This section is based on research published by the Zenit bank, the ATON investment company, MICEX (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange), the Russian Central Bank, and on Russian issuers’ official websites.
Minfin bonds' yields to maturity in July - September 6.5% Tranche 5 Tranche 8 Tranche 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% Fig 2.
Yields to maturity of the Russian eurobonds with maturity in 2030, 2018 and 2007 in July - September 6.8% USD-2030 USD-2007 USD-6.5% 6.3% 6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.3% 5.0% On 13 August an auction for the placement of OFZ-AD series 46018 was held. The issue volume was 10bln roubles, demand for the bonds at a market value amounted to 27.33bln roubles. As a result, 03.07.05.07.07.07.11.07.13.07.17.07.19.07.21.07.25.07.27.07.31.07.02.08.04.08.08.08.10.08.14.08.16.08.18.08.22.08.24.08.29.08.31.08.04.09.06.09.08.09.12.09.14.09.18.09.20.09.22.09.26.09.03.07.07.07.12.07.17.07.20.07.25.07.28.07.02.08.07.08.10.08.15.08.18.08.23.08.29.08.01.09.06.09.11.09.14.09.19.09.22.09.27.09.a total of 8.89bln roubles' worth of bonds were placed, with an average weighted yield of 6.7% per annum.
As of 27 September, the GKO-OFZ market amounted to 837.88bln roubles at face value and to 833.08bln roubles at market value. The duration of the GKO-OFZ market portfolio was 1979.82 days.
Equity market Share market overview Throughout September the Russian stock market was falling. In the absence of significant news domestically, the main factor behind the fall was a drop in prices on the world commodity markets. In August oil prices fell by about 15%, thus becoming a considerable negative factor for the Russian market, where the share of oil sector stocks is rather high. The second week in September also showed a fall in the market. By that time the falling oil prices were joined by other factors. In particular, US economic statistics revealed a certain slowdown in growth; the political situation in Brazil, Hungary, Poland and Thailand was unstable, which may have affected investors' interest in other emerging markets. In those circumstances western investors tried to withdraw funds from emerging markets, which further exacerbated the situation. A reduction in rouble liquidity – caused both by the end of the quarter and the need to make tax payments as well as a drop in export revenues against the continued fall in oil prices - put an additional pressure on the market.
160 1 800.150 1 725.The total volume of trading ($) 140 1 650.The RTS Index 130 1 575.120 1 500.110 1 425.100 1 350.90 1 275.80 1 200.70 1 125.60 1 050.50 975.40 900.30 825.20 750.10 675.600.From 1 to 27 September 2006 the RTS index fell by 6.23% down to 1519.06 points (a fall of 100.points). In the same period the volume of trading in RTS shares amounted to about $642.27mln at an average daily turnover of $33.8mln (about $941mln at an average daily turnover of $40.95mln in August). Thus in September investor activity on the stock market was considerably lower than in August.
The highest and lowest RTS turnover in September were $65.98mln (on 12 September) and $13.52mln (on 19 September), respectively.
In the period from 31 August to 27 September the majority of blue chips suffered a downward trend. The biggest losers were Yukos shares whose value by the end of the month dropped by 26.8%.
They were followed by Tatneft and Sibneft shares which in the same period fell by 19.08 and 15.66%, respectively. A slightly slower fall was shown by Gazprom (-11.97%), NorNikel (-11.19%), Surgutneftegas (-10.2%) and LUKoil (-10.04%). Mosenergo shares lost about 3.87% in their value in Sep points mln US dollars s 01.08.17.08.02.09.20.09.06.10.24.10.10.11.28.11.22.214.171.124.25.01.10.02.01.03.20.03.05.04.21.04.11.05.29.05.15.06.03.07.19.07.04.08.22.08.07.09.25.09.tember, Sberbank of Russia – a mere 1.41%. RAO UES of Russia, Rostelekom and Rosneft shares went up by 0.34, 4.21 and 5.83%, respectively.
Dynamics of the Russian Blue Chips from August 31 to September 27, 15.0% 0.0% -15.0% -30.0% Change in price (%) In September, RTS turnover6 leaders were: RAO UES of Russia (12.9%), Gazprom (12.8%), and LUKoil (7.9%). On the basis of weekly trading, the list of turnover leaders also featured Rosneft, Surgutneftegas, NorNikel and Polyus Zoloto shares.
