2007 4.97% 5.02% 5.00% 5.13% 5.3% 2010 5.15% 5.08% 5.07% 5.00% 5.2% 2018 5.90% 5.65% 5.67% 5.76% 5.7% 2028 6.18% 6.02% 6.08% 6.12% 6.1% 2030 5.67% 5.47% 5.50% 5.62% 5.6% Interbank credit-MIACR rate (% per annum at end 12.13% 8.50% 4.25% 8.86% 6.31% of month) on 1-day loans official rouble to US dollar exchange rate at end of 28.4244 28.7312 28.7825 28.1207 28.month (RUR/USD) official rouble to euro exchange rate at end of 34.5300 33.9890 34.1850 34.0373 33.month (RUR/EUR) change in the official rouble/US dollar exchange -0.26% 1.08% 0.18% -2.30% 0.01% rate in one month (%) change in the official rouble/euro exchange rate in -0.43% -1.57% 0.58% -0.43% -2.08% one month (%) RTS stock market turnover in one month (in mln 1045.18 778.05 683.99 1095.19 886.US dollars, for shares on the RTS index list) RTS-1 index at end of month 934.99 1037.26 1125.60 1315.96 1453.change in RTS-1 index in one month (%) -7.22% 10.94% 8.52% 16.91% 10.45% * Estimate D. Polevoy Investment in Real Sector of Economy In the current year there is observed a trend to overcome the tendency to reduction of the rates of growth of investments in the fixed assets. Under the influence of expanding production and the growth of national demand, which is getting ahead of it, whereas the financial resources of manufacturers are being expanded, the growth of investments in the first half-year 2006 made 10.8 per cent as opposed to 8.9 per cent in the relevant period of the preceding year.
A tendency of a slow-down of the growth rate of investments in the fixed assets is observed in the year 2006. Under the influence of expanding production and the growth of national demand, which is getting ahead of it, whereas the financial resources of manufacturers are being expanded, the growth of investments in the first half-year 2006 made 10.8 per cent as opposed to 8.9 per cent in the relevant period of the preceding year. Against the background of intensive growth of GDP the share of investments in the fixed assets made 13.1 percent, 06 percentage points less than the indicator of the preceding year.
In the current year the changes in the structure of investments in terms of financial sources were caused by an increased inflow of funds. In the situation of economic growth the Russian market is getting more attractive to national and foreign banks. One should note that in the first half-year the share of the Russian banks in the investment process has been increased by 7.1 per cent, 2.0 percentage points higher than the level of the preceding year.
In the environment of a steady growth of revenue from oil and gas export sales and due to the investment rating gained by Russia, it is reasonable for international banks to maintain high rates of investments in their diversification activities. According to the results of the first half-year 2006, foreign banks’ credits made 2.2 per cent in the structure of financial sources of investments against 0.per cent made in the previous year. The share of foreign investments in the first half-year 2006 made 6.5 per cent of the total volume of investments in the fixed assets against 4.5 per cent made in the relevant period of the year 2005. As of the end of June of the year 2006 the volume of accumulated foreign capital was $ 128.0 billion. The net inflow of foreign capital in the first half-year 2006 made $11.4 billion as compared with $ 3.9 billion in the first half-year 2005.
In the first half-year 2006 there were made 41.9 percent more of foreign investments in the Russian economy than in the relevant period of the preceding year, including direct investments, grown by 43.3 percent. The tendency of the direct investments growth reflects the reaction of foreign investors to enhancement of the investment climate components.
The share of budgetary assets in the structure of financial sources made 15.2 per cent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the relevant indicator of the preceding year, whereas a steady growth of federal budget share in investments is observed against the background of restrained participation of the Subjects of Federation.
