole army of handlers of goods, assistant workers, sorters of merchandize, and other unskilled laborers, which could be even harder to em ploy among the local population than vendors.
Among the main positive developments there should be mentioned the legally set option for employers or contactors of works (services) to attract and use for eign workers arriving from visa free countries without permits for attraction of for eign employees on notification basis. It means that employees entering Russia without visas become free agents and will be able relatively free compete with the local residents for jobs, what, in the end, should prevent declines in the prices of labor in certain spheres of activities and result in a rise in labor productivity.
However, the stipulations set by the УRules, under which executive agencies should determine the requirements for attraction of foreign employees and forma tion of quotas for labor activities performed by foreign citizens in the Russian Fed eration,Ф in accordance with which employers should submit applications informing the respective regional agencies about their needs for foreign employers for the next year until May 1 of the current year, will still make the life of employers difficult.
The exactly same time Ц until May 1 of the current year Ц employers will have to ad just their applications.
At last, it should be noted that in 2007, the first year of enforcement of the new migration legislation, the most important thing will be the lack of clear and trans parent procedures governing registration of migrants, issuance of work permits and developed rules and regulations rather than changes in the respective legisla tive framework.
Materials of a collective study УTransformatsiya postsovetskogo prostranstva: otrazheniye v migrat siyakhФ (Transformation of the Post Soviet Space: Its Reflection in Migrations) (2002 Ц 2005) (Grant No. 980 0789 3 of the Ford Foundation) of the Center for Migration Studies, in which the author took part as a contractor.
Almost half of RussiaТs citizens (47 per cent) state that they either are ready to take jobs resulting from the restrictions concerning the right of foreigners to work at markets and vending kiosks, or know people, who could take such jobs (36 per cent). However, 40 per cent of respondents stated that they do not know personally any RussiaТs citizens ready to take such jobs. Seven per cent of respondents do not believe that RussiaТs citizens will be able to efficiently replace foreigners at mar kets. This national poll was conducted by VTsIOM on November 25 and 26 of 2006. There were polled 1600 people in 153 localities situated in 46 oblasts, krais and Republics of the Russian Fed eration. The statistical error of the survey is below 3.4 per cent.
Section Social Sphere The second main objective of the new Russian migration policy will be the at traction of compatriots for permanent residence in the country. The CIS member countries should become the main donor of this process, although the adopted documents concern also other territories. It is planned to implement the adopted Program of voluntary migration of fellow countrymen within three years. The Pro gram envisages facilitation of resettling of 300 families in 12 selected УpilotФ re gions (the Primorsky, Khabarovsk and Krasnoyarsk krais, as well as the Amur, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, Tyumen, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Tambov, Tver, and Kaliningrad oblasts). The recipient regions are divided into three categories: Уa,Ф УbФ and Уc,Ф depending on their social, economic and demographic situations; respectively, mi grants are eligible for different terms of assistance. For the implementation of the Program there are provided rather significant resources amounting to Rub. 17 bil lion. At the same time, the only direct benefit is a fast granting of citizenship free of bureaucratic barriers. Besides, the government compensates expenditures borne with respect to travel to the new place of residence, payment of the state duty for official registration, provides a compensation package, for which members of the Migration Program are eligible (services of preschool, school and professional education, social amenities, health care and employment service), resettlement benefits (for migrants to regions of the УaФ and УbФ categories13), monthly allow ances provided in the case migrants have no earnings for the first six months of residence in regions of the УaФ category).
As it follows from the adopted documents, the government does not guaran tee employment and housing to migrants. These issues should be (but not neces sarily) solved in the framework of regional resettlement programs. On the one hand, such an approach offers migrants an opportunity to solve economic prob lems they face, does not provide grounds for excessive expectations, which could not be satisfied, and can become one of indirect criteria for selection of migrants:
no compatriots from economically and socially inactive groups of the population will not migrate on such terms. Besides, such measures should prevent complaints on the part of local residents, since the traditionally most important issue in Rus sia Ц the housing problem Ц is not solved in the framework of this Program by giving priority to migrants. On the other hand, in the situation, where the contingent of the most mobile population of the Republics of the former Soviet Union has already left these territories, whereas those remaining in the CIS member countries have al ready adapted to the changed political conditions existing in the former Republics, where are observed no armed conflicts and economies are mostly developing at rates exceeding those observed in Russia, the measures envisaged by the Program can prove to be insufficient to motivate people resettle to Russia. In this case, the measures envisaged by the Program can fail to attain its objectives.