In terms of capitalization, as of 31 August the top five leaders of the domestic share market were7:
Gazprom - $279.63bln, LUKoil – $72.34bln, Surgutneftegas – $52.32bln, Sberbank of Russia – $41.29bln, RAO UES of Russia – $30.58bln, NorNikel – $25.77bln.
Futures and options market In September investor activity on the RTS futures and options market (FORTS) slightly went down as compared with August. From 1 to 27 September the total turnover on the RTS futures and options market amounted to approximately 218.7bln roubles (408,200 transactions; 7.3mln contracts) against 244.43bln roubles (485,360 transactions; 7.89mln contracts) in August.
The greatest demand, as before, was for futures: the volume of trading in futures in September was 190.85bln roubles (407,420 transactions; 6.53mln contracts). Options enjoyed a far lower demand, with the volume of trading at about 27.86bln roubles (12,670 transactions and 783,870 contracts). The highest amount of trading in the futures market was 15.52bln roubles (on 22 September), the lowest – 7.17bln roubles (on 19 September).
Corporate bond market On the strength of September figures, the situation on the corporate and municipal debt market slightly deteriorated, which is clear from the dynamics of the bond market indices. At the same time, throughout September quotations behaved differently. At the beginning of the month the market showed immunity to a number of moderately negative factors, including a rise in the yield of US bonds, a stronger dollar as well as high activity on the primary market. Another negative factor for the market was a rise in the August inflation above the forecast. In a situation when the Central Bank has On the classical market.
According to RTS data.
Ukos Tatneft Sibneft GMK LUKoil Rosneft Russia Gazprom Russia NorNikel RAO UES Mosenergo Rostelekom Sberbank of Surgutneftegas practically no opportunity to fight rising prices by strengthening the rouble, investors can also take into account a rise in inflation expectations, which should bring prices down.
Despite a moderately favourable situation on the foreign currency debt market, the domestic corporate debt market did not show any significant movement. Many blue chips either did not change in price or went slightly up. The situation on the primary market remained a positive factor: placements enjoyed a demand that considerably outstripped supply, thus ensuring investor interest in rouble instruments. A certain strengthening of the rouble at the end of the second week in September was also a positive factor. However later, given a low activity in the external market, corporate bonds began to fall. That was brought about by a return of the negative dynamics of the rouble against the dollar as well as a considerable growth in initial supply.
From 1 to 27 September, the price index of corporate bonds traded on MICEX8 fell by 0.06 points (0.05%), while the index of the 10 most liquid corporate bonds dropped by 0.07 points (0.06%). In the same period the total turnover on the MICEX corporate bond section amounted to 21.9bln roubles at an average daily turnover of 1.5bln roubles (about 23.64bln roubles at an average daily turnover of 1.07bln roubles in August). Thus the average daily turnover in Russian companies' corporate bonds in September went considerably up against the previous month.
Fig Dynamics of corporate bond indices 122.ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-Corp126.96.36.199.112.110.108.External factors behind Russian stock market dynamics In September the oil market dynamics became the top external economic factor. Negative trends that began in late August continued to dominate the market throughout September. Oil prices were falling, driven by Iran's statements on readiness to start talks on its nuclear programme and by an increase in US oil and oil reserves.
The situation on the world stock markets in September remained on the whole favourable (see Table 1). The main indicators on both developed and emerging markets were rising, with the exception of the RTS index and the securities indices of Japan and Brazil.
The calculation was based on indices of corporate bonds traded on MICEX. The indices were produced by the Zenit bank.
260% Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ Composite The RTS Index 240% 220% 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Table World stock market indices Change since Aug Change since Jan As of 27 September Value 06 (%)9 06 (%) RTS (Russia) 1519.06 -6.62% 27.62% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 11689.24 2.71% 7.76% NASDAQ Composite (USA) 2263.39 3.65% 0.88% S&P 500 (USA) 1336.59 2.51% 5.34% FTSE 100 (UK) 5930.1 0.41% 4.38% DAX-30 (Germany) 5989.71 2.22% 9.90% CAC-40 (France) 5243.1 1.51% 10.27% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 8413.1 3.00% 10.28% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 15947.87 -1.20% -2.53% Bovespa (Brazil) 36106 -0.35% 7.76% IPC (Mexico) 21748.57 3.32% 21.33% IPSA (Chile) 2266.12 2.71% 16.83% Straits Times (Singapore) 2557.9 3.04% 7.96% Seoul Composite (South Korea) 1360.03 0.54% -2.10% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 36818.73 -1.25% -7.47% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index 776.02 0.37% 9.76% Corporate news OAO Mosenergo On 19 September the placement of the company's rouble bond issue took place. The volume of the issue was 5bln roubles, the 1-6 coupon rate was 7.54%, maturity - five years. The bond issue is aimed to refinance the company's debt and to optimise its financial operations. The placement was held at the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX). On the following day, 20 September, Standard&Poor's raised Mosenergo's credit rating from B- to B, with the company's Russian rating rising from ruBBB+ to ruA-. It also issued a positive recommendation for buying the company's shares. The improvement in the rating had been caused by Mosenergo's better liquidity resulting from a successful Against the 31 August 2006 indices.
01.07.22.07.12.08.02.09.23.09.14.10.04.11.25.11.16.12.09.01.30.01.20.02.10.03.31.03.21.04.11.05.01.06.22.06.13.07.03.08.24.08.14.09.placement of a 5bln rouble bond issue. The money will be used to refinance the company's current debt. According to Standard&Poor's, Mosenergo's rating reflects the company's strong competitive advantages on the power and heat market in a rapidly developing Moscow region resulting from the combined power and heat generation as well as from technological restrictions for other power generators.
Foreign currency market From 1 to 27 September the dollar against the rouble rose by 0.0649 roubles (0.243%) and reached 26.794 roubles to a US dollar. The total volume of trading in US dollars on SELT in the same period amounted to about $39.64bln at an average daily turnover of $2.2bln (about $55.79bln at an average daily turnover of $2.54bln in August). Thus trading activity in foreign currency in September was much lower than in August. The largest amount of trading in US dollars in the given period was about $4.1bln (on 25 September), and the smallest was $920.9mln (on 4 September).
Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2005-40.39.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 38.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11.Fig 8.
Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 18.104.22.168. roubles 01.07.16.07.31.07.15.08.30.08.14.09.29.09.14.10.22.214.171.124.126.96.36.199.28.12.12.01.27.01.11.02.26.02.13.03.28.03.12.04.27.04.12.05.27.05.11.06.26.06.11.07.26.07.10.08.25.08.09.09.24.09.USD/EURO 01.07.31.07.30.08.29.09.188.8.131.52.28.12.27.01.26.02.28.03.27.04.27.05.26.06.26.07.25.08.24.09.The banking sector rouble liquidity in September suffered a considerable fall against August: the average balance on lending agencies' corresponding accounts in the Bank of Russia in September was about 354.98bln roubles against about 357.53bln roubles in August From 1 to 27 September on the world market the euro fell by $0.014 (-1.08%) down to $1.2694 to a euro. This translated into a drop in the euro against the rouble in September. From 1 to 27 September the euro/rouble exchange rate fell by 0.3454 roubles. (-1.006%) from 34.318 to 33.973 roubles to a euro. The total volume of euro trading on SELT from 1 to 27 September reached about 661.66mln euros at an average daily turnover of 36.76mln euros (810.9mln euros at an average daily turnover of 36.86mln euros in August). Thus the euro trading on the Russian foreign currency market in September was much less active than in August. The largest amount of trading in that period was 55.49mln euros (on 24 September), and the lowest – 23.12mln euros (on 11 September).
Financial market indicators/indices Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb* monthly inflation 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 2.4% 1.3% estimated annual inflation given the current month 7.44% 8.73% 10.03% 32.92% 16.8% trend Russian Central Bank refinancing rate 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% average yield to maturity for all OFZ bond issues 6.55% 6.55% 6.53% 6.04% 6.5% (% per annum) monthly turnover on the GKO-OFZ market (bln 33.04 24.58 34.80 32.33 10.roubles) Minfin bond yield to maturity at end of month (% per annum):
tranche 5 5.37% 5.26% 5.27% 5.20% 5.3% tranche 6 4.91% 4.77% 4.71% 4.50% 4.6% tranche 7 5.73% 5.29% 5.37% 5.14% 5.3% tranche 8 4.58% 4.58% 4.71% 4.38% 4.6% Eurobond yield to maturity at end of month (% per annum):
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