In the federal budget of the year 2006 it is envisaged to provide financing to the Federal Targeted Investment Program in the amount of RUR 318,95 billion (including national defense order in the amount of RUR 64.3 billion). The effectiveness of the national expenditure for investments in many ways depends on the changes in the investment structure with the aim to ensure energy sector safety, modernization of energy sector infrastructure, development of manufacturing infrastructure and strengthening of competitive power of the Russian economy. With regard to the new targeted programs and development of public-private business cooperation, national expenditures for investments, including the Investment fund and investment share of national projects, will make in the year about 2 per cent of GDP, as estimated by the Ministry of Economic Development. According to Rosstat, the level of the scope of financing for construction sites and objects for national needs throughout January-July of 2006 made RUR 50.3 billion, i.e. 34.9 percent of the budget allocated for the year. Out of the total amount of funds envisaged by the Targeted Federal Investment Program for the construction sites and objects for federal national needs in 2006, the national clients have spent in January-June RUR 42.8 billion, or 29.6 per cent of the year budget limit, allocated for construction of those objects.
Table Structure of Investments in the Fixed Assets as per Financial Sources in First Half-Years of 2004 - 2006.
(Excluding Small Businesses and Parameters of Informal Business) 2004 2005г Investments in the fixed assets, 100 100 including a break-down by sources of investment:
Own capital 48.6 47.2 47.among them:
net profit of enterprises, left at their disposal 17.3 19.4 20.depreciation 24.9 22.4 23.Inflow of funds 51.4 52.8 53.among them:
bank credits 7.3 6.0 9.foreign banks’ loans 1.1 0.9 2.loans from other organizations 6.0 9.7 7.budget funds 16.2 17.1 15.including:
funds from Federal Budget 4.2 5.0 4.funds from the Subjects of the Russian Federation 11.2 11.1 9.Share of foreign investments in the total amount of investments in the fixed assets 4.5 7.0 6.Source: Rosstat Reviewing the investment activities, it is extremely important to make an analysis in terms of the types of economic activities. According to the results of the first half-year 2006, the dominant share of investments in the industries was made in the mineral extraction (19.5 per cent).
It should be noted that against the background of high prices for hydrocarbons, but a low level of investments inflow and diversification of growing revenue from export sales in upgrading, development and modernization of enterprises for natural resources extraction and refinement, a negative effect is provided on the indicators of economic growth. While in metallurgy simultaneous rise of the investments growth rates was observed in mining (110.6 per cent) and processing enterprises (108.per cent), one of the acute problems of the fuel and energy enterprises is the low investment activity in the oil industry (102 per cent by the half-year 2005).
In comparison with the preceding year, the share of investments in extraction of energy resources have been raised by 2 percentage points due to the growth of investments in the extraction of raw oil and natural gas (by 26.8 per cent).
After slow dynamics of the years 2004-2005 a break-though of investment activity has provided a recovery effect and was initiated by an acute necessity of immediate actions for solving such problems as depletion of resources of mature oil and gas deposits and infrastructure restrictions. Thus, OAO “GAZPROM” has reacted to this situation by the increase of the scope of their investment program for the year 2006 by RUR 63.04 billion; bringing its level to RUR 373.14 billion. Additional capital investments are supposed to be made in upgrading of En-Yakhinsk, Zapolyarny, Yuzhno-Russky, Bovanensky deposits and the system of pipelines between Bovanenkovo and Ukhta, as well as in a series of new construction developments for renovation of the Unified System of Gas Supply (USGS).
Diversification of investments inflow in transportation infrastructure is characterized by a special attention to the development of the system of transportation of oil, oil products and gas. The growth of investments in pipelines made in the first half-year 2006 came up to 38.9 per cent, their share in the total volume of investments in the fixed assets of the economy in general is 9.9 per cent, as opposed to 7.3 per cent in the same periods of the year 2005 and 6.7 per cent in 2004. The Federal Law “On Concession Agreements” is specially addressed to the issues of attracting of private investments in development of transportation infrastructure, acceleration of modernization of transportation system, energy sector and housing and utilities system.
It should be emphasized, that in the conditions of extremely favorable situation in the market of raw materials and dynamic growth of the exporter’s revenues, one could expect much higher indices.