The Head of the RF Federal Migration Service, K. Romodanovsky, whose or ganization was vested with the development and implementation of the Program, has published the estimates concerning the inflow of compatriots in the framework For the people migrating to regions of УaФ category this amount should make Rub. 100 thousand, for migrants to regions of УbФ category this amount should make Rub. 70 thousand.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks of the Program: up to 50 thousand persons in 2007, up to 100 thousand persons in 2008 and up to 150 thousand persons in 200914. Thus, the estimated inflow should make about 300 thousand people over three years15. At the same time, the imple mentation of the Program, however well it is thought out, can encounter two seri ous difficulties: the unwillingness of the new independent states, which also face demographic problems (at present or in the future), to let go their citizens wishing to migrate to Russia, and the growing phobias of the Russian population with re spect to migrants and certain ethnic groups. As yet, state institutions has not clearly thought out and designed the policies they should pursue with respect to promotion of the Program concerning the attraction of compatriots, development of a campaign against anti migrants attitudes of the Russian society and the over coming of their own imperial mentality resulting in the firm belief that if Russia wishes it, millions of former Soviet citizens will flow to the country.
4.3.3. Dynamics and structure of migration flows The official data characterizing migration processes provide evidence that the number of migrants is insufficient to compensate for the natural decline in the size of the RussiaТs population not to mention the future decrease in the able bodied population group.
According to the data presented by Rosstat, the size of the RussiaТs resident population made 142.3 million people as on November 1, 2006, thus declining by 479.6 thousand people, or 0.34 per cent, over the first 10 months of 2006 (in com parison with the figures registered as on the respective date of the preceding year, the size of the RussiaТs population fell by 615.5 thousand people, or 0.43 per cent).
In January through October of 2006, the natural decline in the size of the population made 114.3 thousand people in comparison with the figures registered in the re spective period of 2005. The migration based increase in the population compen sated the decline by 18.1 per cent.
The data presented in Fig. 1 demonstrate that since 1992, when the natural decline in the size of the countryТs population was first observed, the amount of mi gration based increase permitted to compensate for the natural depopulation processes only in 1994. Year 2006 was not an exception among the last years, when migration only slightly smoothed negative demographic processes. An insig nificant increase in the migration component in the compensation for the natural decline observed in 2006 was generated not by a growth in the number of migrants seeking permanent residence in Russia (this figure amounted for 4.7 per cent as compared with the data registered in 2005), but primarily due to a decline in the documented emigration from the country (which decreased by 24.2 per cent).
Vandysheva O. Glava FMS Konstantin Romodanovsky uveren, chto migranty dlya Rossii Ц blago (Konstantin Romodanovsky, the head of the Federal Migration Service, is sure that migrants are an asset for Russia) // Komsomolskaya Pravda. December 29, 2006.
For comparison purposes it should be noted that according to a Rosstat forecast for years through 2009 the natural population decline will be up to 2340.5 thousand people.
Section Social Sphere ---Natural increase Migration based increase Note: the data for year 2006 are the authorТs estimates, which take into account the data for the pe riod from January through February of 2006 as adjusted for the data for the period from November through December of 2005.
Source: Information on the social and economic situation of Russia in 2006, http://www.gks.ru Fig. 1. Components of the total increase in the size of RussiaТs population, 1989 through 2006 (in thous. persons) Immigration In the early and mid 1990s, Russia was among the leading countries as con cerns the number of migrants flowing in the country. Over the last decade, this situation has significantly changed. According to the official data, in 2006 only no more than 185 thousand migrants entered the country, what was 3.5 times below the level registered 10 years ago and more than 6 time below the record high fig ures observed in 1994, the peak year in terms of migration to Russia from the CIS member countries and the Baltic States. The decline in the number of people mi grating to Russia in the 2000s is determined by significant factors of economic, po litical and administrative nature: stabilization of the political situation and waning of active conflicts observed in the former Soviet Republics, which accounted for a mass inflow of forced migrants to Russia in the 1990s; a gradual decline in the Уdif ference of economic capacitiesФ of the other countries of the former Soviet Union and Russia; a decrease in the number of people ready to migrate to Russia; more tough and complicated nature of the Russian legislative framework as concerned granting of citizenship and permanent residence, as well as registration proce dures. An important factor was a gradual reassessment of the dominant forms of migration Ц reorientation from permanent migration to temporary labor migration, at least, as concerned the use thereof as a tentative (assessment, auxiliary) stage prior to permanent migration.
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