However, the disproportion in financial resources of investments in mineral extraction and processing, high cost of commercial credits, absence of effective and reliable ways of allocation of personal savings and protection thereof from inflation and dishonest companies accumulating the funds, underdeveloped stock market and institutions for joint investments – are the factors that restrain business activity in capital construction.
Changes in the Structure of Investments in Capital Assets with a Break-down by Types of Economic Activities within the First Half-Years 2004- 2006, % versus the Relevant Period of Preceding Year транспорт строительство производство транспортных средств и оборудования производство машин и оборудования химическое производство целлюлозно-бумажное производство;
текстильное и швейное производство 2006-2005 2005- обрабатывающие производства добыча полезных ископаемых -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Mineral resources extraction Extraction of fuel and power resources Processing industries Textile and clothing manufacture Food production Wood processing and manufacture of wooden items Pulp and paper manufacture Coke and oil production Chemical production Manufacture of vehicles and equipment Production and distribution of electric power, gas and water Construction Wholesale and retail trade, vehicles maintenance Transport In the first half-year 2006 the growth of investments in processing industries made 105.2 per cent against 112.4 per cent in the relevant period of the year 2005. The changes in the structure of investments in processing industries happened due to an increase of investment activity in production of intermediate demand commodities: in chemistry (investments index made 135.4 per cent), pulp and paper industry (156.3 per cent), coke production (135.4 per cent), in production of cast-iron and steal pipes (150.7 per cent), non-ferrous metals (132.9 per cent), in metallurgy (108.8 per cent).
The investment situation in the sector of the products of final demand in the first half-year 2006 is characterized by a decrease of investments in production of food products by 2.2 per cent.
Difficulties with the selection of strategy of development for industrial enterprises and insufficient pin-point support, provided to the selected enterprises, lead to unbalanced situation in the market of investment objects and strengthening of competitive capacity of foreign goods. In machinery and equipment manufacturing industry an increase of the investment rates is noted by 63.7 per cent in comparison with the first half-year 2005, and in the manufacture of vehicles and equipment a decrease is observed by 14.1 per cent against the background of reduced competitiveness in terms of prices.
In the current state of the structure of the national investment products the import remains one of the major sources of renovation of capital assets, upgrading and modernization of manufacturing industry.
Investments in imported equipment in the first half-year 2006 made 20.9 per cent of the total volume of investments in machinery, equipment and vehicles.
To provide incentives for realization of the large infrastructure and innovation projects in the framework of private-public sectors cooperation mechanisms, the Government has initiated the formation of the Investment Fund for joint financing of investment projects, implemented jointly by national and private business. In conformity with the perspective financial plan for 2006-2008, the volume of the Investment Fund in 2006 will make RUR69.7 billion, in 2007 – RUR110.6 billion.
By now the Government Committee has approved seven investment projects. The purpose of the Project of integrated development of the lower Angara area is to improve the industrial capacity of the area: to finalize the construction and put in production Boguchansk hydraulic power station, a large aluminum plant, pulp and paper plant, gas refining plant. The purpose of building of refineries and gas-processing plants complex in Nizhnekamsk is to produce petrochemical products, which will replace the imported ones. The investment project of mineral and raw materials exploration in aimed at exploring of five complex ore deposits in the south-east of Chita area (deposits of copper, gold, silver, zinc, molybdenum, etc.); construction of four mining-and-processing integrated works, development of transportation infrastructure, extended employment opportunities.
The above-said integrated projects are implemented on the basis of joint financing: the Government provides the funds from the Investment fund for transportation and power infrastructure of the Projects (construction of highways and railways, electric power lines, bridges, which will stay in public property), the businesses will invest in the construction of industrial objects. The share of public finances, allocated for the seven selected objects, which is RUR 164.3 billion, makes only 25 per cent of the total amount of expenditures of RUR 667.7 billion.
In the nearest future special economic zones, which will be created on the territory of the Russian Federation, will serve as an advanced mechanism to encourage investments in the processing industries and innovation sectors of economy. The legislation provides tax and customs benefits, comfortable infrastructure and soft measures of administrative control, which will contribute to attraction of investments in the processing industries.
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